🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[DavidB.]

I find statewide to be a confusing term in this thread title. Maybe change it to regional? I feel state is a poor translation of Bundesland.

[DavidB.]

Glad they finally built in a feature with which you can include all parties in your result. Hated the maximum 8 parties thing.

AfD 70.8%
FW 56.3%
FDP 56.3%
CDU 56.3%
SPD 46.9%
ÖDP 43.8%
Piraten 41.7%
Linke 37.5%
Grüne 32.3%
Tierschutz 32.3%
V-Partei 27.1%

Love that even the SPD wants to keep the Tanzverbot. And wtf that they want to prosecute people for possessing small amounts of marijuana, with CDU and AfD being the only other ones.

[DavidB.]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

Where can I check all of these election results?

My unweighted Wahl-O-Mat result for Saxony:

AfD 90.8%
CDU 63.2%
FDP 63.2%
SPD 30.3%
Grüne 19.7%
Linke 15.8%

My choice would seem clear...

[DavidB.]

Thanks!

[DavidB.]

The AFD indeed needs a German Farage, Salvini or Marine LePen. Nobody really votes AFD because they are convinced by Meuthen, Höcke or Gauland. To break through that 15% Ceiling, they need somebody to make the party more than just a protest vote against immigration policy. They need somebody that can excite.

Wonder who this charismatic person is going to be compared to... the toxicity of that comparison can also hurt them. But of course I see your point and you're right.

[DavidB.]

Haven't been following this - what is seen as the reason the CDU are losing more than the SPD?

[DavidB.]

The FDP always prove to be completely ineffective in achieving any of the policies they - claim to - stand for. That's the biggest problem.

[DavidB.]

The FDP should just go all the way on nuclear energy. Twist the SPD and the Greens' arm and don't just keep the current power plants open, but actually open some of the closed ones within one year. It'll cost a lot of money but so did the Energiewende, and I don't buy that it's technically impossible. We're in a continental crisis in which all existing taboos should be rethought. It's the right thing to do and it'll show right-wing voters they still have some balls.

[DavidB.]

The sorry situation in the Bahnhofsviertel alone should have been reason to make him resign. The scenes in that place, with mass open heroin and crack use, defecated streets, needles everywhere etc. are a damning indictment on every single authority responsible, very much including the city government. Nowhere else in Europe have I witnessed anything like this. It reminds me of videos of Philadelphia.

[DavidB.]

According to an exit poll just shown on ZDF, Giffey (SPD) has an approval rate of 51/40.

[DavidB.]

Interesting how AfD are relatively low at 9% while in national polls they are at about 15%. Clearly lower than the 14% they got in Berlin in September 2016, when their national polling numbers were even slightly lower than now. Either this indicates they are being overpolled nationally right now, or their voter base has shifted further towards a type of voter that is less present in Berlin. Are East Berlin voters less likely to be pro-Russia than other East German voters?

[DavidB.]

I already suspected AfD would outperform the pre-election polls at least in Hessen: it is one of their best Western states and if they are at about 21-22% nationally, they cannot be a lot lower there. In Bavaria it's more complicated given the fact that quite a significant number of voters opt for AfD federally but for FW on the state level.

The heinous attack on Chrupalla may have netted them some additional swing voters too.

[DavidB.]

Well, it depends on how you define being "right-wing". CDU is, uncontestably, a conservative (i.e. preserve society as it is) party, now even led by someone who thinks Merkel was too moderate. And I am pretty sure that out of every AfD voter, maybe 10% would be right-wing in any meaningful way.

Look at how they are doing in Bavaria, running against the strongest FW in the country, against the most right-wing branch of the Union. It is not a "right-wing" option their voters were missing.

Closing down all nuclear power plants to build the country full of wind turbines (with skyrocketing electricity costs) and letting in more than 1 million immigrants every year since 2012 isn't very much "preserve society as it is" policy. Many ordinary voters feel the difference. Under Merkel the CDU shifted from conservative to centrist, leaving the electoral space on the right wide open. From that perspective, AfD's big breakthrough was always a matter of time.

[DavidB.]

I'd be very interested in seeing an FW vs. AfD map. Wonder what the pattern would be like.