Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

"Western alienation" doesn't seem to be much of a thing in South Burnaby.  When Jagmeet Singh moved there to run a small number may have objected to him being a parachute candidate, but nobody seemed to object on the grounds that he's an "easterner" who "doesn't get the West."

I live in BC and I don't see much Western Alienation at all.  Most here have little affinity for Alberta and while maybe more alienation in Interior not Lower Mainland.  Yes in past, BC and Alberta were on same side in 90s, but that was over constitutional debates and feeling government gave special status to Quebec which generally in Western Canada has had less support than in Ontario.  Also seeing French on cereal boxes used to annoy a lot as BC has few French speakers, but nowadays its a non-issue and people have moved on.

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

Minor nitpick, but it wouldn't really be "coasts vs interior" in Canada, because BC is the only highly-populated coastal area and most Canadians live in the interior. It's more like "metropolitan vs rural areas", which already somewhat exists in terms of Liberal support, but there are notable exceptions (most obviously, Calgary and Edmonton being CPC-voting metro areas, and the maritimes LPC-voting rural area).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

I was mistaken in my perception, PEI was dominated by the PCs (federally) between 1957-1984, the golden age of Red Toryism. It was titanium Liberal before Diefenbaker though, unlike the two other maritime provinces which always had a strong Tory streak even before Dief.

[mileslunn]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

Minor nitpick, but it wouldn't really be "coasts vs interior" in Canada, because BC is the only highly-populated coastal area and most Canadians live in the interior. It's more like "metropolitan vs rural areas", which already somewhat exists in terms of Liberal support, but there are notable exceptions (most obviously, Calgary and Edmonton being CPC-voting metro areas, and the maritimes LPC-voting rural area).

I think better might be major body of water vs. away from one since if you count Great Lakes and St. Lawrence as coasts then this does more or less pan out.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

Minor nitpick, but it wouldn't really be "coasts vs interior" in Canada, because BC is the only highly-populated coastal area and most Canadians live in the interior. It's more like "metropolitan vs rural areas", which already somewhat exists in terms of Liberal support, but there are notable exceptions (most obviously, Calgary and Edmonton being CPC-voting metro areas, and the maritimes LPC-voting rural area).

I think better might be major body of water vs. away from one since if you count Great Lakes and St. Lawrence as coasts then this does more or less pan out.

Makes sense. Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence are great for transportation, leading to more industry and population, and more of a left lean

[Storr]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

Minor nitpick, but it wouldn't really be "coasts vs interior" in Canada, because BC is the only highly-populated coastal area and most Canadians live in the interior. It's more like "metropolitan vs rural areas", which already somewhat exists in terms of Liberal support, but there are notable exceptions (most obviously, Calgary and Edmonton being CPC-voting metro areas, and the maritimes LPC-voting rural area).

I think better might be major body of water vs. away from one since if you count Great Lakes and St. Lawrence as coasts then this does more or less pan out.

Makes sense. Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence are great for transportation, leading to more industry and population, and more of a left lean

I was randomly wondering recently why the Maritimes don't have large cities (on the scale of Boston, New York, or Philadelphia) along Canada's Atlantic coast similar to the US Northeast and settled on it possibly being because of a lack ideal natural harbors due to the topography of the region. Of course, I'd neglected to take into account the St. Lawrence. There's not as much of a need for large coastal port cities when there's a massive navigable body of water flowing directly inland.

[King of Kensington]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 


 

[2952-0-0]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

[mileslunn]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

True if you include by water, but by land while Michigan went from Trump in 2016, in last 30 years its only voted GOP once.  Generally of the border states, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota are only ones that vote GOP most of the time.  Now interestingly enough if you go by county, most border counties go GOP, but then most are rural too.

[King of Kensington]

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

Yes SW Ontario a bit "Michigan"-like but a far larger share of the population of Ontario lives in the GTHA.  Ontario is more comparable to New York State or maybe Illinois than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in terms of urbanization, diversity and politics.  Not to mention NYS is also super-rust belty outside its dominant metro area.

[mileslunn]

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

Yes SW Ontario a bit "Michigan"-like but a far larger share of the population of Ontario lives in the GTHA.  Ontario is more comparable to New York State or maybe Illinois than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in terms of urbanization, diversity and politics.  Not to mention NYS is also super-rust belty outside its dominant metro area.

Largely true, only difference is downstate Illinois is on northern edge of Bible belt so GOP tends to run up the margins more there than Tories do anywhere in Ontario.  Lots of over 70% GOP counties in Illinois while in Ontario Tories rarely crack 60% anywhere even in their strongest ridings and in most elections number over 50% tends to be in single digits.  Upstate New York more like that as GOP competitive there but not blowouts.  On other hand New York City alone is 42% of state's population whereas Toronto is only 20% (if you take just 416).  Only Staten Island is somewhat 905ish, other four boroughs more 416ish.  905 is more akin to Long Island and Westchester County although interestingly enough GOP gets in upper 40s on Long Island but low 30s for Westchester County.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin actually in urban vs. rural split are closer to that of Manitoba and same in diversity and Tories usually get in 40s in Manitoba not 30s like Ontario (although with how bad they are doing now could be worse, but just saying generally speaking).  Biggest difference is those states have population densities more in line with Southern Ontario than Southern Manitoba (Southern Ontario is actually just as dense, province as whole only much less as Northern Ontario quite sparsely populated).

[Hatman 🍁]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

And SW Ontario still has a populist streak that has turned on its ancestral Liberal past in the last couple of decades.

[mileslunn]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

And SW Ontario still has a populist streak that has turned on its ancestral Liberal past in the last couple of decades.

Also at both federal and provincial level, most past Liberal MPs/MPPs from Southwestern Ontario tended to come from right of party and were usually socially conservative.  You had people like Paul Steckle, Roger Gallaway, and Rose Marie Ur and I somehow doubt types like those would be allowed to run in today's Liberals.  Liberals though have compensated for this by winning in upper middle class suburbs which were once solidly Tory.  Ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton were not too long ago safe Conservative ridings but now fairly safe Liberal and only go Tory in good elections not most like used to.

[King of Kensington]

Population density:

Southern Ontario  263 / sq. mile
Michigan  174 / sq. mile
Lower Michigan  240 / sq. mile
Illinois  232 / sq. mile
Wisconsin  105 / sq. mile
Minnesota  69 / sq. mile

[WindowPhil]

Why doesn't every province have an educational public channel like TVO or British Colombia Knowledge Network?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/07/15/mccrimmon-not-expected-to-run-again-carney-could-succeed-her-as-next-liberal-candidate-in-kanata-carleton-say-liberal-sources/306985

Volume 375 of "Canadian journalists make a mess in their pants dreaming about MP Mark Carney". Next week we'll see a Hill Times article titled "Ottawa-area teenager quits job at McDonalds' - Carney could succeed him as Drive-thru cashier, say Liberal sources".

I'd love to see Carney run as much as any other neoliberal shill, but we've been hearing these "rumours" and "inside sources" for a year now. Could it be that, hear me out here, Carney actually isn't going to run?

[beesley]

I hope Carney runs in Battle River-Crowfoot for the sheer fun of the journalism.

[RogueBeaver]

Nova Scotia votes next month.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if people think winning next election in Canada is maybe a poison pill in sense that a lot of tough but unpopular decisions will have to be made.  I don't see how we can get our deficit under control without either tax hikes and/or spending cuts and if government doesn't take action, probably multiple credit downgrades.  Likewise with inflation rising, its not a matter of if, but when interest rates rise and that is not just bad news on deficit front, also bad news for many individuals as personal debt very high in Canada.  Likewise high housing prices is a tough one.  Let them continue to rise and risk angering millennials who are upset they cannot afford a home by 30 unlike previous generations or take action and anger boomers who rely heavily on home as asset to fund retirement and angry rug pulled out under.  So I think these issues have a real chance of making whomever wins struggle in 2025.  At same time Liberals who probably win have advantage Tories in such a rut and likely won't learn and NDP too many see as a non-realistic alternative.  Also possible government could surprise us and handle it well too.  Any thoughts here?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wondering if people think winning next election in Canada is maybe a poison pill in sense that a lot of tough but unpopular decisions will have to be made.  I don't see how we can get our deficit under control without either tax hikes and/or spending cuts and if government doesn't take action, probably multiple credit downgrades.  Likewise with inflation rising, its not a matter of if, but when interest rates rise and that is not just bad news on deficit front, also bad news for many individuals as personal debt very high in Canada.  Likewise high housing prices is a tough one.  Let them continue to rise and risk angering millennials who are upset they cannot afford a home by 30 unlike previous generations or take action and anger boomers who rely heavily on home as asset to fund retirement and angry rug pulled out under.  So I think these issues have a real chance of making whomever wins struggle in 2025.  At same time Liberals who probably win have advantage Tories in such a rut and likely won't learn and NDP too many see as a non-realistic alternative.  Also possible government could surprise us and handle it well too.  Any thoughts here?

I think you have a point. There's a reason Trudeau is clearly angling for a fall election, 2021 is very likely going to be the peak of his post-honeymoon popularity and he knows it.

Although as things stand it's very hard to see a CPC government emerging this fall, realistically the choice is LPC majority vs minority. Even if the CPC wins a plurality, if LPC+NDP>170, the NDP has nothing to gain from taking down the Grits.

My hunch is that if the Liberals have to settle for another minority, the next few years will get real difficult for them. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, if the Liberals can't win a majority with these circumstances, they have a real problem. Being beholden to NDP/BQ kingmakers will only tie Trudeau's hands further.

[Benjamin Frank]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

I was mistaken in my perception, PEI was dominated by the PCs (federally) between 1957-1984, the golden age of Red Toryism. It was titanium Liberal before Diefenbaker though, unlike the two other maritime provinces which always had a strong Tory streak even before Dief.

There was a brief attempt in Canada to deny that Trudeaumania existed in 1968. They point to that Trudeau did not do as well as either Diefenbaker in 1958 or Brian Mulroney in 1984.  Fair enough as far as it goes, the Liberals 'only' won 155 of 264 seats with 45.4% of the vote.  However, part of the reason for that is that there was a smaller somewhat offsetting Stanfieldmania in the Atlantic in 1968.

[MaxQue]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

[Benjamin Frank]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

That's a rather interesting way to introduce the news.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-execs-cancel-non-confidence-vote-against-leader-annamie-paul-sources-1.5514081

Green party execs cancel non-confidence vote against leader Annamie Paul: sources

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

[CumbrianLefty]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

That's a rather interesting way to introduce the news.

Though not necessarily a totally inaccurate one.