Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[QAnonKelly]

Thank god the WI GOP's gambit failed but I hate that people had to go out and vote for this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interestingly this makes the Wisconsin Supreme Court 6-1 female meaning if Neuberger had won it'd now have an all female Supreme Court.

[Non Swing Voter]

Did the Republican concede?

[ajc0918]

Why is southwest WI so left leaning? It's very rural right?

[voice_of_resistance]

yes, but its ancestrally Democratic. Lots of dairy farmers and union workers here, who tend to be non-college white voters. Trump did very well here, but this is the tipping-point district for WI

[Alben Barkley]

WiScOnSiN iS A rEd StAtE nOw

[voice_of_resistance]

WiScOnSiN iS A rEd StAtE nOw

The WOW suburbs trending slightly leftward keeps this competitive.

[Gass3268]

What happened in Rock County that made it look bad for Karofsky earlier this evening?

All that reported where the rurals and Janesville. Beloit and a lot of the other medium sized Democratic cities were still out.

[Gass3268]

yes, but its ancestrally Democratic. Lots of dairy farmers and union workers here, who tend to be non-college white voters. Trump did very well here, but this is the tipping-point district for WI

Actually, this area was pretty Republican up until Bill Clinton and they loved Obama. Northwest Wisconsin was the more ancestral Democratic area.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

[Oryxslayer]

Racine-Kenosha split was 17.5 points today, which is quite interesting.

Kenosha's kinda stayed where she's been for a while politically, meanwhile Racine has been gradually sliding rightwards as WOW starts birthing exurbs in the west of the county.

[Dr. Arch]

Racine-Kenosha split was 17.5 points today, which is quite interesting.

Kenosha's kinda stayed where she's been for a while politically, meanwhile Racine has been gradually sliding rightwards as WOW starts birthing exurbs in the west of the county.

Hilariously enough, we might see an #Ozaukeexit from the WOW coalition within the next couple of years if the suburbs keep moving left. It'll be WWW at that point.

[Oryxslayer]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

St. Croix isn't exactly rural. It's more exurban, on it's way towards becoming suburban. The county is one of the few bright spots in the state when it comes to democratic trends.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Why is southwest WI so left leaning? It's very rural right?

Born and raised in the Driftless Area. It is a strange place politically, 90% white, very religious, very rural, yet due to the Scandinavian heritage they vote majority Dem. (most of the time)

Some anecdotes:

Viroqua, Vernon County Seat is your classic mini-Madison small town, strong hippie/progressive vibes, yet their are multiple anti-abortion billboards welcoming you into town, and most local restaurants that play music will have the default be christian rock.


Richland Center, Richland County seat. A small town of about 5,000 has OVER TWENTY churches within the city limits. You seriously cannot go a few blocks without seeing one. This part of Driftless is somewhat of a northwoods-esque desert of population, yet again reliably votes Dem.


As the GOP continues to rely on the white vote the Driftless Area will soon turn from light blue to light red. This can already be seen in some areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Racine-Kenosha split was 17.5 points today, which is quite interesting.

Kenosha's kinda stayed where she's been for a while politically, meanwhile Racine has been gradually sliding rightwards as WOW starts birthing exurbs in the west of the county.

Could Chicagoland begin influencing Kenosha in the future and generate a D trend there? It does border Lake County IL.

[Brittain33]

DDHQ has Karofsky up by over 100,000 votes.

[walleye26]

Racine-Kenosha split was 17.5 points today, which is quite interesting.

Kenosha's kinda stayed where she's been for a while politically, meanwhile Racine has been gradually sliding rightwards as WOW starts birthing exurbs in the west of the county.

Could Chicagoland begin influencing Kenosha in the future and generate a D trend there? It does border Lake County IL.

Yes. A coworker of mine grew up in Kenosha and told me that it’s cheaper in property taxes to live in Wisconsin and commute to Chicago. There’s a train in Kenosha, and Amazon has built up a lot along the freeway.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

St. Croix isn't exactly rural. It's more exurban, on it's way towards becoming suburban. The county is one of the few bright spots in the state when it comes to democratic trends.

Sure but Baldwin lost it by five in 2018, Evers got crushed there (-15) and even Dallett only barely pulled it out while outperformed Karofsky on all of the river counties. One and a half years of MSP spillover is not really enough to account for shifts that large.

[Dr. Arch]

DDHQ has Karofsky up by over 100,000 votes.

Madison is still out, and we're at Karofsky+8.

[Nyvin]

Is Taylor County just the most conservative in the state or Kelly's hometown or what?   The margin kinda stands out in the map.

[voice_of_resistance]

I think so, outside of WOW. Even Obama didn't carry it in 2008.

[Wiz in Wis]

Here's a fun fact, Karofsky did better in Ozaukee County than she did in Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Calumet, Fond du Lac, or Kewaunee county...

[Tartarus Sauce]

The remaining 10 or 11 percent is going to be pretty Democratic, so Karofsky's margin will continue to grow. Wouldn't be surprised if she runs away with a 9 point or 10 point win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Motion to change thread title to Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in Disarray

[voice_of_resistance]

I second.