Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I third

[Dr. Arch]

Dunn just flipped!

[Tartarus Sauce]

Karofsky won both Dunn and St. Pierce.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dunn just flipped. With the exception of Racine, Karofsky replicated Baldwin's 2018 Senate map.

Some people were tweeting that Chippewa could flip as well.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The remaining 10 or 11 percent is going to be pretty Democratic, so Karofsky's margin will continue to grow. Wouldn't be surprised if she runs away with a 9 point or 10 point win.

Halfway between Obama 08 and 2012 numbers in WI.

[ON Progressive]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

According to Pierce County's website, this is the result:
Karofsky 4450
Kelly 3623

So about 55.1% Karofsky, which is really good.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Only 300 precincts left and a third of them are in Dane County.

[walleye26]

Is Taylor County just the most conservative in the state or Kelly's hometown or what?   The margin kinda stands out in the map.

Northern WI is pretty rural, but Taylor County is REALLY rural. Most northern WI counties have a lot of lakes that draw retired Milwaukee/Chicago/Twin Cities liberals, but Taylor county doesn’t have this development because of the National Forest (and Taylor County has no big lakes). This prevents a liberal floor that other counties such as Oneida, Washburn, Iron, and Sawyer have. Unlike a lot of other Northern WI counties, there are no Reservations for the tribes. Lastly, Taylor for some reason is significantly more evangelical than surrounding counties. I don’t know why, but there are a fair amount of church retreats in rural Taylor County.

[Bojack Horseman]

Bye Trump

[Gass3268]

Mayor-Elect of Wausau

https://twitter.com/katierosenberg/status/1249817824689881090?s=20

[Gass3268]

This is the east Isthmus of Madison (Atwood, Marquette, Willy Street, etc.)

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1249886731501002752?s=20

[Nyvin]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

[Bidenworth2020]

Any idea how Karofsky ended up doing in the Whitefish Bay/Glendale area?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Outagamie has all come in, it's also a Karofsky win.

200 precincts left, 85 of them in Dane County, and we're at Karfosky +8.2.

[libertpaulian]

Karofsky now leads by 125K votes!

[Dr. Arch]

70% in MKE!?!? Okay, so maybe we're in +10 territory now.

Called it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

So Hagedorn was sort of an Anthony Kennedy and Kelly was more of an Antonin Scalia?

[libertpaulian]

What's taking these final 195 precincts so long?!  I'd like to see if Karofsky can win by 10%, and if 1.5 million voters turned out.

[walleye26]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

So Hagedorn was sort of an Anthony Kennedy and Kelly was more of an Antonin Scalia?

Hagedorn is NOT centrist. Think of him more as Kavanaugh. He lost a lot of support after extremely homophobic remarks came back from a few years back where he compared homosexuality to beastility. Once if cams out, Hagedorn went all “I’m being persecuted for my faith” and won evangelicals by HUGE margins.

[pppolitics]

...then we wake up tomorrow to find Republicans trying to overturn the election

[Yellowhammer]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1249857416885342210

This dumb hack is off-the-rails insane, not sure why you're spreading her garbage. Even Atlas deserves better than that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow Karofsky won Brown County (Green Bay).

Outgamie too. She won all the main counties of the Fox River Valley.

Hahahah, wow. Blowout.

[Nyvin]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

So Hagedorn was sort of an Anthony Kennedy and Kelly was more of an Antonin Scalia?

No,  Roggensack would be John Roberts,  Hagedorn is Kavanaugh,

Zeigler, Kelly, and (Rebecca) Bradley are Scalia/Alito/Thomas, take your pick.

[KaiserDave]

Great victory! The GOP's own criminality was betrayed by their own incompetence and the fury of the voters of Wisconsin!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

According to Pierce County's website, this is the result:
Karofsky 4450
Kelly 3623

So about 55.1% Karofsky, which is really good.

Wow, Karofsky was within half of a point of Baldwin's margin here. I assumed that River Falls (and Stout I guess) wouldn't have as much of a student vote due to students being at home.

I almost put in that post that Dunn was still in play if the outstanding vote was in Stout, but I took it out because that was speculative and I was too lazy to look it up. But I guess it was true!