🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Federal economics minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) just gave a remarkable TV performance this evening in which - when pushed for an answer why his party refuses to cooperate with the Left so steadfastly - the CDU's position on the Left Party basically switched from "but they're left-wing extremists" to "well, we don't agree on a lot of issues, especially in the area of foreign policy".

I was not aware that the state government of Thuringia was able to have a foreign policy

Well, one could say that the CDU is largely opposed to any form cooperation with the Left Party "out of tradition". They've attacked the SPD for working with the PDS/Left and based election campaigns around it for nearly 30 years and it's hard to flip-flop on it just like that. But it's also true that they've probably waited far too long with starting to reconsider their position on the Left Party.

At the very least Bodo Ramelow could effectively be considered a social democrat, so there wouldn't really be an objective reason for the CDU not to join a government led by him. It's not like they would be totally incapable to hammer out a common platform for a coalition.

Yes, the Left traces its roots back to the GDR regime. Then again, so does (albeit to a lesser extrent) the East German CDU. And their former Chancellor Kurt Georg Kiesinger used to be a NSDAP member himself. It is indeed a bit nuts that they happen to draw the line so uncompromisingly particularly with regards to that question. They've made "being against the PDS/Left" part of their own identity and now they just can't easily change that identity.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another fresh Thuringia state election poll, this time from Infratest dimap. It essentially confirms the earlier numbers from Forsa (Left up, CDU way down, FDP out).

Left 39%
AfD 24%
CDU 13%
SPD 10%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%

Majority for Left-SPD.

[DL]

So what's the latest - will there be a new election in Thuringen or not?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So what's the latest - will there be a new election in Thuringen or not?

Left, SPD, and Greens will most likely attempt to get Bodo Ramelow elected again as minister-president sometime this month. As of this moment, it's still a bit unclear whether he'll get a majority on the first ballot with the help of some votes from the CDU. This option is still explored/negotiated.

Christian Lindner from the FDP made the proposal today to elect the president of Thuringia's consitutional court, Stefan Kaufmann (used to be in the CDU, nowadays non-partisan), as minister-president instead. Nobody cares, so this will probably go nowhere.

After Ramelow has returned to office there will probably a election sometime later this year.

[President Johnson]

Another fresh Thuringia state election poll, this time from Infratest dimap. It essentially confirms the earlier numbers from Forsa (Left up, CDU way down, FDP out).

Left 39%
AfD 24%
CDU 13%
SPD 10%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%

Majority for Left-SPD.

I think they might still bring in the Greens here to have a larger majority and due to the fact a coalition agreement already exists and is approved by all involved parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia state election poll from INSA

Left 40%
AfD 25%
CDU 14%
SPD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 4%

Majority for Red-Red-Green

[Middle-aged Europe]

To get a bit away from the events in Thuringia for a change, the Hamburg state election will occur exactly one week from now (February 23). Provided that a snap election occurs in Thuringia it will be one of only two state elections in Germany this year. For a while, Hamburg looked like a tight race for the first place between the current governing partners SPD and Greens, but in the recents weeks the SPD of incumbent mayor Peter Tschentscher managed to gradually expand their lead.

The three most recent polls looked like this:


Trend Research Hamburg (02/10)
SPD 33%
Greens 24%
CDU 14%
Left 10%
AfD 7%
FDP 7%

Infratest dimap (02/13)
SPD 38%
Greens 23%
CDU 14%
Left 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (02/14)
SPD 37%
Greens 25%
CDU 13%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 4.5%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

To get a bit away from the events in Thuringia for a change, the Hamburg state election will occur exactly one week from now (February 23). Provided that a snap election occurs in Thuringia it will be one of only two state elections in Germany this year. For a while, Hamburg looked like a tight race for the first place between the current governing partners SPD and Greens, but in the recents weeks the SPD of incumbent mayor Peter Tschentscher managed to gradually expand their lead.

The three most recent polls looked like this:


Trend Research Hamburg (02/10)
SPD 33%
Greens 24%
CDU 14%
Left 10%
AfD 7%
FDP 7%

Infratest dimap (02/13)
SPD 38%
Greens 23%
CDU 14%
Left 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (02/14)
SPD 37%
Greens 25%
CDU 13%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 4.5%

How has the Hamburg SPD managed to stay so relatively strong when the SPD is hemorrhaging across the country? I know Hamburg has been an SPD stronghold for a long, long time, but is there anything else? Is the Hamburg SPD just uniquely competent and popular? Is it their leader?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How has the Hamburg SPD managed to stay so relatively strong when the SPD is hemorrhaging across the country? I know Hamburg has been an SPD stronghold for a long, long time, but is there anything else? Is the Hamburg SPD just uniquely competent and popular? Is it their leader?

I haven't actually followed Hamburg politics that closely but if the numbers from those FGW and Infratest polls (37%-38%) were the real election results for the SPD they'd rank 18th among the 22 post-WWII Hamburg state elections and they would also constitute a drop from their 2011 and 2015 election results. Historically speaking, any result under 40% is "below average" for the SPD in Hamburg. In fact, if those 33% from the Trend Research poll were come to pass they would constitute the SPD's second-worst post-WWII result in the city-state. It's the CDU's numbers which are pretty bad compared to the era when Ole von Beust was still mayor there (the CDU won 47% in the 2004 election and 43% in 2008!), which proves that von Beust was indeed a bit of a fluke.

[Estrella]

How has the Hamburg SPD managed to stay so relatively strong when the SPD is hemorrhaging across the country? I know Hamburg has been an SPD stronghold for a long, long time, but is there anything else? Is the Hamburg SPD just uniquely competent and popular? Is it their leader?

And a related question - why have CDU fallen so hard? They won 43% of the vote as late as 2008. It doesn't really make sense that there would be many Schill -> CDU -> SPD voters, but that seems to be the case?

(edit: didn't notice Old Europe's reply while typing this)

[Middle-aged Europe]

How has the Hamburg SPD managed to stay so relatively strong when the SPD is hemorrhaging across the country? I know Hamburg has been an SPD stronghold for a long, long time, but is there anything else? Is the Hamburg SPD just uniquely competent and popular? Is it their leader?

And a related question - why have CDU fallen so hard? They won 43% of the vote as late as 2008. It doesn't really make sense that there would be many Schill -> CDU -> SPD voters, but that seems to be the case?

So my post above. The short answer is that Ole von Beust is in retirement, and as a result there was a massive swing from the CDU to SPD/Greens not only this election but already in 2011 and 2015. He was liberal as no other CDU politician. And a lot of SPD voters did indeed flock to Schill back in 2001.

[mileslunn]

With elections next year and some polls suggesting a Red-Red-Green coalition would have majority, if that happens is it likely to form or will you more likely see another Grand Coalition.  Black-Green grand coalition seems most likely although Jamaica coalition possible but probably too difficult as didn't work out last time.  On other hand if CDU chooses someone more right wing like Merz, could he attract a lot of AfD supporters over and do so without alienating moderates?

While this is on state not national, will what is happening in Thuringia have spillovers nationally or not?  Lots of times it seems like state elections have little correlation with federal and also I believe in state elections turnout tends to be much lower than in federal too so will this have any impact or as usual will it be irrelevant?

[Pick Up the Phone]

With elections next year and some polls suggesting a Red-Red-Green coalition would have majority, if that happens is it likely to form or will you more likely see another Grand Coalition.  Black-Green grand coalition seems most likely although Jamaica coalition possible but probably too difficult as didn't work out last time.  On other hand if CDU chooses someone more right wing like Merz, could he attract a lot of AfD supporters over and do so without alienating moderates?

While this is on state not national, will what is happening in Thuringia have spillovers nationally or not?  Lots of times it seems like state elections have little correlation with federal and also I believe in state elections turnout tends to be much lower than in federal too so will this have any impact or as usual will it be irrelevant?

That's a difficult question. First and foremost because there haven't been any indications of Red-Red-Green (or: Green-Red-Red) becoming a realistic possibility until recently. I assume that the leadership of the GRÜNEN prefers it in principle, but only if the LINKE can be tamed and gets rid of some of its more controversial positions (the party still wants to leave the NATO etc.). And only if there is a solid enough majority (meaning: 5/10+ seats).

Entering a coalition with both SPD and LINKE has several advantages for the GRÜNEN. The most obvious one is that they would be by far the strongest party in this alliance and thus able to pit their junior partners against each other. Without the CDU, there also would be better chances to implement progressive policies and change the overall direction of German politics. On the other hand, working with a weakened and desperate SPD and a potentially unpredictable LINKE for four years could be perceived as a gamble. Black-Green/Green-Black is certainly less of a risk. Jamaica seems to be a merely theoretical option at this point that won't happen as long as one of the other coalition models remains possible.

If I would have to rank them in order of likelihood:

1. Black-Green
2. Green-Black
3. Green-Red-Red (mainly because I have my doubts that they will be able to get a majority)
4. Jamaica
5. FDP with AfD support

Concerning the second question, I really doubt that there will be any lasting effects. Sure, the optics are quite bad for both CDU and FDP at the moment - but since they apologized for what happened in Thuringia and decided to blame their state parties, it probably won't matter too much.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another plot twist in the Thuringia drama:

Bodo Ramelow has made a proposal to CDU, SPD and Greens that his predecessor, former minister-president Christine Lieberknecht (CDU, 2009-2014), should serve as interim head of government until a new election can be held.

[Astatine]

I wonder how Christine Lieberknecht (former CDU Premier, who got into office after a political thriller in 2009 - in the third vote and then voted out by red-red-green in 2014 in spite of winning the elections) must be feeling these days..

This post did not age well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the last couple of meters, the Hamburgian SPD has been started to get involved in the CumEx scandal. They had received donations from a bank who is/was under investigation for tax fraud/dividend stripping. So they may not reach 37% on sunday after all. I'd still say they'll come in first though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now the great bargaining has started in Thuringia. The CDU has responded by saying that Lieberknecht is acceptable to them as MP (no sh**t), but not quite in such a provisional capacity Ramelow had suggested. She should serve longer than the minimum 70 days in which a snap election could be held constitutionally.

[President Johnson]

The CDU clearly wants to buy time by rejecting Remelow's rational offer to have Lieberknecht as caretaker for 70 days to a new election. They know, they will lose another ten points while Remow is at 40% now. I predict (and hope) the CDU's arrogance fires back.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist:

Christine Lieberknecht (CDU) has withdrawn her offer to temporarily take over as minister-president of Thuringia, citing her own party's reluctance to accept Bodo Ramelow's proposal on the length and composition of her interim government as the main reason. Instead she has urged the CDU to support a Left Party-led government under Ramelow now.

The Thuringian CDU doesn't really give the appearance of high competence. They're polling at 14% after a steep drop from a 22% election result, the Left is polling at 40%, the leader of the Left in Thuringia proposes to temporarily install a CDU minister-president and what they do is to make additional demands which leads to them quickly overplaying their hand. No wonder that they're polling at 14%.

[Former President tack50]

Imagine an scenario where all the minor parties drop out and only Linke, AfD and CDU make it into parliament. What happens next? (also assuming Linke does not get a majority of its own)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Imagine an scenario where all the minor parties drop out and only Linke, AfD and CDU make it into parliament. What happens next? (also assuming Linke does not get a majority of its own)

This wouldn't be that much different from the situation we have now. It would only change if the CDU came in stronger than the Left which at the moment isn't a likely scenario. After today's events I wouldn't be surprised to see the CDU polled below 10%. So maybe the CDU's willingness to support a Left minority government would have increased.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Imagine an scenario where all the minor parties drop out and only Linke, AfD and CDU make it into parliament. What happens next? (also assuming Linke does not get a majority of its own)

If it looks like a party is going to fall below the threshold, it's not uncommon for it to get lent quite a lot of votes by tactical voters. See for example the 2017 federal election, where the FDP ended up way above where most polling from a few weeks before had put it and not down to any efforts on their part.

I'd argue the most dangerous spot for a party to be polling in is 6-7%, whereas if it's getting 4-5% there's a very high chance it will get in.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In light of today's events the date of Mike Mohring's resignation as leader of the CDU state parliament caucus has just been pushed up from late May to early March. They want to get rid of him fast.

[republicanbayer]

Imagine an scenario where all the minor parties drop out and only Linke, AfD and CDU make it into parliament. What happens next? (also assuming Linke does not get a majority of its own)

If it looks like a party is going to fall below the threshold, it's not uncommon for it to get lent quite a lot of votes by tactical voters. See for example the 2017 federal election, where the FDP ended up way above where most polling from a few weeks before had put it and not down to any efforts on their part.

I'd argue the most dangerous spot for a party to be polling in is 6-7%, whereas if it's getting 4-5% there's a very high chance it will get in.

No, the FDP ended up with such a good result in 2017 because of a bump from the Nordrhein-Westfalen and Schleswig-Holstein state elections thanks to great campaigns from Lindner and Kubicki. They presented themselves as a modern party and offered a reasonable, non-extremist, alternative to Merkel's leftist policies.
In 2013 on the other hand, they failed to get above 5% in the Bavarian state election one week before the federal election. They begged for votes from the CDU all week long, because voters lost whatever respect they had left for them.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'd argue the most dangerous spot for a party to be polling in is 6-7%, whereas if it's getting 4-5% there's a very high chance it will get in.

To a degree tactical voting exists in all electoral systems, not just FPTP