The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Atlas Force]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

[IceSpear]

If the WFP wants to keep their ballot line and Nixon wants off, maybe they should look at other candidates to replace her. I suspect that Julia Salazar will be free after tonight.

[Sumner 1868]

One point is that Imperial went heavily yes on 73, and no on 75/76.  Hispanics matter here big time, and the big winners will be those who know how to win them over.

This state won't be majority pro-choice for long.

[Politician]

I’m surprised by Calley’s performance here, stronger than I expected. It’s gettin very close to the primary to be down 15 though.

I’m doubly surprised at how terrible a campaign Whitmer has run. She’s a totally uninspiring figure and public speaker from what I hear (this is completely anecdotal and may or may not reflect reality though - I’ve never personally heard her speak or campaign). I honestly am starting to doubt that she would even be the strongest candidate - idk if having two white liberal women who appeal to exactly the same constituencies in Ann Arvor and Oakland is a great idea. With Schuette likely to do well out state and John James proving surprisingly enigmatic, there has to be concerns about turning out Detroit in both the Governor and even the Senate race at this point.

It would be better if Dems had a strong minority candidate for governor to balance Stabenaw’s suburban Detroit appeal. Idk if Thanedar is really the best candidate to do that though - why do people here not like him? Is he too far left, or does he have serious controversies I’m not aware of?

Honestly think Michigan Governor is tilt R right now, with this uncertainty in the Dem primary. Could easily end up strong the other way of course, but the lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates is pretty startling (and that even includes Stabenaw in the senate race tbh, though I expect her to outperform the gubernatorial candidate by at least 5 due to a stronger performance in the UP and Grand Rapids - I just don’t think she’s in a position to drag a weak governor candidate across the finish line).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I feel Mourdock and Akin should be on here instead.

For some reason, I think Akin could still pull this off. I think this is going to be like gay marriage polls - people don't really want to say over the phone that they're voting for Akin because of his comments, but when they get into the polling place, they go ahead and vote for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

I've got a good feeling about Texas A&M against Alabama...either that or I've completely lost my marbles, one or the other.

For the record, Alabama crushed Texas A&M this afternoon, and I don't think the Crimson Tide fans on the forum are going to let me forget it.

[Badger]

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!

Um, do you have any recollection of how unfavorable the polls were for Toomey most of the race, or how very narrowly he won?

His re-election was arguably the second biggest upset/comeback of 2016 only behind Trump winning.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!

Um, do you have any recollection of how unfavorable the polls were for Toomey most of the race, or how very narrowly he won?

His re-election was arguably the second biggest upset/comeback of 2016 only behind Trump winning.

The RCP average was McGinty +2, that is 0 justification to say that someone is finished, that is literally well within moe.

Granted it was plus 5 by the time of the post, but still, that is ridiculous.

Only delusional and thick Atlasian overconfidence would say a republican is finished when they are only five points down a few days from the election. Sure, the dem could win, and is favored, I had McGinty winning too, but saying Toomey was finished is an utter moronic joke.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was unable to watch it on Election night because the TVs were muted at the party. I just watched it and all I have to say is that what you did to this man and his family will never be forgotten. I am not going to go insane on anyone; I just wanted to voice my serious disgust for what has happened to them. To put it nicely, Republicans will see to it that Bob Casey never enjoys another electoral victory for himself in a General election. This will never be forgotten.

LUL, moron, sad!

[Politician]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings. It's happening, and the map will be invalidated. The best thing for the Dems to do now is to take the sore losering and turn it into success in the ballot this fall.

[IceSpear]

I was unable to watch it on Election night because the TVs were muted at the party. I just watched it and all I have to say is that what you did to this man and his family will never be forgotten. I am not going to go insane on anyone; I just wanted to voice my serious disgust for what has happened to them. To put it nicely, Republicans will see to it that Bob Casey never enjoys another electoral victory for himself in a General election. This will never be forgotten.

LUL, moron, sad!

These ones were pretty funny too in retrospect:

It is too bad that a decent guy like Santorum loses but a complete Douchebag like Corker wins.

As for me... if I decide to stay in PA, I am through with politics. With the victory margins yesterday there is no hope for political alternatives.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

If she wants to, she becomes either the 45th or 46th President.

Despite what some people would have you think, Benghazi wasn't a blow to her credibility on image, Bill's misdemeanors haven't affected his or her's popularities in fact her's have risen. She isn't too far left so she wins GOP moderates, independents, woman, minorities and I'd say against any GOP person she wins 50% of men. If she runs, she wins. My god, I hope she runs.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

it's fun looking at 2016 predictions from 2012.

Hillary/Kaine soundly beats Jindal/Flake.

I will give him major credit here, he correctly guessed the D ticket 4 years out.

this is a swing map btw if that wasn't obvious

[Politician]

Saccone by 15+, maybe even breaking 20.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

it's fun looking at 2016 predictions from 2012.

Hillary/Kaine soundly beats Jindal/Flake.

I will give him major credit here, he correctly guessed the D ticket 4 years out.

this is a swing map btw if that wasn't obvious

She might have done that well against Jindal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Spoiler alert: Moore will win.

Stop kidding yourselves.

[Politician]

I think Brown will win Ohio

You think Brown will win Ohio?!?  I'm sorry to break this to you, but that won't be happening.  The only Dem who has even a remote chance of winning is Paul Hackett, and even then, it's a slim chance.

[Devout Centrist]

Did the Reform Party collapse after Pat? If not who are the candidates for that party? Donald Trump should run under that party, he could round up a good, strong, and well-funded campaign. Put reform on every state ballot and bring it back to the ole Perot day stature.

Amazing

[IceSpear]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Not sure whether to induct this here or in the irony oremine.

[IceSpear]

Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson has won the race to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Of course, he'll need to dispense with the token opposition first.

[Politician]

If it opens up in 2020 or 2022, then maybe (it would likely be a "last hoorah" and flip by 2026 or 2028), but trust me, an Iowa zoom to the right is something that was a long time coming, and for a while I just knew it would happen sooner or later. Sorry Democrats, Iowa is gone (or will be realyl soon) and within 10 years it'll be Likely R (and closer to safe), and about R+10, with IA-04 being the most conservative district, and IA-02 and -03 being the least.

[Vespucci]

Breaking, and extremely strange to me. If Team Reid wanted a frosh, why not Kihuen?

[Hammy]

I don't think it'll reach a Cat 5, and I imagine it'll weaken back to a Cat 3 before landfall, much like Katrina, Ivan etc.

Needless to say Michael didn't weaken.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think it'll reach a Cat 5, and I imagine it'll weaken back to a Cat 3 before landfall, much like Katrina, Ivan etc.

Needless to say Michael didn't weaken.

A meteorologist I am not.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think it'll reach a Cat 5, and I imagine it'll weaken back to a Cat 3 before landfall, much like Katrina, Ivan etc.

Needless to say Michael didn't weaken.

From the perspective of a Tallahassee resident, Hurricane Michael was a joke. It was no joke in Mexico Beach, but it was a joke here. I'm glad I didn't drive seven hours home in the end. The storm did very minimal damage to Tallahassee overall. My parents and family very much made matters more stressful for me in the buildup to the storm than what I actually experienced, which felt like the equivalent of a Cat 1 or 2 overall.