AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[NOVA Green]

ALSO- Tipernini wins the Luke Field precinct, the precinct containing Luke Airforce Base... Dems wining military vote in Blue wave.

There are still Military Absentee Votes yet to come in from this precinct, so these numbers might bump a bit higher Dem....

Even though it is Air Force and nor Army, Navy nor Marines, unlike the other Military branches where I have had many friends and family proudly serve over Decades, Air Force is considered to be the most Republican branch of the Armed Services, as measured by various political surveys over the Decades in the Military Times....

https://www.militarytimes.com/

The traditional typical pattern of the Military Vote was that Enlisted Men & Women tended to lean quite a bit more Dem than Pub compared to the officer corp, although both populations tended to be a bit more heavily Pub, even controlling for variables such as social-demographics....

One of the interesting subtexts of the Obama '08 PRES numbers that many have likely forgotten, is how well Obama performed among Active-Duty service members....

As we move 10 years forward in time and space from '08, it is perhaps not surprising to see these types of numbers from "Military Base Precincts".... (Summoning Atlas legend Alcon now for Military Vote by precinct in '08), even among the "Officer Corp" among the most 'Pub branch of the US Military start to shift a bit Dem in the "Age of Trump"....

Gotta love precinct results, so question is that is this precinct exclusively a "Base Precinct" or are there a few fringe off-base parts of the precinct that might contaminate this as a data point for Active Service members of the Armed Forces voting patterns come Nov '18 in the Great State of Arizona and Nationally.....

[Tender Branson]

On Monday, only 3.500 ballots were returned.

So why do we think that on Tuesday as many as 17.000 were returned and are still to be counted ?

[new_patomic]

On Monday, only 3.500 ballots were returned.

So why do we think that on Tuesday as many as 17.000 were returned and are still to be counted ?

Update on that actually, according to Kornacki there are 9,483 uncounted early votes.

[smoltchanov]

Despite narrow loss - obviously, a very good results for Democrats. I, personally, expected 8-9% Lesko win, and Democratic candidate did better...

[Adam Griffin]

On Monday, only 3.500 ballots were returned.

So why do we think that on Tuesday as many as 17.000 were returned and are still to be counted ?

Mail ballots dropped off in-person on Tuesday will be the vast majority of those 15-20k.

[cp]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

Since 2012, the maps in VA, FL and PA have changed. Republican retirements are a big factor and Democrats got some star recruits (Ojeda, Davis, Lamb) in red-leaning districts. In addition, Dems can’t really win big cities by more than the already did, they should gain in suburban and rural Midwest districts. My bold prediction is that a 5 point lead in the NPV would be enough for a thin majority.

Yeah, I think you're being both too optimistic and pessimistic about the Dems chances in November, Tender.

A Dem advantage in the PV of 8-12% is virtually guaranteed to give them a comfortable majority. In 2006 the Dems had an 8 point advantage and picked up 31 seats, and that was when the maps in VA, FL, PA, and CA were much less fertile ground. As kph14 points out, the Dems pretty much maxed out their lead in urban areas in 2016 when they lost the PV by 1%, so any gains in the GCB over that will be more efficient than their existing vote.

For my money, I think an 8-10% Dem lead would give them a majority of about 20 (so, 240ish seats); 10-12% would be more like a 50-60 seat gain. Based on current trends, it's possible the Dems could get a 12-15% lead which would grant them triple digit gains in seats, but I think the more likely scenario is somewhere around 10% and 40-50 seats.

As for the Senate, however, I think it's way too early to be so bullish as to predict the Dems flipping the chamber. They're well positioned in NV and AZ (obviously!) but they're by no means locked down. TN is a stretch, albeit looking better by the day, and Dems in MO, WV, ND, and IN are not out of the woods yet - though I am beginning to think McCaskill's a witch with all the good luck she's getting!

[Dr. Arch]

And everyday is more confirmation of my realignment theories.

Which are?

[NOVA Green]

There might still be upwards of 17K ballots to be counted, because early ballots could still be mailed today.

Not that there's still a chance. Just, ya know, the ride never ends.

Welcome to Atlas!!!

I know you have a few post counts, but first time I've seen you post, but that is a very important point, although I still am def calling this for the Pubs....

Anyone want to correct my "old man memory", but does AZ have Provisional Ballots of any type???

Not to be blunt, but in a "Papers Please" type of State, are there ballots set aside under statute for further review?

In Oregon which is a 100% VbM state, the signatures on your Mail In Ballots are scanned against voter REG sigs on file, cross-referenced against DMV sig records, etc....

Obviously the 'Pub narrowly won here, but still curious where the ballots are still out, final margins, etc...

[Badger]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[Doimper]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[IceSpear]

Reminder that all the pundits have AZ-06 as safe R, yet have AZ-09 as only likely D. Lollllll

[Sestak]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

Since 2012, the maps in VA, FL and PA have changed. Republican retirements are a big factor and Democrats got some star recruits (Ojeda, Davis, Lamb) in red-leaning districts. In addition, Dems can’t really win big cities by more than the already did, they should gain in suburban and rural Midwest districts. My bold prediction is that a 5 point lead in the NPV would be enough for a thin majority.

How can we be sure Dems are maxed out in urban areas?

[Atlas Force]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[Gustaf]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

Since 2012, the maps in VA, FL and PA have changed. Republican retirements are a big factor and Democrats got some star recruits (Ojeda, Davis, Lamb) in red-leaning districts. In addition, Dems can’t really win big cities by more than the already did, they should gain in suburban and rural Midwest districts. My bold prediction is that a 5 point lead in the NPV would be enough for a thin majority.

How can we be sure Dems are maxed out in urban areas?

There is at least some limit to how much swing can happen in areas where virtually everyone already votes Democrat.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I just really don't get it. How the hell was there such a big swing!?!? The median age of voters here was 67 and 48% of voters were registered republicans.

The wave is is going to hit everywhere...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hahahahaha!!!

[Tender Branson]

POTUS Trump apparently doesn't understand much about (previous) election results and swings.

I wonder if he'll tweet the same in November, after losing the House and the Senate ...

[JG]

I just really don't get it. How the hell was there such a big swing!?!? The median age of voters here was 67 and 48% of voters were registered republicans.

The wave is is going to hit everywhere...

People were expecting Republicans turn out to drop and Republicans not to be too inspired to vote. Apparently, Republicans will vote anyway. Problem is they might vote for democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nate Cohn is arguing that this is probably the worst election result for the GOP so far.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/988983231428157440

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten has an article on how this result essentially puts to bed some of the excuses that have been made for GOP underperformance in previous specials: https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/politics/lesko-wins-but-not-good-gop/index.html.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think had this district been not been VBM Lesko would've lost.

[LimoLiberal]

Reminder that all the pundits have AZ-06 as safe R, yet have AZ-09 as only likely D. Lollllll

'

The pundits are pretty spot on in certain states but horrible in Arizona.

[Wiz in Wis]

D +31 is the largest Congressional special election swing so far, including Alabama and PA-18

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/25/us/politics/special-election-results-shift-democratic.html