Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

This isn't specific to Wisconsin but Democrats could benefit from ultra low turnout in nominally non-partisan races thanks to relatively strong statewide unions. The union vote might be in decline but the educational unions of Dane in particular still provide a solid floor of support, particularly when ultra low information voters won't just see the R or the D and cast a vote based on culture. As far as I know the Wisconsin Republicans don't really have any equivalent foundation to drive turnout in low stake elections even if they have a slight edge in a normal election year. Usually it takes either religious issues or taxes to motivate Republican turnout in the Midwest and the State Superintendent really doesn't have much to do with either.

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

This isn't specific to Wisconsin but Democrats could benefit from ultra low turnout in nominally non-partisan races thanks to relatively strong statewide unions. The union vote might be in decline but the educational unions of Dane in particular still provide a solid floor of support, particularly when ultra low information voters won't just see the R or the D and cast a vote based on culture. As far as I know the Wisconsin Republicans don't really have any equivalent foundation to drive turnout in low stake elections even if they have a slight edge in a normal election year. Usually it takes either religious issues or taxes to motivate Republican turnout in the Midwest and the State Superintendent really doesn't have much to do with either.

This 100%.

[MasterJedi]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

This isn't specific to Wisconsin but Democrats could benefit from ultra low turnout in nominally non-partisan races thanks to relatively strong statewide unions. The union vote might be in decline but the educational unions of Dane in particular still provide a solid floor of support, particularly when ultra low information voters won't just see the R or the D and cast a vote based on culture. As far as I know the Wisconsin Republicans don't really have any equivalent foundation to drive turnout in low stake elections even if they have a slight edge in a normal election year. Usually it takes either religious issues or taxes to motivate Republican turnout in the Midwest and the State Superintendent really doesn't have much to do with either.

Eastern Wisconsin is ruled by talk radio. But Kerr is basically a very moderate Dem so they weren’t going to push her.

[walleye26]

In the SD-13 special, Jagler is up by less than 7 points (with 20% of Dane’s precincts still outstanding) in a District Fitzgerald won by 18 in 2018.

[Matty]

So, would it be kind of fair to call this race a primary between a liberal democrat and a moderate/center democrat who favors some conservative education policies?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In the SD-13 special, Jagler is up by less than 7 points (with 20% of Dane’s precincts still outstanding) in a District Fitzgerald won by 18 in 2018.

He's still got a chance ? how blue are those Dane Precincts ?

[Dr. Arch]

At this point, you can easily call the superintendent race for Jill Underly.

[Nyvin]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

More or less, yes,  district 2 is literally WoW plus some of eastern WI (also Republican).   It was always going to be tough for a liberal to hold here.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

More or less, yes,  district 2 is literally WoW plus some of eastern WI (also Republican).   It was always going to be tough for a liberal to hold here.

How did he even get there in the first place ? did Walker Apointtes in liberal districts face similar challenges ?

[Roll Roons]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

More or less, yes,  district 2 is literally WoW plus some of eastern WI (also Republican).   It was always going to be tough for a liberal to hold here.

I remember Neubauer managed to win reelection in that district last spring. I don't understand how that could have possibly happened.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, would it be kind of fair to call this race a primary between a liberal democrat and a moderate/center democrat who favors some conservative education policies?

Basically, although if you look at Kerr's backers they're almost exclusively actual Republicans. And Underly is endorsed by all Democrats in Wisconsin's Congressional delegation as well as almost all Democrats in the State Legislature. The only notable Democrat to not endorse her is Gov. Evers who has issued no endorsement, likely because he cares a lot about the office being his old job and wants to be on good terms with whoever won it.

[Drew]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

More or less, yes,  district 2 is literally WoW plus some of eastern WI (also Republican).   It was always going to be tough for a liberal to hold here.

I remember Neubauer managed to win reelection in that district last spring. I don't understand how that could have possibly happened.

The Neubauer family has a political legacy in this part of the state.  That plus the favorable conditions of last year's Spring primary pushed her over.  As for the incumbent Davis, he was appointed by Evers and untested electorally in this district.

[walleye26]

In the SD-13 special, Jagler is up by less than 7 points (with 20% of Dane’s precincts still outstanding) in a District Fitzgerald won by 18 in 2018.

He's still got a chance ? how blue are those Dane Precincts ?

The Democrat, Melissa Winker, might have a tiny chance. I don’t know how many absentees are out for this race, but they will lean heavily D. Waukesha and Washington are fully in for Jagler (R) and a “Trump Conservative” candidate is pulling like 7%, pulling down the R margins. Again, I don’t know how many absentees. The Dane precincts are the Marshall, Cambridge, and parts of Deforest areas.

[Real Texan Politics]

Decision Desk called the race for Jill Underly.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/wisconsin-superintendent-of-public-instruction-election-results-plus-state-legislative-special-elections-in-ca-mo-ok-and-wi/

[Nyvin]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

[walleye26]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

MKE turnout is usually atrocious in off year elections.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Wisconsin Dems are quickly rising on the list of most impressive state parties. They seemed to have really gotten their sh*t together after the Hagedorn blunder.

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

Evergreen.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

MKE turnout is usually atrocious in off year elections.

Madison's turnout being amazing helps save the democrats.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Interesting voter coalitions.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/wisconsin-superintendent-of-public-instruction-election-results-plus-state-legislative-special-elections-in-ca-mo-ok-and-wi/

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

don't forget:

reports of [adjective] turnout in [place] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

Reports of Cold Turnout in Greenland suggest Pineapples for The Green Party

[Nyvin]

DDHQ called it for Underly (not sure why it took this long...?).

[walleye26]

I’m getting pissed with the reports in WI-SD 13. It had Waukesha listed as 100% in, then just pulled it down to 80%. Jefferson was at 100% in, now down to 95% in. Columbia county the Democrat had a 703-458 vote lead, now both those numbers went to zero for no reason.

[Drew]

AP calls it for Underly.

[Dr. Arch]

Are those numbers correct for Oconto County (70%+ for Underly)??