🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Aurelio21]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

[Flyersfan232]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

could with in 20 years you see a cdu and fdp working with the afd?

[Middle-aged Europe]

But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Even if he were to actually gain votes over having to resign after only 24 hours as MP this doesn't take into account the votes he previously had and may lose now. Maybe his losses over this whole affair will by far outweigh any gains? And like I said, it's far from certain that he will even run again for parliament. Today, he refused to answer that question in his press conference.



Anyway, the AfD has started to send mixed with regards to the motion to call a snap election:

State chair Stefan Möller - it tends to be unlikely that the AfD's members of parliament will support this

Federal chair Tino Chrupalla - it's a good thing that there's a snap election now

Ah, well, it seems through a vote of confidence there will be a snap election one way or the other.

[Flyersfan232]

AfD should vote for the Linke candidate to be the Minister President. Just to troll them. Then he would have to resign as well.

Maybe the AfD group could split their votes so that a few of them will vote for a candidate from each of the other parties. Then no-one can be Minister President.

They should legit do it

[Aurelio21]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

could with in 20 years you see a cdu and fdp working with the afd?

I am for paying attention for detail:
- Until now, there were several motions in the thuringian diet, in which CDU, FDP and AfD made a common cause against R2G. Including yesterday adjourning the parliament to shield Mr Kemmerich from embarrassing questions he would have had to face. During his acceptance speech, he did NOT allow any questions and rebuttals. This is very uncommon in german parliaments where every caucus ALWAYS gets a speaking time to react to government declarations

- There will be enormous pressure from subsidary organisations in Thuringia, like the junior CDU, the SBO association etc. who either want positions or influence on economical policies where they see the AfD as "minor" nuissance. A delcartion Pro Kemmerich from these associations happened today in accordance with Mr Mohring. 30 minutes before Mr. Kemmerich declared he would propose a dissolution of parliament or a Schröder-motion-of confidence(he intends to lose to pave the way for snap elections).

Yesterday we just whitnessed how far this cooperation-in-denial has proceeded. Just wait for my mentioned scenario with no viable partners (SPD death spiral) for the CDU left except the Greens. This will rupture the party apart.

[Aurelio21]

But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Even if he were to actually gain votes over having to resign after only 24 hours as MP this doesn't take into account the votes he previously had and may lose now. Maybe his losses over this whole affair will by far outweigh any gains? And like I said, it's far from certain that he will even run again for parliament. Today, he refused to answer that question in his press conference.



Anyway, the AfD has started to send mixed with regards to the motion to call a snap election:

State chair Stefan Möller - it tends to be unlikely that the AfD's members of parliament will support this

Federal chair Tino Chrupalla - it's a good thing that there's a snap election now

Ah, well, it seems through a vote of confidence there will be a snap election one way or the other.

Let's wait and see. The most recent poll seems to indicate more gains than losses. In the SBO community, he will be very popular. Also with the typical more-right-than-center voter who constitutes his albeit small voter base. There is not a considerable FDP voter base in Thuringia like in Rhineland Palatinate which is open to a coaltion with the SPD. With my calculation, he will win more support. But your thesis might be also vindicated.

[jaichind]

I have to assume that a Linke+SPD+Green majority is possible or even likely if Greens can get above 5% despite what I might hope for.  Still I think this is a great opportunity for the local FDP and CDU to assert that they will make common cause with AfD if necessary to stop a Linke led government.  They might lose this time but will win next time.

[rob in cal]

  So what is exactly accomplished if new elections yield roughly the same political balance?  Why not accept Kemmerichs resignation and keep trying for a new approach now instead of going for new elections?

[CumbrianLefty]

  So what is exactly accomplished if new elections yield roughly the same political balance?  Why not accept Kemmerichs resignation and keep trying for a new approach now instead of going for new elections?

Well, an election might do that - or equally it might not.

If the result then is similarly inconclusive, maybe that is the time to consider other things.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mike Mohring (CDU) has just written on Twitter that he opposes a snap election (despite the fact that the CDU Presidium of which Mohring is a member of unanimously voted in favour of s snap election).

Instead he suggests an alternate course of action: The minister-president has the option to call for a vote of confidence and if the MP loses that vote the state parliament has the opportunity to elect a new minister-president.

He doesn't elaborate who he thinks should succeed Kemmerich as MP. Does he plan to give Ramelow a second chance? Does he think of himself? In the case of the latter he'd need to get a plurality without the support of the AfD otherwise he'd only be MP for 24 hours himself.

[President Johnson]

There is new poll from today (Source)

Left: 34% (+3)
AfD: 23% (-0.5)
CDU: 19% (-)
SPD: 6% (-2)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FDP: 7% (+2)


Would be hilarious if the SPD drops below 5%.

[Flyersfan232]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

[President Johnson]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

They need to double their support in these eastern states, which isn't very likely. I guess it would cause a huge backlash on the streets.

[Astatine]

I wonder how Christine Lieberknecht (former CDU Premier, who got into office after a political thriller in 2009 - in the third vote and then voted out by red-red-green in 2014 in spite of winning the elections) must be feeling these days..

[Flyersfan232]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

They need to double their support in these eastern states, which isn't very likely. I guess it would cause a huge backlash on the streets.

But woulda afd government be accepted by the federal government?

[Aurelio21]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

They need to double their support in these eastern states, which isn't very likely. I guess it would cause a huge backlash on the streets.

But woulda afd government be accepted by the federal government?

First of all, this question is still irrelevant. The pre-requisite is a total wrecking of the contemporary party system. And Mike Mohring is doing everything to undo the consensus on which the CDU was built on after WW2: Voter coalition of the Weimar parties Zentrum( catholic big tent Party) the DNVP(conservatives and landowners) and classic liberal parts of the DVP joining for never needing help from a far right party again for keeping power.
The bigger question would be: Would a AfD majority government in a state accepted by the ministerial bureaucracy? See what happens at the White House, only on a bigger scale as it is Happening now and plagues the current Administration. A Party here in charge cannot simply fire everyone under a minister and the half of the level under it, the parliamentarian state secretaries. In the ministries, these positions are filled with party affiliates of all other parties.

Personally, I do not see the social competence needed at the AfD. The bureacracy simply would do DNV (Dienst nach Vorschrift) or passive resistance, including leaks of embarrassing comments. This alone would overthrow an AfD government within months.

Just look what happened to Mr Kemmerich: Yesterday, he defended his position at all costs. Today, after not being accepted by his ministerial staff and getting briefed by a 180-turn C Lindner, he proposes his own demise ASAP.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Interesting question.... maybe Left and CDU agree to support a non-partisan government of experts? There aren't really much options left.

Communists supporting a government of "expert" i.e. liberal clerks. now that's something

The LINKE in Thuringia is everything but communist. Not even on paper. In fact, it's probably even more social democratic than the SPD.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

could with in 20 years you see a cdu and fdp working with the afd?

If the AfD changes completely and abandons 90% of its (mostly far-right and racist) positions: Maybe. If not: No.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

Won't happen but would probably lead to major riots in the street and total chaos in Berlin.

If the AfD won the election fair and square, the federal government would have to accept the outcome. But there are other ways to render a state government incapable of governing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

What would happen? Personally, I would probably start considering if and how I could get myself a gun.... either that or considering emigration.

To elaborate: AfD politicians, AfD members, AfD supporters - particularly from the far-right "Der Flügel" around Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke - like to more or less openly phantasize about special tribunals for enemies of the people and traitors to Germany once they've taken power in this country. As a member of the Green Party I consider that a direct threat. Particularly, that my real name has already been publicized on at least one far-right website as I've once discovered.

Fortunately, the scenario of the AfD winning an "outright majority" in a Landtag is probably pretty low since it has to be assumed that their upper ceiling in Eastern states has already been reached and it's a well-known fact that the majority of non-AfD supporters tend to have a very strong dislike against that party across the board. At least I hope so. Until yesterday I wouldn't have thought to be yesterday's events possible either.

[Pick Up the Phone]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.

[urutzizu]

Germany-wide Poll:
(1) Resignation of Kemmerich: Correct (61%); Wrong (24%)
(2) ''         Breakdown by party afflilation
(3) Cordon Sanitaire against AFD: Correct (58%); CDU Voters (69%); FDP (25%!!)
(4) My opinion of this party has worsened (poll of all voters)
(5) Opinion of my own Party has worsened (by Voters of the Party)

ARD-DeutschlandTrend Extra vom 06. Februar 2020

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.

In the end, AKK had to back down yesterday. For now, the CDU opposes a snap election, alternatives should be explored first.

Mike Mohring also suggested this morning that his party wouldn't try to block Ramelow's election were he to run again in state parliament. That's probably a position that only exists until he's pressured by his state party to walk back on it.

Meanwhile, Forsa has released a Thuringia state election poll, conducted yesterday:

Left 37.0% (+6.0)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 12% (-9.7)
SPD 9% (+0.8 )
Greens 7% (+1.8 )
FDP 4% (-0.5%)
Other parties 7% (+1.5)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

[Astatine]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.

In the end, AKK had to back down yesterday. For now, the CDU opposes a snap election, alternatives should be explored first.

Mike Mohring also suggested this morning that his party wouldn't try to block Ramelow's election were he to run again in state parliament. That's probably a position that only exists until he's pressured by his state party to walk back on it.

Meanwhile, Forsa has released a Thuringia state election poll, conducted yesterday:

Left 37.0% (+6.0)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 12% (-9.7)
SPD 9% (+0.8 )
Greens 7% (+1.8 )
FDP 4% (-0.5%)
Other parties 7% (+1.5)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Even enough for Red-Red.