🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Man Berlin sucks at elections.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1625490766591307778?t=CEv-F8UFP4fQtSwHcR...

The mail-in ballots were discovered in Lichtenberg though which is pretty far from being a Green stronghold. What I'm trying to say is that it's unlikely that the Greens will overtake the SPD now, unless further mail-in ballots in boroughs like Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Mitte, or Pankow are discovered.

Given the patterns of sunday's overall results I'd expect CDU and/or Left to benefit from these Lichtenberg ballots.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First round of talks between CDU and SPD/Greens on Friday.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, there could be a situation, if Giffey really wanted to stay in power, where the best way to do this is to hold coalition talks with the CDU for maybe three or four months before they ultimately fail. Then you could say it's either a comtinuation of Red-Green-Red or another early election.

The best thing she could do to stay in power is to do NOTHING, as repeat election, as against regular and snap elections, don't trigger automatic elections of the head of government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD federal chairwoman Saskia Esken on nationl TV: "Kai Wegner (CDU) has no option for power".

Why are you quoting a guest from the "Anne Will" talk-show? Your comrade PUTP and even President Johnson (!!!!!), who thinks Will is a right-wing talk-show host, forbade me from doing that.
But nevermind, much more crucial is the question why you quoted Eskja of all guests? Why didn't you quote Spahn, who virtually rejected black-green, or your party chair Nouri Ouripuori (or whatever his name is), who frankly admitted that Berlin's administrative machine doesn't work.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

(Thanks to Tagesspiegel for these maps of where the parties gained or lost the most)

The SPD loses votes everywhere except some areas of Friedrichshain and Pankow. The losses were especially strong in Neukölln, and the single biggest losses were in Franziska Giffey's personal district and the neighboring districts.



Die Linke also loses just about everywhere, especially so in the East, but still rather minor losses overall:


The AfD gains everywhere, but the gains are only enough to give it one extra percentage point across the entire state:


The Greens lose in almost every district outside of the Ringbahn, but gain in some inner districts:


The CDU, on the other hand, gains votes everywhere, both inside and outside the Ring:

[President Johnson]

Man Berlin sucks at elections.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1625490766591307778?t=CEv-F8UFP4fQtSwHcR...

It's at least faster than some US states I guess. Still an embarrassment.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

And these graphics come from ARD: https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/waehlerwanderung-abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2023/

Around 14 percent of all CDU votes came from people who had still voted for the Social Democrats in 2021; plus almost three percent of ex-left voters. Citizens with "simple education" gave 39 percent of the CDU their vote, reported Infratest.

It is clear that voters who voted SPD in 2021 and the CDU this time around were the decisive vote, followed by FDP --> CDU voters and nonvoters. The media commentary is that the CDU has become a "people's party" in a big city again, and in this election, a bit of a workers' party.

In many lower-middle and working class districts, voters were horrified by the violence on New Years', and are upset by the inability of the state administration to properly hold an election, the poor quality of schools, and the perceived hostility of the government to those living outside of the Ring when it comes to transportation policy certainly didn't help either. And given that the gender gap disappeared in this election, many of these SPD --> CDU voters were women of all ages and backgrounds.

Voters in places like Rudow, Buckow, Wedding, Marzahn-Mitte, Hohenschönhausen, Kaulsdorf, Adlershof, etc. like things like more frequent public transit, bike lanes, a higher minimum wage, rental controls, good schools, and competent administration. They are cool with immigrants as neighbors and unfazed when hearing foreign languages on the street. Many of them ARE immigrants or have a immigration background and can speak multiple languages!

But they don't like it when bottle rockets are fired deliberately at them when they walk home, through their windows, or having whatever the local equivalent of M80s are thrown into traffic as they drive home. They don't like it when police and ambulances are attacked, or busses set on fire. They don't like sending their children to crumbling and overcrowded school buildings staffed with underpaid teachers who are also stressed dealing with behavioral issues. They don't like being scapegoated because they take their hatchback to the grocery store or IKEA despite riding the S-Bahn to work or the bus to the gym and thinking about getting an electric vehicle next time when it's time to replace the current one. And they want to be proud of their city and so they especially resent being made into the laughingstock of Germany due to government incompetence.

In Spandau, the SPD won the BVV election in 2021 in a surprise upset by just 500 votes. In 2023, they trailed the CDU by over 15,000 votes. More than 50% of voters gave their votes to the right-of-centre, the complete opposite of 2021.  

Perhaps these voters still are satisfied with the federal traffic light coalition. Perhaps many of them still have their heart where the SPD is. Perhaps if there was no repeat election, they would have still voted SPD in 2026 if memories of New Years faded by then. But clearly, they were annoyed at being forced to vote again due to incompetence and angry at the violence in their neighborhoods. So, whether the CDU is actually capable of governing properly and providing real solutions remains to be seen, but 22 years after the banking scandal, voters are fed up and ready to try CDU leadership again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And these graphics come from ARD: https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/waehlerwanderung-abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2023/

Around 14 percent of all CDU votes came from people who had still voted for the Social Democrats in 2021; plus almost three percent of ex-left voters. Citizens with "simple education" gave 39 percent of the CDU their vote, reported Infratest.

It is clear that voters who voted SPD in 2021 and the CDU this time around were the decisive vote, followed by FDP --> CDU voters and nonvoters. The media commentary is that the CDU has become a "people's party" in a big city again, and in this election, a bit of a workers' party.

In many lower-middle and working class districts, voters were horrified by the violence on New Years', and are upset by the inability of the state administration to properly hold an election, the poor quality of schools, and the perceived hostility of the government to those living outside of the Ring when it comes to transportation policy certainly didn't help either. And given that the gender gap disappeared in this election, many of these SPD --> CDU voters were women of all ages and backgrounds.

Voters in places like Rudow, Buckow, Wedding, Marzahn-Mitte, Hohenschönhausen, Kaulsdorf, Adlershof, etc. like things like more frequent public transit, bike lanes, a higher minimum wage, rental controls, good schools, and competent administration. They are cool with immigrants as neighbors and unfazed when hearing foreign languages on the street. Many of them ARE immigrants or have a immigration background and can speak multiple languages!

But they don't like it when bottle rockets are fired deliberately at them when they walk home, through their windows, or having M80s thrown into traffic as they drive home. They don't like it when police and ambulances are attacked, or busses set on fire. They don't like sending their children to crumbling and overcrowded school buildings staffed with underpaid teachers who are also stressed dealing with behavioral issues. They don't like being scapegoated because they take their hatchback to the grocery store or IKEA despite riding the S-Bahn to work or the bus to the gym and thinking about getting an electric vehicle next time when it's time to replace the current one. And they want to be proud of their city and so they especially resent being made into the laughingstock of Germany due to government incompetence.

In Spandau, the SPD won the BVV election in 2021 in a surprise upset by just 500 votes. In 2023, they trailed the CDU by over 15,000 votes. More than 50% of voters gave their votes to the right-of-centre, the complete opposite of 2021.  

Perhaps these voters still are satisfied with the federal traffic light coalition. Perhaps many of them still have their heart where the SPD is. Perhaps if there was no repeat election, they would have still voted SPD in 2026 if memories of New Years faded by then. But clearly, they were annoyed at being forced to vote again due to incompetence and angry at the violence in their neighborhoods. So, whether the CDU is actually capable of governing properly and providing real solutions remains to be seen, but 22 years after the banking scandal, voters are fed up and ready to try CDU leadership again.

I certainly get the sentiment where this post is coming from, although based on my personal experience I would refrain from glorifying people from Hohenschönhausen too much.

Anecdotal evidence, but I happen to know two people who once lived in Höhenschönhausen for a long time and both of them were glad when they finally managed to get the hell out of there. One of them, who actually grew up there and could maybe be categorized as a Wagenknechtian Left Party supporter nowadays described the place as being "full of Nazis". The other one who would I definitely describe as "working-class" too (learned occupation:  carpenter) considered the place asozial ("anti-social").

Further anecdotal evidence, I briefly attended a depression support group in Höhenschönhausen a couple of years ago... that is until I managed to ge the hell out of there. The attendees definitely came across as more working-class and, let's say, less intellectual, less cosmopolitan, less "woke" than I was used to be from similar support groups within the Ringbahn. But I usually consider myself fairly open-minded and in any case I was there to talk about my (and their) depressions. That seemed to be sufficient common ground anyway.

Then on my second visit to that group one of its long-time members started on a lengthy monologue/rant about the "Great Reset", how COVID had actually never been more dangerous than the flu and how the pandemic was invented by global elites to institute a totalitarian system of government. Parts of his rant were also somehow directed against refugees, arguing that if anyone is responsible for bringing dangerous diseases into the country then it is the refugees. Out of the maybe eight attendees of that meeting everyone but me and some other guy seemed to agree with that rant. And this, as they say, was it for me. I left Hohenschönhausen less open-minded about the place than I had entered it.

According to his Facebook profile said ranter was indeed a hardcore AfD supporter, not suprising considering that the electoral precinct in Höhenschaunhausen who that support group met voted 34% AfD last Sunday (8% SPD, 2% Greens). If you go to an area where the AfD is usually the strongest (or maybe second-strongest) party you are going to meet voters of the AfD. And they're going to hold the political views of the AfD. And they're going to be pretty unrepentant about that.

And finally... I honestly lack the imagination that all of these people in Hohenschönhausen were handling their fireworks super-responsibly on January 1. This is an educated guess based on my own observation how drunken Germans of non-migrant background were handling the fireworks in my Plattenbau area in Friedrichshain this year where I had gotten in a situation that seemed a bit dangerous to me.

That being said, it is not my intention the excuse the behaviour of Arab youths in Neukölln on New Year's Eve. But maybe the behaviour of Arab youths in Neukölln on New Year's Eve shouldn't be sufficient reason to unduly idealize the people of Hohenschönhausen, some of which are maybe as bad if not worse.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

With the lost ballots having been counted, the SPD could widen its narrow margin.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Perhaps I should have been clearer, but my post was more about SPD-->CDU voters who live in these places, rather than glorifying the general population of a specific neighborhood. Not that all SPD voters are necessarily paragons of purity and pro-social behavior, of course, but it's obvious where these swings came from and they should be analyzed.

The SPD lost many voters from the demographic groups that make up its largest possible voter pool. Especially given that part of the post-election discourse has been to dismiss these people as old suburban racists who selfishly love their cars, it's striking that the SPD lost so heavily especially in areas where they performed strongly in 2021 with large numbers of immigrants, people with a migration background, lower income voters, and women. That's quite notable. I can't really think of many other elections where a party's heaviest losses were concentrated in their strongholds while holding up elsewhere.

The more I think about this election and look at the results, the worse it looks for the SPD. It's embarrassing that this happened in the first place.

Man Berlin sucks at elections.

One of the Germans who are more familiar with how things work can correct me, but this is not the fault of the Berlin election administration, but rather the postal service, which is mostly privatized. And in the end, a very small number of ballots out of millions are likely to get lost or arrive late in any city or country.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Somebody somewhere on the Internets (I don't know the original source) created this very useful table with the results of the district councils (BVV) and the mathematically-possible coalition options



And then some more on the state-level "inside vs outside the Ring":

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All that matters for me is that Die Linke went down.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Is there any person who can stop decline of Left?

[President Johnson]

I just realized that the Berlin election wasn't actually for a full five year term. The next election is still scheduled for 2026 as before. So technically it was indeed just a "repeat election" and not a snap election. The court in its ruling explicitly stated this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First round of talks between CDU and SPD/Greens are over. To be continued on Monday.

Tagesspiegel reports that the meeting between CDU and Greens seemed to be more amicable than the one between CDU and SPD, not that I would read much into it at that early stage. We don't even know how serious either SPD or Greens are about these negotiations or to what extent they are simulating them in a possible preparation for Red-Green-Red. The CDU going out of their way to be friendly towards the Greens today could be interpreted as a strategy to prevent just that though, to tilt them away from the SPD.

[Estrella]

Is there any person who can stop decline of Left?

A necromancer?

At its core, Die Linke is a nationalist party, except that the country whose national interest they put above all else doesn't exist. Of course such a party will get in trouble when SED apparatchiks, people who dreamed of being SED apparatchiks and anyone who remembers GDR start dying off. Eventually enough members of the party will come from the right side of the Wall and a transformation into a more-or-less normal left-wing party will be possible, but that's not guaranteed either. Plenty of Wessi Linke politicians (Sevim Dağdelen is the most prominent example) come off like their dream job is writing editorials for Great Purge-era Pravda.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just realized that the Berlin election wasn't actually for a full five year term. The next election is still scheduled for 2026 as before. So technically it was indeed just a "repeat election" and not a snap election. The court in its ruling explicitly stated this.

About the only detail of this absurd situation that isn't ludicrous, really.

[JimJamUK]

At its core, Die Linke is a nationalist party, except that the country whose national interest they put above all else doesn't exist. Of course such a party will get in trouble when SED apparatchiks, people who dreamed of being SED apparatchiks and anyone who remembers GDR start dying off. Eventually enough members of the party will come from the right side of the Wall and a transformation into a more-or-less normal left-wing party will be possible, but that's not guaranteed either. Plenty of Wessi Linke politicians (Sevim Dağdelen is the most prominent example) come off like their dream job is writing editorials for Great Purge-era Pravda.

When there are 2 other major left of centre parties to join, the small minority of Wessis who join the successor to the East German Communist Party are probably not going to hold the most mainstream of views, especially when it’s a party that has been de facto automatically excluded from power in the vast majority of state/federal elections it has contested.

[Oryxslayer]

At its core, Die Linke is a nationalist party, except that the country whose national interest they put above all else doesn't exist. Of course such a party will get in trouble when SED apparatchiks, people who dreamed of being SED apparatchiks and anyone who remembers GDR start dying off. Eventually enough members of the party will come from the right side of the Wall and a transformation into a more-or-less normal left-wing party will be possible, but that's not guaranteed either. Plenty of Wessi Linke politicians (Sevim Dağdelen is the most prominent example) come off like their dream job is writing editorials for Great Purge-era Pravda.

When there are 2 other major left of centre parties to join, the small minority of Wessis who join the successor to the East German Communist Party are probably not going to hold the most mainstream of views, especially when it’s a party that has been de facto automatically excluded from power in the vast majority of state/federal elections it has contested.

I mean a lot of other European countries have these style of testimonial leftists that see permeant opposition and criticism as more valuable then power and compromise. There's no reason why Linke can't find a niche. This is especially the case since the former West is over 5x larger than the former East, so only appealing in the East won't get one that far.

However, unlike an analysis of AfD that has occurred in another part of this board, Linke does really seem to remain tied to the East in a electorally detrimental fashion. Despite the massive voter imbalance between the former regions, it is like a 6:5 voter ratio between the Western and Eastern states using their 2021 vote. This is in contrast to the AfD, who both benefits from Eastern voter concentration but also earns many, many, more votes in former Western states to be relevant federally overall.

More importantly, Linke is not polling any higher than the 5% won at the last election despite there theoretically being a a niche constituency serviced by opposition to pro-Ukraine policies from the Left and the SPD are not in a strong electoral position. So one must wonder if Linke's single largest problem right now is the fact that the Greens exist and are a strong electoral force, something that doesn't really exist in other countries with more relevant testimonial parties. If there is another party taking a large swath of "alternative to Labor Party/Social Democrats" voters then the testimonalists will be even more niche. If there is a serious possibility of power, like the Greens actually have, then more voters are naturally going to gravitate there to see a positive impact of their vote.

It has often been commented - incorrectly - that Linke voters did and are going AfD. The reality though is that both parties in the east are Ostalgic - but in different ways and to different age cohorts. One actually remembers the past and has rose-tinted glasses, the other has no memory of that era and romanticizes it as better in certain ways. Death and generational replacement is therefore the real explainer of why states that Linke once topped the polls in are now AfD strongholds. That might be Linke's second major issue: they have a committed base so don't see the need to reform, but the natural cycle of replacement means the party needs to actually win serious numbers of votes in western cities like other Europeans testimonial parties to survive. Linke only won seats of the strength of a few incumbents, perhaps failing to cross the threshold federally will prompt the party to look in the mirror and realize their eastern vote can not buttress the party any longer. Or it will implode. Who t this point knows.

[Lord Halifax]

This is especially the case since the former West is over 5x larger than the former East, so only appealing in the East won't get one that far.

Somewhat exaggerated. You got 16 million people living in the former East (incl. the old East Berlin), compared with about 67 million in the former "Bonn republic", that's over 19% in the ehemalige DDR.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I mean, if you ask people who their favorite LINKE politician is, you'll mostly get two names who haven't really changed in the last ten years or so: Gregor Gysi and Sahra Wagenknecht - the former would, if not for his socialization, fit easily into the SPD, but commands much respect outside and - probably more difficult - within his party due to his historical significance and the fact that the was the face of the party when it was most successful, from its founding to approx. 2013. The latter is known for being controversial, this is her only thing right now. Gysi is 75 and, while trying to moderate some of the infighting behind closed doors, does not want to be (nor should he) the person who rejuvenates the party. So that leaves Wagenknecht. Moderate/socially progressive members would leave in droves.

The bitter truth is that LINKE just doesn't have a strong bench at the moment. The problem is that so many ambitious candidates are so involved in the infighting that they have become unacceptable to the other factions. Bartsch is an opportunist, a living compromise who stands for ?. They tried to build up Wisseler as a rising star but she is a disappointment. At this point, burning this whole thing to the ground and then figuring out what comes after is among the better options.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tagesspiegel has identified an electoral curiosity - a crossroads in Berlin where four different precincts meet which have voted CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left respectively.





It's also directly located at the border between the localities of Prenzlauer Berg (southwest - the SPD/Left areas) and Weißensee (northeast - the CDU/Green areas), both in the borough of Pankow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In other news, someone send a letter to Bettina Jarasch containing a bullet and the line "now you're dead". Police is investigating.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tagesspiegel has identified an electoral curiosity - a crossroads in Berlin where four different precincts meet which have voted CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left respectively.





It's also directly located at the border between the localities of Prenzlauer Berg (southwest - the SPD/Left areas) and Weißensee (northeast - the CDU/Green areas), both in the borough of Pankow.

Long ago, the four nations lived together in harmony. Then everything changed when the afd Nation attacked

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin SPD chair Raed Saleh has said that exploratory talks to form a government could take weeks and that they very well may end with the SPD going into the opposition.