🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

BTW:

Is there already a result on the 15 or so constitutional referendums in Hessen ?

Not yet, but expected to be published tomorrow. Hope the SPD overtakes the Greens and a traffic light coalition will be formed.

[President Johnson]

BTW:

Is there already a result on the 15 or so constitutional referendums in Hessen ?

Not yet, but expected to be published tomorrow. Hope the SPD overtakes the Greens and a traffic light coalition will be formed.

I‘m most interested in the death penalty and commitment to European values results ...

Ups, my bad. Maybe this helps: https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/wahlen/landtagswahl-2018/verfassungsreform/alle-ergebnisse-zur-volksabstimmung-ueber-die-verfassung,verfassungsreform-ergebnisse-102.html

[President Johnson]

The SPD Baden-Württemberg falls into chaos following a non-binding leadership election between current leader Leni Breymaier, who belongs to the party's left wing, and Lars Castellucci, one of her deputies who is considered more pragmatic. Breymaier received 39 votes more from almost 19,000 cast. There was a recount yesterday (we became Florida ). Both are under 50% support (48.46% to 48.25%; the rest are abstentions).*

Afterwards, Breymaier announced she won't seek reelection on the party convention. She took over in 2016 following the bitter defeat in the state election that year. Polling numbers have not improved since. Castellucci reaffirmed his determination to run for leader on the convention floor, but has been criticized for this. Maybe parliamentary leader and former Education Minister Andreas Stoch (a good man) will be a compromise candidate.

I voted for her challenger because she has not done a good job and divided the state party. I've never been a fan of her. Glad to see her leave.

Stuttgarter Zeitung

* I haven't seen a press report with the official results yet, but they were announced to party members.

[President Johnson]

cdu numbers aren't much better than spd. it's nice to see linke that high in thuringia and berlin.

That's because Bodo Ramelow, a Linke politician, is the minister president of Thuringia.
He came up, however, with a very unpopular proposal just tody that will cost him very many votes...

The guy is pretty much done anyway, I doubt his coalition will get another majority.

[President Johnson]

Source: tax-funded state TV broadcaster RBB

This result would be an absolute disaster and confirm that Germans are sick and tired of the grand coalition.

[President Johnson]

After the red-red-green coalition in Bremen has finally been formed (after severe SPD losses), Mayor Carsten Sieling announced he would not be avaible as city-state's head of government. Ironically, this is how he himself rose to power in 2015 after his predessor Jens Böhrnsen declined to stay on after a disappointing showing at the polls. This means, Bremen will get the second mayor in a row who starts at the beginning of the term without having run in the election.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1145639179679916032

[President Johnson]

After the red-red-green coalition in Bremen has finally been formed (after severe SPD losses), Mayor Carsten Sieling announced he would not be avaible as city-state's head of government. Ironically, this is how he himself rose to power in 2015 after his predessor Jens Böhrnsen declined to stay on after a disappointing showing at the polls. This means, Bremen will get the second mayor in a row who starts at the beginning of the term without having run in the election.

The coalition agreement has still to be approved by the members of the three parties, which can be assumed. The tax payers from the other state will be really looking forward to the new Bremen senate...
By the way - have you heard what the new coalition is going to do as their very first political decision? They are going raise the number of senators (= executive members) from eight to nine. 😒

That's pretty moderate compared to our state government in Baden-Württemberg. When the Green-Black coalition assumed office in 2016, they increased the number of state secretaries by a fair number.

In Bremen, I would have preferred a coaltion with the FDP instead of the Left. A traffic light coaltion would have a majority of one seat (44 out of 84).

[President Johnson]

I wish they struck down the entire list. The AfD is in large parts an anti-democratic, hard-right, nationalist cancer on society, trying to undermine the rule of law and democratic institutions. Apologists for right-wing extremism and hate speech. I'm also against unlimited immigration and like to see rejected/criminal asylum seekers being deported, but their entire attitude is only to tear us apart. And their "work" in legislatures is toxic and nonconstructive. We need real people solving problems, not dumb rhetoric.

[President Johnson]

Question: What is depicted on the map below?

A) the poll numbers for the SPD during the Schröder era
B) today's maximum temperature in Germany

https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1154119864207982593

Waiting for the AfD to claim this map is an attempt to make us believe climate change is real when it's not.

[President Johnson]

I did Wal-O-Mat with the six major parties.


Saxony:

SPD: 60.5%
CDU: 59.2%
Greens: 55.3%
AfD: 55.3% (how can they have the exact same numbers the Greens?)
FDP: 53.0%
Left: 48.7%


Brandenburg:

CDU: 69.7% (lmao)
FDP: 67.1%
SPD: 65.8% (lol, my own party at #3 is kind of weird)
AfD: 59.2%
Greens: 51.3%
Left: 48.7% (the same number as Saxony)


It's funny, I hardly get to 70% in any of these Wahl-o-Mats, no matter which state or government level. Probably because there is no party that is actually liberal on social issues but center-right on immigration, pro environment while at the same time centrist on economics. I'm probably closest to the French En Marche or an Obama/Biden Democrat. The Social Democrats have moved to far to the left, especially on immigration and the economy, while the FDP is too liberatarian for my taste and the CDU too socially conservative and not enough pro environment. The Greens are crazy on immigration and identity politics, Left+AfD are nuts on almost every issue.

[President Johnson]

New poll for the September 1 Brandenburg state election:

SPD: -15% (compared with the 2014 election)
CDU: -5%
Left: -5%
AfD: +9%
Greens: +10%
FW: +1%
FDP: +3%

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1159881248854237184

A result like this would require a coalition between everyone except for the AfD and the Left. That isn't healthy, especially if the FDP enters the legislature.

The SPD is about to lose the few states we're still doing relatively well. NRW polls for eample are equally bad, and it won't be better in three years when the election is being held there.

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

Honestly, I'd consider that in Saxony to stop the AfD from becoming the number one. We can't have that.

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling he will end up like Sieling. Succeed a mayor who stepped down after a disastrous election defeat, serve out the term and then get clobbered. But next time, there won't be third SPD mayor.

[President Johnson]

Brand new polls from Saxony and Brandenburg:

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1164570855474651136

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1164570595994066944

[President Johnson]

The SPD's standing is so pathetic. Really.

[President Johnson]

So my prediction is Red-Red-Green for Brandenburg and CDU-SPD-Greens in Saxony. The latter is going to be more difficult to put together, but I'm pretty sure it's going to work out, alone for the sake of the state and the lack of alternatives.

[President Johnson]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

Well, before Kurz became ÖVP leader, the FPÖ was polling in the low to mid 30s range for a while and both the SPÖ and ÖVP were trailing outside the margin of error. Especially during the closing months of the Faymann government.

[President Johnson]

It's official: Winfried Kretschmann, Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg, today announced he will run for reelection to a third term in March 2021. There was some speculation he might step down after the election due to his age (he's 71 now). Chances are high the first and only Green Party head of state of a state wins again due to high popularity (his approval ratings are mostly in the 70s). He's more moderate than the national Greens.

https://twitter.com/SWRAktuellEil/status/1172065443827392512

[President Johnson]

And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

This would be utterly terrible, assuming the FDP doesn't fall under 5%. But if the result is actually like this, maybe the Left and CDU are at least engaging in talks. My assumption is that any negotiations will collapse and a new election early next year is called. With undetermined outcome.

It's insane 25% vote for party, whose state leader is a literal nazi.

[President Johnson]

New poll for the 2021 state election in Baden-Württemberg; the first one since Minister-President Kretschmann announced his intension to run for a third term. MASSIVE bump for the Greens. Winfired Kretschmann is also leading his CDU challenger, minister for education Susanne Eisenmann, 69-13% in a head-to-head matchup. The SPD's showing is absolutely pathetic. #UnbeatableTitanWinfried!

https://twitter.com/SWRAktuellBW/status/1174624185232084992

[President Johnson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

[President Johnson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

?

No, it’s Björn.

There's been going on a joke in German media, especially among comedians, that his actual name is Bernd. A few years ago, someone misspoke and Höcke was upset about that.

FDP leader Ulrich Rülke in Baden-Württemberg Landtag (starting at 7:40)

[President Johnson]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg, where the next state election takes place in 2021:

Greens: 38% (+7.7%)
CDU: 26% (-1%)
AfD: 12% (-3.1%)
SPD: 8% (-4.7%)
FDP: 8% (-0.3%)
Left: 3% (+1%)

This is the highest percentage value for the Greens in any statewide or countrywide poll ever.
77% of all respondents are satisfied with Governor Winfried Kretschmann's job performance. 71% of them back his decision to seek the governorship for a third time; among the AfD supporters it's only 44%, but that's still a high favorability number.
65% of them stated that they are contented with the green-black government as a whole.

I've posted this already, but huge numbers for #UnbeatableTitanWinfried. The SPD's showing is beyond pathetic. The irony is, that if in 2011 the SPD received just a percentage more and was ahead of the Greens, Nils Schmid would have been MP and most likely a popular one.

[President Johnson]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

I think the most likely outcome is a minority government with the CDU voting present for minister-president. However, after a year or so, this is going to fail due to the necessity to pass a budget. The big question then is, who gets the blame?

I can't imagine the CDU entering coalition with the Left, even when the state party is pretty moderate in comparison to others. CDU state leader Mike Mohring has indicated he's open to talk, but other Christian Democrats from the national level and state parties voiced strong opposition to such a coalition. And after the disastrous CDU showing, Mohring's position isn't that strong any longer.

[President Johnson]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

I think the most likely outcome is a minority government with the CDU voting present for minister-president.

This. As I said before, an actual coalition between CDU and LINKE is very unlikely to happen. There is no real advantage but a lot of down side for the CDU. Supporting a minority government from the outside allows the party to keep its original promise (no coalition with either AfD or LINKE) and enforce new elections once it makes sense.

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

Yes, I've said this years ago the moderate parts of the Left like Bodo Ramelow, Petra Pau or Dietmar Bartsch should switch to the Social Democrats (or merge the moderate wing), while the far-lefties should form an own minor (socialist/comminist) party.

Entering a coalition with the Left would also be a major long-term risk for the CDU, because it's it makes them kind of obsolete and would alienate more conservative voters who used to support them over the AfD.

[President Johnson]

I often wonder what would have happened to the CDU had Merkel been like the Cameron/May government in the UK and basically accepted very few of the 2015 refugees/migrants.

Anyway right-wing Populist parties have risen basically everywhere in Europe, even places that received comparatively far less refugees (look at the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Finland). The immigration issue is there even without the refugees. In fact, the main Turning Point on Refugee sentiment in Germany, the Köln sex attacks (and for that matter the Paris Terrorist Attacks), were mostly not even committed by refugees, but rather north africans who had been there for quite a while already. The AFD was inevitable, perhaps 2-3% less than now, but still inevitable in my opinion.

Agree. The latter also has led to a sense of "the state having lost control" after we already went through the recession in 2009 and the Eurocrisis, especially with Greece. A lot of people have a feeling the government has lost control over events that create a lot of problems. Among many other things.