🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

RIP Franzi.

I guess the CDU will win this because their candidate is unknown and a the city state is just poorly managed and has been for a while. Maybe the SPD off power for a term is good for them here, although I sincerely doubt the CDU will get much done.

Perhaps Berlin should be governed by cabinet of technocrats for while who don't have ambitions and just want to solve problems with different support in the legislature.

Forsa is being Forsa and almost every article I read on tagesspiegel.de or rbb24.de recently seemed to work on the assumption that Gifffey is still favored to, well not "win", but to remain mayor in a decimated red-green-red coalition. This is due to lack of political parties who would want to govern with the CDU (in the SPD's case, due to their desire to retain the mayorship and not become a junior partner) or the FDP (in the Greens' case, due to fundamental differences on transportation and mobility issues).

[Middle-aged Europe]

INSA poll for Berlin

CDU 25%
SPD 19%
Greens 18%
Left 12%
AfD 10%
FDP 6%


SPD and Greens ended their campaigns on particularly chummy terms where I think it has been stressed enough already now that a government doesn't necessarily have to be led by the strongest party (like the SPD did on the federal level three out of four timed between '69 and '82). CDU and FDP will almost certainly cry a lot about a "coalition of losers" and such.

[President Johnson]

Seems like the polls here herding, CDU most likely to come out on top. The question is by how much and whether R2G can justify to continue their coalition.

There was a similar situation in Bremen after the 2019 election, though the CDU just won a plurality by one point.

[jaichind]

INSA poll for Berlin

CDU 25%
SPD 19%
Greens 18%
Left 12%
AfD 10%
FDP 6%


SPD and Greens ended their campaigns on particularly chummy terms where I think it has been stressed enough already now that a government doesn't necessarily have to be led by the strongest party (like the SPD did on the federal level three out of four timed between '69 and '82). CDU and FDP will almost certainly cry a lot about a "coalition of losers" and such.

It seems that this poll has a large percentage of votes for "others."  Any chance a lot of them will shift their vote to parties that can be above 5% last minute? If so which parties will that benefit ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Final Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for Berlin

CDU 25%
SPD 21%
Greens 17%
Left 11%
AfD 10%
FDP 6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

INSA poll for Berlin

CDU 25%
SPD 19%
Greens 18%
Left 12%
AfD 10%
FDP 6%


SPD and Greens ended their campaigns on particularly chummy terms where I think it has been stressed enough already now that a government doesn't necessarily have to be led by the strongest party (like the SPD did on the federal level three out of four timed between '69 and '82). CDU and FDP will almost certainly cry a lot about a "coalition of losers" and such.

It seems that this poll has a large percentage of votes for "others."  Any chance a lot of them will shift their vote to parties that can be above 5% last minute? If so which parties will that benefit ?

Almost certainly not. If there were another party who had a shot at entering the parliament it would register in the poll, like it did with the Pirates back in 2011.

That's a common Berlin phenomenon, actually. In the 2021 election, the combined vote share of the parties who didn't manage to pass the 5% threshold was 12.5%. The strongest among these were: Animal Protection Party 2.2%, Die PARTEI 1.8%, dieBasis 1.3%, Volt 1.1%, Team Todenhöfer 1.0%, Free Voters 0.8%, The Greys 0.7%, Grey Panthers 0.5%...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD and Greens ended their campaigns on particularly chummy terms where I think it has been stressed enough already now that a government doesn't necessarily have to be led by the strongest party (like the SPD did on the federal level three out of four timed between '69 and '82). CDU and FDP will almost certainly cry a lot about a "coalition of losers" and such.

I don't know if Clarko has already mentioned it, but since it's a repeat election instead of a snap election, the Senate (= government) will remain in office after the election; no new governing mayor will be elected after the election
The only way Dr. Giffey can be overturned is through the "conventional" methods, i.e. resignation or a constructive vote of no-confidence.
The Governing Mayor*in, however, has already announced that she is going to deliberately flout the will of the electorate, no matter what.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile, the SPD has changed the order of priorities.

Administrative reform? Nope.
Educational reform? Nope.
Affordable housing? Nope.
Debt reduction? Nooooooooooooo!!! (Böriners love to live off them Bavarians and Swabians.)

The SPD has discovered its campaign issue No. 1...

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The first thing that came to mind was that that election poster must be sloganeered by DIE PARTEI. But no, it's indeed real - just like these two gems...

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Favorability ratings:



Preferred mayor:

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

why is the FDP doing so bad in Berlin compared to the AFD and CDU ?, I thought it would do well with "Boba" or socially liberal professionals who seem to be common over there ?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

why is the FDP doing so bad in Berlin compared to the AFD and CDU ?, I thought it would do well with "Boba" or socially liberal professionals who seem to be common over there ?

Berlin is a very poor city and its citizens are deemed to be quite indolent and educationally alienated. Not a good sociocultural matrix for a party of top performers like the FDP.
Further, the neo-liberal and once neo-conservative FDP contributes to the socialist and woke agenda of the federal Ampel government (which is in fact a red-green minority government supported by the FDP), which put off many of their base voters.

Btw, fwiw, the top candidate of the FDP, Sebastian Czaja, is the younger brother of Mario Czaja, the secretary general of the CDU.

[Isaak]

why is the FDP doing so bad in Berlin compared to the AFD and CDU ?, I thought it would do well with "Boba" or socially liberal professionals who seem to be common over there ?

These professionals tend to support the Greens rather than the FDP – in Berlin more than elsewhere. The city is also traditionally left-wing and poorer than Frankfurt or Munich.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

why is the FDP doing so bad in Berlin compared to the AFD and CDU ?, I thought it would do well with "Boba" or socially liberal professionals who seem to be common over there ?

These professionals tend to support the Greens rather than the FDP – in Berlin more than elsewhere. The city is also traditionally left-wing and poorer than Frankfurt or Munich.

There's also a bit of self-selection going on, from what I understand. Berlin in general attracts more left-leaning people while right-leaning people are more likely to avoid it.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Anywho, Morgenpost has compiled a decent run-down of each parties' election platform:


The super-quick rundown of all parties : https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237447711/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramme-parteien-konflikte-waehler-vergleich.html


SPD: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237399065/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramm-spd-buergermeister-senat-parteien.html
CDU: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237400849/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramm-cdu-partei-wahlwiederholung-ueberblick.html
Greens: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237401409/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramm-gruene-parteien-politiker-koalition.html
Die Linke: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237402403/berlin-wahl-2023-linken-wahlprogramm-partei-wahlkampf-klaus-lederer.html
AfD: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237430611/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramm-afd-buergermeister-wiederholung.html
FDP: https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article237403313/berlin-wahl-2023-wahlprogramm-fdp-partei-abgeordnetenhaus.html

Once again, given my personal preference for building more housing instead of expropriation, building more subways, having more frequent busses, and building more schools and hiring more teachers, I align most closely with....SPD and CDU. Of course, the last time the CDU governed Berlin, they bankrupted the city, so...

[Middle-aged Europe]

why is the FDP doing so bad in Berlin compared to the AFD and CDU ?, I thought it would do well with "Boba" or socially liberal professionals who seem to be common over there ?

These professionals tend to support the Greens rather than the FDP – in Berlin more than elsewhere. The city is also traditionally left-wing and poorer than Frankfurt or Munich.

This.

My personal impression with people who I've met in Berlin over the years who have worked as "startup founders" or self-employed - often in the tech sector - was that they tend to gravitate towards the Greens rather than the FDP around here, although I would also characterize these people more like centrist Habeck/Özdemir/Kretschmann-type Greens (I guess the reference to Özdemir/Kretschmann means they can also be found in Stuttgart a lot??). Could overlap with the classic latte liberal, of course. The stereotypical Green voter in that group would own a very expensive bicycle - or a Tesla if you will - and the stereotypical FDP voter still one or two Mercedes diesel limousines.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And that is the crucial poll question that will determine the today's election outcome.
Law and order is the key issue in a Berlin state election for the very first time.

That's because of the gold pieces that attacked my uniformed colleagues on New Year's Eve - a topic that wouldn't have come up for discussion if it weren't for me.
According to the poll, Anis Amri's disciple, who murdered a young couple in cold blood and stabbed seven other people on a train in Brokstedt near Hamburg in January, will obviously influence the Berliners' vote decisions - a topic that wouldn't have come up for discussion if it weren't for me.
Lyndon's Jusos and Old Europe's Green Youth still consider tackling this issue "RaCiSt™" and "IsLaMoPhObIc™" up to this date.

May I ask if you even dealt with the infamous 2016 Cologne New Year's Eve?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

RBB reports low voter turnout:

Participation in the repeat election in Berlin was 23.4 percent on Sunday afternoon (12 noon) . As the state returning authority announced on Sunday, 25.1 percent of those entitled to vote had cast their votes by the same time in 2016. There are no real comparative figures from the 2021 election: At that time, only the value for the federal election that was taking place at the same time was determined; this was 27.4 percent.

According to the state returning officer, 341,404 of those entitled to vote in the House of Representatives cast their votes in polling stations by noon. The highest voter turnout was up to 12 p.m. in the Steglitz-Zehlendorf district - at 25.7 percent, the lowest in Mitte at 20.3 percent.

Before these figures were announced, state returning officer Stephan Bröchler said he was expecting a turnout of 55 to 60 percent over the entire election day . This assumption is based on conversations he conducted. In the 2021 election, turnout was around 75 percent.

Around 2.43 million people can cast their votes in the repeat elections for the Berlin House of Representatives . That is around 15,800 fewer eligible voters than in the September 2021 election, as the state returning officer announced on Saturday. A polling card had already been issued for around 31 percent of those entitled to vote - i.e. for a postal vote or an early election on site.

Around 2.73 million people are entitled to vote in the district assembly . This number is higher because 16 and 17 year olds as well as foreign EU citizens living in Berlin aged 16 and over can also vote here.

Regarding the mood of Berlin voters:

In the pre-election survey that infratest dimap conducted among several thousand eligible voters between February 6 and 8, only 24 percent of the participants stated that they were satisfied or very satisfied with the work of the SPD, Greens and Left Party. This makes the red-green-red coalition in Berlin by far the most unpopular state government in Germany.

Approval values ​​of 75 percent, as they are for the black-green coalition in Schleswig-Holstein, or the 66 percent approval for the Hamburg Senate are currently out of reach for the Berlin coalition. The government of the capital is even more unpopular than the state government in Bremen, which is second to last nationwide with approval of 34 percent.

Among party supporters, SPD voters are the most satisfied with the current government's policies in Berlin, at 53 percent. Green voters, on the other hand, are mostly dissatisfied with 43 percent approval. However, voters on the Berlin left are particularly disappointed, two-thirds of whom said they were dissatisfied with the Senate's work. The satisfaction of the supporters of the opposition is expectedly low at six to ten percent.

Giffey is not well-liked, but her competition is disliked even more:

On the one hand, 36 percent of those surveyed rate the work of the Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD) positively, putting the social democrat ahead of her competitors Kai Wegner (CDU, 23 percent) and Bettina Jarasch (Greens, 19 percent), Klaus Lederer (Left 34 percent), Sebastian Czaja (FDP, 25 percent) and Kristin Brinker (7 percent).

In a nationwide comparison, Giffey is in last place. The heads of government achieved the following values ​​before the last election in the respective federal state: Daniel Günther (Schleswig-Holstein, 75 percent), Manuela Schwesig (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, 71 percent), Winfried Kretschmann (Baden-Württemberg, 71 percent) and Michael Kretschmar (Saxony, 71 percent). In Bremen, which is directly ahead of Berlin in the ranking, Mayor Carsten Sieling (SPD) also had a higher approval rating of 41 percent.

Regarding issues such as expanding the A100 motorway or expropriating large housing companies:

53 percent of those surveyed said the further expansion of the A100 autobahn was right, while 36 percent said it was wrong. Support for the route construction is particularly strong among supporters of the opposition parties CDU (83 percent), FDP (76 percent) and AfD (66 percent), and 59 percent of the SPD voters surveyed also support the project. However, the expansion is unpopular with voters for the Greens (18 percent approval) and Left (26 percent).

45 percent of all respondents across party lines called the expansion of cycle paths at the expense of car traffic the right thing to do. Almost half of Berliners are critical of the project. The expansion of cycle paths is particularly popular with voters from the Greens (92 percent) and the Left (71 percent). Supporters of the Social Democrats were more skeptical on this point, every second SPD voter described the expansion of cycle paths at the expense of car traffic as wrong. The rejection is even clearer among voters from the CDU (81 percent), AfD (77 percent) and FDP (71 percent).

The mood is also mixed with regard to the expropriation of large housing companies . 45 percent of those surveyed think the measure is right, 46 percent reject the project. The biggest advocates of expropriation are voters on the Left (80 percent) and the Greens (60 percent). The supporters of the SPD are just as divided on the expansion of the cycle paths: 45 percent were in favor of expropriations, 48 ​​percent against. Around a third of the voters for the AfD (37 percent) and the liberal-business Berlin FDP (34 percent) would like the expropriation of large housing companies. This measure is least popular among voters for the CDU, of whom 72 percent are against it .

https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/abgeordnetenhaus/agh-2023/beitraege/berlin-vorwahlbefragung-infratest-berlinwahl-2023.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I remember when I was lambasted for criticizing Berlin's grossly inefficient bureaucratic machinery...


https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/kriminalitaet/mitglied-des-remmo-clans-setzt-sich-ab-18672846.html

The problem has actually been known for a long time. It was only in November that the presidency of the Berlin regional court reported in a letter, according to the "Tagesspiegel", that the chambers for the execution of sentences dreaded the concrete danger that "the deficiencies described" could lead to the legal assessment that "adequate treatment of detainees is not guaranteed" in the penitentiary system. This could “result in the release of inmates who are dangerous to the general public”. The health administration led by the Greens, which is responsible for the hospital of the forensic prison, then declared that all possibilities to redistribute the inmates within the overcrowded hospital were "exhausted without alternative". The necessary 46 million euros in the state budget were missing to expand another building.

Thank you, Mrs. Gote! 👏🏻

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the results from the last House of Representatives election. (Yes, that's the literal translation of that chamber's name):

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Let me remind you that this is not a snap election, but a repeat election. For this reason, the Senate (= government) will remain in office after the election, until Giffey resigns or gets voted out of office by the House of Representatives.

Further, the FDP must get at least 5% of the overall votes cast in order to enter parliament; unlike in all other states, 5% of the valid vote wouldn't be sufficient. I wonder if the election reporters are aware of that Berlin-specific fact.

[Oryxslayer]

Regarding the mood of Berlin voters:

In the pre-election survey that infratest dimap conducted among several thousand eligible voters between February 6 and 8, only 24 percent of the participants stated that they were satisfied or very satisfied with the work of the SPD, Greens and Left Party. This makes the red-green-red coalition in Berlin by far the most unpopular state government in Germany.

Approval values ​​of 75 percent, as they are for the black-green coalition in Schleswig-Holstein, or the 66 percent approval for the Hamburg Senate are currently out of reach for the Berlin coalition. The government of the capital is even more unpopular than the state government in Bremen, which is second to last nationwide with approval of 34 percent.

Among party supporters, SPD voters are the most satisfied with the current government's policies in Berlin, at 53 percent. Green voters, on the other hand, are mostly dissatisfied with 43 percent approval. However, voters on the Berlin left are particularly disappointed, two-thirds of whom said they were dissatisfied with the Senate's work. The satisfaction of the supporters of the opposition is expectedly low at six to ten percent.

The following quotes are interesting cause it does suggest that this could be 'change' election. However that slams headfirst into the idea that R2G doesn't want to break up even with German political traditions and the Union potentially about to receive the best single party result in Berlin in a decade. I'm sure the positioning afterwards will give some indications, but dodging the will of the voters generally doesn't work out in the long run.

[DavidB.]

According to an exit poll just shown on ZDF, Giffey (SPD) has an approval rate of 51/40.

[President Johnson]

First projection:

[President Johnson]

So Giffey should be done and not remain in office, although R2G has a majority still. And I'm saying this as SPD member.

[DavidB.]

Interesting how AfD are relatively low at 9% while in national polls they are at about 15%. Clearly lower than the 14% they got in Berlin in September 2016, when their national polling numbers were even slightly lower than now. Either this indicates they are being overpolled nationally right now, or their voter base has shifted further towards a type of voter that is less present in Berlin. Are East Berlin voters less likely to be pro-Russia than other East German voters?