2020 Poll Hype Thread

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Any word on when the final DMR Iowa poll is coming out?

In 2016, it was released on the Saturday before Caucuses

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I'm gonna bet the NBC poll will show a strong Klobuchar surge. Perhaps her around 15%?

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I'm gonna bet the NBC poll will show a strong Klobuchar surge. Perhaps her around 15%?

Do we know for a fact that there is one? It's not really clear what she's referring to.

Hmmm maybe you're right. Regardless, I think there'll be a poll out this weekend showing her in the mid-10's (Not counting ARG)

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Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

Breaking News: Atlas' biggest Buttigieg supporter opposes releasing poll numbers called under question by Buttigieg supporter

Shocking!

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So 10 PM pacific & 1 AM eastern?

Here's what the last Texas Tribune poll had back in October

Biden       23%
Warren     18%
Beto         14%
Sanders    12%
Buttigieg     6%
Harris         5%
Yang           4%
Klobuchar    2%
Castro         2%

I'm gonna predict Bloomberg on top or within the margin of error. He's gotta be doing great somewhere with how his national numbers have been moving.

One slight caveat is they like to poll over a week. That poll was done between October 18 - 27 and released a week later

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I'm gonna go Trump +3. If their last poll was Trump +10, I wouldn't be surprised by a 7% swing

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CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l0XruPxbVV8mBoT0mpmeLk4AmbnkIGeH/view

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%

It was Trump +4 at the start of June so expectations should probably be set low for Biden supporters.

[...]

Might just be noise but I'm guessing Biden +6.

That feeling when Biden +6 is considered "low expectations"

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I'm honestly shocked it took this long for crowdfunded election polls to become a thing.

I'd love for some polls of Maricopa County & select Texas CD polls about now

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Yeah I figure there will be obviously some. Just feels like polling has been lacking this cycle.2016 had way more polls.

Newspapers & polling firms are also fairly worse off than 4 years ago. Plus, this race is looking a lot more stagnant than 4 years ago. It seemed like Hillary & Trump's numbers were changing by the hour and the undecideds even moreso.

I'm sure we'll get a slew of polls coming daily when we get past the conventions & particularly when Biden announces his running mate. We're not even 100 days away from the election.

Everything will be alright. Just be patient

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Election Twitter's GFM fundraising effort for ME and GA is not going well anymore ...

After raising 15.000$ for a high-quality KS poll, only 929$ has come in for the ME poll so far - while 7.000$ are needed.

Election Twitter is left leaning, it makes sense they'd be more interested in polling a red state possible flip, than a blue state.

I love this talk of Election Twitter as this monolithic Borglike-being, traversing the Twitter Quadrant and avoiding the likes of Rose Twitter and BLM Twitter

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1290799946267070467?s=20

If this is true, it smalls like somewhere in Texas or IN05.

Please please please let it be in Texas

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It got released, but they didn't poll the presidential race. It was specifically a survey about COVID-19 & voting methods.


https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1291717575022452745?s=20

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Kansas poll Wednesday at 2 Pm

Very cryptic

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Anyways, should we expect any polls this weekend? Perhaps CBS?

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We're getting an 'interesting' MC poll tomorrow, if my source is correct. Buckle up folks.

Any further hints? Is this a state poll or a national one?

Believe it’s national

Didn't they just release a national poll 2-3 days ago? I guess they really needed that second opinion after Kenosha/Portland.

I'll be pessimistic and assume by 'interesting', you mean 'Trump is coming back!'.

If it's a national poll, I'll go Biden 47-45.

If it's a state poll, I'll go Trump 48-45 in Wisconsin or a tie in Minnesota.

Either way, there'll be plenty of freaking out!

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Their 8/3-4 poll had Biden 49-45.


I'll go 48-48 tie. May as well turn this board even more paranoid

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304505904528752641?s=19

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My predictions in order of how intrigued I am in the state poll

1.   NV:   Biden +1
2.   NH:   Biden +6
3.    WI:   Biden +4
4.  MN:   Biden +7

Deliberately setting myself fairly low.

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I'd hope internals have Biden leading in Beto-won TX-24. I'd find it a bigger surprise if he wasn't

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The next week is gonna be so annoying for polls. I almost think it'd be better to stymie new poll discussions until we get some conducted after this weekend

Either no one will take them seriously or we'll get 2 pages of folks telling you not to take them seriously

Ugh, now I'm thinking about after next week if a couple polls (regardless of quality) showed even minimal movement towards Trump in the swing states. After yesterday, I don't think this board (or a good chunk of it) can survive another 2 months of this election

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No DMR presidential poll results tonight either, I guess?

The night is still young!

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About time we get a deluge of GA polls. Until today, feels like we hadn't got a reputable GA poll since the DNC

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I predict Texas will be within the margin of error and no minds will be changed over whether Biden can/will flip it

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I predict Texas will be within the margin of error and no minds will be changed over whether Biden can/will flip it

TX poll has Trump +1 and people declare it likely R
PA poll has Biden +3 and people declare doom for Biden

If there's two terms that get conveniently forgotten here, depending on the mood, it's "Margin of Error" and "Swing State"

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Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

When a doomer claims it's not doomer-syndrome, it might be doomer-syndrome