🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

The regional Thüringer Allgemeine newspaper reports, that the Thuringian CDU has appointed a commission which is supposed to start talks with Left, SPD, Greens and FDP with the goal of exploring another Ramelow run where the CDU would now abstain.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AKK has just announced that the CDU expects from SPD and Greens to make a proposition for a candidate for the office of minister-president who is capable of winning a majority in the state parliament of Thuringia. A candidate who wouldn't be Bodo Ramelow.

She also specifically stressed in her press conference that this is a unanimous decision of the CDU presidium and that Mike Mohring is a member of that presidium (probably because the leading bodies of the federal and Thuringian CDU tend to make unanimous decision which contradict each other despite the fact that Mohring is a member of both).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Thuringian CDU just released a statement saying that:

- Mike Mohring steps down in May

- "we won't block initiatives with the intention of forming a government", "Thomas Kemmerich can pave the way to the formation of a government by calling for a vote of confidence", "we won't actively vote for a Left Party candidate for minister-president", "this effectively means that we would abstain in such an election", "basis for the cooperation with such a government is our respective resolution from January 15"

In essence this means that the Thuringian CDU decided to pretend that this week's events never happened: Ramelow heads a minority cabinet, the CDU cooperates with it on a case-by-case basis.

I guess now its up to Kemmerich to withdraw the motion for a snap election and call a vote of confidence instead.

[Velasco]

I hope SPD and Greens reject the proposition. Ramelow can't be the scapegoat for the CDU blunders

[Middle-aged Europe]

I hope SPD and Greens reject the proposition. Ramelow can't be the scapegoat for the CDU blunders

They've already turned AKK down. Reportedly, first unofficial talks between Left, SPD, Greens, and CDU on how to proceed with regards to a return of Ramelow to office have taken place in Thuringia today.

Don't know whether the Thuringian CDU was scared sh**tless by that poll which showed them at 12% but they seem eager now to close this matter quickly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like the Left Party in Thuringia is using the opportunity to squeeze the CDU dry. Which amounts to the following positon: No more of that third ballot plurality bullsh**t. Either it is ensured beforehand that Ramelow is getting a majority on the first ballot or they push for a snap election.

On Wednesday, they apparently had two members of parliament from the CDU already voting for them. So, this means they need to get two more CDU guys on their side for a majority. To that effect they're saying that they're individually approaching selected CDU members now.


Meanwhile, there's a bit of back and forth on the specific date of Kemmerich's resignation. So far, Kemmerich has only announced his resignation without setting a date. This let to Left, SPD, and Greens setting him an ultimatum until this sunday otherwise a vote of no confidence could follow. Since Kemmerich never appointed a cabinet he's currently the executive branch's only constitutional officer and he's arguing that you still may need a full consitutional officer to fulfill some functions.

While he would continue to serve as acting minister-president even after tendering his resignation, an acting minister-president can't do some things a full minister-president. Specifically, he apparently couldn't call for a vote of no confidence as an acting minister-president which would limit the constitutional options as to how his succession would come to be.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like the Left Party in Thuringia is using the opportunity to squeeze the CDU dry. Which amounts to the following positon: No more of that third ballot plurality bullsh**t. Either it is ensured beforehand that Ramelow is getting a majority on the first ballot or they push for a snap election.

^^

Contradicting this earlier statement by his party chairwoman, Ramelow now indicated that he wants to run and return to his previous office as soon as possible, arguing that Thuringia has effectively no government at the moment, only Kemmerich who has no power, no cabinet and no parliamentary support.** He did seem to leave the possibility open to call for a parliamentary election after he's minister-president again.


(** = For instance, the chairmanship of the Interior Ministers' Conference has been temporarily taken over by the Schleswig-Holstein now. Although Thuringia is supposed to be the chair for the current year, the state has currently no interior minister.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's take a deep breath and look back on this week's event. What did I learn from it?


1) Giving the appearance of cooperating with or relying on the AfD as a means to get into power creates extreme backlash. Backlash so extreme that even the people involved like Thomas Kemmerich and Mike Mohring were completely surprised and overwhelmed by it this week. Suddenly, leading figures from you own f**king party are publicly demanding your resignation. You've got the Central Council of Jews, the usually rather conservative Springer Media conglomerate (including the BILD Zeitung which I would in fact describe as right-wing populist too) and the usually rather immigration-critical Markus Söder from Bavaria up your ass. Your political career is essentially dead. And the sh**t just keeps on piling up.

Maybe it will now be a long time until someone will try anything remotely similar again and perhaps not before the AfD had undergone some fundamental changes itself. Even people who would theoretically be eager to cooperate with the AfD may now consider it simply not worth the trouble.


2) For a party which usually claims to be an alternative to and protest party against the corrupt and detached mainstream elites the AfD's modus operandi is characterized by a hefty amount of ruthlessness and cynicism. A couple of pages back in this very same thread I had compared them to Kevin Spacey's character from House of Cards and I still think this is a fair comparison. They put a guy as their candidate despite the fact they have never had the intention to ultimately vote for him. Instead he's mere tool to mask their actual intentions and that is to trigger someone else to run for office and suddenly vote for that someone without any public notice to other parties, let alone their own or anyone elses voters. The goal itself is not really a constructive one, but ultimately destructive to the system. Thomas Kemmerich is the leader of the smallest caucus in parliament, he has no clue who to appoint to his cabinet, after his election the government consists entirely of him alone with a lot of uncertainty who (if anyone) would eventually join his government (as it turned out nobody did). It cows chaos and division and the AfD thrives on chaos and division.

And to this minute it's still unclear whether their original candidate, their aforementioned tool, was even in on the plan. Originally, Christoph Kindervater wasn't even supposed to be present in Erfurt the day of the minister-presidential election. And then he suddenly was, he didn't participate in the AfD caucuses' internal deliberations before and between the ballots, something he himself - when asked it about by the media - commented on with "well, I'm only a guest here". And after everything was over and the actual plan had become apparent to anyone he was the first one to suddenly resign his position as mayor of his village. So, it's possible that they simply used him and after they were done using him they discarded him. When asked by Maybrit Illner yesterday whether Christoph Kindervater is unhappy now, Alexander Gauland from the AfD dodged the question.


3) Some leading figures of our political elite are frightingly inept and weak. I'm particularly referring to people like Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer or Christian Lindner who apparently command not a tiny bit of respect among their own people when push comes to shove. Before the sh**t ultimately hit the fan their recommendations to their respective state chapters in Thuringia not. to. do. this. are casually ignored (athough, as it turns out, they better should have). And afterwards they were stumbling and mumbling around for hours and days, desperately trying to find solutions that everybody in their party - at least for the first five minutes after the respective resolution was passed - could live with. After those minutes anything was forfeit anyway. This time this applied to CDU & FDP but I wouldn't necessarily restrict it to them as representatives of centre-right parties. When I think of a scenario where Saskia Esken has to deal with a severe political crisis I'm getting the shivers.


4) As I (and others) had already observed early into this crisis, there's a East-West rupture within the CDU and the FDP with regards how to approach the AfD. In former East Germany in particular, the judgment weighs in favour of cooperating with them, but they are "forbidden" to do it by their national headquarters and the West German majorities in their parties, both them being staunchley against. The massive backlash I had described under 1) may actually have defused this problem for now, since many politicians in the East will probably say to themselves now "well, this is not important enough to commit political suicide over it". But it's not entirely and perhaps only temporarily gone. As for how far-reaching and long-lasting this effect actually this... we're simply gonna have to see.

(And another brief but important point I'd like to add: It's also important to keep in mind that this conflict applies to Western and Eastern state chapters as institutions, not necessarily to the specific individuals involved. For instance, Thomas Kemmerich and Björn Höcke both grew up in West Germany, as did Bodo Ramelow. Those are West Germans who moved to eastern Germany and launched a political career there. This is to warn against overgeneralizations like: every West German hates the AfD, while every East German sees no problem whatsoever with them.)


5) Let's continue with criticizing left-wingers (well, them also). After his election, Thomas Kemmerich apparently received a number of death threats. Personally, my opinion of him is pretty low. But obviously death threats are crossing a line irrespective of who he is and what he did. Of course - and contrary to my usual habits I'm say it unironically - "both sides do it". Out of personal experience, I know that left-wingers also tend to receive a lot of death threats by, among other things, AfD supporters. The conclusion is that there's a certain lack of civility and a lack of consensus that some things simply shouldn't happen. I realize that it might be an unrealistic expectation that every single person would honor that rule when even I think that Björn Höcke is a repulsive right-wing extremist. But describing someone as a repulsive right-wing extremist is still something than writing someone that you're going to put a bullet in his skull the next day. So, we should all at least try.

[President Johnson]

If I was Ramelow, I'd be going for a snap election. Maybe he at first rejected the idea because he thinks it may be a risk to demand a new call to the polls too early, but he could actually win back a working majority for his coalition. Even if he's ultimately successful with forming the minority cabinet, I don't see it lasting for a full five year term. CDU is obviously against a snap election since their numbers are in the tank.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Let's take a deep breath and look back on this week's event. What did I learn from it?

(...)

Good summary with which I can basically agree. I would add that this is a major strategic defeat for the AfD and perhaps the most important one so far. The massive backlash from all(!) sides has turned the party so toxic that no career conscious CDU/FDP politician will even greet one of his AfD colleagues in the hallway anymore. It might take years, if not decades, to change this again.

It was also amazing to see how powerful Merkel still is. Widely considered a lame duck, it was her verdict ("inexcusable") that ultimately sealed Kemmerich's fate and forced Lindner to act. Her influence (and moral authority) shouldn't be underestimated.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If I was Ramelow, I'd be going for a snap election. Maybe he at first rejected the idea because he thinks it may be a risk to demand a new call to the polls too early, but he could actually win back a working majority for his coalition. Even if he's ultimately successful with forming the minority cabinet, I don't see it lasting for a full five year term. CDU is obviously against a snap election since their numbers are in the tank.

snap election with such a poll for a centrist like you?



Here is hoping for a Die Linke - Die Grunen government, without SPD, FDP, CDU and AfD but as long AfD and FDP are not in, i'm happy. CDU should have taken responsability and governed with the far-left. Here's hope Die Linke crack 40% in next election and Grunen more than 5% while FDP continues to fall. AfD 25% and CDU + SPD both like 20%

[Flyersfan232]

If I was Ramelow, I'd be going for a snap election. Maybe he at first rejected the idea because he thinks it may be a risk to demand a new call to the polls too early, but he could actually win back a working majority for his coalition. Even if he's ultimately successful with forming the minority cabinet, I don't see it lasting for a full five year term. CDU is obviously against a snap election since their numbers are in the tank.

snap election with such a poll for a centrist like you?



Here is hoping for a Die Linke - Die Grunen government, without SPD, FDP, CDU and AfD but as long AfD and FDP are not in, i'm happy. CDU should have taken responsability and governed with the far-left. Here's hope Die Linke crack 40% in next election and Grunen more than 5% while FDP continues to fall. AfD 25% and CDU + SPD both like 20%

If the left can governed with the far left then the right should governor with the afd

[Flyersfan232]

Let's take a deep breath and look back on this week's event. What did I learn from it?


1) Giving the appearance of cooperating with or relying on the AfD as a means to get into power creates extreme backlash. Backlash so extreme that even the people involved like Thomas Kemmerich and Mike Mohring were completely surprised and overwhelmed by it this week. Suddenly, leading figures from you own f**king party are publicly demanding your resignation. You've got the Central Council of Jews, the usually rather conservative Springer Media conglomerate (including the BILD Zeitung which I would in fact describe as right-wing populist too) and the usually rather immigration-critical Markus Söder from Bavaria up your ass. Your political career is essentially dead. And the sh**t just keeps on piling up.

Maybe it will now be a long time until someone will try anything remotely similar again and perhaps not before the AfD had undergone some fundamental changes itself. Even people who would theoretically be eager to cooperate with the AfD may now consider it simply not worth the trouble.


2) For a party which usually claims to be an alternative to and protest party against the corrupt and detached mainstream elites the AfD's modus operandi is characterized by a hefty amount of ruthlessness and cynicism. A couple of pages back in this very same thread I had compared them to Kevin Spacey's character from House of Cards and I still think this is a fair comparison. They put a guy as their candidate despite the fact they have never had the intention to ultimately vote for him. Instead he's mere tool to mask their actual intentions and that is to trigger someone else to run for office and suddenly vote for that someone without any public notice to other parties, let alone their own or anyone elses voters. The goal itself is not really a constructive one, but ultimately destructive to the system. Thomas Kemmerich is the leader of the smallest caucus in parliament, he has no clue who to appoint to his cabinet, after his election the government consists entirely of him alone with a lot of uncertainty who (if anyone) would eventually join his government (as it turned out nobody did). It cows chaos and division and the AfD thrives on chaos and division.

And to this minute it's still unclear whether their original candidate, their aforementioned tool, was even in on the plan. Originally, Christoph Kindervater wasn't even supposed to be present in Erfurt the day of the minister-presidential election. And then he suddenly was, he didn't participate in the AfD caucuses' internal deliberations before and between the ballots, something he himself - when asked it about by the media - commented on with "well, I'm only a guest here". And after everything was over and the actual plan had become apparent to anyone he was the first one to suddenly resign his position as mayor of his village. So, it's possible that they simply used him and after they were done using him they discarded him. When asked by Maybrit Illner yesterday whether Christoph Kindervater is unhappy now, Alexander Gauland from the AfD dodged the question.


3) Some leading figures of our political elite are frightingly inept and weak. I'm particularly referring to people like Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer or Christian Lindner who apparently command not a tiny bit of respect among their own people when push comes to shove. Before the sh**t ultimately hit the fan their recommendations to their respective state chapters in Thuringia not. to. do. this. are casually ignored (athough, as it turns out, they better should have). And afterwards they were stumbling and mumbling around for hours and days, desperately trying to find solutions that everybody in their party - at least for the first five minutes after the respective resolution was passed - could live with. After those minutes anything was forfeit anyway. This time this applied to CDU & FDP but I wouldn't necessarily restrict it to them as representatives of centre-right parties. When I think of a scenario where Saskia Esken has to deal with a severe political crisis I'm getting the shivers.


4) As I (and others) had already observed early into this crisis, there's a East-West rupture within the CDU and the FDP with regards how to approach the AfD. In former East Germany in particular, the judgment weighs in favour of cooperating with them, but they are "forbidden" to do it by their national headquarters and the West German majorities in their parties, both them being staunchley against. The massive backlash I had described under 1) may actually have defused this problem for now, since many politicians in the East will probably say to themselves now "well, this is not important enough to commit political suicide over it". But it's not entirely and perhaps only temporarily gone. As for how far-reaching and long-lasting this effect actually this... we're simply gonna have to see.

(And another brief but important point I'd like to add: It's also important to keep in mind that this conflict applies to Western and Eastern state chapters as institutions, not necessarily to the specific individuals involved. For instance, Thomas Kemmerich and Björn Höcke both grew up in West Germany, as did Bodo Ramelow. Those are West Germans who moved to eastern Germany and launched a political career there. This is to warn against overgeneralizations like: every West German hates the AfD, while every East German sees no problem whatsoever with them.)


5) Let's continue with criticizing left-wingers (well, them also). After his election, Thomas Kemmerich apparently received a number of death threats. Personally, my opinion of him is pretty low. But obviously death threats are crossing a line irrespective of who he is and what he did. Of course - and contrary to my usual habits I'm say it unironically - "both sides do it". Out of personal experience, I know that left-wingers also tend to receive a lot of death threats by, among other things, AfD supporters. The conclusion is that there's a certain lack of civility and a lack of consensus that some things simply shouldn't happen. I realize that it might be an unrealistic expectation that every single person would honor that rule when even I think that Björn Höcke is a repulsive right-wing extremist. But describing someone as a repulsive right-wing extremist is still something than writing someone that you're going to put a bullet in his skull the next day. So, we should all at least try.

Ironic the west didn’t want to work with the moderate afd

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Lol wrong image on clipboard, will edit my post wait.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If I was Ramelow, I'd be going for a snap election. Maybe he at first rejected the idea because he thinks it may be a risk to demand a new call to the polls too early, but he could actually win back a working majority for his coalition. Even if he's ultimately successful with forming the minority cabinet, I don't see it lasting for a full five year term. CDU is obviously against a snap election since their numbers are in the tank.

snap election with such a poll for a centrist like you?



Here is hoping for a Die Linke - Die Grunen government, without SPD, FDP, CDU and AfD but as long AfD and FDP are not in, i'm happy. CDU should have taken responsability and governed with the far-left. Here's hope Die Linke crack 40% in next election and Grunen more than 5% while FDP continues to fall. AfD 25% and CDU + SPD both like 20%

If the left can governed with the far left then the right should governor with the afd

Die Linke did win the elections. Why on Earth would a party with 5% be able to offer the regional chancellor as a compromise (electoral logic?). It even was close or they were in extra parliamentary opposition. And AfD is far worse than Die Linke, although Die Linke has factions that should be controlled by the government. Would still vote for Die Linke though, just like i support consequently left-wing parties everywhere in Europe. Although Die Grunen are a close second option, but in such a state, i would be more inclined to vote Die Linke, while in western states i would rather back the greens in regional elections, as well as federally as they have a shot of governing with CDU.

[DL]

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Federal economics minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) just gave a remarkable TV performance this evening in which - when pushed for an answer why his party refuses to cooperate with the Left so steadfastly - the CDU's position on the Left Party basically switched from "but they're left-wing extremists" to "well, we don't agree on a lot of issues, especially in the area of foreign policy".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ironic the west didn’t want to work with the moderate afd

It's unclear and it doesn't really come across what you're trying to say here.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Not at all. As written earlier, the LINKE in the Eastern states is actually quite pragmatic and moderate; the true radicals are almost all in the West (+Berlin). Basically, Ramelow governed like a left-leaning social democrat and the fact that he had to consider the wishes of not only one but two coalition partners further moderated his position on many issues. The same was true for the LINKE in Brandenburg (which is now governed by SPD-CDU).

On the federal level, I would still classify the LINKE as far-left (but as less "far" than 5 or 10 years ago - also because of the fact that Sahra Wagenknecht has been ousted).

[Pick Up the Phone]

Ironic the west didn’t want to work with the moderate afd

It's unclear and it doesn't really come across what you're trying to say here.

I also don't get the part about "the moderate AfD". There is no moderate AfD. The only meaningful difference here is between radicals and extremists.

[rob in cal]

  Question about the AFD, is it any specific party  policy agenda that they have that gets them labeled as extremists, or just the polical leadership and their more outlandish comments?

[DL]

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Federal economics minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) just gave a remarkable TV performance this evening in which - when pushed for an answer why his party refuses to cooperate with the Left so steadfastly - the CDU's position on the Left Party basically switched from "but they're left-wing extremists" to "well, we don't agree on a lot of issues, especially in the area of foreign policy".

I was not aware that the state government of Thuringia was able to have a foreign policy

[Middle-aged Europe]

  Question about the AFD, is it any specific party  policy agenda that they have that gets them labeled as extremists, or just the polical leadership and their more outlandish comments?

The AfD's specific platform is generally considered to be a bit bare-bones, partially because the AfD tends not to agree with itself on a whole lot of issues, particularly when it comes to economic and welfare policies. For the most part the AfD consists of sentiment and resentment.

[urutzizu]

 Question about the AFD, is it any specific party  policy agenda that they have that gets them labeled as extremists, or just the polical leadership and their more outlandish comments?

Depends on how one defines extreme of course, but their policy agenda is basically along the same lines of SD, FPÖ, DPP, FvD (less extreme than PVV), Finns, and the latter parties are not subject to a cordon sanitaire.
The AFD is a bit more economically liberal (though as Old Europe said, very vague) and socially conservative on issues like Homosexuality and Abortion than the Northern/Nordic RWPP, and more aligned with FN in the latter terms. They are not quite as religiously conservative as Salvini, PiS or Vox.
The main difference is the party leadership, especially the fact that they tolerate open antisemites like Höcke in key positions (perhaps the word "tolerate" is rather wrong, considering how powerful he is within the AFD nowadays) in order to retain support of their base. FvD/DPP and generally the Northern European/Nordic right do not have a antisemitism problem to the same extent that the AFD has. And unlike Islamophobia, Antisemitism is an absolute no-go for mainstream conservatives in Germany, including Welt/Bild.
Otherwise, the fact that Germany has a particularly painful history regarding far-right Politics (and their enabling by the mainstream right) and the fact that the AFD seems to have very little control over party members that go completely off the rails and their cooperation with the Identitary Movement is the reason why the Germany is likely the last Country in Europe where the cordon sanitaire falls (if ever).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The main difference is the party leadership, especially the fact that they tolerate open antisemites like Höcke in key positions (perhaps the word "tolerate" is rather wrong, considering how powerful he is within the AFD nowadays) in order to retain support of their base.

That's also essentially the public image the AfD has among non-supporters of that party. That is that the AfD generally consists of two kinds of people: Right-wing extremists and people who have sold their souls to tolerate and enable right-wing extremists.

Case in point: Alice Weidel in the "Anne Will" talkshow yestderday. For the most of the time she sits ther with her mouth shut, looking annoyed. It's only when the political views of people like Björn Höcke are brought up she comes to life and switches into "extreme outrage" mode. You're implying Höcke's statement "Christianity and Judaism are representing an antagonism. Therefore I have no use for the term Judeo-Christian Occident" is antisemitic? HOW DARE YOU! UNBELIEVABLE! DEFAMATION!

If Höcke would say "Heil Hitler" on live TV she'd claim that he either misspoke or meant it in an "ironic" way. It's agonizing. And compared to her colleague Alexander Gauland, who was in similarly-themed talk show on Thursday and tried to show similar outrage, Weidel is not even a good actress. I was under the impression that she was merely going through the motions and  phoned it in.