🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Sad to see Bodo ousted in such a way.

He was one of the better, leftwing Governors ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Federal government has just cancelled the "Regional Conference Sustainability Strategy 2020" which was supposed to take place tomorrow in the Thuringian state capital of Erfurt with the minister-president hosting.

[President Johnson]

Sad to see Bodo ousted in such a way.

He was one of the better, leftwing Governors ...

Yes, he is one of the best members of his party. But I think it's likely he will return after a snap election. Curious to see new polling after these events.

[Tender Branson]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just saw an interview with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer on ZDF:

"Thomas Kemmerich should resign, the Thuringian CDU should have abstained instead of voting for Kemmerich, I had personally asked (FDP federal chair) Christian Linder to convince his Thuringian state chapter to not run a candidate of their own but apparently he was unable to do so, we've been duped by our state chapters..."

AKK and Lindner should both just resign, since they're apparently useless and impotent.

[rob in cal]

  Would love to see a poll of FDP and CDU voters in Thuringia about how they feel about whats going on.

[Aurelio21]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

This is quite unlikely, as he would need the votes from the CDU. Thuringia's CDU has denied claims of a snap election.
By the way, the cooperation of CDU, FDP and AfD has been foreshadowed by several common votes on procedural topics in the time between. Even today, the Landtag adjourned himself with the votes of these three parties.
After watching this I come to the conlusion:
This is a full grown cooperation. Mr Mohring and Mr Kemmerich are lying through their teeth everytime when they say "Whoops, AfD voted with us accidentally. That is not our fault if they vote for us. But this is a democratically elected parliament, so everything is alright".

[Middle-aged Europe]

To me, it has become apparent that a head-on confrontation between the federal CDU and the Thuringian CDU may become inevitable at one point. Right now, we have the situation that the CDU's federal executive board decides one thing and the next thing that happens is that the Thuringian CDU does the exact opposite. For instance, AKK already lost a lot of credibility when she stumbled through that interview she gave ZDF today. The federal CDU is trying to avoid and postpone this confrontation as long as possible but this could come to an end eventually. The expulsion of the Thuringian state chapter has been mentioned more than once today, so it may ar least come tonthe federal CDU formally issueing that as a threat and an ultimatum. And it will then up to the Thuringians to decide which path they want to go. (Behind all of this also stands the issue that the federal CDU wants to form a coalition with the Greens next year.)

It's a bit different with the FDP. They were all over the place today, with some (well, Kubicki at least) congratulating Kemmerich on his election and others outright demanding Kemmerich's immediate resignation. Lindner attempted to steer through this by taking some kind middle ground, producing a lot of hogwash in the process and looking impotent as a dog whose balls had just been clipped. In any case, the FDP came to the brink of civil war today with a desparate Lindner attempting to maintain peace... question is for how long and could it cost him the chairmanship in the end?

[Flyersfan232]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

Wouldn’t a Kurz be him going into coalition with the afd?

[Tender Branson]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

Wouldn’t a Kurz be him going into coalition with the afd?

No.

Kurz, like Bodo, was ousted as Chancellor/Governor.

Kurz made a stunning comeback as Chancellor, with an even better election result than before.

Bodo could achieve the same in snap elections, with a different party landscape because of the scandalous events ...

[rob in cal]

  If the AFD in Thuringia was led by someone other than Hocke, without his political baggage, would there be as much of a controversy, or would cooperation with any state AFD party, regardless of where in Germany, be a political outrage.?

[Astatine]

Has a party leading a government actually ever lost all of its seats in the subsequent election? Might happen soon...

(assuming that Slovenia '14 doesn't count as Alenka Bratušek had already left her party ahead of the election while continuing to serve as Prime Minister)

[Hnv1]

So is there going to be another election? how is the state government ran for now?

[Former President tack50]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

[Middle-aged Europe]

So is there going to be another election? how is the state government ran for now?

Thomas Kemmerich is the minister-president and he has a couple of Left/SPD/Green state secretaries from the previous adminstration running the ministries in an acting capacity. The actual ministers ceased to be members of the cabinet with Kemmerich's election yesterday.

FDP chairman Christian Lindner is in the Thuringian state capital of Erfurt right now. Lindner's goal is to personally urge Kemmerich to step down.

[Middle-aged Europe]

  If the AFD in Thuringia was led by someone other than Hocke, without his political baggage, would there be as much of a controversy, or would cooperation with any state AFD party, regardless of where in Germany, be a political outrage.?

It's safe to assume that there would be always some degree of backlash. Given that Höcke is in charge of the Thuringian AfD this is certainly the worst case scenario though. Which of course makes Kemmerich and Mohring look even more moronic.

Had they gotten away with it had the AfD leader been a moderate like Georg Pazderski in Berlin? Maybe, maybe not. Then again, the point may be moot anyway, since Pazderski could actually be too "respectable" to pull a stunt like propping up a trojan horse candidate first and then suddenly discontinue that support so that the AfD can orchestrate a stealth-vote for a FDP candidate without any prior announcements to the public.

[Velasco]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

Wouldn’t a Kurz be him going into coalition with the afd?

No.

Kurz, like Bodo, was ousted as Chancellor/Governor.

Kurz made a stunning comeback as Chancellor, with an even better election result than before.

Bodo could achieve the same in snap elections, with a different party landscape because of the scandalous events ...

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't Kurz the guy who broke the cordon sanitaire in Austria?  

Have you noticed the policy known as "cordon sanitaire" is at the core of this political crisis?

#austriaposting

[Cassius]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

Wouldn’t a Kurz be him going into coalition with the afd?

No.

Kurz, like Bodo, was ousted as Chancellor/Governor.

Kurz made a stunning comeback as Chancellor, with an even better election result than before.

Bodo could achieve the same in snap elections, with a different party landscape because of the scandalous events ...

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't Kurz the guy who broke the cordon sanitaire in Austria?  

Have you noticed the policy known as "cordon sanitaire" is at the core of this political crisis?

#austriaposting

It was actually Wolfgang Schüssel (also of the ÖVP) who broke the cordon sanitaire around the FPÖ in 2000 - causing various EU governments to place half-hearted sanctions on Austria, which were abandoned once it became clear that Schüssel wasn’t about to buckle. As far as I’m aware Kurz’ initial coalition with the FPÖ wasn’t particular controversial as these things go.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

No idea.

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

I'm not entirely sure. The FDP during the 1950 and the Greens during the 1980s had some problems with Nazi infiltration among their ranks. In the FDP's case by actual former Nazi party members and in the case of the Greens by back-to-the-soil/Germanic-tribes-had-lived-in-harmony-with-nature Neo-Pagan Nazis. I think that I remember that in one of these cases a state chapter may have been cut lose by the mother party. But like I said, I'm not really sure. It's possibly that only the members of the state chapter's executive board were expelled from the party, but the state chapter itself remained.

[Former President tack50]

Has a party leading a government actually ever lost all of its seats in the subsequent election? Might happen soon...

(assuming that Slovenia '14 doesn't count as Alenka Bratušek had already left her party ahead of the election while continuing to serve as Prime Minister)

Not in the EU of course, but Turkey 2002 (ie, the start of the Erdogan era) should count I guess. Turkey had some huge thresholds though the party leading the government was very far from meeting them anyways, getting only 1.7% of the vote

[Middle-aged Europe]

Christoph Kindervater, the trojan horse-like AfD candidate in yesterday's election, has just resigned as mayor of Sundhausen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP federal executive committee is planning an emergency session tomorrow. An unnamed member of the committee is quoted as saying that the purpose of the meeting is to discuss Thomas Kemmerich's possible expulsion from the FDP in case that Lindner remains unssuccessful today in urging his resignation.

Meanwhile, Left, SPD and Greens in Thuringia are considering a vote of no confidence against Kemmerich. For that to succeed they'd need four additional votes from the CDU or FDP. In yesterday's election they had apparently received two votes from these parties, so they're still two votes short.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING:

FDP in Thuringia intends to file a motion to dissolve the state parliament and call new elections. Thomas Kemmerich about to resign (statement by him in ca. twenty minutes).

[Middle-aged Europe]

How ironic.

All three candidates from yesterdays' election (Ramelow, Kemmerich, Kindervater) are now out of a job.

Well done.

[Velasco]

It was actually Wolfgang Schüssel (also of the ÖVP) who broke the cordon sanitaire around the FPÖ in 2000 - causing various EU governments to place half-hearted sanctions on Austria, which were abandoned once it became clear that Schüssel wasn’t about to buckle. As far as I’m aware Kurz’ initial coalition with the FPÖ wasn’t particular controversial as these things go.

Good. Schlüssel was the first guy who broke the cordon sanitaire. Forgot about him, thank you.

Anyway I guess it's not difficult to get the point. Given that Germany is a country where the policy of cordon sanitaire is still in force, that shoehorn comparison between the Thuringian premier and the Austrian guy seems a bit out of context. I'd say the fact that the Kurz-Strache government didn't raise much controversy reinforces my point of view: look at the political storm triggered in the neighbouring country.