New PA Maps In Effect

[Landslide Lyndon]

Forgive me if this is been posted else wearing this megathread, but does anyone have or know where one can find 2012 presidential election numbers for the new districts?

I think Nate Cohn posted them too on twitter.

[KingSweden]

Ryan Costello just jumped the sharked:

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Statements like that will hurt him regardless of the district he has to run in.

What a bunch of sore loser hacks. Rig the maps, and if you can’t rig the maps, get rid of the judges.

Or you could, you know, run on an agenda people support. Fancy that!

[King Lear]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

 Excessive moderated posts

[KingSweden]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Not to pile on my own party, but hell, I am passionately anti gerrymandering, in the Pennsylvania GOP deserves all the criticism it gets on this front. It's also worth adding that this 13 to 5 split came from repeated approximate 50 50 splits in the actual votes for the state's Congressional Delegation.

Anyone who wishes to try arguing that Republican gerrymandering is somehow "natural" do too concentrated Democratic strength in relatively compact urban areas need only look at map drawing abortions like the prior p a 7 and pa17 among others to see there is an EXTREMELY concerted and decidedly unnatural manipulation of District Lines to get that result.

Republicans brought this on themselves, undoubtably. That said, democrats are packed into Philly by virtue of geography. That's just a fact. Republicans could have easily drawn a 11-7 (or even 12-6) map with compact borders and few county splits (assuming that Fitzpatrick and Dent would win the roughly even PVI Bucks and Lehigh Valley based districts). Instead, they got greedy and drew monstrosities like PA-7, which is why it got thrown out.

I think Ohio (pro R) and Maryland (pro D) are the two most gerrymandered states left now. Any chances of those maps being thrown out?

SCOTUS took Maryland as a federal case that is presumed to be tied up with Whitford. Good chance that travesty gets tossed, IMO, and good riddance

[Gass3268]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

It's too late, the Governor and Secretary of State are already starting the process of implementation.

[Doimper]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

Your own wishful thinking doesn't count as a source.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

Your own wishful thinking doesn't count as a source.

It's on Daily Kos.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/21/1743438/-Pennsylvania-Republicans-utterly-rejecting-democracy-want-to-impeach-judges-who-ordered-new-maps

This is happening. The GOP has the votes to impeach the judges and the 2 Republican judges can reverse everything. There's nothing any Democrat can do at this point other than rush the implementation.

[The Other Castro]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

[Sestak]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

They literally will have to get every single GOP member to vote for that, including some in swing districts who don't want to lose their jobs.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings. It's happening, and the map will be invalidated. The best thing for the Dems to do now is to take the sore losering and turn it into success in the ballot this fall.

[The Other Castro]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings.

I am aware, but there is no scenario that ends with the PA GOP winning this map fight. To believe that such an event is likely is ridiculous.

[YE]

Didn't Ice Spear once vote for a GOP state senator in 2014 or something? So I assume there's still a few reasonable Republican legislators out there in the state.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings. It's happening, and the map will be invalidated. The best thing for the Dems to do now is to take the sore losering and turn it into success in the ballot this fall.

Removing them from office would not automatically invalidate their decisions.

[KingSweden]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

[Virginiá]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

I'm not an avid watcher of PA politics, but they do not really seem known for this kind of stuff. If this was about North Carolina, I'd believe it in an instant, but the PAGOP is not usually this aggressive. Further, impeachment of 4 or 5 Democratic justices, aka basically the entire bench, that is a dramatically corrupt thing to do in response to the court overturning a blatant gerrymander. I'm not convinced they can get every single Republican Senator to sign on to it.

If you want a situation where chances of impeachment skyrocket, I'd wait until a lawsuit is filed against the legislative maps. After all, this new Congressional map isn't threatening any state lawmaker's job

[KingSweden]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

I'm not an avid watcher of PA politics, but they do not really seem known for this kind of stuff. If this was about North Carolina, I'd believe it in an instant, but the PAGOP is not usually this aggressive. Further, impeachment of 4 or 5 Democratic justices, aka basically the entire bench, that is a dramatically corrupt thing to do in response to the court overturning a blatant gerrymander. I'm not convinced they can get every single Republican Senator to sign on to it.

If you want a situation where chances of impeachment skyrocket, I'd wait until a lawsuit is filed against the legislative maps. After all, this new Congressional map isn't threatening any state lawmaker's job

Indeed, some Senators who might not be vulnerable could be targeted for such a corrupt move

[Doimper]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

Your own wishful thinking doesn't count as a source.

It's on Daily Kos.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/21/1743438/-Pennsylvania-Republicans-utterly-rejecting-democracy-want-to-impeach-judges-who-ordered-new-maps

This is happening. The GOP has the votes to impeach the judges and the 2 Republican judges can reverse everything. There's nothing any Democrat can do at this point other than rush the implementation.

What is going on with that dude next to Toomey? A full beard, but no sideburns?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So John Morganelli won 59% of the two-party vote in his 2008 AG race in the new PA-7 against the popular incumbent Tom Corbett (who won statewide by 7% as an R despite getting shellacked in Lehigh Valley). Meanwhile, then-Senator Obama “only” won 57% of the two-party vote against McCain, a guy who was losing statewide by over 10 points. It’s also worth noting Corbett wasn’t historically weak in the Lehigh Valley area: he won all three counties of the new PA-7 in both his initial 2004 statewide win and his first gubernatorial race. So that indicates that Morganelli’s 59% of the 2-party vote against Corbett is that much more impressive.

 I’m convinced that Morganelli makes the general election a likely D affair if he wins the nomination. Probably bordering on Safe D. Or more like “when” he wins the nomination. In the 2016 AG primary he won Northampton with 74% of the vote, Lehigh with 63% and Monroe with 47% even as he was getting crushed statewide. I just don’t see how a progressive candidate can stop him on his roll to the nomination. These are almost Tomblin-grad-like following numbers.

Edwards has outraised Morganelli 2-1 (IIRC) and isn't alt-right scum like JM so if there's any justice in this world, he'll win the primary in a rout.

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

[Virginiá]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

[KingSweden]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He’s quite Trumpy

[GlobeSoc]

If I was wolf, I'd ignore the decision of any republicans' puppet court and continue implementing the redraw. If the GOP cries foul, simply point out the circumstances of the reversal of the decision.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He's a perennial statewide candidate who campaigned for Pat Toomey in 2016 after losing the primary for Attorney General. He's also apparently quite a fan of alt-right Gamergate garbage Ian Miles Cheong.

He’s also insanely popular in Northampton County.

[Virginiá]

Oh well that's just great. Policy positions aside, what the party really needs are more politicians who support Republicans against fellow Democrats. Yup yup

[KingSweden]

Especially under the new lines, we can assuredly do better than John Morganelli. I don’t know enough about Greg Edwards to say if he’s that guy, but maybe he is.

[Doimper]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He's a perennial statewide candidate who campaigned for Pat Toomey in 2016 after losing the primary for Attorney General.

Ah, the Manchin Maneuver.