🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[rob in cal]

  Not sure I agree with the Texas Bayern comparisons in that in Bavaria the combined vote for left wing parties didn't really go up, just shifted among the three, whereas in Texas we saw an overall % growth in support for the Dems.

[rob in cal]

  SPD drifting down toward the 5% danger zone. Also FDP in striking distance of overtaking SPD in Saxony.

[rob in cal]

Brandenburg could see lots of center right votes wasted with fdp and fw maybe missing threshold. Is it fair to consider them center right?

[rob in cal]

Getting tired of all these center to center right votes being flushed down the toilet by missing the threshold like in saxony. Looks like it may happen again in Thurigia with fdp leading the way.

[rob in cal]

  Was in Thuringia last week, and saw a lot of CDU and Green and Linke posters, no AFD posters, and also lots from some fringe leftist marxist revolutionary party. Loved Erfurt by the way.

[rob in cal]

He's it was the mlp d party with the posters everywhere.

[rob in cal]

  I often wonder what would have happened to the CDU had Merkel been like the Cameron/May government in the UK and basically accepted very few of the 2015 refugees/migrants.  How many voters would have left the CDU over that? And how many current AFD voters would still be with the CDU/CSU?

[rob in cal]

 This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

[rob in cal]

  I wonder if the Thuringia CDU is afraid that if they voted for Ramelow they would be setting themselves up for more losses to the AFD in the next election.

[rob in cal]

  Would love to see a poll of FDP and CDU voters in Thuringia about how they feel about whats going on.

[rob in cal]

  If the AFD in Thuringia was led by someone other than Hocke, without his political baggage, would there be as much of a controversy, or would cooperation with any state AFD party, regardless of where in Germany, be a political outrage.?

[rob in cal]

  So what is exactly accomplished if new elections yield roughly the same political balance?  Why not accept Kemmerichs resignation and keep trying for a new approach now instead of going for new elections?

[rob in cal]

  Question about the AFD, is it any specific party  policy agenda that they have that gets them labeled as extremists, or just the polical leadership and their more outlandish comments?

[rob in cal]

 So whats the deal the German runoff rules?  Can all 1st round candidates participate? Whats the point of having a runoff if there are still a whole bunch moving on to the 2nd round anyway?

[rob in cal]

Is this close to a record for total vote % going to parties that missed the threshold? Pretty funny that two of the three national governing parties don't get seats.

[rob in cal]

Isn't it kind of awkward for there not to be a traffic light coalition in NRW when there is one on the federal level, and there is a comfortable majority for it in NRW? Kind of implying that traffic light isn't a normal expected situation and that the federal one is just a special circumstance?

[rob in cal]

Ironically Musk has given in to his inner billionaire and has also called for a big increase in legal immigration into the US, probably disappointing many on the right who might have thought he was a restrictionist.

[rob in cal]

If FDP falls out of both Landtags will that create any complications or pressure on federal FDP leadership?

[rob in cal]

Does a CDU which goes back to Kohl era immigration stance or toward that direction end up absorbing most of AFD voters? Probably a lot but would lose some voters as well who wouldn’t like such a move.

[rob in cal]

Ecological Democrats surpass Die linke in Bavaria and for every 4 SPD voters there’s about one ODP voter.

[rob in cal]

FDP relegated to the others pile in the  Saxony poll.