AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[LimoLiberal]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?

Do you happen to have the partisanship breakdown of the AZ-08 early vote in 2016?

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/JonSeaton18/status/983885802223517696

Watch this video: https://t.co/d83qbpCHgn

Likely R --> Titanium R

[LimoLiberal]

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

[LimoLiberal]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: New Emerson Poll (they had a previous poll last week showing Tiperneni +1)

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/988398865329115136

Tiperneni (D) - 43 (-3)
Lesko (R) - 49 (+4)

Fits very well with the Democrats losing ground on the generic ballot.

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: New Emerson Poll (they had a previous poll last week showing Tiperneni +1)

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/988398865329115136

Tiperneni (D) - 43 (-3)
Lesko (R) - 49 (+4)

Fits very well with the Democrats losing ground on the generic ballot.

Can yall mods do something useful and ban Andrew yet

I was unaware that losing a district by Arpaio-Penzone numbers constituted a disaster.

1. I'm not Andrew.
2. When did I say it would be a disaster to lose it by 6 points? I think that would be a great result for Democrats (15 point swing).

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: New Emerson Poll (they had a previous poll last week showing Tiperneni +1)

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/988398865329115136

Tiperneni (D) - 43 (-3)
Lesko (R) - 49 (+4)

Fits very well with the Democrats losing ground on the generic ballot.

Can yall mods do something useful and ban Andrew yet

I was unaware that losing a district by Arpaio-Penzone numbers constituted a disaster.

1. I'm not Andrew.
2. When did I say it would be a disaster to lose it by 6 points? I think that would be a great result for Democrats (15 point swing).

You are lying regarding number one

Virginia? Is there any way I can prove that I'm not this Andrew guy? Because it's getting annoying.

[LimoLiberal]

Sorry, Limo. Time for a ratings change in a certain state, I guess.

Joke's on you cause' I actually like Heitkamp


No, but this is actually the most scary result for Republicans in any congressional election this cycle. No reason Lesko should only win by 3-4. House majority is probably gone.

[LimoLiberal]

Anybody know when the election day votes start trickling in?

Anyways, if you look at the statistics tonight was a great night. But it also kind of burns that we were a few hundred votes from having two more state legislative pickups (AD-102 and 107) and we're going to lose by 4ish points in Arizona.

[LimoLiberal]

Again, does anybody know when the election day vote starts trickling in?

[LimoLiberal]

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?

Oh my god. And they have Nate Cohn tweeting about how it's the worst congressional special result for Republicans so far. Get your sh*t together.

[LimoLiberal]

I want my election day votes. Then I can watch Westworld and go to bed.

[LimoLiberal]

Reminder that all the pundits have AZ-06 as safe R, yet have AZ-09 as only likely D. Lollllll

'

The pundits are pretty spot on in certain states but horrible in Arizona.