AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

Think of it as comedy relief.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tossup.

What is the argument why this would be anything less than Lean R? Republicans have an acceptable candidate and the fundamentals favor them.

All of those recent special elections have been an absolute disaster for Republicans, so I think caution is justified here. This race could very well still tighten, and the composition of the electorate should be very favorable to Democrats. My predictions actually underestimated Dallet and Lamb, I’m not going to make that same mistake again here.

This race will probably move considerably toward the Democrats as most of the other special elections have done, but it's a much less favorable environment for them than the Dallet and Lamb contests were.  I agree with Brittain33 that this is Lean R at best, and probably closer to Likely R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

3 different spellings of his name on this page alone.

"her name"

OK, that's 3 spellings and 2 genders so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think Lesko wins by 8-10% (which would still be a good result for the Democrats).

[GeorgiaModerate]

This race couldn't possibly be competitive. Is it really?? If so, Republicans are in deep manure.

It should've been apparent that Republicans were in deep manure after ___literally Alabama___ gave a Democrat a majority in a federal race. Welcome to the wave!

[Maximum Atlas pedantry] Jones didn't quite get a majority.  He got 49.97%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm still not buying this.  PA-18 was a more D-favorable environment, and Lamb just barely eked out a win there after a great campaign.  I can see it getting into single digits, but it's difficult to see a D victory in this district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Lesko wins 54-45.

That's about where I am too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No Limo. It's clear Emerson effed up on their last poll and have released a more accurate one. The early vote is pretty clear this isn't going to be that close. This has nothing to do with the generic ballot.

Edit: Apparently Emerson even admitted they changed their methodology because of the early vote.

Pollsters shoudn't do this.

If they thought their previous methodology was flawed, fixing it is the right thing to do (as long as they're transparent about it).

[GeorgiaModerate]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

The other 56 are for Jeb!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten has an article on how this result essentially puts to bed some of the excuses that have been made for GOP underperformance in previous specials: https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/politics/lesko-wins-but-not-good-gop/index.html.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/989150202022985728

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/989186570120060928

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think a ten points national margin of victory is looming for the Democrats in the House.

There's still a lot of time for the environment to change, but if it doesn't this is probably in the ballpark.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Excellent and thorough analysis as always, Nova. So my next, and perhaps most important question, is the following. What is the Democrats most realistic road to flipping the seat in 2008? Include whatever factors, demographic, Precinct analysis, whatever, necessary.

A time machine?