Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

If the age thing is a big issue, not only is the NDP being overestimated by polls, one would think the CPC is underestimated. This somewhat happened in 2019, although polls were pretty close to the mark. CPC's awful numbers with the under-35 crowd might give them much worse topline numbers when turnout isn't factored in.

[CascadianIndy]

Wroth noting that in the 338canada federal simulator (not the most accurate thing considering you can't input provincial crosstabs), if you give the PPC just 2.8%, Bernier wins Beauce, not to mention how the seat's now a tossup and he's only 1.5% behind the Tory candidate for the seat!


With the wonky AR provincial breakdowns (18% for Other in Alberta and 16% in Saskatchewan, I feel like we might be underestimating the PPC/Mavs a bit here, along with the CPC. Maybe the non-response bias issue from the US carried over here as well? Just my two cents.

[Hatman 🍁]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

I think pollsters are hesitant to "make numbers up", so they just use the census. Turnout estimates are available from Elections Canada by age and gender, so pollsters can use that if they want, but not every elections agency provides that, and you're relying on the assumption that the turnout by age group is going to be the same for the next election.

[mileslunn]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

I think pollsters are hesitant to "make numbers up", so they just use the census. Turnout estimates are available from Elections Canada by age and gender, so pollsters can use that if they want, but not every elections agency provides that, and you're relying on the assumption that the turnout by age group is going to be the same for the next election.

It does though usually mean NDP and Greens tend to underperform, Tories overperform polls while Liberals and BQ (support is pretty even across age groups) get close to predictions.  Could also for provincial elections mean Ford, Kenney, and Pallister might not be in quite as bad a shape as polls say.  Don't get me wrong, all three could lose, Kenney most likely followed by Pallister while Ford probably in best shape of three.  But point being all three do better amongst older than younger voters.  Ontario also tougher in that while OLP support even across age groups, ONDP skews heavily younger so if an OLP-PCPO race might be bad news for Ford while if an ONDP-PCPO race I think Ford is probably the favourite there.  Howarth can win still, but she will need to bring millennials out in big numbers to do so.  Otherwise if she can have millennial turnout like Trudeau did in 2015, then I think she can win, but if like it normally is, then no Ford wins.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if people think winning next election in Canada is maybe a poison pill in sense that a lot of tough but unpopular decisions will have to be made.  I don't see how we can get our deficit under control without either tax hikes and/or spending cuts and if government doesn't take action, probably multiple credit downgrades.  Likewise with inflation rising, its not a matter of if, but when interest rates rise and that is not just bad news on deficit front, also bad news for many individuals as personal debt very high in Canada.  Likewise high housing prices is a tough one.  Let them continue to rise and risk angering millennials who are upset they cannot afford a home by 30 unlike previous generations or take action and anger boomers who rely heavily on home as asset to fund retirement and angry rug pulled out under.  So I think these issues have a real chance of making whomever wins struggle in 2025.  At same time Liberals who probably win have advantage Tories in such a rut and likely won't learn and NDP too many see as a non-realistic alternative.  Also possible government could surprise us and handle it well too.  Any thoughts here?

I think you have a point. There's a reason Trudeau is clearly angling for a fall election, 2021 is very likely going to be the peak of his post-honeymoon popularity and he knows it.

Although as things stand it's very hard to see a CPC government emerging this fall, realistically the choice is LPC majority vs minority. Even if the CPC wins a plurality, if LPC+NDP>170, the NDP has nothing to gain from taking down the Grits.

My hunch is that if the Liberals have to settle for another minority, the next few years will get real difficult for them. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, if the Liberals can't win a majority with these circumstances, they have a real problem. Being beholden to NDP/BQ kingmakers will only tie Trudeau's hands further.

Absolutely, I think Liberals for 2025 need to hope Tories continue to keep choosing unelectable leaders (and good chance they do) and too many are uncomfortable with NDP winning.  With large deficit, unless growth ends up being much stronger than anticipated, tough choices will have to be made.  Very few spending cuts are popular.  For tax hikes, only popular ones are wealth tax, raising income tax for top earners, and corporate tax hike.  And problem for all three is none raise a whole lot of revenue.  First two due to fact we don't have a lot of wealthy and they can just re-arrange their financial affairs to lower taxable income/wealth means amount of revenue raised likely to be smaller than estimated.  Off course this ignores other option if too high some may just move elsewhere, especially as most in this group can work remotely.  Final one does actually have potential to raise a fair bit of revenue, but corporations are highly mobile so can move elsewhere although if Biden succeeds in raising corporate rates, may give our government some room to raise them, but not by too much. 

Bigger problem there is corporate tax revenue is highly volatile.  It tends to be highest during booms when government least needs revenue while lowest during recessions when most need it (during recessions most corporations pay no tax as most aren't profitable therefore cannot be taxed).  So in summary if they go the tax hike route, likely have to do something very unpopular.  My guess is raise GST and while not a bad idea economically, likely costs them the 2025 election if done.  Unlike other taxes, GST hikes do raise a lot of revenue and most economists tend to like them.  Never mind when compared to OECD, our income and corporate rates are on the high side whereas our sales tax is on low side, but I am not sure average voter really cares about that.  Economists may, but average voter probably not.

Other is spending cuts, but again a lot of big ticket items not popular.  Cutting transfer payments like 90s I don't think would work as health care costs rising rapidly with age so I suspect political costs would be much higher if that is done again.  Cutting military is one and that actually might be the easiest politically.  But could strain relations with allies since of NATO countries, Canada already has one of the lowest military spending levels.  There is OAS off course, but that is a political no go as seniors huge voting bloc and mess around with them pay a price.  While either raising retirement age or lowering maximum income to claim OAS would be wise, not sure either would go over well with voters.  For first might only be feasible if far enough in future in which case not going to help now.  Beyond those three, cannot think of any more big spending ticket items they can cut.

Now other option is pray we have growth like we've never seen before.  If we can have 3-4% growth per year over next decade, then no need for tax hikes or spending cuts.  But I think chances of that are slim to none.  Finally inflation could be a problem if it persists.  Possible just happening due to timeframe as a year ago many things were shutdown whereas now with vaccines we are seeing inflation more as a result of things re-opening so once everyone is vaccinated and everything re-open, it will fall back to 2%.  But if it doesn't means interest rate hikes at some point likely and that could be problematic as consumer debt record high.  Would though help lower housing prices so good for millennials who struggle to afford them, but could anger many boomers who use their home as main asset to fund retirement so won't be happy to see values fall even if they are over inflated.  And on this front, maybe decide to have primary residential tax for sales, but I think any politician who tries this, can kiss the 905 and Lower Mainland goodbye.  Even if they let you deduct mortgage interest like US does to soften blow, I don't see this going over well.  Ironically most OECD countries tax sale of primary residences, Canada and UK are amongst the few that do not.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

Ignoring some small countries where every party calls itself socialist or social democratic or whatever (IIRC that’s the case in Guyana, Nepal, etc), Chile’s constituent assembly elections saw the right get about 20% of the vote.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

Ignoring some small countries where every party calls itself socialist or social democratic or whatever (IIRC that’s the case in Guyana, Nepal, etc), Chile’s constituent assembly elections saw the right get about 20% of the vote.

Very few do.  Now off course these are just polls not election results.  I do believe between 1995-2000 there were some polls in UK that had Tories in low 20s even though 30.7% was the lowest they ever got, that being in 1997.  But still does show if these pan out in general election, you are seeing a big shift left.  Whether permanent or temporary blip due to pandemic hard to say.

[King of Kensington]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

NDP at record heights ? Meaning...above the 30% they received in 2011?  Also the NDP polled in the high 30s in the late 1980s under Broadbent and going into the 2015 election.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

NDP at record heights ? Meaning...above the 30% they received in 2011?  Also the NDP polled in the high 30s in the late 1980s under Broadbent and going into the 2015 election.

No far from it, but closest NDP has been to Tories in a while.  Yes right after Layton died, again when Mulcair became leader and from Alberta 2015 election until around Labour Day, NDP was in lead.  But it is record lows for Tories.  I think only time combined right this bad was right after merger but before sponsorship scandal when Martin in his honeymoon and other time was from about 1990-1993 when Mulroney became super unpopular.

[Hatman 🍁]

Usually when the NDP polls well, it's at the expense of the Liberals. It will be much harder for the NDP to pick up a lot of seats at the expense of the Tories. The Tories possibly dropping to third would be truly bizarre. You have to go back to Ontario 1990 for a parallel.

[mileslunn]

Usually when the NDP polls well, it's at the expense of the Liberals. It will be much harder for the NDP to pick up a lot of seats at the expense of the Tories. The Tories possibly dropping to third would be truly bizarre. You have to go back to Ontario 1990 for a parallel.

Even if Tories got fewer votes than NDP, would probably still get more seats as their support is more concentrated.  Its interesting that looking through 2019 results, they could plunge to low 20s and still get around 80 seats.  Problem is they would be irrelevant in large swaths of country so very tough to come back in 2025. 

Still NDP could gain some Tory seats in BC as while true unlike 90s, very few NDP-Tory switchers, you do have many NDP-Tory races and Liberal vote plays kingmaker in that if they fall, it depends on which side they break for and if rise, at whose expense. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

I think pollsters are hesitant to "make numbers up", so they just use the census. Turnout estimates are available from Elections Canada by age and gender, so pollsters can use that if they want, but not every elections agency provides that, and you're relying on the assumption that the turnout by age group is going to be the same for the next election.

That makes sense, and I imagine "who will turn out" is a hard question to answer in advance anyway. Who knows, maybe Singh's TikTok outreach will boost turnout among the 18-24 age group 

[King of Kensington]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

[Silent Hunter]

We know Carney well here; he used to be Governor of the Bank of England.

[King of Kensington]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

[mileslunn]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

I would say largely true.  Other wild card is BQ as realistically Liberals gaining more than 20 seats outside Quebec is a long shot.  Not impossible but not easy so if BQ say gets 45-50 seats then majority becomes very difficult and basically relies on NDP underperforming and Tories remaining at their rock bottom numbers.

While polls can change, I have a tough time envisioning Tories denying them a majority.  Only way I could see that being remotely feasible is if a fourth wave hits before election called so Trudeau postpones it and election gets held in 2022 or 2023.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

*crying Liberal noises*

It's a shame, but understandable. Guys had a successful nonpartisan career, jumping into partisan politics isn't always an easy thing for technocrats like Carney. I hope he still plays a strong advisory role in this government though.

I dont usually support importing American ideas into Canadian politics, but I would prefer a Westminster-American hybrid system where cabinet can include both parliamentarians and non-parliamentarians (the latter requiring a confirmation vote)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

I would say largely true.  Other wild card is BQ as realistically Liberals gaining more than 20 seats outside Quebec is a long shot.  Not impossible but not easy so if BQ say gets 45-50 seats then majority becomes very difficult and basically relies on NDP underperforming and Tories remaining at their rock bottom numbers.

While polls can change, I have a tough time envisioning Tories denying them a majority.  Only way I could see that being remotely feasible is if a fourth wave hits before election called so Trudeau postpones it and election gets held in 2022 or 2023.

And BQ's trajectory is even harder to predict. Minority governments often force the Bloc to work with the government of the day, and we saw in the Harper minorities this greatly hurt their appeal to disgruntled Quebecers. Blanchet has been much more successful than Duceppe in adapting the Bloc to a more "Quebec interests" position than "Quebec grievances"

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/jamespmcleod/status/1417855005818826758

[mileslunn]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

I would say largely true.  Other wild card is BQ as realistically Liberals gaining more than 20 seats outside Quebec is a long shot.  Not impossible but not easy so if BQ say gets 45-50 seats then majority becomes very difficult and basically relies on NDP underperforming and Tories remaining at their rock bottom numbers.

While polls can change, I have a tough time envisioning Tories denying them a majority.  Only way I could see that being remotely feasible is if a fourth wave hits before election called so Trudeau postpones it and election gets held in 2022 or 2023.

And BQ's trajectory is even harder to predict. Minority governments often force the Bloc to work with the government of the day, and we saw in the Harper minorities this greatly hurt their appeal to disgruntled Quebecers. Blanchet has been much more successful than Duceppe in adapting the Bloc to a more "Quebec interests" position than "Quebec grievances"

Quebec just in general is unpredictable.  Quebecers are known for massive swings towards one party often mid way through a campaign.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-more-canadians-believe-ndps-singh-would-make-a-better-pm-than-tories/ .  Seems to say what Nanos is showing otherwise no one likes O'Toole.  This sort of reminds me of 2008 for Liberals where pre-campaign Tories and Liberals were close but Dion's personal #'s in basement or 2014 Ontario where PCs lead many pre-election polls but Hudak's #'s in basement.  While perceptions can change, if best PM numbers hold, its likely NDP gains while Tories fall even further.  I doubt Tories get fewer seats than NDP, but fewer votes certainly a possibility.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-more-canadians-believe-ndps-singh-would-make-a-better-pm-than-tories/ .  Seems to say what Nanos is showing otherwise no one likes O'Toole.  This sort of reminds me of 2008 for Liberals where pre-campaign Tories and Liberals were close but Dion's personal #'s in basement or 2014 Ontario where PCs lead many pre-election polls but Hudak's #'s in basement.  While perceptions can change, if best PM numbers hold, its likely NDP gains while Tories fall even further.  I doubt Tories get fewer seats than NDP, but fewer votes certainly a possibility.

It's worse than Dion or Hudak in the sense that not only are his personal numbers bad, so are the party's (though not quite as). LPC 2008 and PCPO 2014, as you said, were close pre-campaign.

My comparison would actually be BC 2020. The centre-right party is down in the polls, and the leader is pretty broadly disliked with worse numbers than the party. The difference is on the left, while Horgan and BCNDP were pretty popular going into the campaign, Trudeau's net approval is about even and LPC isn't in decisively in majority territory like BCNDP was. But on the right, O'Toole's CPC situation feels a bit like Wilkinson's BCLP situation a year ago

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Although as a column posted here some time ago suggested, the situation's a bit like the 1970s, in that the LPC is led by a Trudeau who polarizes public opinion, but the Conservatives are struggling to find their sweet spot.

I find it annoying when old-timer columnists try to make forced Pierre-Justin comparisons, but there does seem to be a familiar pattern here. 2015 was a bit like 1968, where a charismatic 40-something named Trudeau ran a successful campaign mainly centred around his personality. 2019 like 1972 reflected disillusionment with Trudeau, but the Tories didn't seem ready to govern and a major province held firm for the Liberals (Quebec for Pierre, Ontario for Justin), leading to a minority - though a much stronger one for Justin. Seems like 2021 will be 1974, where Trudeau isnt quite as popular but the alternative is still struggling.

Following that pattern, 2021 will be an election where the LPC wins back its majority. By that pattern 2025 will be 1979 (not 2026 because 5 year terms aren't really a thing anymore), and a relatively unknown Tory leader gets them a victory. But that Tory government falls in 2026, like 1980, and the LPC not having had the time to replace Trudeau brings him back. Now 54 (61 in Pierre's case), now-elder statesman Trudeau wins the LPC another majority. It ends up being the most consequential Trudeau term, leading to constitutional reform but also a lot of controversy. Justin calls it quits in 2030, like Pierre did in 1984, and the Tories sweep to a majority after years of struggles.

Not a prediction and there are plenty of differences too, but boy would it be really interesting.