🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Age breakdown:


On the left side voters who are younger than 60, on the right side voters who are 60 and older.

[President Johnson]

Updated projection:

[DL]

Si what sort of government gets formed? Do we get some sort of CDU led coalition with either SPD or Greens or do we get an SPD-Green-Linke government?

[President Johnson]

Si what sort of government gets formed? Do we get some sort of CDU led coalition with either SPD or Greens or do we get an SPD-Green-Linke government?

Unclear at this point, CDU will talk to SPD and Greens. Obviously the former would be easier to match than the latter. As for the SPD, the question could also be whether we land ahead of the Greens or not. If the Greens come in second, then R2G could continue with Bettina Jarasch assuming the mayorship. If the SPD remains ahead of the Greens, it might be easier to continue, although a three-party coalition is more difficult to handle. In the end, it might also come down as to what kind of concessions the CDU is willing to make to either the SPD or Greens.

I personally think the CDU should be leading the government because a nine point lead a major losses for all three governing parties is a clear demand by the electorate for a change. Also, a coalition government with just two partners tends to work more smoothly.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Si what sort of government gets formed? Do we get some sort of CDU led coalition with either SPD or Greens or do we get an SPD-Green-Linke government?

RRG is still the most likely, but CDU-SPD is the next most likely given the horrible result for the SPD.

CDU-Green is not at all likely in Berlin. The Berlin Greens are very leftist, and deeply hostile to the CDU on issues like housing and transit policy. This is not BaWü where the Greens are basically a centrist party.

The CDU and SPD have large overlap on things like housing, transit, education, policing, general services, and the budget, so they could easily work together like they did from 1990-2001 and 2011-2016.

[President Johnson]

Greens are now ahead of SPD:

[Oryxslayer]

Not much gander gap, though an age breakdown similar to what one should expect based on past coalitions. SPD and Union skew old, Greens and FDP skew young. AfD though has a old skewing vote rather than their standard Bell Curve, and this being a city means the Linke vote is much more youth-aligned rather than dual-humped.

Also its from EuElects, so they reverse Union and AfD colors.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens are leading the SPD for 2nd place in both ARD and ZDF now... ironically this makes a CDU/SPD coalition much more likely, I guess.

[President Johnson]

Greens are leading the SPD for 2nd place in both ARD and ZDF now... ironically this makes a CDU/SPD coalition much more likely, I guess.

I wonder whether Giffey would take a government role in such a coalition? It's pretty though to transit from the top job to a second-in-command role, although the Berlin mayor's formal constitutional authority is weaker than most Minister-Presidents of the (Flächen)Länder.

[Yeahsayyeah]

For anybody interested, the official result page can be found here:

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2023/AFSPRAES/agh/index.html

The perecentage wins/losses can be a bit misleading, because they compare to 2016.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

3rd projection



I'm not a fan of Dr. Giffey, but I still prefer her to Green Bibo, who supports climate terrorists and Arab clans and who brands motorists, meat-eaters and policemen as criminals.

However, if Giffey shows some decorum, she ought to accept the will of the electorate.

[President Johnson]

3rd projection

However, if Giffey shows some decorum, she ought to accept the will of the electorate.

Giffey should resign from her leader role and certainly not claim any government mandate in my opinion. A CDU-SPD government with new personell from our side would be the outcome that honors the people's will.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Only 24% of the Berliners are satisfied with the performance of the Senate, the third-lowest percentage for a state government in the history of German psephology.



Further, Giffey's favorability ratings are at 36%, the lowest figure for an incumbent Social Democratic mayor ever.

[Oryxslayer]

Greens now ahead of SPD in second preferences, by 160 votes to be precise, with 60% of counts completed.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is worse than expected for the SPD, no?

[President Johnson]

This is worse than expected for the SPD, no?

Not really, the polls saw it coming. Most just slightly underestimated CDU support. According to exit polls, the party was also successful in winning lots of protest votes. Several of them are former SPD and FDP supporters.

[President Johnson]

Updated projection:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

F--ckkk a lot of SPD candidates who won in 2016 and 2021 are getting absolutely slaughtered by the CDU in Neukölln 😬😬😬😬😬😬

Suburban SPD-CDU crime voters are real

[President Johnson]

kkk a lot of SPD candidates who won in 2016 and 2021 are getting absolutely slaughtered by the CDU in Neukölln 😬😬😬😬😬😬

Suburban SPD-CDU crime voters are real

Somewhere these 51,000 voters that apparently switched need to be, huh?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The left-of center vote has split so heavy while losing strength; the CDU consolidated the right-of-center vote + winng over swing voters. The CDU is sweeping a large number of swing districts on the first vote.


This is an obvious rejection of RRG after 6 years, and also the SPD after 22 years of the SPD leading government (33 total in power). People have lost confidence and want something new.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Per exit polls; Greens eating sh-t on transportation situation, SPD eating sh-t on housing 😬

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Not really, the polls saw it coming. Most just slightly underestimated CDU support. According to exit polls, the party was also successful in winning lots of protest votes. Several of them are former SPD and FDP supporters.

Speaking of CDU support..
I am well-aware that most people on Atlas don't like to hear it, but considering how severely Friedrich Merz was lambasted for calling misogynist migrants who refuse to acknowledge the authority of female teachers and care workers "Paschas" and how mercilessly Kai Wegner was scorched for asking for the non-Christian "Christian" names of the perpetrators of New Year's Eve, I am so satisfied and relieved to ascertain that Berlin's citizens voiced by means of their ballots that they hate getting told that it's raining while in fact they're getting pissed on.

You know that you must have totally f**ked up as a liberal party when this guy canvasses for a black-yellow coalition... 🤣

[Niemeyerite]

So who's gonna end in 2nd place after all?

[President Johnson]

So who's gonna end in 2nd place after all?

SPD and Greens are still tied after numerous updated projections. I guess it's entirely up in the air right now.

[Oryxslayer]

So who's gonna end in 2nd place after all?

SPD and Greens are still tied after numerous updated projections. I guess it's entirely up in the air right now.

The Greens have held a couple hundred vote lead for several hours, and now, at the end of the count, that looks like it's going to hold.