Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

[MaxQue]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1417930313204895750

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

Ford perhaps, but Mulroney has been pretty good on this and her father still well liked in Quebec.  Agree Ford is not popular with Francophones but not sure how much his mistakes have rubbed off on others.  Unlike say Lecce, Mulroney has largely stayed out of trouble.

[MaxQue]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

Ford perhaps, but Mulroney has been pretty good on this and her father still well liked in Quebec.  Agree Ford is not popular with Francophones but not sure how much his mistakes have rubbed off on others.  Unlike say Lecce, Mulroney has largely stayed out of trouble.

She is the French Affairs minister and never said a word against said policies and applied them without making a noise.

[Estrella]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

[Estrella]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

You don't understand. The Québecois speak French (supposedly). This bestows upon them, à la fois, a tremendous superiority and a tremendous victim complex. It's just innate.

Funny how this criticism of language situtation before the Quiet Revolution also happens to be a perfect description of France's treatment of her own minority languages.

_{Lalonde would've been crucified for this today - OQLF types need a fainting couch when they hear someone mix English and French.}

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

Ford perhaps, but Mulroney has been pretty good on this and her father still well liked in Quebec.  Agree Ford is not popular with Francophones but not sure how much his mistakes have rubbed off on others.  Unlike say Lecce, Mulroney has largely stayed out of trouble.

Is Mulroney still liked in Quebec? Regardless, the Mulroney name is still pretty toxic to a lot of older folks, at least in the rest of Canada. He was a decent PM in my opinion, but people who lived through the Mulroney years associate them with a pretty rough time for Canada.

Plus I don't think Caroline Mulroney is particularly interesting beyond her last name. Justin benefited from his last name too, but he's also very good at retail politics which I don't think Caroline is.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

That's nationalism for ya.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

If we're keeping with the Joe Clark theme, how colossally bad is he at managing crucial confidence votes?

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

If we're keeping with the Joe Clark theme, how colossally bad is he at managing crucial confidence votes?

He could have had a majority if he got the 6 Social Credit MPs to form a coalition with him and with only 2 seats in Quebec, that might have been a smart move.

[mileslunn]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/poll-stephen-harper-would-change-this-election/ar-AAMs6UV?ocid=msedgntp which is interesting.  On one hand Trudeau still wins, but does seem Harper does better than O'Toole and at least gets party back to what it got in 2015 and close to 2019.  That has both good and bad news for Tories:

Bad news is they need to change to win again, Harper model doesn't work.

Good news is fact party does better suggests O'Toole has reason to believe party numbers will rise once campaign starts and he becomes more known so while still uphill battle to win outright, at least might not do as poorly as polls suggest now.

[Benjamin Frank]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

*crying Liberal noises*

It's a shame, but understandable. Guys had a successful nonpartisan career, jumping into partisan politics isn't always an easy thing for technocrats like Carney. I hope he still plays a strong advisory role in this government though.

I dont usually support importing American ideas into Canadian politics, but I would prefer a Westminster-American hybrid system where cabinet can include both parliamentarians and non-parliamentarians (the latter requiring a confirmation vote)

I realize you are implicitly referring to this, but there can be no hybrid because the Westminster system requires accountability from ministers by being available to answer questions in Parliament.  However, Marc Carney (or any other Canadian) could be made a minister by being appointed to the Senate.  This procedure has declined in recent years in Canada, and I believe Justin Trudeau has said that he won't do it, but Pierre Trudeau had a number of ministers in the Senate from the Western provinces where he had few or zero  M.Ps to choose from.

Stephen Harper appointed Michel Fortier to the Senate as a cabinet minister to try to give the city of Montreal representation in his cabinet.

There was, of course, also recent discussion of separating the duties of the Attorney General from the Minister of Justice, as well as maybe the duties of the Solicitor General from the Public Safety Minister and having the Attorney General and Solicitor General be members of the Canadian Senate, similar to the U.K and the House of Lords.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

If we're keeping with the Joe Clark theme, how colossally bad is he at managing crucial confidence votes?

He'd have to be pretty bad to be Joe Clark bad.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

*crying Liberal noises*

It's a shame, but understandable. Guys had a successful nonpartisan career, jumping into partisan politics isn't always an easy thing for technocrats like Carney. I hope he still plays a strong advisory role in this government though.

I dont usually support importing American ideas into Canadian politics, but I would prefer a Westminster-American hybrid system where cabinet can include both parliamentarians and non-parliamentarians (the latter requiring a confirmation vote)

I realize you are implicitly referring to this, but there can be no hybrid because the Westminster system requires accountability from ministers by being available to answer questions in Parliament.  However, Marc Carney (or any other Canadian) could be made a minister by being appointed to the Senate.  This procedure has declined in recent years in Canada, and I believe Justin Trudeau has said that he won't do it, but Pierre Trudeau had a number of ministers in the Senate from the Western provinces where he had few or zero  M.Ps to choose from.

Stephen Harper appointed Michel Fortier to the Senate as a cabinet minister to try to give the city of Montreal representation in his cabinet.

There was, of course, also recent discussion of separating the duties of the Attorney General from the Minister of Justice, as well as maybe the duties of the Solicitor General from the Public Safety Minister and having the Attorney General and Solicitor General be members of the Canadian Senate, similar to the U.K and the House of Lords.

Riiiight, Senators. I forgot those existed.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/poll-stephen-harper-would-change-this-election/ar-AAMs6UV?ocid=msedgntp which is interesting.  On one hand Trudeau still wins, but does seem Harper does better than O'Toole and at least gets party back to what it got in 2015 and close to 2019.  That has both good and bad news for Tories:

Bad news is they need to change to win again, Harper model doesn't work.

Good news is fact party does better suggests O'Toole has reason to believe party numbers will rise once campaign starts and he becomes more known so while still uphill battle to win outright, at least might not do as poorly as polls suggest now.

I don't think hypothetical questions of this sort are often very useful.

[Estrella]

I have several questions.

[MaxQue]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

You don't understand. The Québecois speak French (supposedly). This bestows upon them, à la fois, a tremendous superiority and a tremendous victim complex. It's just innate.

Funny how this criticism of language situtation before the Quiet Revolution also happens to be a perfect description of France's treatment of her own minority languages.

_{Lalonde would've been crucified for this today - OQLF types need a fainting couch when they hear someone mix English and French.}

Troubling timing, as it was just announced she died yesterday.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The hypothetical Harper poll by Innovative is interesting, but probably not very helpful. It's almost like the "Generic Democrat/Republican" polls in the states (not exactly because people know Harper, but still, it's much easier to support a hypothetical than in reality).

Harper nostalgia may rally the CPC vote and get them back to that 30% base, but for progressives (who are the majority in Canada), he represents the kind of politics they don't want to return to. If soft NDP and Bloc supporters rally around the Liberals, a slight increase in Tory turnout won't mean squat.

Nostalgia is one hell of a drug. Like any recreational drug, it's fun for the moment but can do serious damage on the long run. The Conservative movement is still stuck in his shadow, if they bring him back it will be even harder to modernize and fit the context of 2020s Canada.

[mileslunn]

The hypothetical Harper poll by Innovative is interesting, but probably not very helpful. It's almost like the "Generic Democrat/Republican" polls in the states (not exactly because people know Harper, but still, it's much easier to support a hypothetical than in reality).

Harper nostalgia may rally the CPC vote and get them back to that 30% base, but for progressives (who are the majority in Canada), he represents the kind of politics they don't want to return to. If soft NDP and Bloc supporters rally around the Liberals, a slight increase in Tory turnout won't mean squat.

Nostalgia is one hell of a drug. Like any recreational drug, it's fun for the moment but can do serious damage on the long run. The Conservative movement is still stuck in his shadow, if they bring him back it will be even harder to modernize and fit the context of 2020s Canada.

Agreed, I think most Canadians want to move beyond Harper and yes he can rally base, but I don't think he can win a general election as you mention.  That being said Tories always have problem in sense more Canadians lean left than right and getting right splits never easy.  But at least someone more moderate helps although still may not be enough.

[Estrella]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

You don't understand. The Québecois speak French (supposedly). This bestows upon them, à la fois, a tremendous superiority and a tremendous victim complex. It's just innate.

Funny how this criticism of language situtation before the Quiet Revolution also happens to be a perfect description of France's treatment of her own minority languages.

_{Lalonde would've been crucified for this today - OQLF types need a fainting couch when they hear someone mix English and French.}

Troubling timing, as it was just announced she died yesterday.

[CascadianIndy]

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/07/political-landscape-on-verge-of-potential-election/

New EKOS poll didn't show the NDP at 2nd place result that Frank Graves rumoured could happen on Twitter, but does show other interesting things.

Topline:
LPC 35.2
CPC 27.7
NDP 18.5
GPC 5.2
BQ 5.6
PPC 4.5

Most notable is the PPC leapfrogging the Bloc and the Greens in support. The Bloc number is probably an outlier, but I can absolutely buy the PPC getting more votes than the Greens in the next election, even if they win zero ridings.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/07/political-landscape-on-verge-of-potential-election/

New EKOS poll didn't show the NDP at 2nd place result that Frank Graves rumoured could happen on Twitter, but does show other interesting things.

Topline:
LPC 35.2
CPC 27.7
NDP 18.5
GPC 5.2
BQ 5.6
PPC 4.5

Most notable is the PPC leapfrogging the Bloc and the Greens in support. The Bloc number is probably an outlier, but I can absolutely buy the PPC getting more votes than the Greens in the next election, even if they win zero ridings.

Seems pretty close to the polling consensus atm, other than the rather low Bloc number. With those regionals though, namely double-digit leads in both Ontario and Quebec, I think the Liberals would win a majority.