2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Zache]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1323468628789002242

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323601603249713152?s=21

Nate Bronze is not happy.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Lalala...

[Torie]

So here is a question for the host of nerds in their basement: what will be the tipping point electoral vote cohort. Will that be Wisconsin? Or. Nevada? The Omaha district? PA? My guess is Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

The surprise is that Biden did not win Florida, but few of us knew that Donald Trump would get away with the monstrous lie conflating Joe Biden with Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. It would be as bad as someone conflating Ronald Reagan with Adolf Hitler. It's the Big Lie -- tell a whopper so monstrous and with steadfast firmness that the lie is truth. Repeat it, repeat it, and repeat it... and don't discuss the reality (or lack thereof) behind it.

OK, with the Big Lie is associated with another evil man, someone even worse than Fidel Castro or Hugo Chavez. It is still monstrously wrong. The only good that comes from falsehood is art, fiction, and fantasy that mentally-healthy people recognize as necessary for fending off boredom and madness. Mentally-healthy people also know the difference between reality and fantasy or art, fiction and fact.

I can fully understand why Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans despise regimes in their ancestral countries. I am neither Cuban nor Venezuelan, and I despise the dictatorial regimes in Cuba and Venezuela, too because they stifle dissent and fcuk up their national economies. This said, I still hate someone from a land of a large portion of my ancestors. I am sure that like most German-Americans I hate Hitler and the demonic Third Reich for what they did.

Did Trump make promises to invade and 'liberate' Cuba and Venezuela? Or did he insinuate such? I don't know. One of two things could have disappointed Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans: one would be that he would do nothing because the American Armed Services would not commit the crime of military aggression. Another is that he would invade one of those countries and do great 'collateral damage'. We all know what that means: innocent people die in a war for profit.

Trump and his campaign made that message, and it resonated. Few politicians were ruthless and dishonest enough to make that message, but Trump did.


   

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Will there ever be hype for a poll again?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Not to boast.

Actually, eff it...

To boast: I told you all.

[ElectionsGuy]

Only on Atlas is there an almost 100-page thread for predicting and talking about polls that haven't been released yet. It's like a dopamine shot for election nerds.

[RJ]

Not to boast.

Actually, eff it...

To boast: I told you all.

They're still counting...

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Not to boast.

Actually, eff it...

To boast: I told you all.

They're still counting...

For my predictions anc analysis....I called the entire thing. So if you’re goin to give Nate Silver grace for his dumb nonsense in 2016 (and 2020), I expect that to be extended. I’m literally the only one who got this right.

Supposedly Trump had a 10% chance of winning. I went against every prediction, and my analysis was spot on. That’s not luck, Squre.

[Buzz]

Defund the Polls

[RJ]

For my predictions anc analysis....I called the entire thing. So if you’re goin to give Nate Silver grace for his dumb nonsense in 2016 (and 2020), I expect that to be extended. I’m literally the only one who got this right.

Supposedly Trump had a 10% chance of winning. I went against every prediction, and my analysis was spot on. That’s not luck, Squre.

I'd say right about now he has less than a 10% chance at winning.

Talk about an inflated sense of self importance! Keep talking, dude...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Defund the Polls

I don't agree with this, but I'll acknowledge it's funny.