Why Pittenger's seat is going to flip...

[Bidenworth2020]

I actually think this is gonna be the first sign of a true wave on election night. Anyway, let me lay this out for you...


The democrat, McCready, served 2 tours in Iraq and had raised 1.3 million! This is more than triple what Pittenger has raised.

Pittenger is a terrible incumbent, see anybody who has ever seen him speak...

The district itself, NC-09, consists of Lumbee areas and suburbs of Charlotte. It went from +6 Romney to +10 Trump, so a pretty competitive district.

Now, if you need some proof in polling, the Patriot Majority PAC had Pittenger leading 42-37. 42% for an incumbent.

anyway, this is my hot take district in my prediction, as I think it flips dem. Thoughts?

[TarHeelDem]

As a native North Carolinian I guess I'll just testify to how mad the Left is down here. A lot of liberals (myself included) like to proudly claim that NC is the most progressive state in the South. The Art Pope/Tea Party hijacking of our state has made that argument a very difficult one. Add Trump into the mix and you have a Democratic base (don't forget that Democrats are a plurality of the electorate in NC) that is ready for a revolution this November.

I don't see Pittenger holding on. I also wouldn't rule out some flat-out surprises in the overall NC results on election night. It's a special year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As a native North Carolinian I guess I'll just testify to how mad the Left is down here. A lot of liberals (myself included) like to proudly claim that NC is the most progressive state in the South. The Art Pope/Tea Party hijacking of our state has made that argument a very difficult one. Add Trump into the mix and you have a Democratic base (don't forget that Democrats are a plurality of the electorate in NC) that is ready for a revolution this November.

I don't see Pittenger holding on. I also wouldn't rule out some flat-out surprises in the overall NC results on election night. It's a special year.

I want to wish you and your fellow Tar Heel Democrats an astounding night.
Taking the NC GOP down a peg is something we can all unite behind!

[SATW]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

[Bidenworth2020]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

you really think he wins by 10% (more than trump) as a weak incumbent being triple outraised by his dem opponent? if so, you are delusional lol

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

NC-13 and NC-02 are more likely to flip than NC-08 and NC-09.

[Theodore]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

Completely Agree

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

you really think he wins by 10% (more than trump) as a weak incumbent being triple outraised by his dem opponent? if so, you are delusional lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

As a native North Carolinian I guess I'll just testify to how mad the Left is down here. A lot of liberals (myself included) like to proudly claim that NC is the most progressive state in the South. The Art Pope/Tea Party hijacking of our state has made that argument a very difficult one. Add Trump into the mix and you have a Democratic base (don't forget that Democrats are a plurality of the electorate in NC) that is ready for a revolution this November.

I don't see Pittenger holding on. I also wouldn't rule out some flat-out surprises in the overall NC results on election night. It's a special year.

North Carolina stands out to me as one of the states with the highest chance of a Republican gerrymandering of backfiring hard. The wave would have to be quite large to do it, but you could see seats like the 8th, 6th, and 5th all falling in rapid succession under certain scenarios.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

Yeah MT Treasurer is such a leftwinger. Oh wait, he isn't, and you just made a stupid strawman.

And Trump only won this district by 12%. Do you really think republicans are going to do exactly the same as they did in 2016, even though they clearly are polling at way lower numbers (mostly due to health care & the fact that a republican pres with 42% approval holds office), and democrats won PA-18 and nearly won an insanely old & conservative AZ-08? If so, you are the one who is out of your damn mind

I'm doubting democrats really make any gains whatsoever in the south but you seem pretty delusional as to how bad 2018 can be for the GOP. There's an average swing of 17 points in every special election. 47% of voters in AZ-08 were registered Republicans yet 18% of them voted for a random democrat who has never served elected office before.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

Yeah MT Treasurer is such a leftwinger. Oh wait, he isn't, and you just made a stupid strawman.

And Trump only won this district by 12%. Do you really think republicans are going to do exactly the same as they did in 2016, even though they clearly are polling at way lower numbers (mostly due to health care & the fact that a republican pres with 42% approval holds office), and democrats won PA-18 and nearly won an insanely old & conservative AZ-08? If so, you are the one who is out of your damn mind

I'm doubting democrats really make any gains whatsoever in the south but you seem pretty delusional as to how bad 2018 can be for the GOP. There's an average swing of 17 points in every special election. 47% of voters in AZ-08 were registered Republicans yet 18% of them voted for a random democrat who has never served elected office before.

[/b]

Wait, did we ever get an exit poll saying that was the amount of crossover voters?

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AZ8SpecialElectionExitPoll.pdf

Tipinerni won independents 62-34 and won 18% of republicans



I mean like, if Tipinerni can do this well, it's clear all the democrats have to do to win is shout health care at their top of their lungs. Especially when you consider the fact that premiums go up right before election day....

And the worst news for republicans is democrats generally (but not always) have better recruitment this cycle.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I want to believe.

[KingSweden]

I’ll beliebe it when I see it.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

I'll do my best not to make this a partisan squabble.

I seriously doubt Pittenger wins by that much is this environment. I think he's favored right now, but his opponent has a lot of money to get his name out, and Pittenger could potentially be damaged by a bruising primary.

I also have been to Union County just outside of Mecklenburg County. These suburbs are not the kind who would be enthused for a Trumpian GOP. Granted, Pittenger isn't really a Trumpite, but Trump is undoubtedly going to be a factor in today's nationalized environment.

At the moment, I think Pittenger wins by somewhere between 5-9%.

[Gass3268]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

[KingSweden]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

[SATW]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

Yea, low-energy prediction on my part. Sad to see him lose.

[Sestak]

If you had named the thread "Why Pittenger is going to lose re-election" you would have been proven right a lot sooner than you expected...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

[The Arizonan]

Why is it funny to read threads like this after elections?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

Just like
talk of Greitens as a future GOP nominee
Bayh's Landslide win
Pat Toomey is too Conservative to win PA, again
Russ Feingod 2.0
Hillary is Invincible 2.0 
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie. Also Rand Paul
Eric Cantor as a future Speaker/Senator
Rick Perry
Russ Feingod
Pat Toomey is too Conservative to win PA
Rob Portman can't win b/c he was Bush's trade Rep.
The Democrats 40 year Majority and gains in 2010.
Hillary is Invincible
Rudy
Rick Santorum as the next Senate Majority Leader. Ironically, since Mitch is still in charge, he would still be waiting, lol.
George Allen as the Conservative champion who'd ride across the Potomac in 2008 into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, riding a white horse and bearing the confederate flag. lol 2005 ftw

[BuckeyeNut]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

[OneJ]

Tossup/Tilt D it is. Pittenger defeated, D enthusiasm, and McCready’s huge $ advantage over Harris are just a few factors. Would not surprise me at all if this flips.

[The Arizonan]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

This did not age well.

Just like
talk of Greitens as a future GOP nominee
Bayh's Landslide win
Pat Toomey is too Conservative to win PA, again
Russ Feingod 2.0
Hillary is Invincible 2.0 
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie. Also Rand Paul
Eric Cantor as a future Speaker/Senator
Rick Perry
Russ Feingod
Pat Toomey is too Conservative to win PA
Rob Portman can't win b/c he was Bush's trade Rep.
The Democrats 40 year Majority and gains in 2010.
Hillary is Invincible
Rudy
Rick Santorum as the next Senate Majority Leader. Ironically, since Mitch is still in charge, he would still be waiting, lol.
George Allen as the Conservative champion who'd ride across the Potomac in 2008 into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, riding a white horse and bearing the confederate flag. lol 2005 ftw

Don't forget about rising star Jon Ossoff.