🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Umengus]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

[jaichind]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

[kaoras]

I can see Linke's campaign: A strong and stable leadership with Bodo Ramelow or chaos with CDU-AFD-FDP.

I bet that The Linke is going to steal votes from CDU.

[urutzizu]

Seeing writing on the wall, CDU fraction in Thuringia says will not support snap election. If CDU+AFD vote no to a snap election, then it cannot pass as it needs 2/3. Total Chaos lmao. They could engineer a Schröder-style fake no-confidence vote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seeing writing on the wall, CDU fraction in Thuringia says will not support snap election. If CDU+AFD vote no to a snap election, then it cannot pass as it needs 2/3. Total Chaos lmao. They could engineer a Schröder-style fake no-confidence vote.

That statement was produced before the news of Kemmerich's resignation broke. In these very fast-moving times, it's unclear what their current position on the issue is now. I mean Kemmerich just said things in his press conference that were the exact opposite of his yesterday's statements.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

[Aurelio21]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

For a similar precedent, you would have to go to 1921, in saxony. This time, the federal SPD sacked the SPD saxony (which was the dominating party in these times with varying shares of votes from 30 to 45 % ) for a coalition government with the communist KPD.

Back to Thuringia: The CDU caucus continues to refuse snap elections - as I assumed. A snap election would be disastrous for them as they clearly know.

Either the dissolution motion of Kemmerich succeeds(If the CDU does not approve, they need Höcke's AfD - again) or the motion of no confidence (likely as FDP, Grüne, LINKE and SPD have a majority), and there will be no FDP votes for a new AfD supported prime minister again.

Thus a snap election is most likely.

Even if the rest of the forum thinks that a snap election is the only solution:
- The common thuringian CDU voter and FDP possible voter who sympathizes with the AfD has now an excuse to actually vote AfD.  Anyone remember the days after the election in october? From several local CDU barons to the Vice Caucus Chair a AfD-supportet minority government was proposed. The cooperation culminated with electing Kemmerich and adjourning the diet promises an alternate majority bejond a CDU SPD FDP coalition
- If Höcke is as cunning as he has shown, he will nominate a CDU sympathizing independent as PM candidate
- With changing their opinion and denying the obvious truth, CDU voters of the center / center-left will now likely abstain, or voting for SPD or Greens.
- The FDP will likely gain some votes for getting rid of Ramelow - he is not everywhere beloved!

An independent all-party government without the AfD would be a far more viable alternative.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, although it was after Kemmerichs resignation and the FDP supporting a election was reported by the media.

The release of that statement, yes. Keep in mind though that it takes time to coordinate and agree on such a statement. So, it was most likely voted on at a point before any news on Kemmerich's resignation broke. By now it has been rendered pretty much irrelevant.

I'd say that a snap election is all but given now. The FDP minister-president wants a snap election, the federal CDU wants a snap election, Left, SPD, Greens want a snap election. Insisting on not holding a snap election doesn't make sense any longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to some reports, Christian Lindner basically told Thomas Kemmerich: Either you go or I go. Do you want me to resign?

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, Christian Lindner - looking a bit f**ked up after a night which probably had not contained much sleep - just gave a press conference, essentially saying:

We never wanted to win yesterday. With the Kemmerich candidacy we only wanted to show that a non-extremist, moderate alternative theoretically exists. It's the CDU's fault that they suddenly all voted for our candidate.

[jaichind]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

I have to assume that in an election there will be a consolidation of the vote toward Linke and AfD vote in which case the risk of FDP and Greens falling below 5% would be a key factor in which bloc gets a majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

I have to assume that in an election there will be a consolidation of the vote toward Linke and AfD vote in which case the risk of FDP and Greens falling below 5% would be a key factor in which bloc gets a majority.

My prediction would be: CDU and FDP lose, Left and AfD gain (both at the expense of the CDU like they already did in October), SPD and Greens about the same.

Unless Left, SPD, Greens win an outright majority I would also say that a CDU-SPD-Green  minority government (assuming the FDP is gone from the parliament) with confidence and supply from the Left has also become a hell of a lot more likely now due to the events of the last 24 hours. The time of experiments and taking chances is probably over.

[Middle-aged Europe]

An INSA opinion poll conducted after Kemmerich's election, but before his resignation (in brackets the difference to the parliamentary election in October):

Left 34.0% (+3.0)
AfD 23.0% (-0.4)
CDU 19.0% (-2.8 )
FDP 7.0% (+2) - FDP actually receiving a bump due to Kemmerich's election, let's how it looks next week *lol*
SPD 6.0% (-2.2)
Greens 6.0% (+0.8 )


Anyway, the first parties have positioned themselves with regards to the FDP's intention to call for another election:

Left - Aye.
SPD - Aye.
Greens - Nay, for the moment - let's try holding another MP vote in parliament first.
AfD - We need to discuss this first.
CDU - No further response from the state party yet. The federal CDU approves.

[Former President tack50]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Speaking of which, I hope FDP falls below threshold. That would allow for a relatively easy red red green coalition, which would solve the issues and allow Germany to kick the can of "what happens with a negative majority?" 4 more years.

Eventually, someone is going to have to cave in some German State (almost certainly in East Germany). Either CDU (and/or possibly FDP) cooperate with Linke, or they cooperate with AfD. But one cordon sanitaire will have to be broken eventually

[Umengus]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Interesting question.... maybe Left and CDU agree to support a non-partisan government of experts? There aren't really much options left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

The thing is that there weren't really negotiations with the AfD... not officially anyway. Almost everybody involved denies the existence of negotiations, while some in the AfD basically gloated "haha, we've successfully played you!".

So, I fail to see how this lends respectability to the AfD. They nominated a candidate of their own, but not because they wanted to vote for him or because they wanted to got him elected, but as a ploy to lure the FDP into a candidacy of their own. After this was achieved they threw their own candidate under the bus and secretely voted for the FDP guy without any prior announcement. As a result, there was a 24-hour FDP minority government which relied on their five members of parliament until he the newly elected minister-president resigned and called for a snap election.

Granted, this scheme was masterfully executed but does it really lend respectiability to the AfD? Would Frank Underwood from House of Cards actually gain in popularity if all the manipulations he had ever done came to light? If anything, it looks like the AfD played games with the constitution and the state's institutions. It leaves a bit of an ugly taste...

I only wrote that that the AfD would gain (but perhaps less so than the Left) because I think CDU and FDP look even stupider. And the latter look stupider because there has been lots of open infighting among their ranks, while the AfD has been pretty unified. So, these partes will lose some votes over it which have to go somewhere now.

[Helsinkian]

AfD should vote for the Linke candidate to be the Minister President. Just to troll them. Then he would have to resign as well.

Maybe the AfD group could split their votes so that a few of them will vote for a candidate from each of the other parties. Then no-one can be Minister President.

[Hnv1]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Interesting question.... maybe Left and CDU agree to support a non-partisan government of experts? There aren't really much options left.

Communists supporting a government of "expert" i.e. liberal clerks. now that's something

[Aurelio21]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Speaking of which, I hope FDP falls below threshold. That would allow for a relatively easy red red green coalition, which would solve the issues and allow Germany to kick the can of "what happens with a negative majority?" 4 more years.

Eventually, someone is going to have to cave in some German State (almost certainly in East Germany). Either CDU (and/or possibly FDP) cooperate with Linke, or they cooperate with AfD. But one cordon sanitaire will have to be broken eventually

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

First of all, a SPD failing to get elected into a state diet has never occured and will immediately lead to the CDU/CSU - SPD federal coalition falling apart. The federal SPD will be forced to leave the unloved coalition, leading to a federal snap election.

There will be enormus pressure from the federal CDU now on the local CDU to form a LINKE-lead "expert government".
Remember this?: https://www.rnd.de/politik/thuringer-cdu-politiker-koalition-mit-afd-nicht-ausschliessen-VHILWSU36CBULATOB5ZNO7OP4I.html

There is a strong movement within the CDU Thuringia to cooperate with the AfD. In this maelstrom, the last party of the center will be ruptured and torn apart. If the federal CDU wins, there would be a mass exodus of local politicians. If the municipal CDU wins, the federal CDU will be forced by the Greens to expel the whole chapter (as Mr. Habeck already dlaims for a viable CDU-Green-coalition).

The local and federal CDU are not driven by ideology, but for having a say in getting members and affiliates into alimented positions. In an "expert government", there is hardly a place for getting enough members well-paid positions and assignments (spoils system).  Thus the local CDU looses, which could not be replaced with enough jobs on federal level in a possible CDU-Greens coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD should vote for the Linke candidate to be the Minister President. Just to troll them. Then he would have to resign as well.

Maybe the AfD group could split their votes so that a few of them will vote for a candidate from each of the other parties. Then no-one can be Minister President.

The issue you're implying here wasn't really the issue at hand.

The point was that Kemmerich was elected MP and that he wouldn't have been elected without the AfD. That he recquired the AfD's votes to achieve a goal. One which he eventually achieved that way. Let's assume that the CDU would say that they'll vote Ramelow (Left) as MP well. Nobody would give a f**k how the AfD voted, because Ramelow would have been elected without the AfD anyway.

All of this is of course also completely academical since the AfD's party line is and always has been that they wanted to prevent a socialist MP in favour a conservative one. So they can't simply vote for the Left. Their entire political strategy amounts to "we're a completely normal, non-radical party of the centre-right camp and hence CDU and FDP are our natural allies". That's why they helped get Kemmerich elected in the first place, to underline that claim. They'd lose credibility if they'd simply flip-flop on that. So everybody knows they'd never vote for a Left candidate in the first place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

[Umengus]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

The thing is that there weren't really negotiations with the AfD... not officially anyway. Almost everybody involved denies the existence of negotiations, while some in the AfD basically gloated "haha, we've successfully played you!".

So, I fail to see how this lends respectability to the AfD. They nominated a candidate of their own, but not because they wanted to vote for him or because they wanted to got him elected, but as a ploy to lure the FDP into a candidacy of their own. After this was achieved they threw their own candidate under the bus and secretely voted for the FDP guy without any prior announcement. As a result, there was a 24-hour FDP minority government which relied on their five members of parliament until he the newly elected minister-president resigned and called for a snap election.

Granted, this scheme was masterfully executed but does it really lend respectiability to the AfD? Would Frank Underwood from House of Cards actually gain in popularity if all the manipulations he had ever done came to light? If anything, it looks like the AfD played games with the constitution and the state's institutions. It leaves a bit of an ugly taste...

I only wrote that that the AfD would gain (but perhaps less so than the Left) because I think CDU and FDP look even stupider. And the latter look stupider because there has been lots of open infighting among their ranks, while the AfD has been pretty unified. So, these partes will lose some votes over it which have to go somewhere now.

it seems to me that at first, the support of afd had been "accepted" by the liberals. cfr the handshake between the afd leader and the fdp leader.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

The thing is that there weren't really negotiations with the AfD... not officially anyway. Almost everybody involved denies the existence of negotiations, while some in the AfD basically gloated "haha, we've successfully played you!".

So, I fail to see how this lends respectability to the AfD. They nominated a candidate of their own, but not because they wanted to vote for him or because they wanted to got him elected, but as a ploy to lure the FDP into a candidacy of their own. After this was achieved they threw their own candidate under the bus and secretely voted for the FDP guy without any prior announcement. As a result, there was a 24-hour FDP minority government which relied on their five members of parliament until he the newly elected minister-president resigned and called for a snap election.

Granted, this scheme was masterfully executed but does it really lend respectiability to the AfD? Would Frank Underwood from House of Cards actually gain in popularity if all the manipulations he had ever done came to light? If anything, it looks like the AfD played games with the constitution and the state's institutions. It leaves a bit of an ugly taste...

I only wrote that that the AfD would gain (but perhaps less so than the Left) because I think CDU and FDP look even stupider. And the latter look stupider because there has been lots of open infighting among their ranks, while the AfD has been pretty unified. So, these partes will lose some votes over it which have to go somewhere now.

it seems to me that at first, the support of afd had been "accepted" by the liberals. cfr the handshake between the afd leader and the fdp leader.

A handshake isn't that much. And like I said there's a lot ambiguity involved. Plus, the thing that will probably stick in people's memories the most is that everything was completely chaotic and crazy for a couple of days.

What I'm trying to say is that this was far from being an orderly government formation. What it looked like is that everything seemed to go totally nuts all of the sudden. And making everything go totally nuts doesn't really lend credbility to anyone.