🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The FDP should just go all the way on nuclear energy. Twist the SPD and the Greens' arm and don't just keep the current power plants open, but actually open some of the closed ones within one year. It'll cost a lot of money but so did the Energiewende, and I don't buy that it's technically impossible. We're in a continental crisis in which all existing taboos should be rethought. It's the right thing to do and it'll show right-wing voters they still have some balls.

I would like to see this too, but it feels like German society is quite viscerally anti-nuclear and this is an extremely broad and deep sentiment. And knowing the stubbornness of Germans, I am pessimistic on this changing.

I also wonder if we can really say that this is also something that won't backfire on the FDP, because keeping open the nuclear power plant in Niedersachsen was an issue in the state election and yet the Greens surged and FDP lost. The federal Greens also seem like they will never, ever accept reopening new power plants and yet people keep voting for them. And I haven't seen any polling showing major changes in how Germans view nuclear energy.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The FDP should just go all the way on nuclear energy. Twist the SPD and the Greens' arm and don't just keep the current power plants open, but actually open some of the closed ones within one year. It'll cost a lot of money but so did the Energiewende, and I don't buy that it's technically impossible. We're in a continental crisis in which all existing taboos should be rethought. It's the right thing to do and it'll show right-wing voters they still have some balls.

Is nuclear power actually popular with the German right? My impression was that scepticism of it across the political spectrum was higher in Germany than elsewhere.

[palandio]

[...]

I am one of those SPD supporters they should be wary of, but I'll try to be objective:

[...]

Don't get me wrong, yours seems like a fair assessment to me.

My impression was just that in general many ideas what the FDP should do or shouldn't do are not presented in good faith. "The FDP should become like us (Greens or SPD) because look how successful we are" won't play it because Green and SPD sympathizers will stay with the original. At the same time many who propose a shift to the right won't vote for the FDP as long as it stays in a coalition that inevitably enacts a lot of Red-Green policies. And leaving that coalition now is problematic for the reasons you named.

[Umengus]

The FDP should just go all the way on nuclear energy. Twist the SPD and the Greens' arm and don't just keep the current power plants open, but actually open some of the closed ones within one year. It'll cost a lot of money but so did the Energiewende, and I don't buy that it's technically impossible. We're in a continental crisis in which all existing taboos should be rethought. It's the right thing to do and it'll show right-wing voters they still have some balls.

I would like to see this too, but it feels like German society is quite viscerally anti-nuclear and this is an extremely broad and deep sentiment. And knowing the stubbornness of Germans, I am pessimistic on this changing.

I also wonder if we can really say that this is also something that won't backfire on the FDP, because keeping open the nuclear power plant in Niedersachsen was an issue in the state election and yet the Greens surged and FDP lost. The federal Greens also seem like they will never, ever accept reopening new power plants and yet people keep voting for them. And I haven't seen any polling showing major changes in how Germans view nuclear energy.

wrong

https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/weekly-data-shift-in-germanys-perception-of-nuclear-energy

[Yeahsayyeah]

Yeah, that's a shock-shift related to the stoked fear of "their will be widespread blackouts in winter". One can contrast this with the Fukushima-related schock-shift of about 80 per cent wanting to abandon nuclear energy.

Aside from these schock-shifts the public opinion measured by polls usually was a slight minority to majority for the actual phase-out scenario with one in fourth to one in three wanting to stretch the phase-out longer and about 20 per cent who are pro-nuclear-energy in the sense that they want new reactors to be built. So it was basically seen as a settled issue in Germany before February 2022 as there are more people being strongly against nuclear power as strongly in favor, many don't have strong opinions unless problems occurr and the building of new nuclear power plants hasn't been exactly economically feasible for decades and isn't even wanted by those who would have to build and operate them.

So the "big wedge issue" is now made to be, weither 3 power plants responsible for about six per cent of German electricity production should be operated for half a year or not.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Very, very, very bad news for PUTP and MAE, but good new for me, Baden-Württemberg and Germany: 😈

Germany's most popular Green politician, Boris Palmer, has won the mayoral election of the university city of Tübingen in the first rounds, despite the smear campaign by the Antifa and the left-green media. He has been mayor of Tübingen since 2007, and is one of the most potential hopefuls for Governor Kretschmann's succession.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh, before I forget, since this thread is also about local elections: There will be a recall election concerning Frankfurt's criminal and anti-social Mayor Peter Feldmann (SPD) on November 6. He has been governing Germany's fifth-most populous city for ten years.

[President Johnson]

Very, very, very bad news for PUTP and MAE, but good new for me, Baden-Württemberg and Germany: 😈

Germany's most popular Green politician, Boris Palmer, has won the mayoral election of the university city of Tübingen in the first rounds, despite the smear campaign by the Antifa and the left-green media. He has been mayor of Tübingen since 2007, and is one of the most potential hopefuls for Governor Kretschmann's succession.

I somehow still like him for most of the other stuff, especially for being a practical administrator. However, he will never be Minister-President, lmao.

I think Cem Özedmir has a good chance should Kretschmann, who's long post his prime and just became an old fool lately, step down before the end of his term. Özedmir would at least be my preferred candidate here.

[President Johnson]

Frankfurt Mayor Peter Feldman (SPD) has been recalled with 95% (!) of the vote after a long battle with the city council after alleged corruption. Furthermore, he was criticized for multiple occasions of inappropriate behavior during a soccer game as well as inappropriate comments towards female flight attendants. Political parties, including his own, called for his resignation months ago, but Feldmann refused to step down after a vote of no confidence by the city council. His refusal triggered the recall election, in which 30% of all eligible voters were required to vote him out, which just happened. A court trial with regard to corruption is still pending.

https://twitter.com/faznet/status/1589328345803755520

https://twitter.com/hanvoi/status/1589330269450166272

[DavidB.]

The sorry situation in the Bahnhofsviertel alone should have been reason to make him resign. The scenes in that place, with mass open heroin and crack use, defecated streets, needles everywhere etc. are a damning indictment on every single authority responsible, very much including the city government. Nowhere else in Europe have I witnessed anything like this. It reminds me of videos of Philadelphia.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Stephan Weil has been re-elected Minister President of Lower Saxony for the second time, with 82 out of 145 votes (with one MP not having cast a ballot), thus one vote more than his red-green coalition comprises representatives in parliament.

[Zinneke]

Frankfurt Mayor Peter Feldman (SPD) has been recalled with 95% (!) of the vote after a long battle with the city council after alleged corruption. Furthermore, he was criticized for multiple occasions of inappropriate behavior during a soccer game as well as inappropriate comments towards female flight attendants. Political parties, including his own, called for his resignation months ago, but Feldmann refused to step down after a vote of no confidence by the city council. His refusal triggered the recall election, in which 30% of all eligible voters were required to vote him out, which just happened. A court trial with regard to corruption is still pending.

https://twitter.com/faznet/status/1589328345803755520

https://twitter.com/hanvoi/status/1589330269450166272

He should be given the ultimate punishment and be made a season ticket holder at Kickers Offenbach

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Berlin Constitutional Court declared the WHOLE Berlin state election invalid and ruled that it has to be rerun ENTIRELY.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Berlin Constitutional Court declared the WHOLE Berlin state election invalid and ruled that it has to be rerun ENTIRELY.

Wow, that's pretty big.

Are there any past precedents for this?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wow, that's pretty big.

Are there any past precedents for this?

Yes, in Hamburg in the 1993 and in Schleswig-Holstein in 2010. I wonder if the entire federal election in Berlin will also face a rerun. Currently, there is only talk about a rerun in 431 precincts. I assume that both election reruns will take place on the same day.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Berlin Constitutional Court declared the WHOLE Berlin state election invalid and ruled that it has to be rerun ENTIRELY.

Wow, that's pretty big.

Are there any past precedents for this?

Well, it happend once in Hamburg in the early 90s. A constitutional court had declared the 1991 state parliament election invalid, leading to a rerun of the election in 1993.

The reason was a bit different though: The nomination process for the CDU candidates was deemed to have failed the legal norms.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

lmfao what a failure


Wonder how the state SPD will defend this, given that the guy in charge of the elections was one of theirs.

Interestingly, the latest poll shows the SPD and Greens more or less where they were in 2021, but the CDU has now edged them out for first place (obviously, margin of error):



2021 was SPD 21%, Greens 19%, CDU 18%, Linke 14%, AfD 8%, FDP 7%.

Let's see if this 52% RRG majority holds, or if voters punish the RRG governing alliance for mismanagement when the election approaches. Maybe it's time for a change, idk.


Interestingly, I am sandwiched on two sides (north/northwest and east/northeast) by precincts that have to redo their election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Furthermore, he was criticized for multiple occasions of inappropriate behavior during a soccer game as well as inappropriate comments towards female flight attendants.

It was not a soccer game, though, but a celebration of Eintracht Frankfurt's surprising 2022 UEFA Europa League Final victory. When the soccer team was about to enter the balcony of the Römer (the name of the Frankfurt city hall) in order to celebrate before a crowd of thousands of fans, then-Mayor Feldmann pried the cup out of Coach Oliver Glasner's and Captain Sebastian Rode's hands. His big brazen grin plus Glasner's and Rode's startled expression on their faces are just too divine.

He should be given the ultimate punishment and be made a season ticket holder at Kickers Offenbach.

Well, he faces a lifetime ban on entering the Waldstadion, the home stadium of Eintracht Frankfurt.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, it happend once in Hamburg in the early 90s. A constitutional court had declared the 1991 state parliament election invalid, leading to a rerun of the election in 1993.

There's a small difference between those two incidents. The Constitutional Court in Berlin ruled that all twelve borough boards ("Bezirksverordnetenversammlungen") are to be dissolved, too. The court in Hamburg, on the other hand, imposed their ruling only on five of seven borough boards.

Edit: Here is another information regarding the recall election of mayors, before MAE leapfrogs me again: The last (in)famous recall of a mayor of a major city was Duisburg Mayor Adolf Sauerland in 2012 in consequence of the 2010 Loveparade disaster that 21 people fell victim to.
There's a simple reason why mayors such as Feldmann and Sauerland fight a voluntary resignation tooth and nail despite unanimous publics calls for it: Money. In case of a voluntary resignation, Feldmann would have received a monthly gross retirement pay in the amount of 5,500 €. Owing to his recall, he still earns 9.800 € per month - until his entry into receipt of pension.

The sorry situation in the Bahnhofsviertel alone should have been reason to make him resign. The scenes in that place, with mass open heroin and crack use, defecated streets, needles everywhere etc. are a damning indictment on every single authority responsible, very much including the city government. Nowhere else in Europe have I witnessed anything like this. It reminds me of videos of Philadelphia.

If you want to get a brief impression of the night life in Frankfurt's Bahnhofsviertel with all its zombies, I can recommend you this reaction video (The original has been deleted by YT due to a violation of the ToS.) The big, tattooed guy is Christian Eckerlin, Frankfurt's most prominent MMA fighter and thus a local hero. Further, a member of the Hell Angels and a red-light great, nobody would dare to lay a finger on him, hence his carefree, some may call it reckless, walk though the hood.

[President Johnson]

RIP Franzi. I don't think the SPD will come out on top in a snap election, although CDU, Greens and SPD were virtually tied in the latest INSA poll (21%, 20% and 20%, respectively).

The incompetence is just staggering here, though. Truly an embarrassment for the capital of the Europe's largest economy. Germans should be more cautious by laughing at America right now when it takes days to count the votes. At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

Well, strictly speaking, there isn't any absolute need to in this case and in most countries it wouldn't be happening. This is more a comment on the peculiarities of the German legal system than anything else, even if there were certainly problems with the count.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

RIP Franzi. I don't think the SPD will come out on top in a snap election, although CDU, Greens and SPD were virtually tied in the latest INSA poll (21%, 20% and 20%, respectively).

The incompetence is just staggering here, though. Truly an embarrassment for the capital of the Europe's largest economy. Germans should be more cautious by laughing at America right now when it takes days to count the votes. At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

I mean that's more due to vastly different legal standards, Austria had to re-do an entire presidential election over an issue( poor quality glue in postal votes) that would be a minor headline in a use election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

Well, strictly speaking, there isn't any absolute need to in this case and in most countries it wouldn't be happening. This is more a comment on the peculiarities of the German legal system than anything else, even if there were certainly problems with the count.

Meanwhile in Australia…
2014 Australian Senate special election in Western Australia

[Oryxslayer]

RIP Franzi. I don't think the SPD will come out on top in a snap election, although CDU, Greens and SPD were virtually tied in the latest INSA poll (21%, 20% and 20%, respectively).

The incompetence is just staggering here, though. Truly an embarrassment for the capital of the Europe's largest economy. Germans should be more cautious by laughing at America right now when it takes days to count the votes. At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

I mean that's more due to vastly different legal standards, Austria had to re-do an entire presidential election over an issue( poor quality glue in postal votes) that would be a minor headline in a use election.

Larger, centralized election agencies mean a small technical error affects a ton of voters. Every year there's some US county that doesn't open the polling locations on time, misprints ballots, gets affected by a natural disaster and needs sufficient accommodations, or fails to get everything in the mail. The thing is, this only affects singular county systems,  so its easy for the local counts to order a remedy while everyone else proceeds as normal.  I think hurricane sandy is the only time a whole state got affected.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Berlin Constitutional Court declared the WHOLE Berlin state election invalid and ruled that it has to be rerun ENTIRELY.

Wow, that's pretty big.

Are there any past precedents for this?

There is another precedent, albeit on totally different legal grounds than in the cases of Hamburg and Berlin: In 2010, the Constitutional Court of Schleswig-Holstein declared the 2009 state election invalid - due to an inconclusively worded election law.
In order to prevent the Landtag from becoming too bloated, the SH election law provided a limit for leveling seat. However, it is unclear how that limit was defined. The law mentioned "additional seats", but it was unclear, though, if it referred to leveling seats only, or to overhang plus leveling seats. That led to two different interpretations of the law: the "big compensation", which favored the "coast coalition"/"Danish Ampel" consisting of SPD, Greens and SSW - and the "small compensation", which favored the black-yellow coalition.
The state elections administrator plus the electoral committee - which constituted of a black-yellow majority - decided upon the small compensation, thus enabling a CDU/FDP victory and therefore the re-election of Captain Iglo.
The Constitution Court of Schleswig-Holstein, however, declared the election law unconstitutional and that the Landtag shall therefore be dissolved. The court also decreed that the Landtag shall pass a new election law previous to its dissolution.
A Danish Ampel under SPD Governor Torsten Albig emerged victorious from the 2012 rerun election. Governor Peter Harry Carstensen didn't seek re-election.

It should be noted that Schleswig-Holstein, just like 14 of the 16 states, uses mixed-member proportional representation for its elections - albeit with a small, but crucial difference until 2009. The other thirteen states let their citizens elect one half of their state parliament via direct seats, the other half via closed lists. (Technically speaking, more than half the number of representatives are determined by direct mandates as the total number of representatives is always to be odd.)
In SH, however, 40 of the 69 of the seats used to be filled with direct mandates. The purpose of that was to give weight to the rural areas in a state with a very distinct and strong urban-rural divide. It even did make sense, as the countryside - similar to the Midwestern states or Oklahoma - used to vote SPD until the turn of the last millennium. But once the rural areas of SH got West-Virginia'ed since 2000, the vast majority of the constituencies are carried CDU, even though SPD and CDU usually draw level with each other regarding the second vote, which is pivotal to the allocation of seats, thus leading to bloated state parliaments.
The number of direct mandates are on a par with the list seats in a standard-sized Landtag ever since.

Landmass doesn't vote; CDU and SPD were virtually tied in the second vote, but the CDU carried the vast majority of constituencies:



In 1996, for comparison purposes, SPD and CDU also more or less drew level with each other, but the Social Democrats carried 26 constituencies, whereas the Christian Democrats only won 19 direct seats.

PS: Sorry for my non-understandable prose™!