Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Roll Roons]

Some numbers about diversity in the state Legislature.  There are now 10 Black legislators between the senate and assembly, including one Republican.  The first Asian American Representative took office this year as well.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/new-session-brings-historic-level-of-black-representation-to-wisconsin-legislature/article_c7181e87-aef5-5a79-9e16-5d323482230a.html

There are now 41 female legislators, or about 31%, up from 34 in the last cycle.  About 2/3 are Dem, but GOP women had the most gains.

https://www.wpr.org/more-women-are-serving-wisconsin-state-lawmakers-ever?fbclid=IwAR2Hftucrq6019SfpcB1ihTmagZZ3KY47szZ_ZMJJ0M-ukJUEZZNQjU758U

I'd actually be curious to know how many black, Hispanic, Asian and LGBT+ Republican state legislators there are nationwide - I know there's an openly gay Republican assemblyman in Wisconsin.

[Drew]

It’s Spring Primary Day in WI.  We have one statewide primary which is for State Superintendent.  The top two vote-getters of the 7-candidate field will advance to the general.  There are contested GOP special primaries for SD-13 and AD-89 to fill those vacancies.  Other than that, there are various local elections for city councils, school boards, etc.  Polls close at 8 PM CT. Turnout is expected to be low, as is typical for these February primaries.  One tweet that I came across:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1361774112125943809?s=21

Keep in mind that areas in the SE corner of the state got a lot of lake-effect snow yesterday and it’s still quite cold.

Link for results, hopefully they'll put up a map like they usually do: https://wisconsinvote.org/election-results/

[Flyersfan232]

It’s Spring Primary Day in WI.  We have one statewide primary which is for State Superintendent.  The top two vote-getters of the 7-candidate field will advance to the general.  There are contested GOP special primaries for SD-13 and AD-89 to fill those vacancies.  Other than that, there are various local elections for city councils, school boards, etc.  Polls close at 8 PM CT. Turnout is expected to be low, as is typical for these February primaries.  One tweet that I came across:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1361774112125943809?s=21

Keep in mind that areas in the SE corner of the state got a lot of lake-effect snow yesterday and it’s still quite cold.

It’s not spring it February it’s a winter primary

[Drew]

WISCONSIN
Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
6.08 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 9:12 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
4,895
33.29%
NP   
Underly, Jill
3,457
23.51%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
1,904
12.95%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
1,806
12.28%
NP   
Krull, Steve
935
6.36%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
930
6.32%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
778
5.29%

Early numbers suggesting a Kerr-Underly race, with Kerr doing well in conservative areas like Waukesha, while Underly doing well in more liberal areas like Milwaukee.  This is how I figured it would shape up.

[redjohn]

Statewide turnout will probably end up at 5-9% of registered voters. Kerr has the backing of Wisconsin Republicans (and big donors outside of WI) despite her publicly claiming to be a Democrat. Wisconsin's teachers' union endorsed Underly for this primary and she's gained the support of a lot of Wisconsin's liberal establishment. The bulk of April's race between Kerr and Underly will likely be an argument on private school vouchers; Kerr is in favor of private school vouchers and Underly is against.

Turnout should be higher in April so it'll be interesting to see if Wisconsin voters finally pick a pro-vouchers superintendent after a decade of Tony Evers as superintendent.

[Drew]

Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
50 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 9:49 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
42,682
31.7%
NP   
Underly, Jill
33,099
24.58%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
16,312
12.11%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
15,990
11.88%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
10,065
7.47%
NP   
Krull, Steve
8,826
6.55%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
7,676
5.7%

Half the votes are in.  Milwaukee and Waukesha almost all in, with Dane still out.  Still looks like Kerr and Underly will advance.  Hendricks-Williams seems to have limited appeal outside of Milwaukee.  Troy Gunderson leading a few counties in Driftless, that must be where he's from.  Dane should come up big for Underly.  Let's see if it's enough to get her into 1st place.

State Senate - District 13 - GOP - Primary
72 of 89 Precincts Reporting - 80.9%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:46 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Jagler, John
5,146
57.15%
GOP   
Pridemore, Don
3,006
33.38%
GOP   
Menzel, Todd
853
9.47%

Looks like state Rep. John Jagler has this (EDIT: he's the projected winner).  Pridemore is himself a former state Rep.

State Assembly - District 89 - GOP - Primary
Summary Results
6 of 18 Precincts Reporting - 33.33%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:48 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Behnke, Elijah
574
42.52%
GOP   
Jacques, Debbie
341
25.26%
GOP   
Kunesh, Michael
229
16.96%
GOP   
Schneider, Michael
148
10.96%
GOP   
Kamps, David
58
4.3%

A wide open primary here, with Behnke leading with 1/3 of the vote in.

[redjohn]

Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
50 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 9:49 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
42,682
31.7%
NP   
Underly, Jill
33,099
24.58%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
16,312
12.11%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
15,990
11.88%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
10,065
7.47%
NP   
Krull, Steve
8,826
6.55%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
7,676
5.7%

Half the votes are in.  Milwaukee and Waukesha almost all in, with Dane still out.  Still looks like Kerr and Underly will advance.  Hendricks-Williams seems to have limited appeal outside of Milwaukee.  Troy Gunderson leading a few counties in Driftless, that must be where he's from.  Dane should come up big for Underly.  Let's see if it's enough to get her into 1st place.

State Senate - District 13 - GOP - Primary
72 of 89 Precincts Reporting - 80.9%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:46 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Jagler, John
5,146
57.15%
GOP   
Pridemore, Don
3,006
33.38%
GOP   
Menzel, Todd
853
9.47%

Looks like state Rep. John Jagler has this (EDIT: he's the projected winner).  Pridemore is himself a former state Rep.

State Assembly - District 89 - GOP - Primary
Summary Results
6 of 18 Precincts Reporting - 33.33%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:48 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Behnke, Elijah
574
42.52%
GOP   
Jacques, Debbie
341
25.26%
GOP   
Kunesh, Michael
229
16.96%
GOP   
Schneider, Michael
148
10.96%
GOP   
Kamps, David
58
4.3%

A wide open primary here, with Behnke leading with 1/3 of the vote in.

I'm also interested to see how close Dane makes this race. Since the candidates in third and fourth place work under Evers and ran on very liberal platforms, it seems Underly might have a structural advantage come April. But then again, turnout will be extremely low again so it's difficult to predict.

[redjohn]

Obviously a result of massively low turnout, but still an interesting tidbit. Florence county, Wisconsin's most conservative county located in Wisconsin's northwoods, voted for Trump by a 46-point margin in November.

Tonight, the complete results from Florence are:

Kerr 29%
Underly 24%
Krull 16%
Briggs 12%
Gunderson 8%
Fenrick 7%
Hendrick-Williams 5%

There were just 251 votes total. Guessing a large portion of that was educators, employees, and public employees.

[Drew]

Dane's numbers so far:

Dane
200 of 260 Precincts Reporting - 76.92%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 10:10 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
NP   
Underly, Jill
14,676
35.3%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
12,834
30.87%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
5,071
12.2%
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
4,980
11.98%
NP   
Krull, Steve
1,747
4.2%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
1,333
3.21%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
931
2.24%

Underly leading the county, with Kerr in 4th place here.  Kerr's statewide lead cut to 0.5%.

[Drew]

Underly now leading by a few hundred votes after more of Dane comes in.

Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
88.83 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 10:28 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Underly, Jill
76,537
27.04%
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
76,160
26.91%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
44,641
15.77%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
31,003
10.95%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
23,636
8.35%
NP   
Krull, Steve
17,914
6.33%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
13,151
4.65%

[Drew]

AP calls it for Underly and Kerr with about 95% in.

Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
94.88 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 10:56 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Underly, Jill
86,707
27.39%
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
83,881
26.5%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
49,311
15.58%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
35,991
11.37%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
26,419
8.35%
NP   
Krull, Steve
20,026
6.33%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
14,207
4.49%

[Drew]

Elijah Behnke wins the GOP nomination in AD-89 with a plurality.

Summary Results
18 of 18 Precincts Reporting - 100%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 11:01 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Behnke, Elijah
1,643
44.54%
GOP   
Kunesh, Michael
862
23.37%
GOP   
Jacques, Debbie
768
20.82%
GOP   
Schneider, Michael
259
7.02%
GOP   
Kamps, David
157
4.26%

[Drew]

Map of the leading vote-getter in each county.  Yellow=Underly, Brown=Kerr, Red=Gunderson.  Source: https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2021/2/16/wisconsin-spring-primary-election-results.html



Briggs came in 2nd in Dane.  She managed to win my precinct in my village just outside of Madison.

[Dr. Arch]

Map of the leading vote-getter in each county.  Yellow=Underly, Brown=Kerr, Red=Gunderson.  Source: https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2021/2/16/wisconsin-spring-primary-election-results.html



Briggs came in 2nd in Dane.  She managed to win my precinct in my village just outside of Madison.

My friend, that is clearly magenta. At the least, it's closer to purple than red.

[Drew]

Map of the leading vote-getter in each county.  Yellow=Underly, Brown=Kerr, Red=Gunderson.  Source: https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2021/2/16/wisconsin-spring-primary-election-results.html



Briggs came in 2nd in Dane.  She managed to win my precinct in my village just outside of Madison.

My friend, that is clearly magenta. At the least, it's closer to purple than red.

It must have been the blue-light filter I use at night on my computer.

[MasterJedi]

Imagine the turnout in Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties was low after that lake-effect snow dump. Missed the vote due to the crazy snow, asked for a mail ballot late, they sent it without the ballot and couldn't make it last night.

[Gass3268]

Not a good start to the Kerr general election campaign.

https://twitter.com/RoryLinnane/status/1362103688827990016?s=20

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Not a good start to the Kerr general election campaign.

https://twitter.com/RoryLinnane/status/1362103688827990016?s=20

Is Kerr the de facto Republican?

[Gass3268]

Not a good start to the Kerr general election campaign.

https://twitter.com/RoryLinnane/status/1362103688827990016?s=20

Is Kerr the de facto Republican?

Essentially, yes. She's who the big monied conservative interests are backing and she's open to school voucher expansion. However, she claims that she's a Democrat and voted for Joe Biden. She's definitely to the left of Don Pridemore who was the conservative choice in 2013 and she appears to be less conservative than Lowell Holtz who was Evers' challenger in 2017.

[RogueBeaver]

Priebus is looking at a gubernatorial or Senate run, but he's been a permanent DC resident for 4 years.

[Drew]

Reince Priebus considering running for Governor.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/report-former-trump-chief-of-staff-reince-priebus-considering-run-for-wisconsin-governor/article_fba54153-972a-51ec-8776-878f9a1e6c52.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR0Je02_Mdn2nr0c0jQ0eGyhbqpJT13NhMtm08oj4cRxIU6zrqJTYnpcvFM

The article notes that Rebecca Kleefisch is likely to run.  Other possible candidates are Waukesha Co. executive Paul Farrow and Kevin Nicholson (unless Ron Johnson doesn’t run again, in which case he’d run for Senate).

Kleefisch would seem to start as the favorite for nomination.  Priebus has the “baggage” of not always having seen eye to eye with Trump, which will likely be used against him in the primary.

[Drew]

A bill has been introduced to implement ranked choice voting for federal congressional elections in WI.  It has bipartisan support, though it’s mostly republicans that are opposed.  It would create a top-5 jungle primary.

https://apnews.com/article/legislature-voting-bills-wisconsin-state-legislature-41bd936ff1774d33c6a9e88a90ed8e07

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

J.Doyle from 2003-2011 and he was a D Gov and was scandalous, without a scandal, I don't see Evers losing and Johnson whom blocked and won't vote for stimulus is endangered

[Lognog]

A bill has been introduced to implement ranked choice voting for federal congressional elections in WI.  It has bipartisan support, though it’s mostly republicans that are opposed.  It would create a top-5 jungle primary.

https://apnews.com/article/legislature-voting-bills-wisconsin-state-legislature-41bd936ff1774d33c6a9e88a90ed8e07

endorsed

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A bill has been introduced to implement ranked choice voting for federal congressional elections in WI.  It has bipartisan support, though it’s mostly republicans that are opposed.  It would create a top-5 jungle primary.

https://apnews.com/article/legislature-voting-bills-wisconsin-state-legislature-41bd936ff1774d33c6a9e88a90ed8e07

endorsed