🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Velasco]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

[Velasco]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

Not necessarily. Maybe a second try at a Left-SPD-Greens (or CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP) minority government?

Considering that Bodo Ramelow is by far the most popular politician in Thuringia and given the likelihood of another election this year and the FDP's meager election result in October 2019 it's also a fair question whether the FDP just managed to self-terminate itself from the parliament?

It's complete chaos. The AfD just helped elect a minister-president who has the smallest possible parliamentary support anyone can have.

The problem is that both FDP and Grünen are dangerously close to the 5% hurdle. If Liberals fail and Greens hold, it'd be fantastic; if both fail, it'll be a disastrous outcome. On the other hand, I get the impression that both CDU and FDP are trapped in an impossible dilemma. The parties of the "democratic right" reject alliances with the "populist right", but also reject to tolerate a minority government led by Ramelow (minority governments are not usual in Germany, right?). I guess it's not only a matter of anticommunism; christian democrats and liberals must be afraid of further AfD gains at their expense... Any recent poll?

Just looking at the constituency map, with the rural areas colored black and light blue while the urban areas are purple. Weimar II is for Die Linke and the Weimarer Land districts are for the CDU (it could be worse).

[Velasco]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

Wouldn’t a Kurz be him going into coalition with the afd?

No.

Kurz, like Bodo, was ousted as Chancellor/Governor.

Kurz made a stunning comeback as Chancellor, with an even better election result than before.

Bodo could achieve the same in snap elections, with a different party landscape because of the scandalous events ...

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't Kurz the guy who broke the cordon sanitaire in Austria?  

Have you noticed the policy known as "cordon sanitaire" is at the core of this political crisis?

#austriaposting

[Velasco]

It was actually Wolfgang Schüssel (also of the ÖVP) who broke the cordon sanitaire around the FPÖ in 2000 - causing various EU governments to place half-hearted sanctions on Austria, which were abandoned once it became clear that Schüssel wasn’t about to buckle. As far as I’m aware Kurz’ initial coalition with the FPÖ wasn’t particular controversial as these things go.

Good. Schlüssel was the first guy who broke the cordon sanitaire. Forgot about him, thank you.

Anyway I guess it's not difficult to get the point. Given that Germany is a country where the policy of cordon sanitaire is still in force, that shoehorn comparison between the Thuringian premier and the Austrian guy seems a bit out of context. I'd say the fact that the Kurz-Strache government didn't raise much controversy reinforces my point of view: look at the political storm triggered in the neighbouring country.

[Velasco]

I hope SPD and Greens reject the proposition. Ramelow can't be the scapegoat for the CDU blunders

[Velasco]

Wonderful, but something is broken since the last time around. There is something in the air that may be worse than coronavirus

[Velasco]

I'm a member of a dead party Why can't we have something like En Marche?

If anything I'd argue the CDU is closer to that than the SPD?

Certainly not convinced that Germany "needs" a new centre-right neoliberal party tbh.

If you want to have something like En Marche, you'll have to find someone like Emmanuel Macron. Above everything, the French thing is a personality cult project. Do you have anyone in Germany who can play that role? Do you have a Bonapartist tradition?

I highly doubt it's feasible to replace the SPD with a social-liberal experiment resembling En Marche without Macron. Among other things, because the Greens are already appealing to an urban audience. On the other hand, the Greens have serious limitations among certain demographic groups and this possibly prevents they are going to replace the SPD some day. So I'd argue Germany needs a 'red-green' alliance vetween the traditional and the environmentalist left. The growth of the Greens needs to be complemented by the resilience of the traditional left, otherwise there's no alternative to the CDU/CSU