Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[voice_of_resistance]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

[ajc0918]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

[windjammer]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

It's a differences between hardcore ideological politicians and power-hungry politicians. I know those two seem close right now in the GOP, and are near uniform in a few states like WI/NC/TX, but there is still differences that will become clearer in 1 or 5 years.

[Nyvin]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

Hagedorn sided with the liberals in this case, but most of the time the swing vote is Roggensack.

[Nhoj]

Question for the MKE area posters since i think i have seen some of you express dislike for Chris Larson before. Is Crowley likely to be a lot better?

[Skill and Chance]

Great wins in the judicial races. So now a 4-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Is that a hard conservative 4 justice majority? Or is there a more moderate conservative who's willing to break ranks on big, partisan, cases?

One GOP justice is slightly more moderate.

Yes and Kelly was very conservative so while this race doesn't flip control it will impact some cases. For example, I saw a tweet in this thread, saying those opposing the WI voter purge now have a majority.

Interesting.  Are any of the 3 liberals known to be more moderate and open to dealmaking with the most moderate conservative?  If so, perhaps there could be a lot of 3/2/2 coalitions that would deescalate partisanship on the court?  I think the federal analog to this would be Trump getting to but Amy Barrett in RBG's seat but then Biden or 2024 Dem getting to put a liberal judge in Thomas or Alito's seat the following year?

[ElectionsGuy]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend

2 Point Increments, non-Atlas colors

Swing



Trend



Next on my agenda, turnout comparisons.

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

Hagedorn sided with the liberals in this case, but most of the time the swing vote is Roggensack.

Roggensack is the next justice facing reelection, in 2023.  If she is now the swing vote, that will be an extra incentive for her uphold the 1960's precedent that the legislature can't go around Evers on redistricting and create backdoor NC rules as some conservatives wanted to try, or to refrain from approving overtly partisan maps in a tiebreaker function between the legislature and the governor.

[Skill and Chance]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend

2 Point Increments, non-Atlas colors

Swing



Trend



Next on my agenda, turnout comparisons.

So almost a pure suburban (D)/rural (R) split as elsewhere, but with resorty and ancestrally unionized areas getting more R?  The R floor in the Madison area must be pretty hard. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend
[maps]

why did Bayfield County swing R?

[Skill and Chance]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend
[maps]

why did Bayfield County swing R?

Giant concentration of Obama/Trump voters there (even though the county still narrowly went for Clinton).

[ElectionsGuy]

Turnout increase

Statewide: 28.3%
Bellwether: Winnebago (28.3%)

5% increments (darker = larger increase)



This one is more scattered and varied. This is unofficial vote count so it'll be off by a little, and Langlade still has one precinct outstanding.

As a proportion of the overall vote, from 2019 to 2020:

Milwaukee: 12.4% to 12.9%
Dane: 12.6% to 12.7%
Waukesha: 9.6% to 9.1%
Washington: 3.1% to 2.9%
Ozaukee: 2.2% to 2.1%

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1249834104348123137?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

@ElectionsGuy, what's the projected final overall turnout for this election?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I would love to see a town-level result map.

[MasterJedi]

Question for the MKE area posters since i think i have seen some of you express dislike for Chris Larson before. Is Crowley likely to be a lot better?

He's slimy, seems to be more interested in personal power than anything but he is more progressive. Crawley is still liberal but more moderate, closer to Abele. I voted for Crawley d/t Larson's issues, he also had a bad incident with Taylor awhile ago calling her crazy and to take her meds too. So if it would have been someone with Larson's positions but not him I would have voted for him instead.

[ElectionsGuy]

@ElectionsGuy, what's the projected final overall turnout for this election?

The total for the Supreme Court race right now is 1,549,446. That could go up with outstanding absentees and whatnot.

Btw Langlade's precinct came in, so that county should be one shade darker on the map now.

This is the total for both parties presidential primaries:

Democratic: 924,152 (59.5%) (down 8.3% from 2016)
Republican: 628,382 (40.5%) (down 43.2% from 2016)

Total: 1,552,534 (down 26.5% from 2016)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

@ElectionsGuy, what's the projected final overall turnout for this election?

The total for the Supreme Court race right now is 1,549,446. That could go up with outstanding absentees and whatnot.

Btw Langlade's precinct came in, so that county should be one shade darker on the map now.

This is the total for both parties presidential primaries:

Democratic: 924,152 (59.5%) (down 8.3% from 2016)
Republican: 628,382 (40.5%) (down 43.2% from 2016)

Total: 1,552,534 (down 26.5% from 2016)

Down only 8% in a pandemic is actually pretty impressive.

[President Johnson]

Encouraging, but doesn't mean much for November. Turnout will decide the fate of Wisconsin's electoral vote and the entire election. I'm cautiously optimistic, but it's far from a done deal. But I'm sure Joe Biden and his campaign have learned from Hillary's defeat. That's also obvious in dealing with Bernie, who himself has learned a lesson from last time.

[Wiz in Wis]

Question for the MKE area posters since i think i have seen some of you express dislike for Chris Larson before. Is Crowley likely to be a lot better?

He's slimy, seems to be more interested in personal power than anything but he is more progressive. Crawley is still liberal but more moderate, closer to Abele. I voted for Crawley d/t Larson's issues, he also had a bad incident with Taylor awhile ago calling her crazy and to take her meds too. So if it would have been someone with Larson's positions but not him I would have voted for him instead.

I know David personally, he worked with my wife on the Feingold 2010 campaign. He's genuinely one of the nicest people I've ever met, and he LOVES Milwaukee. Like, this guy bleeds the town. He had a rough youth on the North Side and came through it and now is 100% about giving back.

Larson, as has been mentioned, seems to always be looking for the next promotion, and he's an arrogant ass to be around. On the issues, they're both very solidly liberal. I don't tend to see Abele's $$$ as an indicator of anything than the fact that Chris Abele really, really, hates Chris Larson.

[Gass3268]

The villages of Bayside and Whitefish Bay both mailed out ballots to every registered voter and had the highest turnout % of any locality in the state. Hopefully other municipalities do the same on their own for the November election. Looking at you Milwaukee and Madison.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Marsy's Law passed by a landslide.

[MasterJedi]

Looks like Marsy's Law passed by a landslide.

Yes, very sad but expected when it sounds so nice and helpful but nobody really knew what it actually does.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like Marsy's Law passed by a landslide.

Yes, very sad but expected when it sounds so nice and helpful but nobody really knew what it actually does.

Yep. I voted against it.