🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the razor-thin Green lead over the social democrats holds, it will be an interesting government formation process where the SPD ends up with the role of the often-quoted "kingmaker".

The Greens want to continue the current coalition for the obvious reason of geting the top job for themselves for a change.

It's then up to the SPD to decide whether they're open to such an experiment, or want to become the CDU's junior partner instead, or - given their dismal result today - choose the oppostion role in the end.

If Green-Red-Red fails the Greens would have an obvious interest in becoming the CDU's junior partner too, of course.



Oh, well... and nobody likes the FDP anymore, which could have ramifications for the mood within the traffic-light coalition on the federal level, more than anything else.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With 3.760 out of 3.764 precincts reporting...

SPD - 278.564 votes

Greens - 278.382 votes





https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2023/AFSPRAES/agh/index.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

3.762 out of 3.764 reporting


SPD - 278.782

Greens -  278.549


The two missing precincts are in Tiergarten/Moabit and Neukölln, btw, in areas where the Greens are currently leading overall, but I doubt that this will be enough to prevent Franziska Giffey's glamour-less re-election at this point.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

With 3.760 out of 3.764 precincts reporting...

SPD - 278.564 votes

Greens - 278.382 votes


https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2023/AFSPRAES/agh/index.html

😁

[Oryxslayer]

With 3.760 out of 3.764 precincts reporting...

SPD - 278.564 votes

Greens - 278.382 votes





https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2023/AFSPRAES/agh/index.html

Stop the steal!

Anyway, I find it interesting that despite both getting the same vote total, the Greens appear to have lost 4 direct mandates and held 20 from 2021, whereas the SPD lost 21 and only held 4.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is this a good time to mention that I tactically voted for the Left Party in order to give Giffey a shot at the mayorship and hence provide the SPD with an additional incentive to stay in Red-Green-Red. The anti-Wegner, but Giffey/Jarasch-neutral vote, so to speak.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The two missing precincts are in Tiergarten/Moabit and Neukölln, btw, in areas where the Greens are currently leading overall, but I doubt that this will be enough to prevent Franziska Giffey's glamour-less re-election at this point.

Is this a good time to mention that I tactically voted for the Left Party in order to give Giffey a shot at the mayorship and hence provide the SPD with an additional incentive to stay in Red-Green-Red. The anti-Wegner, but Giffey/Jarasch-neutral vote, so to speak.

[Middle-aged Europe]

3.764 out of 3.764 precincts


SPD -  278.978

Greens -  278.873


Congratulations, Franziska Giffey... I guess.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Interesting how AfD are relatively low at 9% while in national polls they are at about 15%. Clearly lower than the 14% they got in Berlin in September 2016, when their national polling numbers were even slightly lower than now. Either this indicates they are being overpolled nationally right now, or their voter base has shifted further towards a type of voter that is less present in Berlin.

Sorry for the late response, but I think this is just more that their voter profile is shifting out of urban areas rather than any pro-AfD polling bias.

Back in 2016 they were still a bit more of a protest party who picked up lots of votes from people across the political spectrum who were dissatisfied, whether they were urban or rural, left or right-leaning, etc. and clearly performed best in the former DDR areas.

Since then, their profile as a clearly right-wing party has sharpened, and they also took on more of an anti-big city character as well (especially their rhetoric against Berlin as both the political capital and as a big city has really sharpened). Also, their main candidate Kristin Brinker is not really charismatic and the state party has floundered.

Additionally, migration was a major topic from 2014 to 2018, and since then has become less salient, hence AfD has not done that great since then. While the cost of living crisis + voter shifts from the FDP have boosted the AfD in Niedersachsen in 2022, the Berlin AfD have not really capitalized on it and either way are outvoted. I also think the state CDU running on issues like crime took some of the wind out of the AfD's sails on that issue.

Finally (and possibly most importantly), the CDU presented itself as a credible alternative this election to a leftist government, hence voters opted for the CDU in Berlin who otherwise may have voted AfD.

Are East Berlin voters less likely to be pro-Russia than other East German voters?

Tbh i don't think this played much of a role at all. I would assume less likely? But I also assume that the "pro-Russia" sentiment that is discussed in East Germany is less actually PRO-Russia and more just ambivalence about The West^TM vs. Russia.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Stop the steal!

Anyway, I find it interesting that despite both getting the same vote total, the Greens appear to have lost 4 direct mandates and held 20 from 2021, whereas the SPD lost 21 and only held 4.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stop the steal!

Anyway, I find it interesting that despite both getting the same vote total, the Greens appear to have lost 4 direct mandates and held 20 from 2021, whereas the SPD lost 21 and only held 4.

About what you'd expect really: the SPDs vote is very evenly distributed across the city.

[JimJamUK]

Sorry for the late response, but I think this is just more that their voter profile is shifting out of urban areas rather than any pro-AfD polling bias.

Absolutely. Urban East Germany saw the biggest swings against the AFD in 2021 along with southern Bavaria (the FW factor), and their results in urban West Germany were also noticeably poor, including in places where they didn’t have that much to lose to begin with.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In other news, drag queen Gloria Viagra yet again failed to win a seat in the Berlin parliament for the Left Party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

First votes:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Second votes:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

About what you'd expect really: the SPDs vote is very evenly distributed across the city.

Not exactly evenly distributed.

SPD second votes:



The SPD was merely the second choice of the electorate in most districts, no matter how well the party fared in the respective districts.

Second-strongest party per House district:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Here we see the primary reason for the CDU victory: the overwhelming desire for change, along with concerns about crime and immigration:

Views of NEW CDU voters (roughly translated) :

- I voted CDU so that something finally changes in Berlin
- I would feel better/worry less about order and justice in Berlin
- I think it's good that they name problems with immigration more clearly

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD federal chairwoman Saskia Esken on nationl TV: "Kai Wegner (CDU) has no option for power".

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Per exit polls; Greens eating sh-t on transportation situation, SPD eating sh-t on housing 😬

What does this mean in practice? Voters want more car-centric urbanism and more laissez faire Housing policies? Or is it just disagreement with the nitty gritty of how RRG has handled these issues?

Edit: what parties have got the blame for the Brandenburg Airport shambles over the past decade?

[buritobr]

Second votes:

Which districts are richer? Which districts are poorer?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Which districts are richer? Which districts are poorer?

I found this data about social welfare recipients (vulgo "Hartz IV"):



Many social welfare recipients:



Few social welfare recipients:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Age breakdown:


On the left side voters who are younger than 60, on the right side voters who are 60 and older.

On the left side: Voting behaviour of people who have lived in Berlin for 20 years or more.

On the right side: Voting behaviour of people who have lived in Berlin less than 10 years.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

...

That's so typical of you to only post polls that put a good complexion on your Greens. 🤮
If you quote our John King - which your comrade PUTP forbade me from doing btw - please quote him fully: 😡

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I found maps with different hues displaying the margin of victory.

First votes:



Second votes:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Am I the only one btw who gets triggered by that green district in Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf? It looks like a puzzle piece that is missing in Mitte-2. 😅