🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Updated government formation schedule for next week:

Monday - CDU + SPD

Tuesday - SPD + Greens + Left

Wednesday - CDU + Greens

It was considered newsworthy that Red-Green-Red isn't waiting until talks with the CDU are finished one way or the other.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Updated government formation schedule for next week:

Monday - CDU + SPD

Tuesday - SPD + Greens + Left

Wednesday - CDU + Greens

It was considered newsworthy that Red-Green-Red isn't waiting until talks with the CDU are finished one way or the other.

Further schedule for this week:

Thursday - SPD + Greens + Left

Friday - CDU + SPD

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, some information leaked that SPD will be 53 votes ahead of the Greens in Berlin. Official announcement of the final results is scheduled for Monday.

Honestly, if Giffey attempts to hang on with this, it would be beyond embarrassing.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to Tagesschau, some information leaked that SPD will be 53 votes ahead of the Greens in Berlin. Official announcement of the final results is scheduled for Monday.

Honestly, if Giffey attempts to hang on with this, it would be beyond embarrassing.

Is it correct that Giffey is to be transferred to the Federal Ministry of the Interior?
Do you have insider information regarding that rumor?

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, some information leaked that SPD will be 53 votes ahead of the Greens in Berlin. Official announcement of the final results is scheduled for Monday.

Honestly, if Giffey attempts to hang on with this, it would be beyond embarrassing.

Is it correct that Giffey is to be transferred to the Federal Ministry of the Interior?
Do you have insider information regarding that rumor?

Never heard of it, and for sure I hope not. She should either remain a backbencher in Berlin or end her political career.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and SPD held their "final" round of exploratory talks on Friday. Next week there will be another round between SPD, Greens and Left (Monday) and CDU and Greens (Tuesday) respectively.

After that the parties are expected to settle for one of these options and officially begin with the government formation.

Interesting situation because one or way or the other this will essentially require for two of the parties to agree with each other that they want to give the third one the boot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tagesspiegel reports that the CDU has a preference for a coalition with the SPD.

[President Johnson]

Tagesspiegel reports that the CDU has a preference for a coalition with the SPD.

Not very surprising, on most issues they're closer to the Berlin SPD than Greens. Giffey even preferred a coalition with CDU and FDP in 2021 as far as I know. It was just internal pressure that got her to continue R2G.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/berlin-giffey-will-spd-koalition-mit-cdu-vorschlagen-18712752.amp.html

Looks like CDU-SPD might happen

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah well, expect the SPD's steadly decline to continue then.

[Isaak]

Wow, what a disaster for the Greens.

Last week, they thought they were merely a few votes away from a Jarasch-led Red-Red-Green coalition. And now they will be in the opposition for the next couple of years.

[President Johnson]

https://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/berlin-giffey-will-spd-koalition-mit-cdu-vorschlagen-18712752.amp.html

Looks like CDU-SPD might happen

While I'm not happy about this, it is clearly what the electorate apparently wanted the most. Just to continue with R2G would have looked like a slap in the face of voters.

I just wonder whether Giffey will seek to become a "senator" (state minister) in the cabinet. It happened just rarely that a former chief executive took another cabinet position. The only one I remember is Hans Ehard, who was (actually twice) Minister-President of Bavaria and then Minister for Justice. However, that was in the 1960s.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wow, what a disaster for the Greens.

Last week, they thought they were merely a few votes away from a Jarasch-led Red-Red-Green coalition. And now they will be in the opposition for the next couple of years.

The Greens coming in second could have made a grand coalition even likelier, considering that the SPD would have lost the mayorship as an incentive for continuing Red-Green-Red.

[Isaak]

Wow, what a disaster for the Greens.

Last week, they thought they were merely a few votes away from a Jarasch-led Red-Red-Green coalition. And now they will be in the opposition for the next couple of years.

The Greens coming in second could have made a grand coalition even likelier, considering that the SPD would have lost the mayorship as an incentive for continuing Red-Green-Red.

Sure. But either way, it's disastrous (and doesn't bode well for the future of Red-Red-Green as such).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wow, what a disaster for the Greens.

Last week, they thought they were merely a few votes away from a Jarasch-led Red-Red-Green coalition. And now they will be in the opposition for the next couple of years.

The Greens coming in second could have made a grand coalition even likelier, considering that the SPD would have lost the mayorship as an incentive for continuing Red-Green-Red.

Sure. But either way, it's disastrous (and doesn't bode well for the future of Red-Red-Green as such).

Dropping below 5% is disastrous. This is (probably) becoming leader of the opposition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

[Middle-aged Europe]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

It's pretty important, both for the prestige and the executive powers it entails ("Richtlinienkompetenz"). But there's also unwritten rules that will probably never be broken, like the largest party in a governing coalition will always get the position of head of government.

Why does the SPD then foreit the mayorship anyway despite the fact that it had the theoretical option of continuing with Red-Green-Red? The realities of political sustainibility or rather the lack of it. Look at the post-election polls what Berliners say which coalition they'd prefer and where Red-Green-Red stood there after the election. Look at the inernal discord among the Berlin SPD's rank and file regarding the continuation of Red-Green-Red.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

It's pretty important, both for the prestige and the executive powers it entails ("Richtlinienkompetenz"). But there's also unwritten rules that will probably never be broken, like the largest party in a governing coalition will always get the position of head of government.

Why does the SPD then foreit the mayorship anyway despite the fact that it had the theoretical option of continuing with Red-Green-Red? The realities of political sustainibility or rather the lack of it. Look at the post-election polls what Berliners say which coalition they'd prefer and where Red-Green-Red stood there after the election. Look at the inernal discord among the Berlin SPD's rank and file regarding the continuation of Red-Green-Red.

Ah.
Thanks for the very thorough reply.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Both Tagesspiegel and RBB report about growing resistance from the Berlin SPD's left wing against a grand coalition:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/wollen-keine-verzwergung-in-der-berliner-spd-formiert-sich-widerstand-gegen-schwarz-rot-9433364.html

https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/abgeordnetenhaus/agh-2023/beitraege/berlin-koalition-spd-cdu-groko-widerstand-giffey-jusos.html


Interesting development. Will Giffey be able to quell the rebellion? Or will the supporters of a grand coalition and of Red-Red-Green within the SPD cancel each other out in the end, with the party ending up in opposition after all?

My money at this point is probably still on a grand coalition, although it will be a unpopular one among the SPD.

[President Johnson]

CDU apparently prefers a coalition with the SPD, which is hardly a surprise. I think that's ultimately going to happen. The big question is what Giffey is going to do as there's no chance the CDU won't demand the mayor's office. Especially when they're ten points ahead.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SPD state party board (?) votes to open formal coalition negotiations with the CDU 25 in favor and 12 against

There will also be party debates and then a membership vote as well

[President Johnson]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

It's pretty important, both for the prestige and the executive powers it entails ("Richtlinienkompetenz"). But there's also unwritten rules that will probably never be broken, like the largest party in a governing coalition will always get the position of head of government.

Why does the SPD then foreit the mayorship anyway despite the fact that it had the theoretical option of continuing with Red-Green-Red? The realities of political sustainibility or rather the lack of it. Look at the post-election polls what Berliners say which coalition they'd prefer and where Red-Green-Red stood there after the election. Look at the inernal discord among the Berlin SPD's rank and file regarding the continuation of Red-Green-Red.

Interestingly though the Mayor of Berlin doesn't have a full authority to issue policy guidelines (Richtlinienkompetenz). According to the constitution of Berlin, these guidelines need approval by the legislature. Bremen is the only other (city) state with a similar provision.

It's also an open debate among political scientists how much the Richtlinienkompetenz is actually worth, both at the state and federal level. Some argue that it's pointless because a chief executive has just limited options to enforce his/her guidelines without either passing a law anyway or outright fire a cabinet member. You can hardly do the latter when a cabinet member of a coalition party is involved because any government coalition would consequently break up.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD state party board (?) votes to open formal coalition negotiations with the CDU 25 in favor and 12 against

Hardly a resounding vote of confidence, but alas.