The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content
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Author Topic: The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content  (Read 43446 times)
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« on: June 27, 2018, 05:19:03 PM »

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

From the NY-14 thread (there are probably many more there):


Justice dems are walking into the bar thinking that they are the hot cr@p. Let's show them up tonight just like we have been doing.

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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2018, 04:46:14 AM »

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

From the NY-14 thread (there are probably many more there):


Justice dems are walking into the bar thinking that they are the hot cr@p. Let's show them up tonight just like we have been doing.



Lol, at least we still wrecked Manning and a couple others, though it was still a crap night, could have been worse though.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2018, 05:47:25 PM »

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

From the NY-14 thread (there are probably many more there):


Justice dems are walking into the bar thinking that they are the hot cr@p. Let's show them up tonight just like we have been doing.



In fairness, in the absence of any publicized polling, these weren't totally unreasonable predictions.

Personally, I predicted anything from a Crowley blowout a la Donovan v. Grimm at one extreme, and the actual results at the other.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2018, 12:18:55 PM »

Chafee is center-left, Castle is center-right.

Yes Castle is probably the most moderate/liberal R in the House, but he's still more conservative than Snowe and Collins, and probably not very far left of Scott Brown. He voted against the stimulus, in favor of Stupak, and against the health care bill. On the issues of the day he's not far from the conservative base, but he's proven moderate enough to win DE.  I think he'll win both the primary and the general quite easily.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2018, 11:33:15 PM »

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2018, 11:37:23 PM »

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

I can't say I'm too upset to be wrong here!
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2018, 11:41:42 PM »

I don’t really know why people were cheering when Phifer dropped out, it made it a lot easier for Lee to win because now she’s the only anti-mining progressive remaining in the race, and she’s a well-known, popular figure in Duluth.

She probably is currently. Internal polls usually way overestimate a candidate’s support (Stacey Evans released a poll showing her down by 8 points a week before the primary, she lost by 50). It won’t be that extreme, but Radinovich is really hurt by splitting the pro-mining, moderate vote with both Metsa and Kennedy. Radinovich would beat Lee easily one-on-one, but the large amount of candidates running is hurting Radinovich and benefiting Lee.

Phifer winning the endorsement would probably have been better for Radinovich in the long-run. Metsa and Kennedy would’ve dropped out because they pledged to do so if an endorsement was made, while Lee still would’ve ran regardless, leaving Radinovich as the only pro-mining candidate against 2 progressive anti-mining candidates. But I guess politicians suck at politics.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2018, 07:53:53 AM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2018, 09:07:43 AM »

Borrowing some gems from this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173796.0

The name Barack Obama sounds like some neo-African name to me, but not Islamic.
I guess if his father really is an African immigrant, that shouldn't really be a problem. But I can't see a namechanging, Black Pride, 70s person elected to the Senate. I just can't picture it. I know Kweisi Mfume and Chaka Fattah made it to the House, but that's something else. Maybe with DC statehood, but not now.

On Palin:

McCain would do well to pick her.  Extremely excellent choice.  Sharp, well spoken, unbelievably popular, attractive candidate.  Government reformer know for her ethics reforms.  Downside.  None that I can see.  But, but she's only had two years as a governor.  Not experienced enough.  Uh, Barack, is that really where you want to try and go?

Obama/Edwards: McCain would have to devote at least 10 minutes of every stump speech to explaining who Sarah Palin is.

Well, let me be the first Republican to make a sexist comment, since I didn't participate (deliberately) in that "other" thread. I would prefer that she serve as my mistress.

The last one isn't really a prediction, but still hilarious.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 09:26:00 AM »

Ouch! These posts aged worse than moldy bread in Florida. lol  Wink + Tongue

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247191.0

Wisconsin for sure, Russ Feingold is a much better candidate and Mark Kirk is more moderate than Johnson

Wisconsin. Johnson was almost DOA in a presidential year. Feingold is the strongest candidate Democrats could have fielded this year. I think he's going to win by a fairly substantial margin and I am looking forward to having Russ Feingold back in the Senate.
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2018, 11:05:48 AM »

It's over for the DFL. Many Minnesotans have great memories of T-Paw and will happily vote for him. Say goodbye to MN-01 and MN-08 while we're at it. Blue wave is officially dead in this state.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2018, 11:23:41 AM »

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2018, 11:35:52 AM »

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

Already posted.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2018, 11:40:08 AM »

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

Already posted.


deserves to be posted twice.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2018, 04:43:30 PM »

You forgot one thing, David Ige won’t be the Dem nominee in Hawaii. Colleen Hanabusa is the presumptive nominee.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2018, 03:46:36 PM »

It seems that all signs are pointing in that direction.  But I still hesitate to say yes--because it's going to require him to be open about his finances for basically the first time in his life. We'll find out Tuesday. 

I say "no" for the reason above.

I think Trump knows that too many people think he's a joke.  He's not a Ross Perot, who was serious, had an issue (trade agreements and the deficit) and had a degree of seriousness in either (A) being President, or (B) getting back at Bush 41.  He's part of the Clown Car, and I think he knows it.  What he DOES want is influence and access at the highest levels.  The problem he has is that he's not as rich as the Koch Brothers and Sheldon Adelson who, disgusting though they are, at least know how to play the REAL game.
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2018, 02:17:40 AM »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.
This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2018, 07:27:40 PM »

It loos like Graham as pretty much won.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2018, 02:34:24 PM »


To be fair, he might still be DOA. I've been saying all along Texas is a better pickup opportunity for Democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2018, 02:53:34 PM »


Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2018, 11:38:44 AM »


Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.
About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2018, 01:47:53 PM »

Well, let me be the first Republican to make a sexist comment, since I didn't participate (deliberately) in that "other" thread. I would prefer that she serve as my mistress.

The last one isn't really a prediction, but still hilarious.


hahahahha
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2018, 03:02:25 PM »


Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.
About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

Hardly anybody thought Hogan would win in 2014. Somehow I doubt if you were here then you would've been one of the very few to predict he would.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2018, 03:42:33 PM »


Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.
About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

Hardly anybody thought Hogan would win in 2014. Somehow I doubt if you were here then you would've been one of the very few to predict he would.
Hogan was only barely behind in the polls, he certainly could have won that race. Of course, in 2014, Otter could also have lost Idaho based on polls...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2018, 12:49:29 PM »

Toomey is finished atm, this is probably Dems 2nd likeliest gain (I still think Feingold will win)

Idiotic Atlasian overconfidence. Who is this guy anyways? Sad!
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