🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

New Berlin poll... not sure whether CDU or Greens come out on top, but I think the SPD and Giffay are going to lose and come in third. RIP Franzi.

https://twitter.com/Techaktien1/status/1602079850143141888

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

New Berlin poll... not sure whether CDU or Greens come out on top, but I think the SPD and Giffay are going to lose and come in third. RIP Franzi.

The polling number for the FDP could have a very dramatic effect on their already jeopardized re-entry into the Berlin House of Representatives.
Can you conjecture why?

[President Johnson]

New Berlin poll... not sure whether CDU or Greens come out on top, but I think the SPD and Giffay are going to lose and come in third. RIP Franzi.

The polling number for the FDP could have a very dramatic effect on their already jeopardized re-entry into the Berlin House of Representatives.
Can you conjecture why?

Because a lot of FDP voters/leaners are uneasy with the traffic light coalition. SPD and Greens are considered left of center parties and a decent junk of the FDP base feels uncomfortable with that. However, I'd argue that's more a public perception than reality. The FDP got a lot of their policies written down in the coalition agreement and actually has more influence on the government that it should have based on the election result. I'm fairly sure the Greens would have gotten more in a Jamaica coalition and not FDP, because the Greens would be the ones to leave their "traditional camp".

The FDP generally seems to be more appealing out of government rather than in. The 2009-13 second Merkel cabinet was also a horrible period for the party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The polling number for the FDP could have a very dramatic effect on their already jeopardized re-entry into the Berlin House of Representatives.
Can you conjecture why?

Because a lot of FDP voters/leaners are uneasy with the traffic light coalition. SPD and Greens are considered left of center parties and a decent junk of the FDP base feels uncomfortable with that. However, I'd argue that's more a public perception than reality. The FDP got a lot of their policies written down in the coalition agreement and actually has more influence on the government that it should have based on the election result. I'm fairly sure the Greens would have gotten more in a Jamaica coalition and not FDP, because the Greens would be the ones to leave their "traditional camp".

The FDP generally seems to be more appealing out of government rather than in. The 2009-13 second Merkel cabinet was also a horrible period for the party.

I was driving at something else: Berlin is the only state where the 5% threshold applies to the final tally of all votes cast in a state election, including all void and blank ballots, thus effectively raising the threshold for parties to enter the Berlin House of Representatives.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, now Berlin will also have a referendum this year....but not on the same day as the repeat elections. Instead the "Climate Neutral 2030" referendum will happen separately on March 26th.

Reasons for this difference include the tight deadlines to prepare both a repeat election and a referendum, the tight deadline for the Berlin House of Representatives to debate and pass the necessary legislation. Apparently both the Returning Officer and the individual districts were unanimous in their opposition to holding the referendum on the same day as the repeat election due to the practical constraints.

Truly hilarious, this city.

[CumbrianLefty]

The polling number for the FDP could have a very dramatic effect on their already jeopardized re-entry into the Berlin House of Representatives.
Can you conjecture why?

Because a lot of FDP voters/leaners are uneasy with the traffic light coalition. SPD and Greens are considered left of center parties and a decent junk of the FDP base feels uncomfortable with that. However, I'd argue that's more a public perception than reality. The FDP got a lot of their policies written down in the coalition agreement and actually has more influence on the government that it should have based on the election result. I'm fairly sure the Greens would have gotten more in a Jamaica coalition and not FDP, because the Greens would be the ones to leave their "traditional camp".

The FDP generally seems to be more appealing out of government rather than in. The 2009-13 second Merkel cabinet was also a horrible period for the party.

I was driving at something else: Berlin is the only state where the 5% threshold applies to the final tally of all votes cast in a state election, including all void and blank ballots, thus effectively raising the threshold for parties to enter the Berlin House of Representatives.

How often has this actually made a difference?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

INSA for Bild Magazine poll:

SPD: 21%
CDU: 21%
Grüne: 20%
Linke: 12%
AfD: 10%
FDP: 6%

RRG still a comfortable 53%. Many polls show the CDU in the lead with the SPD and Greens exchanging second and third place. Seems like it will be similar to 2021, but even more of a nail-biter. But even still, RRG is almost certainly going to happen again.

[President Johnson]

INSA for Bild Magazine poll:

SPD: 21%
CDU: 21%
Grüne: 20%
Linke: 12%
AfD: 10%
FDP: 6%

RRG still a comfortable 53%. Many polls show the CDU in the lead with the SPD and Greens exchanging second and third place. Seems like it will be similar to 2021, but even more of a nail-biter. But even still, RRG is almost certainly going to happen again.

I think a continuation of RRG is the most likely outcome, the question will only be who's in the driver's seat. And somehow I'd rather be the Greens at this point. I wonder whether Giffey will take a cabinet position or just retreat to a backbencher in the Berlin legislature.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Today marks 7 weeks until the election....which means it was time to put up election posters!

We started at 17.30 and beat the other parties for the best real estate on the lamp posts. Here's Hakan Demir helping us on Sonnenallee:

 

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How often has this actually made a difference?

Never. However, that rule almost applied to the result of the Alternative List, the predecessor of Bündnis Bündnis 90/Die Grünen Berlin, which received 4.94% of all votes and 4.99% of all valid votes in 1990. (Strangely, official results only cite the latter percentage, which doesn't make sense for Berlin elections imho.) But even if the AL had eked out 5 percent of the valid votes while missing the threshold based on the total vote, they would have entered the House of Representatives because the Federal Constitutional Court decreed that year that the threshold for either election - i.e. the federal election and the contemporaneous Berlin state election - shan't apply nationwide for once but only either to West Germany or East Germany or, in terms of Berlin, only either to West Berlin or East Berlin, respectively. Since the Alternative List exceeded a vote of 5% in West Berlin, while their eastern sister party, Bündnis 90, passed the threshold in East Berlin, both parties managed to enter the House of Representatives.

I also learned during my research that (the) Saarland used the very same rule for its state elections until 1994.

PS: Sorry for my non-understandable prose™!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today marks 7 weeks until the election....which means it was time to put up election posters!

We started at 17.30 and beat the other parties for the best real estate on the lamp posts. Here's Hakan Demir helping us on Sonnenallee:

 

Oh, you seem to know Simon Bull? 😃

[CumbrianLefty]

How often has this actually made a difference?

Never. However, that rule almost applied to the result of the Alternative List, the predecessor of Bündnis Bündnis 90/Die Grünen Berlin, which received 4.94% of all votes and 4.99% of all valid votes in 1990. (Strangely, official results only cite the latter percentage, which doesn't make sense for Berlin elections imho.) But even if the AL had eked out 5 percent of the valid votes while missing the threshold based on the total vote, they would have entered the House of Representatives because the Federal Constitutional Court decreed that year that the threshold for either election - i.e. the federal election and the contemporaneous Berlin state election - shan't apply nationwide for once but only either to West Germany or East Germany or, in terms of Berlin, only either to West Berlin or East Berlin, respectively. Since the Alternative List exceeded a vote of 5% in West Berlin, while their eastern sister party, Bündnis 90, passed the threshold in East Berlin, both parties managed to enter the House of Representatives.

I also learned during my research that (the) Saarland used the very same rule for its state elections until 1994.

PS: Sorry for my non-understandable prose™!

Thank you for taking the trouble to actually look into this

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

News from the Berlin election:

The CDU and Die Linke hired outside companies to hang up its large billboards, as is normal.

However, Die Linke's billboards ended up in the completely wrong neighborhoods, e.g. billboards for Reinickendorf (suburban northwest) ended up in Neukölln (inner-city southeast) with the wrong candidates

The CDU somehow delivered several billboards from the September 2021 election to their hired company, and so Armin Laschet's face appeared to Berliners

Seems that nobody is truly ready to compentently run this city

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

News from the Berlin election:

The CDU and Die Linke hired outside companies to hang up its large billboards, as is normal.

However, Die Linke's billboards ended up in the completely wrong neighborhoods, e.g. billboards for Reinickendorf (suburban northwest) ended up in Neukölln (inner-city southeast) with the wrong candidates

The CDU somehow delivered several billboards from the September 2021 election to their hired company, and so Armin Laschet's face appeared to Berliners

Seems that nobody is truly ready to compentently run this city

How do you mess that up? That's like, if Dems put up signs with Hillary's face on them or something.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

News from the Berlin election:

The CDU and Die Linke hired outside companies to hang up its large billboards, as is normal.

However, Die Linke's billboards ended up in the completely wrong neighborhoods, e.g. billboards for Reinickendorf (suburban northwest) ended up in Neukölln (inner-city southeast) with the wrong candidates

The CDU somehow delivered several billboards from the September 2021 election to their hired company, and so Armin Laschet's face appeared to Berliners

There are also several election poster displaying Baerbock's face put up throughout the city. Nobodys knows though who is responsable for that.
On the other hand, these poster do make sense since ABAC is going to going to canvass for votes in Berlin, plus she is - unfortunately - the politician with the highest approval ratings right now; thus it's useful as seen from a Green perspective to pull a Merkel and capitalize on her name recognition even though she won't be up for election.

https://twitter.com/RND_de/status/1610342856035602432?s=20

Seems that nobody is truly ready to compentently run this city.

I am very grateful for your statement, but I said the same thing several times, and in each case I got scolded for leveling fierce criticism at Atlas' beloved sh**thole city.

PS: So, you won't tell me if you know Simon Bull, who posted the very same picture in his Insta story that you posted here?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

PS: So, you won't tell me if you know Simon Bull, who posted the very same picture in his Insta story that you posted here?

I don't know who that is, no. Or perhaps I do know him, if he is in the Neukölln SPD, because I know a lot of faces without knowing names. I had my own pictures, but they weren't very good or were blurry, and I stole this photo from the group chat from a woman, since it was the only good one from Sonnenallee.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I don't know who that is, no. Or perhaps I do know him, if he is in the Neukölln SPD, because I know a lot of faces without knowing names. I had my own pictures, but they weren't very good or were blurry, and I stole this photo from the group chat from a woman, since it was the only good one from Sonnenallee.

He used to be the chairman of the Jusos SH, but he lives in Berlin now, because he works as a political communication consultant there.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Another poll showing CDU leading and SPD and Greens neck-and-neck. This polls shows a slightly higher total for the other parties as well than most polls. But still, everything is very tight.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Berlin Wahl-O-Mat just dropped: https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/berlin2023/app/main_app.html

However, I have to say that this Wahl-O-Mat sucks. Some of the questions are just recycled from other states' elections and there are some critical questions that would relate to Berlin specifically that are missing (e.g. nothing about housing construction policy, nothing about subways, nothing about the 29 Euro public transit ticket, nothing about the overloaded daycares or primary schools, etc.). But it still has some value due to things like whether to complete the A100 or pedestrianize Friedrichstraße in the city center.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody:


I have to say that, while I have been out helping with handing out flyers, working infostands, door-knocking, and attending party meetings as usual, I feel a lot less enthusiastic about this election compared to how I normally feel about election season. Maybe it's the gloomy weather, maybe it's just craziness at work, but I think most of the apathy stems from the fact that barring any acts of God, this is going to be a status quo election. Red-Red-Green certainly will be elected. The real question is are we going to get Giffey staying on as mayor, or have Jarasch? So it's just a symbolic thing for the most part (not denying the influence the mayor has as the leader of the coalition and the state). Also, we're not even starting a new 5-year term, just finishing up the 2021-2026 term.

Finally, even though I am actually very supportive of the SPD Berlin agenda (building offensive for housing and schools, more money for childcare and seniors, the 29 Euro transit ticket combined with the 9 Euro ticket for the poor/students/elderly, remunicipalize Vattenfall's gas and district heating and buy shares in GASAG, finish the A100 but don't expand it further, etc.), it's hard for me to make the case that the SPD should be re-elected considering that 1.) it was an SPD minister overseeing the 2021 election, hence why we have to revote in the first place, and 2.) the SPD has led the government of Berlin for the past 22 years, and yet many things regarding quality of life are disappointing/bad and municipal services can be so unreliable. If we can't even administrate an election properly, why should voters trust us to govern the city for an additional 3.5 years? Thankfully no one has openly challenged me on this question, but I definitely have thought about it quite a bit ever since it became apparent that we may have to have a repeat-election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Antifa Minister Nancy Faeser is seeking the nomination for Governor of Hesse - something Christine Lieberknecht predicted months ago, hoping she could occupy Faeser's house in time before getting inevitably dismissed from her post as Defense Minister.

[President Johnson]

I think Faeser jumping into the Hesse election is a mistake. However, Scholz should actually have forced her to decide between the campaign and government post. Can't have it both ways like CDU's Norbert Röttgen in the 2012 NRW state election. If she wants to run, someone else should assume the role of Interior Minister.

With that being said, I think that CDU will win again due to incumbency. Boris Rhein may be an unelected Minister-President, but he seems a rational calm guy who's doing is job without much drama. So if she loses, then she wants to remain in Berlin? It would be bad optics. Just keep in mind that after losing, Merkel actually dismissed Röttgen as Environment Minister the next day. However, I doubt Scholz would do so.

[Oryxslayer]

and 2.) the SPD has led the government of Berlin for the past 22 years, and yet many things regarding quality of life are disappointing/bad and municipal services can be so unreliable. If we can't even administrate an election properly, why should voters trust us to govern the city for an additional 3.5 years? Thankfully no one has openly challenged me on this question, but I definitely have thought about it quite a bit ever since it became apparent that we may have to have a repeat-election.

Question time! I'm seeing quite a few polls pop up in my feed with Union leads so now it isn't exactly impossible to imagine a non-SPD party coming in first. However R2G will basically always have a majority, so this prompts my questions:

1) Would the current coalition continue even if it loses votes and the first place slot? On one hand you have Germany's political culture and expectations, on the other hand there is nature of this election and it being a repeat with an incumbent coalition already in place.

Also there's the possibility that the SPD even falls to 3rd behind both the Greens and the Union, meaning a continuation government would still mean a change at the top at minimum, but its always safer to be on the SPD in these engagements.

2) How much can be blamed on local factors and how much can be blamed on the National situation being bad for the SPD? We've got a situation in national polling that looks like some 2021 SPD voters
  -> Greens and Union, and some 2021 Union and FDP voters going -> AfD. Obviously there's always more under the hood (and I think a lot of this trend is Ukraine-influenced), but the Union, Greens, and AfD are up, with SPD and FDP down. However these trends would suggest a Greens lead in Berlin polling based on past results and alignment of electoral bases, not a Union one. So are all parts of the local R2G catching flack?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SHOCK POLL puts the SPD back in the lead with just one week to go. Probably an outlier, but other polls have showed the SPD gaining lately, with the Greens and CDU losing. So perhaps not too far-fetched. But we'll see in one week.

and 2.) the SPD has led the government of Berlin for the past 22 years, and yet many things regarding quality of life are disappointing/bad and municipal services can be so unreliable. If we can't even administrate an election properly, why should voters trust us to govern the city for an additional 3.5 years? Thankfully no one has openly challenged me on this question, but I definitely have thought about it quite a bit ever since it became apparent that we may have to have a repeat-election.

Question time! I'm seeing quite a few polls pop up in my feed with Union leads so now it isn't exactly impossible to imagine a non-SPD party coming in first. However R2G will basically always have a majority, so this prompts my questions:

1) Would the current coalition continue even if it loses votes and the first place slot? On one hand you have Germany's political culture and expectations, on the other hand there is nature of this election and it being a repeat with an incumbent coalition already in place.

Usually there is a tradition of the biggest party taking the first shot at trying to form a government, but in this case, all of the RRG parties have said they want to continue the RRG coalition. So there is no real need to give the CDU the first go, and I don't expect it to happen.

2) How much can be blamed on local factors and how much can be blamed on the National situation being bad for the SPD? We've got a situation in national polling that looks like some 2021 SPD voters
  -> Greens and Union, and some 2021 Union and FDP voters going -> AfD. Obviously there's always more under the hood (and I think a lot of this trend is Ukraine-influenced), but the Union, Greens, and AfD are up, with SPD and FDP down. However these trends would suggest a Greens lead in Berlin polling based on past results and alignment of electoral bases, not a Union one. So are all parts of the local R2G catching flack?

This is a difficult question to answer. Usually state elections in Germany do indeed have a backlash against the incumbent parties at the national level, like a midterm effect (this was especially true in the 1990s and 2000s), but as has been noted after previous elections, the past 10 years have shown that the new trend is "incumbents get re-elected". Whether a continuation of RRG but with a mayoral change meets this criteria, is up to the individual. Furthermore, Berlin is a very leftist city, so even if there is frustration with the national government and also with the state government, many voters are not willing to vote CDU like the city was in the 1990s.

Also, the demographics of the city have changed over the past 20-30 years, and the CDU still has a lot of badwill over the 2001 banking scandal, the debtload from which still burdens the city to this day.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1622294323072012290?s=20&t=-uAdl7H1i...

With one outlier in favor of the SPD, its only fair that we get one in favor of the Union.

[President Johnson]

RIP Franzi.

I guess the CDU will win this because their candidate is unknown and a the city state is just poorly managed and has been for a while. Maybe the SPD off power for a term is good for them here, although I sincerely doubt the CDU will get much done.

Perhaps Berlin should be governed by cabinet of technocrats for while who don't have ambitions and just want to solve problems with different support in the legislature.