Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Drew]

Dane County Judge Jill Karofsky running for SC next year.  Looks like there will be a primary, which could produce more buzz around this race that may have been lacking this year.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/dane-county-judge-jill-karofsky-plans-bid-for-state-supreme/article_b2414bed-ad05-5c52-80f3-f5c1ca16f873.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

[Drew]

Dan Kelly IN for 2020 SC race.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/justice-dan-kelly-seeks--year-term-on-state-supreme/article_08da2e8c-9e9e-566e-a76a-61f3ac2ebf9d.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

[Drew]

Ben Wikler elected new chair of DPW.  Won in a landslide over state Rep. and incumbent vice-chair David Bowen.

https://www.wispolitics.com/2019/wikler-wins-dem-chair-race/

[Drew]

Are Dems in any position to pick up 3 State Senate seats in 2020, or is it noncompetitive until the post-2020 redraw?

Or are #DemsInDisarray?

It's too gerrymandered right now. Dems need 60%+ of the vote in the state house/senate to get a bare majority, barring an unprecedented and insane collapse in WOW.

Plus, there’s Patty Schachtner in SD-10 who got in on a special election, is up next year and vulnerable.  She’s basically the Doug Jones of Wisconsin.

[Drew]

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

[Drew]

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

Question for you (or any of my other Badger-bros): I'm assuming there are no possible R->D flips to offset these potential losses, else they would have been won over in 2018?

The 2018 election was for the other half of the Senate seats.  The 2020 map was last up in 2016, where Dems had identified a few targets, but they ended up trending more towards Rs.  If there’s one offensive target this time around it would maybe be Patrick Testin’s seat in SD24, which he flipped in 2016.  However, if Dems were to flip this seat back, then I’m guessing they’re holding SDs 30 and 32 in the process.

[Drew]

State Superintendent Carolyn Stanford Taylor not running for a full term in Spring 2021.  She was picked by Evers to finish his term.  This will be the first open Superintendent race since 2009.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/education/stanford-taylor-won-t-run-for-election-to-state-superintendent/article_d48f2383-dadf-5868-862e-6fe26520c365.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1219674763217580032?s=20

Safe D Senate District, but the Democratic Primary could be competative here. The winner would essentailly get the seat for as long as they want.

Sargent is already in, and Anderson and Hebl are considering.  Also considering are Kelda Roys and Madison alder Samba Baldeh.

Also, the article below states that Fred Risser, 92 years old and the longest-serving state legislator in American history, hasn’t made a decision yet on whether to run again and will decide by April.

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/several-madison-area-democrats-mull-run-for-mark-miller-s/article_71489783-e389-504c-af1a-2c0374882df4.html

[Drew]

Supreme Court
NAME   VOTES   PCT.   

Jill Karofsky   102,379   44%   

Daniel Kelly (I)   93,048   40%   

Ed Fallone   38,242   16%   
28% reporting (1007 of 3624 precincts)

Link with county map here: https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2020/2/18/election-results-wisconsin-spring-primary-election.html

Milwaukee nearly 90% in, Dane 2/3 in, Waukesha not reporting yet.

For those of you out of state, Kelly is preferred by Republicans, while Karofsky and Fallone are preferred by Democrats.  The top two advance, so it’s likely to be Kelly and Karofsky.  No surprise here.

[Drew]

Supreme Court
NAME   VOTES   PCT.   
 
Daniel Kelly (I)   201,246   48%   
 
Jill Karofsky   161,116   38%   

Ed Fallone   57,017   14%   
50% reporting (1811 of 3624 precincts)

The race has been called for Karofsky and Kelly to advance.  About 71% of Waukesha in, 86% of Dane in, 93% of Milwaukee in.

[Drew]

This just makes me more irritated Neubauer lost. We’d have a majority.

Either that or actually running a candidate in 2017.

[Drew]

Update from Dane County’s numerous open-seat races.

https://twitter.com/wsjmattd4/status/1293359197132853248?s=21

[Drew]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

[Drew]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

[Drew]

In response to Evers handling of the Kenosha aftermath and handling of Covid, opponents launched a recall effort on Aug 27. Today they said they have the signatures to force a recall.
https://www.wsaw.com/2020/10/20/group-looking-to-recall-evers-says-theyve-met-the-minimum-number-of-required-petition-signatures/

How likely is it that the recall will be successful? As we saw before with Scott Walker it is hard to do.

Successful as in removing him from office? Probably not. Successful as in “showing how awful the WI GOP is?” Extremely.

Take those signature numbers with a grain of salt, as the organizer said on social media that she was going to “make up some crap” to mislead media.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/19/recall-organizer-suggests-facebook-posts-shes-misleading-media/5985360002/?fbclid=IwAR3DKyVY0gC7F_JQB2FnCUlQEjkVGG0jo1W-tQ3h7f2_pA4-Q_sL_w-MrQQ

That said, if this ends up going through and forcing a recall, it will be another chapter in the horror show that is Wisconsin politics.

[Drew]

Can't post a source right now but the recall effort has failed, they're suspending their operations.

Here’s a link.  The organizer indeed says that she doesn’t have enough signatures and will destroy petition documents.

https://www.nbc15.com/2020/10/26/organizer-petition-to-recall-gov-tony-evers-falls-short-on-signatures/

[Drew]

State Rep. John Nygren (R) of AD-89 resigning to take a job in the private sector.

http://fox47.com/news/local/rep-john-nygren-to-resign-from-assembly-weeks-after-winning-reelection

R’s should have no problem holding it.  He won with nearly 70% of the vote, and the district has only gotten more R over the past several years.

[Drew]

State Rep. John Nygren (R) of AD-89 resigning to take a job in the private sector.

http://fox47.com/news/local/rep-john-nygren-to-resign-from-assembly-weeks-after-winning-reelection

R’s should have no problem holding it.  He won with nearly 70% of the vote, and the district has only gotten more R over the past several years.

The special election has been scheduled for 4/6/21, the same day as the spring elections in the state.  The primary would be 2/16/21 in alignment with the statewide primary.  Safe R.

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/WIGOV/2020/12/18/file_attachments/1630860/EO099-SpecialElection89th.pdf

[Drew]

Wisconsin’s filing deadline for the Spring elections was yesterday. 

-There are 7 filed candidates for the open Superintendent of Public Instruction, if they are all approved. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2021/01/05/7-candidates-file-wisconsin-superintendent-public-instruction/4142081001/

-There is no Supreme Court race this year, but 2 of the 4 appeals court circuits have contested elections.  District 2 has a conservative running against an Evers appointee.  This could be an flip, as this district contains much of eastern Wisconsin sans Milwaukee County.  District 3, much of northern WI, appears to have 4 candidates that filed for an open seat.

-There are two special elections in the state legislature, one for SD-13 (Fitzgerald) and one for AD-89 (Nygren).  Republicans are likely to retain both.  Assemblyman John Jagler seems most likely to win the Senate seat, as one of 3 republicans that filed, along with one Democrat.  The Dems have one candidate, who previously ran for an assembly seat.  4 republicans and one Democrat filed for AD-89.

Source: https://elections.wi.gov/sites/elections.wi.gov/files/2021-01/Candidates%20Tracking%20By%20Office%20as%20of%201.5.2021%20at%205pm.pdf

[Drew]

The Mayor of Waukesha is leaving the GOP, presumably due to recent events.  He’s a never-Trumper, but still notable considering it’s Waukesha.

https://twitter.com/billmiston/status/1347220803780280322?s=21

[Drew]

Some numbers about diversity in the state Legislature.  There are now 10 Black legislators between the senate and assembly, including one Republican.  The first Asian American Representative took office this year as well.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/new-session-brings-historic-level-of-black-representation-to-wisconsin-legislature/article_c7181e87-aef5-5a79-9e16-5d323482230a.html

There are now 41 female legislators, or about 31%, up from 34 in the last cycle.  About 2/3 are Dem, but GOP women had the most gains.

https://www.wpr.org/more-women-are-serving-wisconsin-state-lawmakers-ever?fbclid=IwAR2Hftucrq6019SfpcB1ihTmagZZ3KY47szZ_ZMJJ0M-ukJUEZZNQjU758U

[Drew]

It’s Spring Primary Day in WI.  We have one statewide primary which is for State Superintendent.  The top two vote-getters of the 7-candidate field will advance to the general.  There are contested GOP special primaries for SD-13 and AD-89 to fill those vacancies.  Other than that, there are various local elections for city councils, school boards, etc.  Polls close at 8 PM CT. Turnout is expected to be low, as is typical for these February primaries.  One tweet that I came across:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1361774112125943809?s=21

Keep in mind that areas in the SE corner of the state got a lot of lake-effect snow yesterday and it’s still quite cold.

Link for results, hopefully they'll put up a map like they usually do: https://wisconsinvote.org/election-results/

[Drew]

WISCONSIN
Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
6.08 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 9:12 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
4,895
33.29%
NP   
Underly, Jill
3,457
23.51%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
1,904
12.95%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
1,806
12.28%
NP   
Krull, Steve
935
6.36%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
930
6.32%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
778
5.29%

Early numbers suggesting a Kerr-Underly race, with Kerr doing well in conservative areas like Waukesha, while Underly doing well in more liberal areas like Milwaukee.  This is how I figured it would shape up.

[Drew]

Supt of Public Instrctn - Oth - Primary
50 % Precincts ReportingFeb. 16, 2021 9:49 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
42,682
31.7%
NP   
Underly, Jill
33,099
24.58%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
16,312
12.11%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
15,990
11.88%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
10,065
7.47%
NP   
Krull, Steve
8,826
6.55%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
7,676
5.7%

Half the votes are in.  Milwaukee and Waukesha almost all in, with Dane still out.  Still looks like Kerr and Underly will advance.  Hendricks-Williams seems to have limited appeal outside of Milwaukee.  Troy Gunderson leading a few counties in Driftless, that must be where he's from.  Dane should come up big for Underly.  Let's see if it's enough to get her into 1st place.

State Senate - District 13 - GOP - Primary
72 of 89 Precincts Reporting - 80.9%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:46 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Jagler, John
5,146
57.15%
GOP   
Pridemore, Don
3,006
33.38%
GOP   
Menzel, Todd
853
9.47%

Looks like state Rep. John Jagler has this (EDIT: he's the projected winner).  Pridemore is himself a former state Rep.

State Assembly - District 89 - GOP - Primary
Summary Results
6 of 18 Precincts Reporting - 33.33%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 9:48 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Behnke, Elijah
574
42.52%
GOP   
Jacques, Debbie
341
25.26%
GOP   
Kunesh, Michael
229
16.96%
GOP   
Schneider, Michael
148
10.96%
GOP   
Kamps, David
58
4.3%

A wide open primary here, with Behnke leading with 1/3 of the vote in.

[Drew]

Dane's numbers so far:

Dane
200 of 260 Precincts Reporting - 76.92%Updated: Feb. 16, 2021 10:10 pm
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
NP   
Underly, Jill
14,676
35.3%
NP   
Briggs, Sheila
12,834
30.87%
NP   
Hendricks-Williams, Shandowlyon
5,071
12.2%
NP   
Kerr, Deborah
4,980
11.98%
NP   
Krull, Steve
1,747
4.2%
NP   
Gunderson, Troy
1,333
3.21%
NP   
Fenrick, Joe
931
2.24%

Underly leading the county, with Kerr in 4th place here.  Kerr's statewide lead cut to 0.5%.