🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gerhart Baum (FDP), former federal minister of the interior (1978-1982):

"A whiff of Weimar is lying over the country. The evil is back."

[Former President tack50]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

So, nothing will get solved and in fact things will only get worse?

Anyways, given the negative majority Thuringia now has to choose between 3 "unthinkable and unholy" options: CDU-AfD cooperation, CDU-Linke cooperation or FDP-Linke cooperation. The math literally does now allow for any other options.

Though maybe this move hurts FDP and makes them drop below the threshold, meaning a majority Linke-SPD-Greens government can be formed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

So, nothing will get solved and in fact things will only get worse?

Anyways, given the negative majority Thuringia now has to choose between 3 "unthinkable and unholy" options: CDU-AfD cooperation, CDU-Linke cooperation or FDP-Linke cooperation. The math literally does now allow for any other options.

Though maybe this move hurts FDP and makes them drop below the threshold, meaning a majority Linke-SPD-Greens government can be formed.

In his first adress to parliament, Kemmerich has just invited CDU, SPD and Greens to join the government.

Annalena Baerbock, federal chairwomen of the Greens, has called for Kemmerich's immediate resignation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Michael Kretschmer (CDU), minister-president of neighbouring Saxony:

"This is not a good day for Thuringia. The CDU in Thuringia didn't accept that she lost the election and that there can't be any cooperation with the AfD."

[Aurelio21]

The problem is that both FDP and Grünen are dangerously close to the 5% hurdle. If Liberals fail and Greens hold, it'd be fantastic; if both fail, it'll be a disastrous outcome. On the other hand, I get the impression that both CDU and FDP are trapped in an impossible dilemma. The parties of the "democratic right" reject alliances with the "populist right", but also reject to tolerate a minority government led by Ramelow (minority governments are not usual in Germany, right?). I guess it's not only a matter of anticommunism; christian democrats and liberals must be afraid of further AfD gains at their expense... Any recent poll?

Here the most recent poll one week ago:
 
CDU 19% -2.7
SPD 8 % NC
GRÜNE 6 % +1
FDP 6 % +1
LINKE 32 % +1
AfD 24 % +3
Others 5 % NC

Source:
Infratest
dimap
MDR
T • 1.000
executed from 21.01. to 25.01.
published 28.01.2020

Note that was BEFORE the election. Even flirting with the AfD gave them a boost of legitimacy in the eye of the CDU electorate. At the base of the CDU, FDP and even rural SPD voters and local politicians (Guido Reil is one of the typical represantitves of this class of SPD members) the AfD topics are seen as quite right, only their extremism kept theses voters and funtionaries from aligning them with it or in case of the SPD finally breaking with the party and thus taking the last step of the SPD death spiral.

A snap election would only accelerate these trends. I am expecting a result like this:
LINKE: 34 %
AfD: 28 %
CDU: 15 %
FDP: 8 %
SPD: 6 % (if they are lucky)
Greens: 5 % (they will not profit in a very small town state like Thuringia from FFF)
Others: 4 %

[urutzizu]

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP federal executive board, on Kemmerich's election:

"To let yourself get elected by someone like Höcke is under democrats unacceptable and intolerable. Therefore this is a bad day for me as a liberal."

Yet, I'm sure the board isn't considering kicking Kemmerich out of the party.

I mean deputy leader Kubicki just called his election a "huge victory", so its unlikely. The FDP desperately wants to break the Cordon sanitaire, because otherwise they cannot return to power without the greens. And tonight they did not break it but they ripped a massive hole.

SPD and Greens will never go along with this. The question is now whether the CDU is willing to risk snap elections where they will lose hard. If not, then there will be a CDU-FDP Government, de facto tolerated by the AFD (or just a FDP minority) and then today will go down in history as a turning point in German politics.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ulf Poschardt, editor-in-chief of the conservative Die Welt newspaper (Axel Springer):

"Someone who lets himself gettting elected minister-president by a repulsive right-wing extremist like Björn Höcke brings disgrace over liberalism."


Paul Ronzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of the BILD tabloid newspaper (also Axel Springer):

"A FDP man who lets himself getting electing minister-president by fascists makes himself guilty. The party of Höcke is made socially acceptable. What a disgrace."


I'm getting the feeling that Kemmerich could be gone very soon.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I mean deputy leader Kubicki just called his election a "huge victory", so its unlikely.

Kubicki made the congratulatory remarks earlier today before the whole sh**tstorm avalanche started though, so it may have been a bit premature just like Dorothee Bär's already deleted congratulations.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP federal chairman Christian Lindner has urged CDU, SPD, Greens to accept Kemmerich's offer to form a government, adding "the FDP doesn't negotiate with the AfD, there's no basis for a cooperation, I can't be the federal chairman of a party which cooperates with the AfD".

Paul Ziemiak, secretary-general of the federal CDU, and Markus Söder, chairman of the CSU, have both called for a snap election in Thuringia.

[Aurelio21]

I'm getting the feeling that Kemmerich could be gone very soon.

There will be an enormus pressure. But don't underestimare the clinging to power (and pork) by the FDP and CDU.

I am old enough to remember the precedent in Hesse in 2000: After the involvement into the CDU donation scandal of the CDU prime minister Koch became known, the local FDP chairman wanted to break the coalition and call for snap elections. In the end, the functionaries of the FDP duped him and continued the coalition, with the result of an CDU majority at the next election.

Fast forward to today: About 2/3 of the CDU caucus favor a cooperation with the AfD, and the FDP just wants ministerial posts, and benefits for pharmacists and hoteliers. That's their only left purpose.

Mike Mohring (Chairman CDU Thuringia) has just prevented the CDU from splitting. Keep in mind that 2 CDU MP voted for Ramelow, and 1 CDU MP abstained (likely Mohring himself under these three). If he would have had the power, there would be a LINKE-CDU government or toleration now.
His party adversaries have openly proposed a AfD-backed CDU-FDP minority government. Thus his days are over now.

Anyone in the CDU caucus claiming that he or she would be surprised by the election either lies or lies to himself. A tactical voting of the AfD was likely, as their own PM candidate proposed an AfD-CDU-FDP cooperation as his main motif of his candidacy.

Thus I conclude: If Mohring is disposed by his own caucus and party (likelier than not), and regarding the stubbornness of many Thuringians against interference from outside (an heritage of 50 years control by the Soviets), than Kemmerich's chances aren't that bad.
Either he will have a continued minority government formed by the FDP, sustained by CDU and AfD informally.
In a snap election, the AfD will continue to rise, CDU to decay, FDP gaining some ground due to Kemmerich's courage. This would only cement his position, as the AfD will continue its strategy of minority tolerance and thus not expose their inability to be part of a government.

There are several examples in Weimar history of a PM split of his party and backed by the other block, like Max Heldt (Old SPD) in saxony.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak: "Politically, the FDP has played with fire and has set Thuringia and our entire country on fire today."

Seems like the CDU has decided to throw the FDP under the bus. They're the scapegoat now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1225077710956957697

[Aurelio21]

About Mr. Ziemiak: How dumb does he think that everyone is? 18 of 21 CDU MP voted for Mr. Kemmerich. 82 % of the caucus is open for a cooperation with the AfD.

Calling for a snap election is the only face-saving gesture for saving the CDU/CSU-SPD federal government.

In Thuringia, a AfD-tolerated minority government has widespread support of municipal office holders, not only from CDU and FDP, but from many unaffiliated and Freie Wähler.

[Cassius]

Another useful contribution from Verhofstadt...

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU federal chairwomen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer:

"The Thuringian CDU has acted against the expressed recommendations, demands, and pleas of the federal party."

She also joined the calls that a snap election in Thuringia may the best way out of this.

[CumbrianLefty]

CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak: "Politically, the FDP has played with fire and has set Thuringia and our entire country on fire today."

Seems like the CDU has decided to throw the FDP under the bus. They're the scapegoat now.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch tbf.

[Aurelio21]

CDU federal chairwomen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer:

"The Thuringian CDU has acted against the expressed recommendations, demands, and pleas of the federal party."

She also joined the calls that a snap election in Thuringia may the best way out of this.

Translation: Everyone within the CDU knew about the plan for electing Mr. Kemmerich. Contrary to the claim of Mr. Mohring who said "this just happened" and "who could ever think of the AfD would play along". Again, how dumb does he think everyone else is?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Joachim Stamp, state chair of the FDP in Northrine-Westphalia, has also called for Kemmerich's resignation.

[rob in cal]

 This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

[Aurelio21]

There was an alledged CDU Meeting on the eve of the election where they committed themselves an electing Kemmerich. With support of Bernhard Vogel, Ex-PM. Who stems from western germany.

This was totally calculated. As I mentioned above, on municipal level are cooperations of FDP, CDU, AfD and Freie Wähler quite common. Especially in Thuringia.

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

Kemmerich is such an idiot, it is incredible. His only chance now is to immediately step down and offer a public apology for accepting his election. Otherwise, we'll see new state elections very soon, which will most likely end in a disaster for both CDU and FDP.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.

[Pick Up the Phone]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.

As I have already observed at previous occassions, there's a significant and increasing split between the West German/federal CDU and the East German CDU (and apparently between their respective FDP counterparts) on the issue, so before a CDU-AfD coalition is actually forged in the Eastern states  the Eastern state chapters of the CDU may have to secede from the federal CDU and form sort of a East German CSU as a new and separate party.