🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today I overheard someone describing the Thuringia government formation crisis as "Germany's Brexit" as in  an ongoing stalemate which paralyzes the political system.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg polls


Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (02/20)

SPD 39%
Greens 24%
CDU 12%
Left 8.5%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%


University of Hamburg (02/19) - outlier poll, take it with a grain of salt

SPD 34%
Greens 32%
CDU 12%
Left 7%
FDP 6%
AfD 5%


INSA (02/18)

SPD 38%
SPD 23%
CDU 13%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia update: Left, SPD, Greens, and CDU are still negotiating. It seems much likelier now that the CDU is going to lend the four votes necessary to elect Bodo Ramelow minister-president again. The main disagreement is still about if and when a snap election should be held. The CDU wants to push the date back as far into the future as possible, since polls show that they'd lose about of their vote share right now. So they insist that another election shouldn't be held this year, only  next year maybe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Aaaand they've finally got a deal in Thuringia. On March 4, Bodo Ramelow will get elected minister-president of a Left-SPD-Green minority government with the help of some CDU lend votes. In return, the next legislative election is now set for a late date: April 25, 2021.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Pretty bad deal for the CDU. On the other hand, it's probably the best one they could have hoped for.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pretty bad deal for the CDU. On the other hand, it's probably the best one they could have hoped for.

Well, they essentially had two choices, both of them bad: Either a Left-SPD-Green minority government with a admittedly small chance of ousting that government in a year from now or a Left-SPD-Green majority government which would serve a full legislative term until 2025.

With that in mind, the lesser evil probably had something going for it. Of course, given Ramelow's strengthened popularity we might just end up with a Left-SPD-Green majority government in a year from now. In that case, at the very least the CDU has now the opportunity to influence government policy until next year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next round has started: With yesterday's decision to cooperate with the Left Party, the CDU in Thuringia has violated a standing party rule on not cooperating with the Left.

A few supporters of such a deal had previously argued that this standing party rule is in violation of political reality and that reality ultimately supersedes party rules. Nevertheless, a number of CDU politicians including secretary-general Paul Ziemiak, health minister and CDU chairmanship candidate Jens Spahn, and President of the Bundestag Wolfgang Schäuble have today voiced their opposition to the Left-CDU agreement in Thuringia, and Ziemiak has announced that the CDU Presidium will discuss this violation of party rules at their next meeting on monday.

On the other hand, former Thuringian minister-president Christine Lieberknecht (CDU) and former CDU secretary-general Ruprecht Polenz have approved of the deal. Schleswig-Holstein's incumbent minister-president Daniel Günther (CDU) who - given previous statement on the matter - most likely supports the deal as well, hasn't made a public statement yet.

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg state election today.

Polls close at 6pm.

Turnout so far until 11am was about 5.5% higher (incl. postal votes) compared with 2015.

Yet in 2015, final turnout was a joke: just 56.5% voted.

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg turnout ca. 8% higher until 2pm:

[RedPrometheus]

The opinion polls seem to have been quite accurate.

[Tender Branson]

4pm turnout in Hamburg was 57% (already higher than the crappy 56.5% end turnout in 2015).

It is likely that it will be around 64-65% this time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Polling places in Hamburg have closed.



ARD/Infratest dimap exit poll

SPD 37.5%
Greens 25.5%
CDU 11.5%
Left 9.0%
FDP 5.0%
AfD 4.7%

[President Johnson]

Prognosis at 8 pm:

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen exit poll

SPD 38.0%
Greens 25.5%
CDU 11.0%
Left 9.5%
FDP 5.0%
AfD 4.8%

[Tender Branson]

FDP & AfD could both be out ?

LOL.

[President Johnson]

FDP & AfD could both be out ?

LOL.

AfD out would be absolutely glorious.

[bigic]

This probably means no realistic coalition without SPD.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

ZDF live blog has good maps and statistics: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/wahl/buergerschaftswahl_2020/Wahl-Hamburg-Wahlbeteiligung-steigt-weiter,hhwahlliveblog100.html

scroll down a little bit and there is an interactive map of Hamburg showing unemployment rate (Arbeitslose), new housing construction (Neue Wohnung), percentage of high school students (Gymnasiasten), people with a foreign background (Migrationshintergrund), and doctors per 1000 residents (Ärtzedichte), but to switch between the maps you need to click "Auswählen"

[President Johnson]

This probably means no realistic coalition without SPD.

No, the Greens already said the want to continue the red-green coalition. It's the most likely outcome.

[bigic]

This probably means no realistic coalition without SPD.

No, the Greens already said the want to continue the red-green coalition. It's the most likely outcome.

Yeah, but even if they wanted a Jamaica coalition that won't be possible according to the exit poll.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

First-time voters in Hamburg:


The over-70 vote:


Current seat projection, assuming FDP stays above 5%:

[President Johnson]

AfD and FDP could still enter. Projections as of 8.47 pm:



_{https://www.tagesschau.de/}

[Middle-aged Europe]

ARD und ZDF are only differing slightly anymore with regards to the SPD and Green results.



ARD, 9:43 p.m.

SPD 39.1%
Greens 24.2%
CDU 11.2%
Left 9.1%
AfD 5.2%
FDP 5.0%


ZDF, 9:33 p.m.

SPD 39.2%
Greens 24.1%
CDU 11.2%
Left 9.1%
AfD 5.2%
FDP 5.0%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Strongest party 2020:


Compare to 2015:


Second strongest party 2020:

[republicanbayer]

With all precincts counted, FDP is once again at 5.0%, 120 votes above the threshold. Still, a source in the party told me they won't make it once the results are finalized tomorrow.