AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Tender Branson]

Do you think Dr. Hiral could become "America's Next Super-Lamb" or will this turn out to be harder than PA-18, Alabama etc. ?

[Tender Branson]

No, he won't and pundits will act like this is the ultimate proof that the blue wave is dead.

She.

[Tender Branson]

Why is this thread entitled "general election"?

Because the primaries were already held.

PS: I think this race is closer than people think ... (maybe within 5-10 points). And could very well become really tight.

[Tender Branson]

We should have an AZ-08 megathread. The race is probably going to heat up soon, Republicans just can’t help but endanger safe seats like this in Trump’s America.

This is the right place then.

[Tender Branson]

3 different spellings of his name on this page alone.

"her name"

[Tender Branson]

10 point looks OK.

I always thought she'll lose by between 3-10 points, which would still foreshadow a huge blue wave in November.

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

Emerson College

45.8% Hiral Tipirneni (D)
45.4% Debbie Lesko (R)
  3.6% Others
  5.3% Undecided

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-az-usc8-pr.pdf

http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-az-usc8-special.xls

[Tender Branson]

It's unlikely that she's winning it, but if she does ... this is going to happen to Republicans in November:

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING: New Emerson Poll (they had a previous poll last week showing Tiperneni +1)

Tiperneni (D) - 43 (-3)
Lesko (R) - 49 (+4)

Looks about right. That's also what I predicted in the prediction thread.

Would still be a very nice swing of 15 points for the Dems. Easily enough to win the Senate seat in November.

[Tender Branson]

There are 3 things that - while unlikely - could still lead to a surprisingly close race tomorrow:

* a surge of election-day voters, making up more of the overall votes than usual

* Tirippinenninni getting 70% of Independents

* Tripinininineni getting many Republican defectors

... or a combination of these points.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, that's a really nice result for the Dems.

And the election day vote only seems to come in now ...

Looks like R+4 in the end. A swing of 17 points towards the Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

How do we know which precincts are reporting?

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/precinctsreported

[Tender Branson]

Unlike the NYT results page, the Maricopa County page also shows write-in results and over/under votes:

  83.172 Lesko (R) - 52.6%
  74.253 Tipirneni (D) - 46.9%
       588 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       189 over/under votes - 0.1%

158.202 total votes cast 

Lesko currently ahead by 5.7 points.

[Tender Branson]

Another big batch has just came in (86/143 election-day precincts reporting):

  87.580 Lesko (R) - 52.3%
  78.841 Tipirneni (D) - 47.2%
       604 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       190 over/under votes - 0.1%

167.215 total votes cast  

Lesko currently ahead by 5.1 points.

[Tender Branson]

Lesko is actually losing the election-day vote against Tipirneni so far, but this will only lower her overall winning margin to some 4.5% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Debbie Lesko
Republican
87,580   52.6%   
Hiral Tipirneni
Democrat
78,841   47.4   
166,421 votes, 60% reporting (86 of 143 precincts)

You are not using the correct data source, just as an information.

Write-in and over/under votes are missing, therefore the percentages are wrong.

This is the correct source:

Another big batch has just came in (86/143 election-day precincts reporting):

  87.580 Lesko (R) - 52.3%
  78.841 Tipirneni (D) - 47.2%
       604 Write-Ins - 0.4%
       190 over/under votes - 0.1%

167.215 total votes cast  

Lesko currently ahead by 5.1 points.

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the NYT precinct map, it seems most of the precincts that are left to be counted are in strong(er) Lesko areas.

So, Lesko's overall lead might remain above 5% after all is counted.

[Tender Branson]

Let's not forget that the last 3 special elections (AL, PA-18, AZ-08) - which had huge swings to the Dems - all 3 involved a scandalous/racist Republican running or stepping down because of a sex scandal.

So, the swings to the Dems in these 3 elections might have been artificially higher than under normal circumstances.

Yet the swing under normal circumstances would still be D+10 or something ... enough for a blue wave in November.

[Tender Branson]

Based on the recent election results, I expect Dems to win the US House vote by about 8-12% in November, resulting in a narrow majority of seats.

But considering the ridiculous gerrymandering of seats in favour of Republicans, that margin is definitely needed and there's no room for error: Remember that in 2012, Democrats won the House popular vote by 1%, but Republicans won 54% of the seats in the House.

If the climate remains favourable, Democrats will also win the Senate (by defending all their own seats + picking up NV, AZ and TN).

[Tender Branson]

100% of precincts now reporting:

  91.390 Lesko (R)
  82.318 Tipirneni (D)
       615 Write-Ins
       190 over/under votes

174.513 total votes cast  

52.37% - Lesko (R)
47.17% - Tipirneni (D)
  0.35% - Write-Ins
  0.11% - over/under votes

Lesko wins by 5.2 points.

[Tender Branson]

She ended up above 5%?

Yes, but there might be additional postal ballots left to count (those that were returned on election day).

But I'm not sure if they got already counted or not ...

[Tender Branson]

On Monday, only 3.500 ballots were returned.

So why do we think that on Tuesday as many as 17.000 were returned and are still to be counted ?

[Tender Branson]

POTUS Trump apparently doesn't understand much about (previous) election results and swings.

I wonder if he'll tweet the same in November, after losing the House and the Senate ...

[Tender Branson]

Update (new batch of election day/dropoff votes):

  95.499 Lesko (R)
  86.771 Tipirneni (D)
       635 Write-Ins

183.118 total votes cast (incl. 213 over/under-votes)

52.21% - Lesko (R)
47.44% - Tipirneni (D)
  0.35% - Write-Ins

Lesko wins by 4.77 points.

[Tender Branson]

Final (?) vote dump of some 1.000 ballots:

  95.995 Lesko (R)
  87.299 Tipirneni (D)
       636 Write-Ins

184.149 total votes cast (incl. 219 over/under-votes)

52.19% - Lesko (R)
47.46% - Tipirneni (D)
  0.35% - Write-Ins

Lesko wins by 4.73 points.