AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[NOVA Green]

The median age according to census bureau numbers of this district compared to mine is a tad bit higher. 61% of voters here are 50+ years of age so I’m assuming that’s similar for AZ-8. You could compare this to PA-18 but there’s a big problem: this is an ancestrally Republican area while PA-18 was ancestrally Democrat. The older voters here are almost certainly staying Republican.

The GOP have been known to blow easy to win races so we’ll see. But this is gonna be even tougher than PA-18.

Bolded relevant section....

This is generally along my line of thinking about why this district will likely be a much more problematic Democratic pickup than PA-18, with one important item that I think needs to be addressed as part of a potential compare/contrast type analysis.

Although the term Ancestral Democrat has been bandied about within the context of PA-18, the reality is that this "Current" district was basically designed to put the historically most reliably Republican areas (South Pittsburgh Suburban Communities) into the district as a bulwark against the Ancestral Democrats of Washington and Greene Counties ( +9 D in '00, virtually 50/50 in '04, marginal 'Pub in '08), in the event of a major Democratic Swing....

1.) Sure the "Ancestral Democratic" Washington and Greene counties swung harder Dem in the 2017 Special Election compared to the '18 GE than the Southern Pittsburgh Suburbs, but it was ultimately the solidly reliably Republican voters of the 'Burbs/ Exurbs that were the ultimate spike in the head to Republican efforts to retain this CD.

*** Note, there are some Ancestral Democratic communities in South Allegheny, with more similar historical, economic, and demographic patterns to those of parts of Washington/Greene County, and although I haven't covered them yet on the PA-18 Results thread, places like Carnegie PA swing to mind, and certainly I would certainly imagine that there are a fair number of Senior Citizens that remember the collapse of the local economy in the Reagan '80s, shifted Republican later, etc....

2.) In PA CD-18 you arguably had two positive developments both move in the favorable direction of the Democratic Party:

      A.) Reliably Pittsburgh Upper Middle-Class Republican 'Burbs that were in most communities (Outside of Mt. Lebanon and Upper St. Clair) fairly resistant to the 15-20% swings that we saw in many similar such communities between '12 and '16, swing hard Dem in the '18 CD-18 election with High Turnout.

     B.) "Ancestral Democratic" voters that shifted heavily from Dem > Pub between '00 and '16 coming back home to Lamb in '18, and actually looked closer to Obama/McCain '08 GE numbers in places like Greene and Washington than anything else.

3.) Both of these core truths about the 2018 PA CD-18 election start to become extremely problematic when looking at the Political Geography of AZ CD-08.

      A.) These suburban areas within this part of Phoenix are generally some of the Oldest and most historically overwhelmingly Republican parts of Phoenix, and those areas where we did not really see the major swings towards HRC that we saw in many other places.

Additionally, one needs to look at the context of AZ-08 Seniors/Retirees, where many of these Southern California retirees moving to the dry heat and subdivisions of the desert, at a time in many cases before or shortly after Republicans in California chose to politicize immigration as a wedge issue thanks to Governor Pete Wilson....

The politics of immigration plays much differently among the Seniors here, than it does in Southwest Pennsylvania (Essentially a Non-Issue), Violent Crime (Suburban Pittsburgh--- "Happens in rough neighborhoods in the City, not a Racial gig" vs Older Anglo Suburban Phoenix-- "Violence from Mexican and Central American Gangs").

       B.) There isn't really anything approaching an "Ancestral Democratic Base"....  The closest thing approximating might be a slow rising mixed coalition of Arizona Latinos rapidly shifting Democrat as a result of rejections from the National Republican Party, combined with various knowledge sector workers living on the fringes of the 'Burbs and 'Exurbs to deal with Phoenix Metro Rush hour traffic in exchange for cheaper, bigger, and newer house, throw in a decent chunk of Millennial Salt and Pepper into the Mix, etc....

Obviously the growing Anglo Democratic Coalition is a lot more than all that, but let's just put it this way, it is a VERY recent phenomenon.

Had a few previous posts on a couple threads that I quickly pulled up, and have been planning on looking more at the Maricopa CD-08 in detailed levels, since I have a few theories as to what a potential long-shot Dem pickup of this seat would look like.

See a few of my Posts below on the attached links, although I'm pretty sure there are a few more out there when it comes to Maricopa County:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277087.msg5905171;topicseen#msg5905171

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277333.msg5911449;topicseen#msg5911449

To close, I could envision a few potential "Outs" to use a poker metaphor for the Dem candidate to have the "Boss Hand" after the fifth card flops, but right now "pre-flop" looking like the Pub Candidate is sitting on pocket Queens against an AK (Ace-King) Suited.

[NOVA Green]

As Richard Nixon used to famously say when talking to his key advisers regarding a wide range of Policy Issues from Vietnam, to the Civil Rights Movement transitioning to Northern States, Economic Policy, etc:   

"How Will it Play in Peoria"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_it_play_in_Peoria%3F

Although Richard Nixon was talking about Peoria, Illinois and not Peoria, Arizona, it is perhaps a fitting barometer of the 8th Congressional District of Arizona, where Peoria represents almost 25% of the Vote Share of the district, and essentially will provide a key test of Trump's ability to keep the Republican Party brand intact within a fast growing Exurban City within the Sun Belt, where in theory Trump's American Nativist and Hardline stance on immigration should be a winning proposition.....

Let's start with taking a look at the relative vote share by Community within AZ-08.



So as we see the vote share within the Congressional District is roughly as follows:

Peoria- 23%
Glendale- 17%
Surprise- 16.5%
Phoenix- 11%
Goodyear- 9%
UNINC-OTHER- 8%
Sun City- 7%
Sun City West- 4%
Others- 5 %

Why do I provide such significance to Peoria within CD-08, compared to other communities within the District, other than just the raw percentage of the vote coming from this "City"?

Basically any roadmap for Democratic victory within CD-08 will by necessity involve exceeding Democratic Maricopa County Sheriff candidate Paul Penzone's numbers in a district where Trump ally "Sheriff Joe Arpaio" won by 16,000 votes ( +5% Rep), while Trump won it by 70k votes (+ 20.7% Rep).

There are a huge number of Trump > Penzone cross-over voters that traditionally vote Republican, that any Democratic Candidate will need to win in this hardcore Rock-Ribbed 'Pub Suburban/Exurban Phoenix district.

Here's a chart of the '16 Sheriff Results by Place within CD-08.



Let's look at the '16 Presidential Results by Place within CD-08:



Now, to put this all within the larger context, we have not only the largest voting bank within the District, but additionally the place with almost the highest percentage of Trump > DEM Sheriff cross-over voters in 2016, other than some Upper-Income parts of Phoenix which I'll get to later !!!!

What else makes Peoria particularly significant when it comes to CD-08?

It generally mirrors the overall Demographics of the District.

AZ-CD08: Race & Ethnicity:



Peoria AZ: Race & Ethnicity:



Arizona CD-08: Household Income by Place:



Arizona CD-08: Education by Place:



Ok---- we have now established the Peoria is really perhaps the key place to watch in CD-08 when it comes to electoral margins.


Peoria Election Results 2012 PRES and 2016 GENERAL:



So what we see here is again how reliably Republican Peoria is, even in the 2016 Presidential Elections, with the local County elections for Sheriff being the only real case of a major deviation from recent voting history.

Now, although I haven't compiled the numbers for other Maricopa County downballot races, it does appear that in places like Peoria there was not only a major rejection of "Sheriff Joe" running under the Republican banner, but also to a significant extent local elected County offices from County Attorney, to County Recorder, to County School Superintendent even in solidly Republican precincts in Maricopa County.

It is potentially an early warning sign that Anglo Middle-Class Exurban voters are starting to reject their Maricopa County Republican Party Machine at a local level, and might well move on up the Food Chain in 2018.

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but many of these voters went Democratic in essentially a nationalized election (County Sheriff) for the first time in their voting histories in a Metro Area where in theory the whole "Anti-Immigrant" shtick used be a shoe-in for any Republican Candidate running for office.

Glendale, Arizona:

In theory, Glendale should be the closest potential thing to a Democratic stronghold in the event of a massive 2018 Democratic Wave election.

It has a huge 17% of CD-08 votes, Trump "only" won by 12.5% of the Vote, and the Democratic Candidate for Sheriff captured a whopping 52% of the Vote against Arpaio.

The reality is that CD-08 was basically designed to take to most Democratic and Latino portions of Glendale and pack them into the district in the South, and essentially left the 2/3 of the City with the most traditionally Republican voters "Up North" as a safety insurance policy.

So although overall Glendale was only (45-47 Trump) in 2016, the 25% of the Population outside of CD-08 was (59-33 Clinton).

The 80% of Glendale remaining within the district incorporates a mix of Working-Class / Lower Middle-Class communities in the Southern precincts that tend to be heavily Anglo with a decent Latino Population, to rolling North to heavily Upper Middle-Class Anglo precincts in the far Northern part of the City.

Here is a Map of Glendale Arizona shaded by % of Latinos within the Population....



So for anyone not used to looking at these types of maps, basically what you are looking at with the darkest shading are heavily Latino precincts, not located within Arizona CD-08, and the part of Glendale you see North of the Giant dividing line, includes some precincts in "South Central" Glendale that might be around 25 % Latino.

Here is a Map shaded by Median Household Income for Glendale that shows that the heavily Upper-Income parts of the City reside in the Northern Part of the City.



Here is a Glendale precinct map that shows the overall Trump > Clinton margins by Precinct:



Note there are three precinct cut off the Map (Butler +9 HRC, Caron +4 DJT, Glencroft +6 HRC), but I think y'all get the picture that this should normally be considered solidly Republican Suburban Country under a normal "Generic Republican" Universe.

Now, we are looking a potential scenario where places like the Gerrymandered most 'Pub section of Glendale is looking like a potential Democratic stronghold within CD-08 in November '18, in a similar fashion like Mt. Lebanon, Pennsylvania went from being a Lean Republican suburb of Pittsburgh to an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold within barely over 10 years....

Ok--- that might be a bit of a stretch, but still the South Pittsburgh 'Burbs of PA-18 mostly resisted the major Dem swing in Upper-Income Anglo 'Burbs in the '16 GE (+ 5% '12 >'16 Dem Pres Swing) and then came swinging hard with massive whacks off the baseball bat....

Anyways--- have tons of more data from the 142 precincts that make up AZ CD-08, but unlike PA CD-18, there are no Ancestral Democratic voting blocks that are available to come back to the fold to add to major swings in Suburban/Exurban Republican areas for a win.

Instead what we have is a new emerging Democratic Coalition in the most Republican Part of Metro Phoenix without any real historical Democratic Base (HRC won 12/142 Precincts in '16), with the overwhelming majority of the others won by Trump with Double Digits, and the only election in recent memory where a Democrat has won a huge chunk of real estate throughout the district was running as County Sheriff against a guy under multiple legal clouds, who cost the taxpayers of Maricopa County Hundreds of Millions of Dollars because of his shady law enforcement techniques.

My suspicion is that for a Democrat to win this seat it would take something like the following from the places within the district:

1.) Peoria (52-48 D)
2.) Glendale (59-41 D)
3.) Surprise (51-49 D)
3.) Phoenix (53-47 D)
4.) Goodyear (61-39 D)
5.) Sun City (44-56 R)
6.) Sun City West (41-59 R)
7.) Uninc Others (48-52 R)

To Be Continued.....

[NOVA Green]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

[NOVA Green]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?

[NOVA Green]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?

Do you happen to have the partisanship breakdown of the AZ-08 early vote in 2016?

No---- Honestly I'm not even sure that data is publicly available anywhere, unless one happens to have purchased the information from Maricopa County directly, or spent tons of hours scribing the data directly from the County Election office.

Maybe another poster has access to data that either I wasn't able to locate for lack of proper search terms, or has access to data behind the "paywall", in which case if they were to send me the data files would be more than happy to spend some time running the numbers against my current data sets.....

[NOVA Green]

Realized that maybe I jumped the gun a bit when it came to my original post regarding CD-08 and started jumping into the weeds a bit perhaps without providing the topline election numbers by community within CD-08....

Here is a Chart that I made for how the various places within AZ CD-08 voted from '12 to '16 for key races...



So, what does this data tell us within the context of the AZ-08 Special Election and potentially the AZ '18 GE???

First thing obviously to look at would be how the Democratic and Republican US SEN candidates performed in the 2012 AZ-SEN race...

The reason why I consider that significant is that here you had a Republican Senator significantly under-perform the US-PRES candidate in 2012 but still win by (56-39 R), so if Dems might potentially flip the district in a Special Election in '18, the Dem candidate would need to perform exceptionally well in places where Flake was relatively weak.

We can also look at the 2012 vs 2016 Presidential Election numbers as a potential data point in terms of areas where one might expect to see larger swings towards the Dem in the '18 AZ CD-08 Special Election....



So interestingly enough despite the "Latino Surge" of 2016, it appears that at least within the most heavily Latino and Working-Class part of the Congressional district, Millennial Latinos shifted heavily towards 3rd Party Candidates if we look at El Mirage for example.

Now, it does get confusing in the Suburbs and Exurbs of Phoenix when trying to separate the Anglo/Latino Vote, without going deep into the weeds of precinct results, but the immediate data does seem to suggest that the '12 to '16 Dem Pres Swings were more predominant in more heavily Anglo precincts within the district.

This is actually both positive and negative data when it comes to a Democrat running within the district for a "low turnout" Special Election....

The negative side is obvious, is that even with a "surge" of Latino Millennials voting in '16 for 3rd Party Pres candidates, will they actually turn out to vote in a 2018 Special Election?

The positive side is that there appears to have been a significant shift among Middle and Upper-Middle Class Anglos towards a Democratic Candidate in a big way for the first time ever in many of these communities....



Key question here, is to what extent was the rejection of "Sheriff Joe" considered to be more of an issue of corrupt local top cop and an Anti-Latino bigot to boot, vs a rejection among many McCain/Flake/Romney traditional 'Pub voters that gave Trump a pass in '16, that having voted Democrat for the first time in quite a few years, might continue to follow that path into the 2018 General Election?

I don't pretend to have the answers to any of these questions, and hopefully will have some time to go through the various communities that consist of CD-08 in greater detail before the upcoming special election.

Still, hopefully there is some food for thought here....

[NOVA Green]

If Tipirneni does well in AZ-08, she should run statewide. She lives in a very upscale and Republican part of AZ-08, I believe, so finding electable local offices would probably be very hard for her. Either way, Tipirneni and Lesko are probably going to have a rematch in November.

What rough neighborhood does she live in and what rough neighborhood does her opponent live in?

Curious to see to what extent we will see respective "home town" bumps for both candidates, much as we saw in PA-18 for the respective 'Pub and 'Dem candidates in Mt Lebanon and Elizabeth Township.

In a relatively close election this could potentially be the "tipping point".

[NOVA Green]

So, although I've generally been much more pessimistic about Democrats chances of a pickup in this district than many other Atlas posters on this thread and some others, there are a few items I have been thinking about, indicating that this race might be closer than the political geography might suggest.

1.) The Democratic candidate's themes are heavily focused on two major issues---

    A.) Health Care / Medicaid/Medicare/ Social Security

These are issues where we have seen Democratic Candidates perform especially well among Older Voters, even in "traditionally" heavily Republican regions of the Country, since the 2016 General Election.

We have also observed that support for "Obamacare" is now practically at a record high, and "Health Care" is now emerging as one of the major voter issues in Generic Ballot polls.

IF older Republican Leaning voters within CD-08 start flipping hard Democratic, this will likely be one of the major issues of salience within the district, as these voters consider which candidate they want to represent them in Washington DC.

    B.) Schools/Education

The Democratic Candidate has been directly attacking her Republican opponent for being a key person behind a bill to gut the Public School system in Maricopa County and shift dollars into Private schools as part of a "voucher system".

So here you see a major pitching point towards another key demographic voting bloc within the Suburbs and Exurbs of CD-08: Middle-Class Anglo parents whose kids attend public schools.

Although I haven't run the exact numbers for CD-08 yet, we saw a Democratic Candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction for Maricopa County perform extremely well in this heavily Republican district.

Interestingly enough Education Policy issues seem to getting much more attention these days, especially in heavily Trump States such as West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kentucky, as a result of Teachers going on strike for both wages/benefits, but equally importantly to increase overall funding for education that has been gutted in those various states as a result of tax cuts for the rich and corporations.

How will this all balance out in CD-08 where in many ways the interests of Seniors and Middle-Aged Taxpayers with Public School aged kids, diverge on taxation policy, idk???

2.) So far the Early Voting numbers indicate this will be an extremely high turnout special election...

Latest update from 4/5 shows over 83k ballots cast, and we are still almost 20 days out to election day!!!!

I think we had about 332k numbers in '16 for a Presidential GE, so we are already at 25% of the votes in compared to a major flagship election with almost 3 weeks to go....

My initial assumption was that this would be a much lower turnout election, which would give places like Sun City and Sun City West a disproportionate share of the total district vote, as in the '14 AZ Gubernatorial Election where they accounted for a collective 15% of the District Vote, compared to 11% in the '16 Presidential GE.

High Turnout elections in a district like this are generally good news for Democrats....

3.) Looking at the data on the 83k Votes cast thus far and Party breakdown might on the surface look extremely bad for Dems (48 R- 28 D- 24 I), but actually at this point in the Early Vote Turnout is not a bad result at all for anyone rooting for a Dem upset....

Although, I haven't run all of the numbers yet, AZ- SEN Districts 21 and 22 are key in this election, and at this early point (Remember Republicans Vote Early, and sometimes often when they fill in their kids absentee ballots that arrive in the mail while they are away at college), 'Pubs are only +15 in AZ-Senate District 21 (+ 15 Trump '16), and in AZ SEN District 22 up + 23 ( + 28 Trump '16).

So.... although this is still WAY early, we do have almost 84k votes in the bag and the early voter turnout signs don't necessarily look as rosily optimistic as one might imagine....

Coming soon comparison of AZ State Senate/House races by district, since I guess this might be the best way to look at any tea leaves when it comes to overall turnout within the district and potential "enthusiasm gaps" along the way....

[NOVA Green]

Decided to shift focus slightly here, since it appears that we will have some updated results of Early Vote totals by Partisan Registration and Arizona State legislative districts to potentially provide us with some means of trying to interpret early voting results as they roll in from the Great State of Arizona...

People might want to file away or bookmark some of this data as a reference point over the next couple weeks....

So here is a chart I made that shows the current Early Voting numbers by legislative districts compared against the 2016 General Election and 2014 General Election that gives us an idea of the relative vote share by State Districts.



I'll try to keep updating this semi-regularly as we get updated results for EV numbers by district.

Now, the key caveat here is that the numbers for '14 and '16 are the total vote share by district (Including Election Day ballots, as well as all Early Voting ballots) and obviously the numbers on the left are constantly under development.

Although I don't pretend to be a fluent expert on the dynamics of Early Voting in Arizona, but in Oregon that has long been an all Vote-by-Mail State, we typically tend to see a massive surge of ballots show up in the last week on an election, and these frequently tend to come from younger and Middle-Aged voters, Cities/Suburbs, and tend to skew a bit more Democratic than some of the earliest wave of mail-in-ballots.

Thus far we are seeing one major trend in CD-08 vote share that stands out, which is the extremely lopsided numbers from State District 22, which has always been the largest "Vote Bank" in the district, and looking at an off-year election in 2014 tends to have an even heavier weight.

If we look at the next largest district State District 21 we see a relatively stable performance compared to '14 and '16.

Elsewhere thus far we are seeing significant drops in most other State Districts, with the exception of State District 13.

The largest % drop of EV in AZ-08 compared to total Vote Share by State District, is in District 20.

This is perhaps not surprising, considering that those districts that vote early early by mail, versus those areas with much higher rates of "Same Day" turnout are going to experience some variances, but it is still important to continue to observe going forward.

Now, how did these Arizona State Districts vote between 2012 and 2016 for some key races?



So what does this matrix that I generated tell us (If anything) about voting patterns in CD-08?

1.) Look closely at the 2012 US-SEN results by district to see how well a "New Republican Congressional Candidate" performed by State District in CD-08 in what was generally considered to be a favorable Republican election year.

      A.) We see really only three Republican State District strongholds (Districts 1, 15, and 22) and then some relative marginal numbers in Districts 13,20, & 21.

      B.)Some of the margins are explained by a 3rd Party Libertarian Candidate that performed quite well, but Trump still outperformed Flake in most of the State Districts as a % of Total 'Pub Votes, with the exception of State District 15, 29 & 30.

2.) The closest thing we have to a winning Democratic playbook in CD-08 would be the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff Election where Sheriff Joe won by 5% within the CD.

    A.) We see a massive breakthough in House District 20 (Most of Glendale within the District), that was only +9 Flake in '12, and also where there was a significant drop in 'Pub support between the '12 and '16 Presidential Elections, but basically where even in the '16 Pres and '12 Sen election, only 52% voted 'Pub.

    B.) District 21 is starting to look like increasingly marginal 'Pub territory looking at the '12 US SEN results, Trump only capturing 54% in '16, and Sheriff Joe only winning in a squeaker here....

       As I previously stated, it's all about Peoria, Arizona and considering that Sun City didn't swing hard Dem on Sheriff, means that the part of the district in Peoria and Surprise likely played a key role here.

3.) Ok--- thus far we have seen much higher EV numbers come out of the most heavily Republican State Senate District within CD-08 (District 22) and also District 15 (One of the only other overwhelmingly 'Pub Districts), and much lower EV turnout among the handful of Dem leaning districts, and also within the key District 20, where Dem's need to win big in Glendale to make this anything close to a horserace).

4. Now, what do the early voting numbers tell us from CD-08 compared against previous margins from recent key elections?



So, interestingly enough the total Registered Republican vs Registered Democratic vote margins appear to be weakest in the most Republican Districts within CD-08.

The places where Republican vs Democratic EV turnout compared to previous elections is highest compared to total votes are in the most heavily Democratic or potentially Democratic leaning areas (Where there is much higher % of Same Day voting)....

There could be multiple explanations for the significant decline of Republican EV turnout in the most heavily Republican portions of the County, and certainly one could possibly be the explanation that I suggested earlier in this thread, that one can't automatically assume that Independents tend to Lean Democratic in this particular district, which could obviously perhaps explain why there appears to have been a bit of a collapse in the most heavily 'Pub Arizona districts, but that might well be a bit of a stretch.

At this point it's looking like the 'Pub numbers in State Districts (1,15, and 22) are starting to look fairly weak, district 20 (Must win heavily Dem area) strong, plus some relatively favorable early indicators from district 21 (Must flip Dem area)....

To be Updated and Continued accordingly, but still we now have some additional data points to watch the EV in "Real Time" without knowing how Dems/Reps/Indies will breakdown in final voting numbers within the district....

[NOVA Green]

So, started doing a review of some of the demographics of portions of CD-08 to see what if anything that might indicate.

If we look at the preceding information that I posted the other day, the Legislative District 1 portion of CD-08, with generally Democrats only receiving about 30% of the Vote and Republicans generally hitting 65-70%, with the exception of the '16 Sheriff race where it was 40% Dem and 60% Republican.

What is interesting is that despite it being a reliably Republican predominately Unincorporated part of the County, thus far we aren't seeing the Republican Turnout levels, nor turnout advantage that we might expect (This could still all obviously change.)

So here's a map that shows the borders of this area and some basic demographic information (Race/Ethnicity, Median Household Income, % of population 60+ and % of population with 4+ Yr Degrees.



So here several things jump out immediately.... even though this is a Republican stronghold it really isn't that old compared to many other parts of the district. It is generally Pretty Anglo and Upper Middle-Class by income, with a not especially dramatic level of education compared to what one might expect.

Note that the largest precinct within the district by Population, roughly aligns with the Census Data for a tract with a Median Household Income of $102k/Yr,

Also, although the Census tracts don't break down Occupation in as much detail, here is a chart of the Occupations that include the bulk of this portion of CD08.



So here we see an occupation breakdown that leans heavily White Collar and Professional.

Needless to say, these are exactly the types of suburban voters that a Democrat will need to make significant inroads with in order to win the district, considering relative age, occupation, and incomes.

We did see something similar in heavily Republican suburbs of South Allegheny among these types of voters that predominately resisted the major Democratic suburban swings between '12 and '16, so it is not completely out of the question that this could potentially occur within this portion of CD-08.

I would imagine that the Democratic Candidate would need to keep the Republican down to a +10 to +15 point lead in this portion of the district to have a shot at winning in CD-08.

Arizona Legislative District 4:

This is a relatively small sliver of the voting electorate within CD-08 only accounting for 2-3% of the total district vote, and is one of a only a small handful of consistently Democratic voting areas within the district.



Although we don't have a nice occupational chart, we see the occupational sectors skew much for Lower Middle-Class and Working Class occupations such as Sales, Administrative, Food Service and the like and only about 20% of the workforce employed in more "Professional" type occupations such as Management, Business, Computers, Engineering, etc....

So several things stand out here we have a population that includes a significant bloc of Democratic leaning constituencies since this part of the district is only 55% Anglo (Although likely a much larger share of Registered Voters) and a relatively young voting age demographic (32% of the entire population is 18-39 Years).

The key question for Democrats is will the ease of Vote-by-Mail in Arizona, the increased voter registration activities tied to the election to defeat Sheriff Joe, translate into both high turnout levels in the Special Election, and a high level of Democratic support?

There are plenty of other pockets similar to this scattered throughout CD-08 and Democrats will obviously need every vote they can get here.

Right now we're only seeing this Legislative District represent 1.5% of the total Early Vote, far below the 3% from the '16 GE, and Republicans are leaning 37-39% on the EV ballots cast thus far.

Democrats would likely need to hit 60% here to meet benchmarks, with 58% of the voters having rejected Sheriff Joe in November '16.

Will post more on some of the other Legislative Districts when I get a chance....

[NOVA Green]

Arizona Legislative District 13:

This one is a bit tricky since it encompasses a wide range of Political and Demographic terrain, but it is one of those areas where Democrats will need to perform well to contest CD-08, since not only does it account for 8-9% of the total CD-08 Vote Share, and although it is probably the 4th most Republican Legislative District located within CD-08, Flake only received 54% of the vote here in '12, "Sheriff Joe" only won here by 2% in '16, and Trump received "only" 56% of the Vote here in 2016, and ran a few points below his CD-08 average.

So what does the Census and Demographic data tell us about this section of the district?

Note: Some of the Census Data I needed to amalgamate by various Block Tracts to try to get the best possible data, and there were a few precincts within the CD-08 legislative portion of the district where it was either too labor intensive to get the data, so please don't view this as the definitive statement on the demographics of all the CD-08 portions of this Arizona Legislative district.



So where to start? We see a handful of heavily Anglo and older precincts (Pebble Creek & Wigwam stand out), a couple precincts that are borderline Anglo majority with solidly Middle-Class household income levels, and a relatively younger population (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo stand out here), and then we have relatively exurban precincts (Waddell and Alsup) which is a place where I am least confident of the demographic data, since I needed to try to consolidate among multiple Census tracts from Citrus Grove, to a couple slivers of Glendale, and then some of the Uninc areas surrounding that don't have any type of CDP designation.....

Now, what do the election results by precinct show us in 2016 for the Arizona Legislative District 13 part of CD-08?



So we see 43% of the 2016 Sheriff results come out of just three precincts that voted for Sheriff Joe, versus 7 precincts that voted for the Democratic Candidate.

Pebble Creek, which must be a Senior Only Community (88% 60+ Yrs) and is 93% Anglo voted +26% Trump, +14% Sheriff Joe, but was +37% Romney in '12 (+11% Dem Pres Swing) accounted for 21% of the CD-08 AZ District 13 vote in 2016....

So interestingly enough these Upper Middle-Class Seniors (MHI of $65k/Yr in an overwhelmingly retirement community) appear to have swung more Democratic than Maricopa at large in the Presidential Election, while still backing the Sheriff.

Swing Chart by Precinct:



If we look at Wigwam (80% Anglo, 33% 60+) and 19% of CD-08 sections of AZ-LD 13, we see Trump only winning by 10 Points, but going 54-46% Dem for Sheriff.

So it is not inconceivable that Anglo Seniors in CD-08 might potentially swing increasingly Democrat in a Special Election where the Democratic Candidate has been pressing hard on Health Care related issues, where much of the dramatic support for ACA has been coming from Seniors that are digging it now that they see how it actually works for them, while the 'Pubs tried to kill ACA (Thanks to Senator McCain for their failure).

The other major Republican precinct within the district is Waddell (67-26 Trump), and 20% of the 2016 vote within LD 13 portion of CD-08 and also where I am least confident of the demographic data presented....

Although it's not really an "Old folks precinct" per se by Phoenix standards, I strongly suspect that the Anglo proportion of the voters are much higher than demographic data indicates, and that there's something about Desert Rats that want to live outside of any type of Municipal boundaries to lower their tax burden vs those that prefer to live within communities that provide a range of services from water/sewage/garbage/law enforcement, etc....

I don't really pretend to have an angle on this precinct, and it's a bit harder to read than most others within the district.

What about the rest of the Legislative District???

We don't really see much in the way of Democratic strongholds, Luke Field stands out as the only HRC precinct within the district, but I didn't run the demographic numbers here, but has long been the most Democratic precinct within the district even in 2014 for the Gov Election where the Dem candidate captured 43% of the Vote against the 'Pubs 50.7%.

Desert Vista obviously stands out here considering not only is it the least Anglo precinct that I pulled numbers from (48% Anglo, 31% Latino, 8% Black, 7% Asian), but also has the highest Median Household Income of any precinct surveyed $95k/Yr, AND 35% of the population is 18-39 Years old.

This precinct went 45-47 Trump, but 56-43 Dem for Sheriff, 42-57 Romney (+17% Dem Swing), and 45-52 Flake in '12.

Rio Paseo in theory be more Democratic than it is (43-49 Trump) but 54-46 Dem Sheriff, but still had the Highest Dem swing than any other precinct within this portion of district (+15% Dem Pres '12 > '16).

So, there's quite a bit more data out for this portion of CD-08, but one of the key things to look at since we don't really have much in the way of "Ancestral Democratic" places to look at here, are those places which swung hardest Democrat between '12 and '16.

Here we see a mixture of the greatest swings happening to largely Anglo and Senior precincts (Pebble Creek and Wigwam), and those places with the highest concentration of Ethnic Minorities (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo), even though there are significant differences in MHI and Demographics between these two Communities.

Although I still haven't fully processed all of the data compiled yet for this district, it's pretty clear that there is a potential path for a Dem in CD-08 Legislative District 13 that expands upon the gains among Senior Anglos, while simultaneously achieving high voter turnout within those precincts that are ground zero of the "New Emerging Democratic Coalition" within the 'Burbs of Phoenix.

[NOVA Green]

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.

I've been thinking about this post since you first posted it regarding CD-08.  This is certainly a math game that I've been running in my mind for most of the Special Elections that I have covered in more detail (Alabama-Senate & PA-18 spring to mind).

What type of swings might create a winning Democratic number in heavily Trump districts?

In Arizona, we have a ton more detail to work with considering that the State actually provides a much higher level of detail, especially once we start looking at data points such as Party Registration and of course Vote by Mail (VbM) data, which I am well acquainted with as an Oregonian where all of our elections are 100% VbM.

I have a bit of time to think while working my automated line job in the factory while I am just a humble caretaker of the machines, and since I just got off a Mini Vacation for my Wife's B-Day, spent a bit more time than average thinking about updated Election Data for a Monday.

Originally, I was planning to post updated EV numbers by Legislative District (LD) and compare against benchmarks and then maybe add a few updates for the Political Demography for a few other LD percincts located within CD '08, but alas there were no updates today!!!!  

So instead, I decided to take a closer look at the overall turnout numbers within the district to see how well relatively speaking Democrats, Republicans and independents are performing....



So, the obvious starter here is that we see that Republicans overall hold a + 18 R RV "Active Voter" advantage.

Next point we see a PEVL number/percentage, which I believe (And please Atlas crowd-sourcing comrades) correct me if I'm wrong only includes those voters that are eligible for Early Voting.



Ok--- fine dandy and we see that 'Pubs lead +20 % two weeks before the election (Not a particular surprise in this neck of the woods).

Now look carefully at the last two columns and we see that Democrats are tied or slightly ahead of Republicans when it comes to partisan turnout!!!!

The obvious wildcard here is the Independent Vote that has a significantly lower EV "Pre-Approvals" has a much lower voter turnout, but at the same time Indie Turnout appears to be exceptionally high for a Special Congressional Election.

Now--- here's the part that's starting to give me big pause.... although overall turnout is much heavier in Republican Precincts and much lower in what consists of Democratic or potential Democratic flip-precincts, that Registered Democratic voters appear to be more enthused than Republican Voters, even though Democratic Leaning Voters tend to vote much later.\

I haven't really had a chance to delve into the weeds yet, but have inputted data into my spreadsheets by precinct, but here is an official link that shows the overall % voter turnout by precinct.

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/reviewer/default.htm?mapservice=EarlyVotingReturns

IF these numbers are correct, 'Pubs have already cannibalized their EV numbers in their Senior strongholds such as Sun City West and Sun City, OR Seniors 'Pubs in these Communities are turning out in much lower %s than one might expect.

I posited the other day that part of the approval for ACA has occurred especially among Seniors that have grown increasingly accustomed to the concept from the days of the "Death Panels" in '10, and in fact we saw some really interesting swings based upon my precinct level data from Baldwin County, Alabama to the Southwest Pittsburgh 'Burbs of CD-18, that might well indicate that the National 'Pub brand is taking a major hit as a result of their war against ACA.



What is really interesting here within the context of CD-08, is that it potentially appears that there is likely a significant lack of turnout and enthusiasm thus far among traditionally Republican leaning Exurban voters within the district....

These are typically more Middle-Aged Anglo voters with kids in Public Schools, and now an Arizona Teachers Strike is looming because of massive cuts to Public Education under the One Party "Republican" State called Arizona.

These voters are less motivated by partisan ideology than they are by the concept of a functional governing structure that both efficiently provides essential public services and keeps taxes relatively low.

It is interesting to see that in these types of "traditionally" solidly Republican precincts we have not yet seen the types of turnout levels that one might imagine.

Democrats obviously have a huge problem in the "early math" from the district in that thus far overall voter turnout has been anemic in most of the handful of Democratic or Democratic "Anti Sheriff" precincts within CD-08, so obviously GOTV is key if this is going to be anything like the '16 Sheriff Election, where the Dem still lost by +5 % against Sheriff Joe.

Still, as I suggested earlier on a previous post, if Dems somehow win this +23% Trump district, they will need to win Glendale and win it hard....

Ev numbers from Glendale in Legislative District 20 so far look relatively decent for Dems in a +5 % "Anti-Joe" area with overall turnout rates in the 25-30% range in an area where Trump only bagged 52% of the Vote....

Thinking the Dem candidate might need to win this LD 60-40%, not to mention flipping LD-21 by +5% to make this a real horse race.

Ok--- 'nuff for now, but something to put in one's pipe and smoke or vape while we await updated EV results by LD and Party Registration after we get the "weekend Dump" with likely only 8-9 more days of "live action EV returns" before a massive dump on Monday 4/23 (If that) to include all of the last minute voters sending their ballots in by mail so they don't have to deal with the BS of voting in person....

So was planning on doing some election modelling as a final ED % breakdown by Party Registration and what % of voters would be from various parties, how the % of breakdowns would look like by Party to potentially create a 50% +1 map, but I think that will now be saved for another day.

Edit: Dropped the 2016 County Sheriff Numbers from the chart, which is potentially the key indicator to look at within the context of any potential flip within this heavily 'Pub Arizona Congressional District.

2nd Edit: Spreadsheet Filter issues and will update Chart once I get a chance to sort out the spreadsheet data.

[NOVA Green]

OK, here are the charts that I was trying to embed in my post yesterday to look at voter turnout by precincts through the April 5th Update (Yes, I know there is a new one out today, but haven't been able to get into updating the spreadsheet yet).

This includes the TOTAL precinct turnout through the 4/5/18 update for precincts where over 48% of the total ballots have been returned to date.

I sorted by % of ballots already received and color coded on the basis of '16 PRES and '16 Sheriff Margins, with the darker shades of Blue being the most Republican in a CD that went + 23 Trump and only + 5 "Sheriff Joe". The white cells in the PRES margins category are for those areas that voted Trump by less than his CD average.



What do these precincts where the highest level of turnout have been thus far in the Special Election share in common?

They are overwhelmingly Elderly, Anglo and fairly heavily Republican as well as concentrated within a relatively small slice of the CD-08 by Population.

The other common denominator is that they did not really experience the significant swings towards the Democratic opponent to Sheriff Joe, that much of the rest of the district did.

This is part of the reason why I consider them relatively inelastic, although it should be noted that Sun City itself (As opposed to Sun City West) is certainly a place where there might be a potential Democratic swing in '18/'20 in AZ.

Still, to follow to the point that I made yesterday, one must wonder to what extent Republicans have essentially cannibalized their EV margins by front-loading these areas. This means that by logical extension, the overall DEM-REP-IND EV % and ultimately TOTAL election results % will look very different than the current Party turnout %.  (More on that later in a subsequent post).

Which precincts so far have the lowest turnout levels?

Again tried to use a similar kind of coding system and just focus more on the color shading rather than a staggered margin fancy scaling system and all that.



So surprise, surprise precincts that have the lowest Early Voter Turnout levels to date, also happen to correspond to the most Democratic precincts (In General).

Republicans like to vote early and vote often to counterbalance perceived voting fraud from over-represented ethnic minorities....   (JOKE---- couldn't resist so please no offense my 'Pub friends and family out there).

Ok--- now really for the most part this list tends to correlate much more heavily with precincts with higher proportions of younger, Latino, and working-class populations than many other parts of CD-08.

El Mirage is perhaps the most observable, but as you can see from the list there are similar communities scattered all around the district with places in Goodyear and Surprise showing up heavily on the list, not to mention a couple precincts from Peoria.

So.... Arizona CD-08 is a "Tale of Two Districts" where the Older Anglo SoCal and Midwest retiree Republicans have traditionally been a dominant political force, with several newer generations, including the increasingly Multi-Ethnic Millennial Generation that tends to lean Democratic even here, with the Middling Turnout levels of the "Bridging Generation" being where most likely any election in this district will be decided....

(I did not post the 33% of the precincts that I consider to be in that swing category yet, but I'll give y'all of y'alls a hint to anyone that's been following my posts, it really comes down to how heavily key parts of Glendale and Peoria swing--- that are essentially more of your Middle-Aged and Middle-Class majority Anglo precincts, much more likely to have kids in public schools, registered Independents, and most importantly is where if we are going to see the district flip in a Special Election is where Democrats will turn out in high numbers, Republicans might be more likely to flip, and Indies can swing wildly.)

Something to chew on....

[NOVA Green]

So here is an update for the Topline EV numbers by Party for the Special Election....

I slightly rearranged the formatting from my last post on this data that included EV numbers through 4/5/18 by Party Registration.

I hope to continue this update every day or so as we move closer to E-Day.

Quick refresher for anyone that didn't look closely at the first post (Or my text descriptions didn't sufficiently explain the data in some of the Columns in the Spreadsheet....

PEVL= the "pre-approved early voters", so the difference between RV (Total "Active" Registered Voters") vs PEVL is intended to differentiate between the population "eligible" to Vote by Mail, versus the total active voting population (as defined by Arizona statute).

The % of Ballots returned as % of Active/PEVL by Party is essentially designed to track "enthusiasm and Turnout level within the "Party" Base to see what the potential Partisan composition of the electorate will look like, as it changes over the next few weeks.



Ok---- the first thing to notice, is that initially it looks potentially likely that it will an extremely high turnout Special Election....

We already have 26% of the "Active" Registered Voters casting ballots slightly less than two weeks before Election Day (E-Day--- otherwise known as a national Holiday on Atlas)     

Additionally, we already have an astonishing 36% of "Pre-approved" Early voters that have their ballots received as of yesterday, including roughly 40% of both Democratic and Republican EVs alike, as well as 30% of Indies.

Now, many of y'all aren't that familiar with Vote-by-Mail (VbM), but Oregon was the first State to do that decades back, so I'm fairly familiar with it, although not particularly fluent how exactly that has been playing out in AZ, and when one needs to have the ballots received, are there vote drop sites conveniently located in a number of areas, etc....

The largest Vote-By-Mail dumps happens within the last week of the election, especially right around the weekend BEFORE Election Day.

So, confessing my ignorance about the exact mechanics of VbM in AZ....

Obviously for Dem's out there the shift in both the topline % of EV towards the 'Pubs between the 4/5 and 4/10 Updates looks like a negative trend, and certainly if one looks at the % of Votes by RV and PEVL by solely a DEM/REP angle that could send some alarm bells....

DEM's don't hit the PANIC button quite yet and PUB's don't pop that bottle of champaign quite yet...

Overall Dem's have been pacing pretty closely with Pub's on their EV turnout....

Key thing to look at are the Indie PEVL numbers that jumped + 8.1% as a % of TOTAL between 4/5 and 4/11, and now almost 30% of Indie PEVL votes have been "banked" and are starting to catch up with both both DEM & PUB numbers.

IND voters are much more heavily concentrated as "Same Day" voters as opposed to "Early VbM" Voters compared to DEMs and PUBS alike.

Key items to watch are to what extent there is an "Indy Surge" in the last week of EV numbers.... Dem's can naturally take a hit on their overall % of the Vote, IF it starts to sink the Pub EV numbers down to potentially manageable margins depending on exactly how the actual DEM/REP vote % breaks down....

[NOVA Green]

Had planned a much more extensive matrix regarding estimated numbers for TOTAL Vote in AZ CD-08 by Party Registration, but alas left my notebook at work, so needed to post a rudimentary matrix when it comes to what the total numbers might look like in the event of a "High Democratic Election Scene" vs a "Lower Democratic Election Scene".

Although with going through an extremely labor intensive reverse engineering process by precinct, we have virtually no real data regarding how "Self-Identified" Democrats, Republicans, and Independents voted in AZ-08 in the 2016 Presidential Election.

We do have Exit polls for Arizona as a whole that indicates that roughly 7% of "self-identified" Dems and Reps switched parties at the PRES level in '16, and that "self-identified" Independents went +6% Dem.

This data since it not specific to the district, and any serious analyst on Atlas knows how the "Exit Poll" data has serious MOE issues, that this is but a starting point to attempt to create some sort of modeling for a Special Election....

So, I created two definitions:

High Democratic Model = 97% of Democrats in this election vote Dem and 3% Rep
                                  =10% of Republicans vote Dem and 90% Rep
                                  = 60% of Independents vote Dem and 40% Rep

Low Democratic Model=   95% of Dems vote Dem and 5% Rep
                                =   5% of Reps vote Dem and 95% Rep
                                =   55% of Indies vote Dem and 45% vote Rep

We can debate and discuss that all we want, but it seemed at least like a good starting point to run numbers, considering that we can assume that in a Special Congressional Election will tend to "vote their team" with Dems having a bit of an edge compared to what we know from previous Special Elections, AND additionally that Indies, even in a district where they tend to be a bit more 'Pub friendly than many other places, are likely the types of voters that have swung a bit harder against the Party and President in Power....

So, here is a rudimentary chart that shows some rough breakdowns by 2% increments by party Registration and FINAL electoral composition using the "Hi-Low" modelling system as described above.

For example, let's say the current Party Registration stays completely intact through ED and it is a (28 D- 48 R- 23 I) scene we see a "Hi Dem" scene look like a 46.4 D- 53.6 R) win   + 7.2% R

Let's say it is a "LOW DEM" scene based upon the current partisan turnout it looks more like a 44.4%-55.6% Rep Win (+11.2% R).



Now, let's say in what appears to be a relatively high turnout election (We still don't know since right now most of the votes are out from extremely older Anglo and traditionally high turnout Republican precincts), that the model shifts to something more like a (30 D- 42 R- 28 I) after all the ballots are in.

So let's look at the same "Hi-Low Model" we now see a 50.1% Dem Win....

Look at as a "Low Model Dem performance" it shifts to a 46-54 % R Win....

Although, my natural style of political analysis is focus on Micro-Level data based upon already detailed and publicly available Political, Election, and Demographic data, inherently one needs to also examine the Macro-Level data to see the Forest from an aerial view, while also examining the individual groves and ecosystems that make up the forest as well....

We still have a few more weeks to obtain additional data points thanks to the blessing known as Vote by Mail to savor the election in Slo-Mo just like a glass of fine Wine or some nice sipping Whiskey, but I still wouldn't write this special election off yet for either "Team" because of EV VBM's of a population where the average age of those who cast ballots in 65+.

I suspect we have a lot more ballots yet to come over these next few weeks, and wouldn't be surprised to see voter turnout hit 50% once all the ballots are cast....

[NOVA Green]

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Wow, that is A LOT closer than I expected.

You haven't been following my posts closely then obviously....   

Here's one just from late yesterday Night (PST)

"For example, let's say the current Party Registration stays completely intact through ED and it is a (28 D- 48 R- 23 I) scene we see a "Hi Dem" scene look like a 46.4 D- 53.6 R) win   + 7.2% R

Let's say it is a "LOW DEM" scene based upon the current partisan turnout it looks more like a 44.4%-55.6% Rep Win (+11.2% R)."....

I used a "High-Low" Modeling system with "High" being Dems capture 97% of Registered Dems, 10% of Registered Reps, and 60% of Registered Indies. Low Model Dems capture 95% of Registered Dems and 5% of Registered Reps, and +10% of Indie voters....

Now, remember there are a ton of ballots still out there, and thus far it is looking closer to a 2016 Turnout level than a 2014 Turnout level....

Key item to note about this poll is that it says 75% of the 500 people polled said they had already voted, which is obviously not anywhere close to the Turnout Levels in the District.

The EVs are coming from heavily Republican and older precincts, meaning that the MOE among those who have not yet voted, likely approaches the realm of statistically insignificant.

Additionally with this sample size the MOEs of voters by REP/DEM/IND will likely have much larger variance than my Turnout Modeling and Hi/Lo numbers....

Point I'm trying to make here, although it's really cool to actually get a legit poll out of this Special Election, is that we already have a really decent amount of data already at our fingertips to analyze,  strip mine, and harvest....

Several takeaways from this poll:

1.) Party switching among EVs in CD-08 appears to be a bit higher than I had imagined in my Hi-Lo forecast models, regardless of the MOE statement I made earlier.

Considering the heavily Republican Anglo Senior component present in EV, this is potentially especially significant....

As I mentioned on a previous post, the politics of Health Care and Republican attempt to repeal ACA appears to have created:

       A.)  A backlash against Republicans among Senior Citizens
       B.) Increased national polling support for ACA
       C.) Played a role in the Alabama-SEN and PA-18 Special Elections (High Profile)

2.) We have no real idea about the overall voting preferences among the 65-74% of active registered voters that have not yet cast their ballots... (this was a one day poll conducted yesterday and the last update of "ballots received" by Maricopa County was through EOD 4/10). 

*IF* EV voting Seniors are coming close to maxing out their vote banks in places like Sun City, Sun City West, Pebble Creek, and (Insert list of highest turnout precincts) *AND* these voters are only giving the Pub a relatively narrow lead, *THEN* what happens elsewhere?

3.) This poll should actually be relatively worrying for Republicans, especially considering various Turnout Models and vote breakdowns by Party REG, EV vs ED numbers, etc....

4.) *IF* these numbers are accurate the overall margins start to objectively look more like a Sheriff Joe type voting scene in CD-08 (+5% "Joe") in terms of being potentially a +7% R to +2% D District.... The key difference between Sheriff Joe's election in '16 versus this election, is that he was able to HOLD any major swings among Anglo Voters in places like Sun City West, and similar precincts....

If the Dem candidate in CD-08 is outperforming the opponent of the Sheriff, in what I have termed "a relatively inelastic part of the district", Phoenix we have a problem.....

Anyways just my two cents, back to work on some spreadsheets....

[NOVA Green]

So, as I have been saying in various means for a bit, the key to following heavily EV Elections is using the data available regarding RV/EV/ED numbers and Party Registration.... maybe even throw in some precinct numbers if one has time.

So here's a basic spreadsheet that includes not only the RV numbers, but also current EV numbers, as available, and also some potential combinations of DEM-REP-IND voters using the Hi-Low Model described.

THIS is what hypothetical final Election results might look like by Party REG breakdown...

So a "Hi Dem" matrix could easily be a +/- 2.5% WIN for either Party, and even a "LO-DEM" Model would still only be a +8-12% Pub Win....

More to come later....

[NOVA Green]

So what types of breakdown should be looking for on Election Eve in AZ CD-08 (4/23) in terms of updated EV numbers by Party Registration to tell us if this might be closer to a horse-race or a +6-10% Rep win?

I've already provided some estimates as to how the Total Final Partisan breakdown might likely play out once all the ballots are cast with ranges of respective "Hi-DEM" and "LO-DEM" by final registered party composition to include a variety of plausible scenarios.

We will have a much better idea of how this will go down the day before the election, when we will likely see our last EV vote dump by Party Reg.

Key item that I'm not sure of here is if we will have the data on ballots already dropped off rather than mailed in prior to election day, so perhaps someone can help me out on this, since my current understanding is that this is NOT included in the EV breakdown by registration reports that I'm currently polling.

This can obviously make a HUGE difference when it comes to modeling the partisan composition of the electorate for those ballots already cast but NOT showing up on current reports.

So, at this point the special election in AZ is forecast as something like ~330k total votes once all the results are counted, although this might drop a few notches.

2016 GE EV Turnout (Which presumably includes the "drop off" ballots prior to Election Day was around 80% "EV turnout".

Currently my concept is we'll use 80% as a benchmark for the EV/ED numbers, since we won't have all of the data for the late surge of EV numbers over the Pre-Election weekend.

So once we pull the last numbers available of Partisan breakdown of the electorate, how many votes "are already in the bank", and what % of the "Same Day" votes would the Democratic Candidate need to capture to create a marginal win, since the final push on GOTV might well be the make/break point with more infrequent and likely Dem voters?

I introduced a "Blended Model" for Election Eve Models for Party Registration, since the "HI-LO" Dem model doesn't account for what might be minor shifts in Voter shifts by Party REG, Indies flips etc...

Although we had a recent poll of CD-08 that appears to indicate over 10% of Dems and Pubs alike are switching Parties for this election, with Indies going +12 Dem, I'm still a bit skeptical about the MOEs involving party REG, especially considering that this is a relatively older CD by population, AND we haven't really seen evidence of the types of elasticity within this CD to justify changing models based upon one poll.



So here we see a bit of range of potential options, from the RV High Indie numbers, to the mostly current EV numbers to date, and then throwing in some additional models involving Dem numbers ranging from 28-30% and Pub numbers 42-46% on election eve....

If Dems are sitting on a 30-46-24 Model come election eve, it starts to look dicey for 'Pubs.

28-46-26 Model starts to look a bit tougher for Dems...

28-44-28 Model is actually relatively close to the previous model, but slightly more Dem, and both look potentially achievable in the "Mid-Dem Hybrid Model"

28-42-30 is looking fairly more favorable to Dems, and I would be worried as the Pub if I saw these numbers on election eve....

Bottom line Mid Level numbers look potentially achievable for Dems in these Election Eve scenarios (60% of ED Vote).

Take this data for what it's worth, but essentially is an evolving tool that I'm working on to provide us with a greater Macro level understanding of what the potential scenarios we might be looking at come Election Eve....

[NOVA Green]

Let's look at the latest updates for AZ-08 by Arizona Legislative Districts.

Not to play Devil's Advocate with myself, but although the overall math creates various options for a Dem win in the CD, we now have the results for an additional week worth of EV returns....

'Pubs have actually gained in overall vote share compared to Dems within CD-08, and additionally within most LD's located within the district....

Although many of these changes are around the margins, obviously Dems would need to see a bit of a drop in REG PUB % of EVs to make this race closer to a "Jump Ball" scenario, otherwise known as Toss-Up within Political speak....



However the data is not all bad for Dems:

1.) We are finally starting to see a visible drop-off in the most 'Pub LD located within the District (LD-22) where it now only accounts for 40% of the EVs reported within the district....

This was part of the 'Pubs cannibalizing EVs in heavily Anglo, Republican, and Senior communities around Sun City West.

I would imagine that LD-22 would have to drop down to about 35-37% of the total CD-08 Vote to make this a close election.

2.) LD-20 (Most of Glendale within CD-08) has now jumped from 6.8% to 7.4% of the CD-08 TV Share. vs ~9% in '16. THIS is obviously one of the key places for a DEM win in CD-08 since it went +5% DEM against Sheriff Joe vs +5 % REP in CD-08 at large in '16.

3.) LD-21 as I mentioned on a previous post: "How will it play in Peoria"  we see pretty much averaging out to date... If the DEM Can for CD-08 will win, she will need to flip this CD by a few points.

4.) We are starting to see turnout pickup in the mostly Dem LD sections of the district, which is def a positive sign for supporters of the Democratic Candidate...

Obviously these numbers need to pick up significantly by Election Day in order to bag some extra votes to overtake the 'Pub margins elsewhere in the district.

[NOVA Green]

Arizona LD-15 precincts located within CD-08: Social and Political Geography:

Continuing my series on the political and social demographics of CD-08, it's time to take a look at this district, which basically includes six precincts located within the City of Phoenix and accounts for roughly 6% of the total CD-08 vote in a typical General Election.



As we can see from looking at the demographic information by precinct, the fundamental characteristics of this district tend to skew fairly Middle-Aged, with a relatively small Senior population compared to many other parts of the district, Upper Income and Upper Middle-Class, fairly well educated, and a bit more Anglo than the district at large.

Politically, it tends to lean fairly reliably Republican:

2016 Pres: +24 Trump       (+6% D Swing)
2012 Pres: +30 Romney
2012 SEN:  +24 Flake

However, in the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff race, it was only 48-52 Republican.

Several obvious points here, is that this is exactly the type of area where a Democratic candidate will need to perform well to make this a competitive election since these are precisely the types of voters that thus far in Maricopa County have been resistant to voting Democratic, even as many similar areas in the Country swung heavily towards HRC in 2016.

Let's take a look at how these six precincts voted in the 2016 General Election, as well as Turnout thus far in the 2018 Special Election, AND the 2012 PRES and SEN races....





Thus far we see the most Democratic precinct (Julie) with the lowest % of ballots returned to date for LD-15. This was the only precinct here to vote against Sheriff Joe, and where Trump only received 51% of the vote in 2016, and logically a place where one might expect a Democrat to perform fairly well within this election, considering it skews younger with a relatively large Minority component. Here we have the highest % of 3rd Party defections in 2016, with 10% supporting LIB, GRN, WI, etc.... This same precinct mirrors the overall 2012 to 2016 PRES swings within CD-08 LD-15 (+5% D), so is potentially a good composite of the precinct to look at as we move deeper into 2018, although 3rd Party defections likely played a major role in the numbers being much lower for HRC than the overall precinct profile might suggest.

Julie RV: (26 D- 38 R- 34 I)

The next lowest share of turnout is Creedence, which although it is also heavily younger in population, is much more Anglo than Julie, and also fairly Republican, excepting the '16 Sheriff Race. It is slightly less Republican than most of the other precincts in this portion of the LD, and the only place to swing towards Trump in 2016, which was likely mainly a result of 8% of voters defecting to 3rd Party Candidates.

RV: (22 D- 45 R- 31 I)

Now, lets shift focus to a couple other precincts where we are seeing the highest level of Turnout to date within CD-08 LD-15:

Pyramid Peak:

Accounted for 28% of the vote here in 2016, making it the largest precinct by vote share.

The wealthiest precinct within the district as measured by MHI, with a Median Household Income of $ 108k/Yr, 38% of the Population with at least a 4+ Yr College Degree,and also the 2nd largest Asian-American population within this portion of LD-15 (7%)....

Traditionally heavily Republican and current voter turnout is 37% (2nd Highest within LD-15), is also one of two precincts where we saw the greatest PRES swing '12 > '16 (+9.5% Dem).

As I suggested on previous posts on this thread, places where we saw the greatest '12> '16 Dem swings within CD-08, as well as places where we saw the greatest Trump/ Sheriff Joe swings, might well be the types of places where if a Dem will win an election in CD-08.

RV: (22 D- 48 R- 30 I)

Desert Sage:

This precinct is the one where I am least confident in the Demographic profile, because of US Census tract data doesn't cleanly overlap the way it does in the other precincts here.

Still, the basic demographic profile indicates that it has the 2nd lowest Anglo population within LD-15 (72% Anglo) and the highest Asian-American population (11%)....

Looks to be heavily Middle-Class and Middle-Aged voters with an extremely low proportion of the population aged 60+.

The biggest swings between the PRES numbers '12>'16 occurred here, with a +9.8% Dem swing.

Overall voter turnout to date skews towards the Middle Range of Ld-15 to date, AND it was "Sheriff Joe's" 2nd best precinct (+5.3% R).

It was the most Pub precinct in the '14 Governor race, the most Pub precinct in the '12 Pres race and Flake grabbed 63% of the vote in the '12 SEN race.

Really curious about this precinct, (Although honestly I'm always curious about most precincts in the US), because it is a bit unusual for CD-08 in many ways....

RV: (21 D- 48 R- 30 I)

OK--- we have two precincts left to check on with the Socio-Demographic data overlapped with Electoral Data....

Happy Valley:

The most 'Pub precinct in the '16 PRES GE election (30-64 Trump, 46-54 R Sheriff,). Also the 2nd most Pub precinct in '12, and most Pub precinct in the '12 US-Sen race.

The 2nd wealthiest precinct when it comes to Median Household Income ($104k/Yr). The highest % of population aged 60+ Yrs (24%), and the 2nd highest precinct with people that have a 4+ Year College Degree....

We see the highest % Turnout to Date within the LD, considering that it is the oldest is perhaps not surprising.

We also see only a +2.5% D PRES swing between '12 > '16, with only a 6% 3rd Party defection in '16.

Keep watching the turnout here, since it's one of those places where apparently the older Anglos are extremely heavily Republican, AND the upper-income Middle-Aged Anglos are also not especially "swingy" either.

RV: (21 D- 52 R- 26 I)

Lindner:

The last precinct within the district is a weird hybrid, with the Northern half of the precinct looking much more like Julie, and the Southern half appears to be one of those "Senior Only" type Phoenix area suburban places....

The Northern portion of the precinct tends to be much more Latino than the Southern Portion, and although the overall precinct MHI of $66.5k makes it look like more of Middle-Class community, the reality is that once you factor in the Senior Population the data starts to get murkier.

Overall this precinct looks like one of the least "Trump friendly precincts" (57.9% Trump), and one of the lowest '12>'16 Dem swings (+1.6%), but actually the 2nd best precinct for the Dem running against Sheriff Joe.

The key question here is the balance between the Senior Voters to the South and more varied demographic landscape to the North....

RV: (24 D- 44 R- 31 R)

Wish we had more data points to work with when it comes to a competitive Dem race in CD-08, but hey got to work with what we got, right?



To be continued with LD-20 (Must win big for a DEM in CD-08)....

[NOVA Green]

So my two cents on this poll vs the Predictive Insights/ ABC15 Poll:

1.) The Predictive Insights / ABC Poll was based upon a Voter Model that used traditional Early Voting in Midterm Elections Voter Model... meaning 75% of those polled in the One-Day poll has already said they had voted.

The problem with that model, is that the initial indicators of THIS election, appear to indicate that turnout will be closer to 2016 than to the 2014 General Election (Although this is obviously subject to flux as we watch incoming ballot returns to try to create a Final estimated turnout model), but at the point where the poll was conducted, we were seeing maybe only 35-40% of the ballots in compared how this election turnout level currently appears to be trending.

A.) As I posted earlier on this thread based upon precinct level turnout data the initial surge of early votes was from the "usual places" that tend to vote early in Arizona, and have a disproportionate share of the early ballot returns (Hint: Think Sun City West, Sun City, and similar heavily Senior Anglo retirement precincts elsewhere within CD-08).

B.) This appears to be more representative of the 28 D- 48 R- 24 I Early Vote Numbers that were essentially most of the initial wave of vote dumps close to when the poll was conducted....

Maybe that model is closer to the final numbers and Independent Voters are a much lower share of the electorate than their Party Registration, in which case obviously the math becomes a bit more difficult for Democrats, as they become more dependent upon holding Democratic Voters, and maximizing Republican cross-overs.

2.) Emerson Poll:

A.) It appears here we are looking much more at a weighted RV model than an LV model here....

Voter Registration by Party, Ethnicity, etc seem to be a bit skewed compared to what we might look at as a typical "Off-Year" GE Turnout model....

This model looks more like a (24 D- 40 R- 36 I) so in many ways perhaps overcompensates for the likely under representation of Independent Voters in the Predictive Insights Model"

B.) Obviously the RV Model doesn't appear currently representative of the EV numbers we have seen to date....

The current EV numbers are more like one might expect from a "Base Election" and Turnout Model where both Registered Democrats and Republicans are voting early in high numbers, within a heavily eVBM (Early Vote-by-Mail) state....

Problem is that as several astute observers of changing patterns of VbM in AZ are reporting, it appears that voters are tending to vote earlier than they did four years back....  This leaves us with a huge problem when trying to create final turnout models when it comes to a state that reports EV by Party REG, in a district, where we really we don't have much recent political data to show what a potential Democratic Win might look like (Other than the relatively close '16 County Sheriff Race, and a few local elections for Maricopa County School Superintendent and the like (Which actually I might want to consider pulling precinct level numbers from considering Education is currently the #1 issue for voters in the District according to this poll).

C.) Education and Health Care are particularly interesting as the primary issues that voters are concerned about, considering that there is a brewing Teachers Strike in Arizona, and Senior Citizens have been a major factor behind the dramatic support for ACA since the 'Pubs tried and failed to repeal it just a few short months back....

This could definitely shuffle up the map a bit, since although there were significant swings against Sheriff Joe, even in heavily Trump '16 precincts, these tended to be the more Upper Middle-Class Areas, and NOT the most heavily Senior Citizen precincts within CD-08 where there were much more marginal swings....

3.) I see issues with both polling models, but feel the sympathy and pain of any professional trying to create a polling model for this district:

A.) Inherently ANY polling of CD elections has high MOE and low Confidence Intervals... period end of sentence.

B.) We don't have an easy turnout model for a district where voting habits have rapidly shifted between '08 and '18, especially in places where traditionally in "off-year elections" the Early Senior Vote has basically been the "Go-To standard.

C.) I am still incredulous about the insane cross-over voters in BOTH polling models.... The first one I chalked up to MOE among sub-samples among a small sample size.... the second poll, I'm looking at this and saying ok--- now IS the DEM/REP cross-over by party REG nearly as insane as both polls appear to suggest, or are talking more about "Self-Identification" Models of polling where many REG Indies are "Self-Identifying as Dem or Rep".

4.) My High Dem Model was among REG DEMs (97 D-3 R), REG REPS (10 D-90 R), IND (60 D- 40 R).

My LO-DEM Model was among REG DEMs (95 D- 5 R), REG REPS (5 D- 95 R), IND (55 D- 45 R).

Ultimately we already have a huge database, and as we get closer to election, we will likely have a better idea of the D-R-I % of Total Vote breakdown, AND as we look at individual precinct turnout levels might have a better idea of how this might all shakedown.

5.) Although I'm not sure if I'll be around on Election Day when the results first start to come in, thinking of taking a few hours of PTO to leave work a few hours early to be able to participate relatively live to provide whatever limited insights I might have available (Confess my complete personal ignorance of this district for the most part.)

[NOVA Green]

Yes, it's a Republican district but let's wait until we see what happens next Tuesday before we start writing the postmortem.

That's quite an understatement.

Perhaps one of the most interesting things about this district, is that not only is it a heavily Registered Republican district, but additionally a heavily Registered Independent district (Just narrowly on the coattails of the 'Pubs when it comes to RV), AND Dem's place a distant 3rd in terms of Party REG.

Problem for the Dems in this CD, as I believe I posted a few weeks back is that "I wouldn't automatically assume that Independents in this district vote heavily Democrat".

Now, the most curious thing for me is that now we have multiple polls showing extreme Party REG cross-over vote, which initially I had discounted the first time around as an "outlier" and Party REG sub-sample MOEs swing within a CD Special Election....

All of this conducive to much larger swings on the sub-samples than might stand up to a rigorous statistical analysis and would likely fall under the 95% Confidence Interval, and even those about that would have might large MOE numbers to attempt to discern the difference between a +0% Race vs a +10% R WIN.

My initial assumptions regarding a potential DEM win in CD-08 have used the only real template available where the DEMs ever came close to flipping this CD, which was the 2016 County Sheriff Race.

Note that in the '16 Maricopa County Sheriff's race within the precincts of CD-08, Sheriff Joe won heavily on the basis of heavily Senior Citizen precincts in places like Sun Valley West, Sun Valley, Pebble Creek, Citrus Village, etc....

However, the key theme of the '16 Maricopa County Sheriff's race inherently involved two major issues:

A. Immigration:

1.) Hard-line and excessively Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric that seemed to have alienated many of the traditionally Upper and Middle Class Anglos with in the district among Middle Aged Anglos.

2.) Heavily Senior Precincts in CD-08 appear to have still heavily supported the Sheriff, despite larger swings than usual in Upper/Middle-Class Anglo Precincts against the Sheriff that tend to be more Middle-Aged Anglos.

B. Corruption

This was likely the Achilles Heel of "Sheriff Joe"....

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/the-long-lawless-ride-of-sheriff-joe-arpaio-20120802

http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/criminal-enterprise-a-culture-of-corruption-pervades-joe-arpaios-office-affecting-everyone-in-maricopa-county-7383399

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/08/30/was-former-arizona-sheriff-joe-arpaios-criminal-conviction-an-obama-political-witch-hunt/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.52179716daab

C.)

1.) "Immigration" related issues tended to outweigh "Corruption" issues in heavily Anglo Senior precincts within CD-08.

2.) "Corruption" related issues tended to much more heavily outweigh "immigration" issues in many of the Upper Middle-Class Middle-Aged Anglo precincts within CD-08, as well as potentially being a major factor in those precincts with a higher % of Latino and Younger Voters.

D.) I'm really starting to wonder to what extent we are seeing "Health Care" emerge as a proxy for Anglo Seniors, "Education" emerge as a proxy for Upper Middle-Class Anglos.

E.) Still not sold on the concept that this a Toss-Up election, but obviously a mixture of swings among the Anglo Senior Pop towards the Dem Candidate (Compared to Sheriff Joe '16 numbers), and then maybe some small swing backs towards the "Mod 'Pub" Cd-08 Candidate might explain some of these weird Party swing numbers....

F.) Indies are KEY in this CD and regardless of their overall Final Voter Turnout Numbers, obviously there is HUGE variance when you run from a 55-45 D, to a 60-40 D, to even potentially a 65-35 D.

Will there voter turnout share rise significantly come next Tuesday?

[NOVA Green]

Slightly Off-Topic, but why did this thread view count shoot up + 2k views within the past 3-4 days?

Never really seen that kind of a % jump that quickly on Atlas, and could be Atlas Posters constantly refreshing, external viewers checking in on what we are all talking about, or hell knows even the FSB and Putin checkin' in on what we're all talking about....

Anyways.... carry on keep calm, but extremely interesting to see all of this outside attention on just the past couple days since a few new polls came out on CD-08.....

[NOVA Green]

So we have some new EV Turnout numbers by Party Registration and PEVL Votes (Those voters pre-approved) to Vote-by-Mail) that includes data from Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, that was just updated today on the election website.

We're now up to ~ 144k Total Votes, or roughly 1/3 of the Registered Voters within CD-08.

The AZ Data Guru has been a bit over the map on turnout models, but currently has it at around 50% of the final total votes (280k Total Turnout), but posted a graph today as to why the uncertainty in total estimated voter turnout numbers.....

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer

If we look at the PEVL voters, already 45% of those that received Mail-in Ballots have them returned and "in the bank"!!!

Roughly 70% of Registered Voters have Mail-in-Ballots and 30% can only vote same-day, hence my multiple previous statements on this thread that we should have a much clearer idea of the potential partisan composition of the electorate by Election Eve Monday.



Now, the key thing to note here is that thus far, both Registered Democratic and Republicans appear to have already delivered 50% of their respective mail-in-base to the polls, whereas Indies are lagging at 37%.....

Another way of looking at it is that Dems basically have 34k Mail-In-Ballots outstanding, Pubs 72k, and Indies 65k!!!!

Obviously Dems should hope that these Indy Ballots start surging towards the endgame, and aggressively target various precincts and locations with last minute GOTV efforts in places where that would likely net a favorable outcome, since in a straight up DEM-REP fistfight in CD-08 with weak Indy voting, the math becomes increasingly problematic.

Time to look at EV voting numbers to date by LD...



So here we have perhaps a better sense of the changes within the state of the election a week after we started to get our first surge of early ballots....

The key item that I look at are the changing overall Vote Share between LD-20 and LD-22 precincts located within CD-08....

LD-22 generally accounts for the Largest chunk of CD-08 Voters (35% in '16 and 37% in the off-year '14 election).

It not only the largest LD within CD-08 by Vote Share, but also the 2nd most Republican District.....

LD-22 Vote shares within CD-08 have dropped from 42% to 40% between 4/5 and 4/17 posting numbers....

This is likely because of the early "vote banking" from overwhelmingly Republican Sun City West (Elderly overwhelmingly Anglo Upper Middle Class retirees marketed to SoCal Seniors thinking of making a move to Phoenix....)

The fact that these shares continue to drop is obviously an extremely positive sign for the Democratic Contender, considering that unless something completely bizarre happens like a +10 D win, THIS will be the CD-08 'Pub Firewall to protect against major Indy swings elsewhere...

This is why I monitor by LD as a Macro Level overview in the fast moving data flow of VbM elections....

We are now seeing LD-20 starting to getting closer to catching up with their 9% Vote Shares in the '16 and '14 GEs....

This is significant, since as I mentioned previously, this is a place where DEMs need HUGE % margins and Turnout to make this election close.

Meanwhile, what I consider the likely decided factor is LD-21 (26-28% of LD-08), hence my previous "How Will it Play in Peoria" references, that in many ways is this is really the closest thing to a "Swing District" within LD-08....

Current EV numbers are actually closely tracking historical patterns as a total district vote share.....

Trump only received 54% of the PRES vote here in '16, and Sheriff Joe only received 50.3% of the Vote in '16....  AND Flake only captured 52% of the Vote in '12.....

Although we don't have much in the way of objective modeling when it comes to D-R-I historical results, THIS is the LD that will likely provide the make-break for either the DEM or PUB in CD-08....

[NOVA Green]

Media attention is starting to heat up within the past 24 Hours from various publications with a wider political reach...

The Economist:

https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2018/04/mind-gap

Roll Call:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/arizonas-special-election-heads-into-home-stretch

Open Secrets:

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/04/dark-money-group-backs-lesko-in-arizona-08-special/

NYMAG

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/04/new-az-poll-shows-another-special-election-upset-is-possible.html

Vox:

https://www.vox.com/2018/4/16/17176258/arizona-special-election-trent-franks-hiral-lesko

So, although much of the information on these articles are likely familiar to many of y'all regular Atlas Posters, it still provides some basic information, context, and "media framing and narratives" for both veteran posters, recent registered Atlas posters, "lurkers" in my perspective being people that view Atlas in "Free Mode" without creating an account, and for anyone that interested in studying the intersections of "Politics and the Media".