2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Probably Biden +2-3 in the NYT/Sienna poll. Disgusting stuff, but what do you expect? Looking forward to this rag going out of business once Biden’s president.

You alright?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

So this poll should actually underestimate Biden's support right, since they oversample R's and Trump support?

Don't try to unskew polls by party ID. It's not a sound practice.

OTOH though the only election where Republicans achieved parity with Democrats was 2004.
In every single other, since time immemorial, more self-identified Ds voted than self-identified Rs.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

So this poll should actually underestimate Biden's support right, since they oversample R's and Trump support?

Don't try to unskew polls by party ID. It's not a sound practice.

OTOH though the only election where Republicans achieved parity with Democrats was 2004.
In every single other, since time immemorial, more self-identified Ds voted than self-identified Rs.

Yes, there was a Dem edge in party ID in every single presidential election from 1932 to 2000, a tiee in 2004 and then a Dem edge again from 2008-2016.  This could be the 1st election with a Rep party ID advantage since the 1920's. 

Of course, this doesn't determine the outcome of elections by itself.  Democrats only led 10/8 over the 18 consecutive elections when they had the party ID advantage. 

[Terry the Fat Shark]

the ABC poll is in 45 mins right?

[It’s so Joever]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)
Edit: lol

[republican1993]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I hope this looks good for trump just based on the state polls + abc's track record on national polling it's spot on compared to NBC and CBS.

[Dr. Arch]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I'm still waiting on that data from yesterday to back up your claims that Biden has collapsed.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I'm really confused what this part is supposed to mean

[swf541]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I'm really confused what this part is supposed to mean

They be projecting about themselves pretty obviously

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ASETNIOP/status/1310011127955206145

[Holmes]

B+8 I guess.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Im going Biden +6. Though I think that's still too close to comfort for most Biden supporters

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ASETNIOP/status/1310011127955206145

Biden +9 h2h, +8 with third parties

[Gass3268]

They had Biden +8 on who people trust to make Supreme Court picks and a 19 margin saying the Supreme Court nomination should not take place until next year.

[WD]

What time is the poll coming out?

[It’s so Joever]

What time is the poll coming out?

Wait just got released.

[Dr. Arch]

B+8 I guess.

You undershot it, believe it or not. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

ABC/Washington Post was D+4.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

ABC/Washington Post was D+4.

Which lines up with 2016. Don't understand why the NYT/Siena polls always skew R in party ID and recalled vote.

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1310198860778790912?s=20

[Tender Branson]

MI and WI polls are annoying.

Better poll Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia more.

[Non Swing Voter]

So Biden maintains a substantial lead in both states and voters there by a wide margin want the winner of the next election to pick the SCOTUS nominee.  Seems like nothing is moving the numbers and a lot of people are already voting in Wisconsin.  Barring some epic change in the dynamics of the race it seems like Trump is going to lose both states.

[republican1993]

So Biden maintains a substantial lead in both states and voters there by a wide margin want the winner of the next election to pick the SCOTUS nominee.  Seems like nothing is moving the numbers and a lot of people are already voting in Wisconsin.  Barring some epic change in the dynamics of the race it seems like Trump is going to lose both states.

Dane county looks energized based on early voting but the MIW suburbs look energized too - i think Wisconsin will won in the southwest part whoever takes it & how trump does around the rest of the state. MIW looks slow with counting but i am curious how we will be with returning by late october

[Skye]

Cohn is on fire:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310584373222223876

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1310585473857990657?s=19