🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

I personally predict the following results ("confidence intervals" in brackets):

Saxony
CDU: 31.5 % (29-33)
AfD: 24.6 % (23-27)
Left: 13.5 % (12-15)
Green: 10.8 % (10-12)
SPD: 7.5 % (6-9)
FDP: 5.1 % (4-6)
FW: 4.0 % (3-5)

Brandenburg
SPD 23.4 % (21-25)
AfD 21.6 % (19-23)
CDU 16.2 % (15-17)
Left 13.8 % (13-15)
Green 12.5 % (10-15)
FDP 4.9 % (4-6)
BVB/FW 4.4 % (4-6)

I assume that the parties of the respective incumbent governors will get a slight incumbency boost (like visible in the most recent polls), especially on cost of Greens and the respective other "major" party (so SPD in Saxony and CDU in Brandenburg), only to avoid making the AfD largest force. AfD will neither over- nor underperform significantly but likely be in the low to mid twenties in both states with stronger performance in Saxony. I could see the possibilities for some more surprises, for instance that SPD performs horribly badly in Saxony just slightly above 6 % or that FDP fails in both states, while BVB/FW narrowly make it into Parliament.

[Astatine]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

I personally believe that a high turnout in urban centers will hurt the Free Democrats in Saxony. Holger Zastrow ran a very poor campaign (considering that the Liberals have a much stronger base in Saxony than in Brandenburg, 5 % in polling is a bad result), the FDP in Saxony is rather more of a conservative center-right party with free market elements (they're completely anti-cannabis legalization for instance), and Zastrow personally appeals to the right which could easily alienate the urban, progressive and rather young base which brought the FDP into the Bavarian Parliament narrowly last year (they overperformed among young voters). Strong turnout in urban centers could easily make the reentrance of FDP into Saxonian Parliament more of a nailbiter. I wouldn't be surprised if they failed to enter Saxonian Parliament but make the run in Brandenburg.

[Astatine]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

I personally believe that a high turnout in urban centers will hurt the Free Democrats in Saxony. Holger Zastrow ran a very poor campaign (considering that the Liberals have a much stronger base in Saxony than in Brandenburg, 5 % in polling is a bad result), the FDP in Saxony is rather more of a conservative center-right party with free market elements (they're completely anti-cannabis legalization for instance), and Zastrow personally appeals to the right which could easily alienate the urban, progressive and rather young base which brought the FDP into the Bavarian Parliament narrowly last year (they overperformed among young voters). Strong turnout in urban centers could easily make the reentrance of FDP into Saxonian Parliament more of a nailbiter. I wouldn't be surprised if they failed to enter Saxonian Parliament but make the run in Brandenburg.

The FDP's stronghold in Saxony in the federal election 2017 was Dresden. Thus, a high turnout in that city could redound to their advantage.

That was a federal campaign, in which the federal FDP ran on a different platform than the FDP in Saxony this year. While Christian Lindner has (or had) strong appeal among the younger urban voters, Holger Zastrow lacks it. Zastrow refused to participate in the leader interview series of Tilo Jung (whose channel has broad reach among younger voters), but gets interviewed by Russia Today instead. FDP even failed to submit their answers for the WahlNavi mobile app for weeks. In a recent ZEIT portrait about himself, Zastrow was quoted that he does not care that much about civil rights but rather about economy (typical "old FDP"), he uses typical right-pandering terms like that he's not a career politician (tho he has been leading his party since 1999...) and advocates a minority government of CDU and FDP which could be tolerated by AfD in several cases. He was critisized by his own party members and only got about 70 % of delegate vote as their leader for the election.
Regardless of what I think about his positions, but I doubt that the way Zastrow goes will be successful as the position as pragmatic softly-immigration-critical center-right party with slightly conservative and liberal elements is already occupied by FW (who could get a substential number of votes, 3-4 % are realistic) and CDU to some degree.

[Astatine]

FDP out in both Parliaments.

[Astatine]

With 30 % of votes counted in Barnim II, Peter Vida (BVB/FW) is currently at 24.3 %, ahead of Britta Stark (21.3 %). Looks like BVB/FW is going to reenter Parliament even if they fail to get 5 %.

[Astatine]

I noticed something quite interesting:

Now for the time in history there are two Western states in which the Left is stronger than in another Eastern state. The strongest Western states for the Left are (my home state of) Saarland with 12.8 % in the 2017 elections and Bremen with 11.3 % in the 2019 elections, both state parties are now stronger than those in Saxony and Brandenburg. While Saarland is quite unique because of Oskar Lafontaine (who helped the Left gain 21 % in 2009), now the times for the Left as major Eastern party seem to be officially over.

[Astatine]

In Saxony I guess it will be CDU-SPD-Greens for ruling bloc ?  It seem same for Brandenburg unless SPD-Greens are willing to include the Left. CDU-SPD-Greens coalition seems like the best way for the AfD vote share to rise even further next election.

SPD-CDU-BVB/FW does not seem too unrealistic for Brandenburg. Could imagine that happening, especially if the Greens insist that coal should be abandoned earlier than 2038, which might strengthen the AfD as a short-term consequence.

[Astatine]

BTW:

Do you think Gov. Bodo Ramelow‘s Linke will also collapse below 20% in Thüringen next month, as seen yesterday, or will there be a rally-effect for the incumbent governor, also as seen yesterday ?

No, he's got the incumbent's bonus. Plus, he is much more moderate than his other East German colleagues.

This. I could see the CDU vote collapsing instead, as happened in Brandenburg. The Left has a big incumbency bonus with a popular and down-to-Earth Governor who is even respected among moderate Christian Democrats such as former Governor Christine Lieberknecht (I could imagine that if she had won reelection in 2014, CDU would be favorite for the Thuringia elections now as she was still quite popular in spite of some scandals). CDU leader Mike Mohring pandered to AfD in 2014 (which was more of eurosceptical party including some conservatives, libertarians, national consevatives and far right extremists back then) to avoid a red-red-green coalition, and this could hurt him permanently as a vote for CDU in Thuringia would not be perceived a vote against AfD. I even could see the Left getting above 30 % of the votes, with SPD and Greens on a low level.
I would not say it's unlikely CDU becomes third largest party (although it should not be forgotten that the party has strong roots in several parts of the state). If future polls suggest a red-red-green majority, I could even see a boost in favor of FDP (to avoid that coalition tactically, as the race for #1 could already be over).

Early estimates for Thuringia (2014 result in brackets) - quite vague until new polls are being conducted:
The Left 25-33 % (28.2 %)
AfD 23-26 % (10.6 %)
CDU 17-23 % (33.5 %)
Green 7-12 % (5.7 %)
SPD 6-10 % (12.4 %)
FDP 3-6 % (2.5 %)

[Astatine]

First exit polls ZDF/ARD:

Left Party 30/29.5
AfD 23/24
CDU 22/22.5
SPD 8/8.5
Greens 5.5/5.5
FDP 5.5/5

Only possible coalition options appear to be red-red-green-yellow (Left/SPD/Green/FDP) - if the FDP makes it into Parliament - or red-black (Left/CDU)... Wow, political stalemate.

[Astatine]

If the exit poll is absolutely precise, then the Greens would lose in the popular vote in comparison to the previous election for the first time since October 2017. The Greens would decline for the second time in a row in Thuringia (6.2 % in 2009, 5.7 % in 2014, 5.5 % in 2019), but with a big if.

AfD has become second most-voted party in every Eastern German state now (without Berlin).

Worst showing for SPD+CDU combined in history in any German regional election (about 30 %).

The Left becomes largest party for the first time in their history.

If the FDP makes it into parliament, then they would enter an Eastern German state parliament for the first time since 2009.

[Astatine]

New ZDF projection sees Greens behind FDP now at 5.3 % and increasingly closer to the 5 % threshold (FDP: 5.5 %), but seems quite quite unlikely that they will drop out of Parliament although their perfomance in rural areas is still quite bad (narrowly above 3 % in current vote count). ARD sees FDP behind Greens, still at exactly 5 percent.

current projections ZDF/ARD

CDU 22.2/22.7
Left 29.5/29.6
AfD 23.8/23.6
SPD 8.0/8.7
FDP 5.5/5.0
Greens 5.3/5.4

[Astatine]

This evening appears to be even more of a nailbiter for FDP and Greens, ARD sees both at 5.0 %, ZDF both at 5.1 %.

With 90 % of the votes countes, the FDP is at 4.97 % and the Greens are at 4.8 %. Although not that likely as most of the precincts still due to be report are more urban, this could be the first election since 2006 in which the FDP enters a state parliament while the Greens do not.

The irony: In first votes (constituency votes), the Greens are at 6.0 % and the FDP at 5.2 %...

[Astatine]

This evening appears to be even more of a nailbiter for FDP and Greens, ARD sees both at 5.0 %, ZDF both at 5.1 %.

With 90 % of the votes countes, the FDP is at 4.97 % and the Greens are at 4.8 %. Although not that likely as most of the precincts still due to be report are more urban, this could be the first election since 2006 in which the FDP enters a state parliament while the Greens do not.

The irony: In first votes (constituency votes), the Greens are at 6.0 % and the FDP at 5.2 %...

Nope.

A lot of Erfurt is still missing and once this is counted, both Greens and FDP will easily be in.

Yup, both about 100 votes away from reaching 5 % with precincts still reporting seeing Greens at 9 % and FDP at 6 %.

[Astatine]

Current constituency vote:

CDU 27.5 % (-10.2)
Left 25.4 % (-4.0)
AfD 22.4 % (+20.1) - they only ran candidates in 9 constituencies last time
SPD 10.8 % (-4.
Greens 6.3 % (+0.3)
FDP 5.3 % (+2.7)

If the seats were distributed according to that result, we would see the following Landtag:

CDU 24
Left 23
AfD 20
SPD 10
Greens 6
FDP 5

But as the constituency votes do not really matter, this just a speculative "what if"...

[Astatine]

FDP @ 4.995%

4.999% now!

4.9998% to be exactly ...

Every vote counts !

53 508 votes for FDP, 1 070 194 valid votes * 0,05 = 5 percent threshold at 53 510 votes, oooof.

Florida elections are not suspenseful at all in comparison to that one here.
Greens in Saarland 2012 (5.0 %) can confirm as well as Liberals in Saxony-Anhalt in 2016 (4.9 %) and Leftists in NRW in 2017 (4.9 %).

[Astatine]

FDP just fell below 5% again. 4.9994%; 11 voting stations to go. Talk about a nailbiter.

Edit: And now they're back...5.0003%. 10 voting stations left.

5.0004 %, 4 votes above the threshold with 3014/3017 counted. Quite likely that the final results and not the preliminary ones will decide whether the Free Democrats succeed or fail.

In the Hesse state election in 2018 (most recent one where I could find comparisons of preliminary and final results), FDP benefitted disproportionally the most and gained 0.01 %p with finalized recounting, which could save them in Thuringia. Don't know if there is more data on that from other elections, but would be interesting to see which party benefits the most from recounts.

[Astatine]

All votes counted. FDP at 5.0005 %, 5 votes above the threshold.

Final results with recounts in some precincts could still change that...

[Astatine]

Has a party leading a government actually ever lost all of its seats in the subsequent election? Might happen soon...

(assuming that Slovenia '14 doesn't count as Alenka Bratušek had already left her party ahead of the election while continuing to serve as Prime Minister)

[Astatine]

I wonder how Christine Lieberknecht (former CDU Premier, who got into office after a political thriller in 2009 - in the third vote and then voted out by red-red-green in 2014 in spite of winning the elections) must be feeling these days..

[Astatine]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.

In the end, AKK had to back down yesterday. For now, the CDU opposes a snap election, alternatives should be explored first.

Mike Mohring also suggested this morning that his party wouldn't try to block Ramelow's election were he to run again in state parliament. That's probably a position that only exists until he's pressured by his state party to walk back on it.

Meanwhile, Forsa has released a Thuringia state election poll, conducted yesterday:

Left 37.0% (+6.0)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 12% (-9.7)
SPD 9% (+0.8 )
Greens 7% (+1.8 )
FDP 4% (-0.5%)
Other parties 7% (+1.5)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Even enough for Red-Red.

[Astatine]

I wonder how Christine Lieberknecht (former CDU Premier, who got into office after a political thriller in 2009 - in the third vote and then voted out by red-red-green in 2014 in spite of winning the elections) must be feeling these days..

This post did not age well.

[Astatine]

New Thuringia poll (compared to March)

Left 37 (-1)
AfD 23 (-2)
CDU 18 (+3)
SPD 7 (-1)
Greens 7 (+1)
FDP 4 (±0)

Might have to do with CDU's current bounce in federal polls, but the state party's plan to not have snap elections this year seems to play off to some degree. I do see them consolidating at ~20 % until April 2021, so they apparently will have saved a couple seats and avoid an embarrassing wipeout.

[Astatine]

Today local elections are taking place in North Rhine Westphalia. All mayors and city councils get elected. Runoffs will take place in 2 weeks.
As NRW is the most populous state of Germany, this election is of great significance. It might determinate the fate of the CDU leadership candidacy of Armin Laschet, since he is Minister President of NRW and a poor CDU performance (considering his mixed performance during the Covid crisis) might hurt his chances substantially.

Some elections I know about because of friends are the mayoral elections in Cologne and Düsseldorf. In Cologne, incumbent independent mayor Henriette Reker is almost certain to win an overall majority in the first round according to polling seeing her at 61 %. Her candidacy is being backed by CDU and Greens. Five years ago, she got elected mayor in the first round after an assassination attempt. As far as I know, she was not really controversial during her term. Her most prominent opponent is SPD candidate Andreas Kossiski who can expect 22 % according to the most recent poll.

Düsseldorf is an interesting because third parties might actually have an impact. Five years ago, SPD candidate Thomas Geisel defeated the then-CDU mayor, but his performance as mayor is quite controversial, for example due to questionable decisions regarding traffic. His CDU opponent is Stephan Kellner, a district mayor from Cologne. Both candidates could expect 31 % according to the last poll. FDP candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who was deputy mayor for some years and is one the most prominent women in FDP leadership, might stand a chance to get into the runoff. She was seen at 17 % (considering the Germany-wide trend for FDP, an outstanding performance) and as far as I can recall, I saw a non-representative local newspaper poll seeing her in the runoff with Geisel. And the Green candidate Stefan Engstfeld is also likely to perform well, his performance was 14 % in polling.

Don't know enough about the other towns and cities, but I suppose that especially the Greens could make significant gains on local level.

[Astatine]

Overview...

CDU: Some minor losses, but overall solid performance and better than mostly expected. This result will rather strengthen Laschet than weaken him and once again shows that CDU is the only "large party" remaining.

SPD: Ouch. Losing several of their strongholds and might get defeated in important cities (Düsseldorf...) in runoffs.

Greens: Good results in total, strengthening their position to be in 2nd spot in federal elections next year.

AfD: Gains on paper, but it should be noted that AfD didn't file candidates in many cities six years ago. Not great, not terrible, but really not overwhelming.

FDP: Very weak. They're governing in NRW and still lost in comparison to the terrible result of 2014. This election will make it even more questionable how long Christian Lindner will be leader after a likely underwhelming result next year.

Left: Weak. They lost (mostly in favor of Greens), I personally wonder whether the "radical" wings' presence in last week following the Navalny murder attempt could have hurt them. Not good sign for a possible reentrance into state parliament in 2022.

PARTEI: Gains overall, usual left protest vote.

VOLT: Remarkable result for a grassroots movement. They outperformed FDP in Cologne and might hurt both FDP and Greens as they are a progressive, liberal and pan-European party. Could see them gaining 1-2 % in next federal elections.

[Astatine]

Updated exit polling:

CDU 35.0 (-2.5)
SPD 23.8 (-7.6)
Greens 18.7 (+7.0)
FDP 5.5 (+0.
AfD 5.0 (+2.4)
Left 3.6 (-1.1)
Others 8.4 (+1.0)

I am actually glad to see the AfD being pushed to 5th place, hope they get a 4.x result. It really shows how asymmetrically Germany votes: While AfD is basically a "Volkspartei" in the East even on local level, they're hardly relevant in the West.