🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

The election result in my precinct in the Southwest of Friedrichshain. Massive shift from the Left Party to... the CDU.

Party vote
CDU 24.2% (+16.2)
Left 20.4% (-14.1)
SPD 18.0% (-3.5)
AfD 15.3% (-0.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.9)
Animal Protection Party 4.1% (+2.8 )
Die PARTEI 2.1% (-0.3)
FDP 1.5% (-0.7)

My precinct has a relatively old demographics (and many have probably lived here for more than 20 years) which might in part explain it. What it doesn't explain is how the Left Party managed to lose "only" 3.4% city-wide, considering that I happen to live in the archetypical Left stronghold.



The pattern was somewhat similar in the overall electoral district of mine, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 04, albeit not nearly as extreme. It's of note that the SPD came in only fourth here.

Greens 22.4% (+3.5)
Left 21.5% (-6.0)
CDU 18.2% (+9.1)
SPD 17.1% (-2.3)
AfD 6.9% (-3.7)
FDP 3.6% (-0.5)
Animal Protection Party 2.3% (+0.9)
Die PARTEI 1.9% (-1.4)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tagesspiegel reports about calls from within the ranks of the Berlin SPD that Giffey needs to go.  Some imply it to be a prerequisite for a continued Red-Green-Red coalition:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/chaos-nach-berliner-wahlniederlage-in-der-spd-wird-offen-die-ablosung-von-franziska-giffey-diskutiert-9340145.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Per exit polls; Greens eating sh-t on transportation situation, SPD eating sh-t on housing 😬

What does this mean in practice? Voters want more car-centric urbanism and more laissez faire Housing policies? Or is it just disagreement with the nitty gritty of how RRG has handled these issues?

Edit: what parties have got the blame for the Brandenburg Airport shambles over the past decade?

Wowereit, but that's long ago.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There seems to be a lot of soul-searching going on within the SPD today.

Shall they continue with Red-Green-Red? If so, with or without Giffey?

Or rather a grand coalition? Or opposition?

A lot depends on the depending on the outcome of upcoming talks with CDU and/or Greens and which option gains the most momentum within the SPD in the meantime.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the chances of a black-green coalition?

I know they spared each other little on the campaign trail, but in itself that isn't always decisive.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the chances of a black-green coalition?

I know they spared each other little on the campaign trail, but in itself that isn't always decisive.

Some arguments brought forward in the debate do indeed amount to: SPD is the loser of this election, CDU (in the outskirts of the city) and the Greens (in the center of the city) are the winners and therefore should govern together.

Greens have formulated a clear preference for Red-Green-Red though, so it would largely depend on the SPD saying "no" to that one first. Then the path would be open for either CDU/SPD or CDU/Greens. Some vocies within the SPD seems to prefer going into the the opposition which would favour a Black-Green coalition, while the relative distance between CDU and Greens on transportation and mobility issues would favour a grand coalition.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Berlin didn't just have state elections to the House of Representatives, it also had repeat elections for the district-level governments (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung or simply "BVV"). Berlin is unique in that its district-level governments actually have decision-making powers (compare to Hamburg, where they are merely advisory), something which some people have criticized as the root of Berlin's chaotic administration and slow planning & construction, because districts can make legally-binding decisions that go against the decisions of the state government.

Here, the SPD also saw major losses to the CDU. Here is 2021:


 
and here is 2023:



In Neukölln, the SPD-Greens both suffered losses and now have 4 seats short of a majority, and will have to enter coalition negotiations. In the Gropiusstadt, where some of the worst violence against police and firefighters occurred on New Years, there was a major SPD --> CDU swing:



Some people from the RRG camp are coping with the CDU's win by playing cheap identity politics ("only suburban boomers supported the CDU because they are racist and love their cars!!!!"), but clearly, even poorer immigrants do not enjoy their neighborhoods being trashed and worry about crime and attacks on police, firefighters, and ambulances. Even in that little SPD corner, the SPD only edged out the CDU 33.0% to 32.8%. You can also see similar swings to the CDU in other immigrant-heavy neighborhoods like Wedding, or basically every single housing project in the city.

Germany is a country with low crime rates and pretty high levels of social cohesion, has generally managed integration of immigrants much better than other countries despite also having a large immigrant population, and avoided destructive rioting like Paris in 2005 or Stockholm in 2013/2018. Any indication that this is breaking down is clearly not acceptable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the chances of a black-green coalition?

I know they spared each other little on the campaign trail, but in itself that isn't always decisive.

Some arguments brought forward in the debate do indeed amount to: SPD is the loser of this election, CDU (in the outskirts of the city) and the Greens (in the center of the city) are the winners and therefore should govern together.

Greens have formulated a clear preference for Red-Green-Red though, so it would largely depend on the SPD saying "no" to that one first. Then the path would be open for either CDU/SPD or CDU/Greens. Some vocies within the SPD seems to prefer going into the the opposition which would favour a Black-Green coalition, while the relative distance between CDU and Greens on transportation and mobility issues would favour a grand coalition.

Little known fact (I guess) about Bettina Jarasch is that the Bavarian-born Green lead candidate is a member of the Central Committee of German Catholics and the leader of the pastoral council of a Catholic church in Berlin-Kreuzberg, so I guess at least culturally she looks as good a fit for the CDU as anyone.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Edit: what parties have got the blame for the Brandenburg Airport shambles over the past decade?

Wowereit, but that's long ago.

Wowereit did many things wrong, but one thing he did right by stepping down in time. Not immediately after the BER disaster, but early enough in order for his successor Müller to establish himself, in doing which he was obviously successful.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Per exit polls; Greens eating sh-t on transportation situation, SPD eating sh-t on housing 😬

What does this mean in practice? Voters want more car-centric urbanism and more laissez faire Housing policies? Or is it just disagreement with the nitty gritty of how RRG has handled these issues?

More the latter than the former. Berliners are very supportive of more subways, streetcars, bicycle lanes, busses, etc. (even the CDU campaigned on more frequent bus service in the city!), but dislike how the Greens are solely focused on attacking automobiles. The way the Greens handled the closing, reopening, and then closing again of Friedrichstraße with little warning was not well received, and Bettina Jarasch has been lampooned as having an obsessive focus on shutting that street down. Combined with the fact that the Greens have opposed expanding the subways to the outskirts, it comes off as only caring about people living inside the Ringbahn and disdaining people outside of it.

For housing, people did indeed vote for expropriation back in 2021, but other opinion polls have also showed that people want more building from both private developers and also the six state-owned housing companies. There is deep frustration about the lack of construction, combined with skyrocketing rents. And the SPD has led the government for 22 years, and is traditionally the most pro-building party, so they get the blame here.

The SPD's hemming and hawing on the expropriation question also certainly did not earn it a lot of love amongst left-wing voters, either.

I know they spared each other little on the campaign trail, but in itself that isn't always decisive.

"Sparred" is very much the understatement The Berlin Greens are a very leftist chapter of Greens, more so than even the Greens in other major cities like Hamburg or Cologne, let alone any of the southern state parties.

There are massive disagreements between the Greens and CDU in Berlin on key issues like housing and transportation policy. The Greens want to expropriate housing, which the CDU opposes. The CDU wants to not only finish the section of the A100 motorway that is currently under construction in Neukölln/Treptower, but also expand it eastwards across the Spree which would required demolitions of housing, clubs, and businesses. The Greens are adamantly opposed. The Greens want more car-free streets in the city center; the CDU is mostly opposed.

Yes, CDU-Green has a mathematical majority, but I don't see this happening at all. It would genuinely be shocking to me, and one of the two would have to basically cave to the other on issues their voter bases care deeply about. Compare to a continuation of RRG, which is chaotic enough but still can agree on some things, or CDU-SPD, who have very similar election programmes.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Greens have formulated a clear preference for Red-Green-Red though, so it would largely depend on the SPD saying "no" to that one first. Then the path would be open for either CDU/SPD or CDU/Greens. Some vocies within the SPD seems to prefer going into the the opposition which would favour a Black-Green coalition, while the relative distance between CDU and Greens on transportation and mobility issues would favour a grand coalition.

Rumors have it that Giffey is being talked about as the next Federal Minister of the Interior in order to replace incumbent Nancy Faser, who is reported to leave office soon to zero in on her gubernatorial election in Hesse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not exactly evenly distributed.

SPD second votes:

There are always patterns - and this is the usual one, which is slightly different to what the usual one was a decade ago - but the map absolutely shows a fairly evenly distributed pattern of support if you look at the keys with most wards showing results not more than a few points different to the citywide average. Now, once you drill down to polling district results then you do see sharper patterns as a rule, and I doubt it will have been different this time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Berlin Greens are a very leftist chapter of Greens, more so than even the Greens in other major cities like Hamburg or Cologne, let alone any of the southern state parties.

That wasn't really my impression after having been a member of this state party for 12 years. The dynamic whithin the Berlin Greens have always been described as "the Kreuzberg Greens are very left-wing, the rest of the state party... not so much".

Of course, given the consistently strong election results of the Greens in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg one could perhaps say that the F-K Greens make up almost half of the Berlin Greens overall.

Which basically amounts to: the leftist wing of the state party comes from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, and the Realo wing from the other eleven boroughs of the city.

Resistance against Black-Green should therefore expected from Kreuzberg, the Green chapter in Steglitz-Zehlendorf, for instance, wouldn't be that opposed however. Bettina Jarasch has her electoral district in Spandau which should you something about her too along with her aforementioned memebership in the Central Committee of German Catholics.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

 
and here is 2023:

I’m sure it’s been asked and answered before but what exactly are the AfD heavy areas on the Easter fringe like? Such as their “stronghold” Marzahn. What’s the vibes of these parts.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I’m sure it’s been asked and answered before but what exactly are the AfD heavy areas on the Easter fringe like? Such as their “stronghold” Marzahn. What’s the vibes of these parts.

Educationally alienated blue-collar workers and Plattenbau occupants. Many Kevins and Chantals. Quite many Spätaussiedler. Also a relatively huge Nazi and Underground fighting scene in that area.

To get an impression how Berliners view Marzahners, here's a photo of a prominent "comedian" from that area who became famous for her parodies of the life style of those people:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're Plattenbau* estates, though by no means the only ones in the city (to risk understatement). Marzahn was about the last such district to be built and my memory is that the full plan for the district was never actually finished. If anything distinguishes the estates in Marzahn, and also in the North of Hellersdorf, it's their relative isolation. But in Berlin exactly who leads where only ever tells you a fairly small part of the story, the city's politics being so fragmented and kaleidoscopic. Always important to avoid FPTP brain.

_{*Term for DDR-era system-built high-rise housing. A literal translation is 'panel building'.}

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Some people from the RRG people are coping with the CDU's win by playing cheap identity politics ("only racist boomers supported the CDU because they are paranoid and love their cars!!!!").

*cough* PUTP's close personal friend and clan member Sawsan Chebli *cough*

[President Johnson]

As much as I support the SPD in general, but there's really no case to make in my opinion to continue R2G, despite maintaining a majority in the legislature. C'mon, man, you can't lead a government with 18.4% of the vote and just 100 something ahead of the Greens. If Greens and CDU can't agree on a coalition, there should be a Black-Red government (it doesn't really deserve the title "grand coalition").

Giffey may not have governed as bad as some want us to believe, but she still screwed up and should resign. And not take any other major role. She should retreat to become a backbencher or go into the private sector.

I don't have any faith in the CDU's ability to govern effectively, but apparently that's what people wanted. So let them get in, and if Wegner does a poor job, fire him in the next election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As much as I support the SPD in general, but there's really no case to make in my opinion to continue R2G, despite maintaining a majority in the legislature. C'mon, man, you can't lead a government with 18.4% of the vote and just 100 something ahead of the Greens. If Greens and CDU can't agree on a coalition, there should be a Black-Red government (it doesn't really deserve the title "grand coalition").

Giffey may not have governed as bad as some want us to believe, but she still screwed up and should resign. And not take any other major role. She should retreat to become a backbencher or go into the private sector.

I don't have any faith in the CDU's ability to govern effectively, but apparently that's what people wanted. So let them get in, and if Wegner does a poor job, fire him in the next election.

Well, there could be a situation, if Giffey really wanted to stay in power, where the best way to do this is to hold coalition talks with the CDU for maybe three or four months before they ultimately fail. Then you could say it's either a comtinuation of Red-Green-Red or another early election.

Giffey sounded a lot more open to a grand coalition this evening. Question is whether she's honest about that or whether we are looking at the scenario I just described.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's btw one scenario which was ruled out by Giffey today: The Israeli option where she would continue as mayor for half a term before handing the office over to the Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They're Plattenbau* estates, though by no means the only ones in the city (to risk understatement). Marzahn was about the last such district to be built and my memory is that the full plan for the district was never actually finished. If anything distinguishes the estates in Marzahn, and also in the North of Hellersdorf, it's their relative isolation. But in Berlin exactly who leads where only ever tells you a fairly small part of the story, the city's politics being so fragmented and kaleidoscopic. Always important to avoid FPTP brain.

_{*Term for DDR-era system-built high-rise housing. A literal translation is 'panel building'.}

I happen to live in a DDR Plattenbau area in Friedrichshain. What this means in terms of this election I have described earlier today (massive shift from Left to CDU while everybody remains relatively stable).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do the Greens oppose expanding subways?

[President Johnson]

There's btw one scenario which was ruled out by Giffey today: The Israeli option where she would continue as mayor for half a term before handing the office over to the Greens.

I also heard of that, but this was never tried in any German government as far as I can remember. There was some talk after the 2005 federal election, but never came to fruition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why do the Greens oppose expanding subways?

Strictly speaking they don't. According to their election platform the decision to expand subways should be the result of feasibility studies and cost-benefit analyses. This relatively neutral stance is the result of them prioritizing the expansion of tram lines over the expansion of subway lines, arguing that trams lines are cheaper and faster to built. As such, they support building tram lines in many areas of Berlin in their platform, including one to the outlying borough of Spandau.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Man Berlin sucks at elections.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1625490766591307778?t=CEv-F8UFP4fQtSwHcR...