Canadian Election Results Thread
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DL
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« Reply #825 on: May 20, 2011, 09:53:39 AM »

In 416 the NDP grabbed all its low hanging fruit - even the two seats in Scarborough that most would have regarded as "high-hanging fruit" - but i can already see what seats in Toronto the NDP will almost certainly target next time due to good demographics (ie: low incomes and lots of visible minorities) and good showings in this election despite relatively weak local campaigns. In all likelihood in 2015 the NDP will be like vultures pecking even more chunks from the Liberals carcass - they will heavily target Toronto Centre (I expect rae will have retired by then), the two Scarbouogh seats they did not win and also Etobicoke North and York West and maybe even Don Valley East - all ridings that have drastically evolved demographically and which were once seen to be middle class suburbia and are now very downscale areas that are mostly populated by Somalis and South Asians and Afro-Canadians etc...

Of course there will be a redistribution between now and 2015 - and who knows what the new boundaries will look like. Right now both Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre are very overpopulated. I wouldn't be surprised if Rosedale gets removed from TC - turning TC into a rding tailor made for the NDP.
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Holmes
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« Reply #826 on: May 20, 2011, 05:00:09 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2011, 05:38:41 PM by Holmes »

Rae seems to be a good fit for Toronto Centre, but I definitely agree that the NDP can win it if he's out. Seems like the NDP is becoming the party of the old city, definitely so if the Liberals continue to be shut out. But as for Etobicoke North and York West, I see them voting Tory before the NDP. That part of the city has more in common with the 905 than the rest of the city.

Of course, 2015 is quite a while away too.

edit: I was looking through some old articles, and Roll Eyes. The largest newspaper in Timmins-James Bay, and my city's own, is such a Conservative shill. link. They seem to be under the impression that the only issue affecting people in Northern Ontario is the long-gun registry, and not things such as a declining forestry industry, losing 700 local jobs due to the closing of Xstrata Copper, threats to our vast lakes and forests, and a negligent federal and provincial government. It's no wonder why every other party other than the NDP gets shut out here, they think we're single issue voters who care more about guns than livelihood. Idiots.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #827 on: May 20, 2011, 06:17:19 PM »

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.
Where exactly am I wrong?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Old_Toronto_locator.png

It doesn't correspond so neatly to current riding boundaries; significant parts of Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West are south of the line.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #828 on: May 20, 2011, 07:41:06 PM »

25% of DVW is East York maybe.
25%-33% of Egl-Law is Toronto.

Both are majority North York.
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« Reply #829 on: May 20, 2011, 10:48:22 PM »


edit: I was looking through some old articles, and Roll Eyes. The largest newspaper in Timmins-James Bay, and my city's own, is such a Conservative shill. link. They seem to be under the impression that the only issue affecting people in Northern Ontario is the long-gun registry, and not things such as a declining forestry industry, losing 700 local jobs due to the closing of Xstrata Copper, threats to our vast lakes and forests, and a negligent federal and provincial government. It's no wonder why every other party other than the NDP gets shut out here, they think we're single issue voters who care more about guns than livelihood. Idiots.

lulz. Angus did suffer a bit, and Tony Martin a lot (did he flip flop too?), but that article was seeming to think a barber shop poll would be accurate? Where was this barber shop? Timmins? Good chance Timmins didn't even go NDP, or at least not where this barber show is. (Timmins is the most anti-NDP part of the district)
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EarlAW
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« Reply #830 on: May 20, 2011, 11:02:58 PM »

Donations map:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/carte-des-contributions-aux-partis-politiques/
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DL
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« Reply #831 on: May 20, 2011, 11:30:36 PM »

Seems like the NDP is becoming the party of the old city, definitely so if the Liberals continue to be shut out. But as for Etobicoke North and York West, I see them voting Tory before the NDP. That part of the city has more in common with the 905 than the rest of the city.


If you've ever actually been to Etobicoke North or York West - you would see that they are actually two of the poorest ridings in all of Ontario. Etobicoke North is largely run-down high rises built in the 60s that are mostly inhabited by Somalis and Sikhs and York West is the Jane-Finch corridor which is overwhelmingly Black housing projects. They are a teeny bit like the similarly poor and very visible minority 905 riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton that almost went NDP and they are a lot like the Scarborough seats that went NDP.

When people talk about "905-land" as in the areas that went heavily Tory in this election - they don't mean run-down apartment complexes inhabited by recent immigrants and visible minorities and people with low incomes. They mean places like Thornhill and Oakville and much of Mississauga and Markham and Richmond Hill where you have a lot of big detached single family homes and people with upper middle class incomes.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #832 on: May 21, 2011, 12:11:51 AM »

Seems like the NDP is becoming the party of the old city, definitely so if the Liberals continue to be shut out. But as for Etobicoke North and York West, I see them voting Tory before the NDP. That part of the city has more in common with the 905 than the rest of the city.


If you've ever actually been to Etobicoke North or York West - you would see that they are actually two of the poorest ridings in all of Ontario. Etobicoke North is largely run-down high rises built in the 60s that are mostly inhabited by Somalis and Sikhs and York West is the Jane-Finch corridor which is overwhelmingly Black housing projects. They are a teeny bit like the similarly poor and very visible minority 905 riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton that almost went NDP and they are a lot like the Scarborough seats that went NDP.

When people talk about "905-land" as in the areas that went heavily Tory in this election - they don't mean run-down apartment complexes inhabited by recent immigrants and visible minorities and people with low incomes. They mean places like Thornhill and Oakville and much of Mississauga and Markham and Richmond Hill where you have a lot of big detached single family homes and people with upper middle class incomes.

I live in York West. I take the 106 bus every day that goes up and down Sentinel. My visual observations would indeed place this portion of the riding as one of the "black"ist areas of the city.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #833 on: May 21, 2011, 08:56:46 AM »

Most of the area covered by Etobicoke North was NDP at a provincial level for ages. Of course the immigrants that lived there then have been replaced with ones who are... perhaps somewhat less automatically conductive to voting for a social democratic party. Still. The NDP have just shown that they can win the votes of non-Anglo immigrant communities in Toronto, so that particularly frustrating genie is out of its bottle...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #834 on: May 23, 2011, 12:26:31 AM »

Assuming the Liberal vote collapses which I think is a big "if" at this point as with over half of the NDP caucus being from Quebec, many being young and inexperienced, and the fact Quebec can swing en masse towards a party and then take it away next election, I think it is a bit premature to predict the demise of the Liberals yet. 

In Toronto, Scarborough Centre is the only Tory held riding I think the NDP has a good shot at.  Don Valley East is possible, but you would need a much stronger swing.  It is somewhat of a mixed riding and includes demographics that are favourable to the NDP, but also those for the Tories.

As for the Liberal ridings, I agree Toronto Centre looks good for a pickup and in fact if it weren't for Rosedale it might already be NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown here.  Although since more live outside Rosedale then inside I could see Rosedale going heavily Tory while the NDP winning the rest of the riding.  Markham-Unionville is a 905 riding so if the Liberals lose this, it would be to the Tories.  Besides if BC politics is any indication the Chinese community tends to lean more right than left unlike the South Asian community.  Scarborough-Guildwood, we will need to await the poll by poll breakdowns since although the NDP did well here, the lakefront areas are more wealthy so if those are already going Tory, then a good sign for the NDP, but if the Liberal strength is still in this region, then not so much.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #835 on: May 23, 2011, 12:32:21 AM »

Continuing the last post, Scarborough-Agincourt seems also more favourable to the NDP than Tories, but for whatever reason, Jim Karygiannis is very popular in his riding despite the fact he is a complete sleazebag.  A lot will depend on whether he runs again or not.  If he runs again, I think the Liberals will hold out, but if not then it is anybody's guess.

In terms of Etobicoke North, that is a tough one.  Has a large immigrant community and is fairly working class in contrast with the other two Etobicoke ridings where the NDP has almost no chance at winning.  By the same token, it went solidly for Rob Ford in the last municipal election, it went PC provincially in both 1995 and 1999 and the Tories federally have consistently been in second place, so could go either way if you ask me.

York West definitely favours the NDP over the Tories by a wide margin.  This includes York university and the Jane and Finch area.  Also the Tories usually only get in the teens or low 20s at best.  Yes, I know it borders Tory ridings like York Centre and Vaughan and Thornhill which the Tories won by a landslide, but the demographics of those ridings is quite different so I don't think you can assume the Tory strength will spillover here.  Those are all middle class ridings and mostly white and the 30% visible minority population they have is mostly middle class.  By contrast, York West is 70% visible minority and one of the poorest ridings in Canada, never mind it has the university which probably helps the NDP too.  Also the Tories have made strong inroads amongst the Jewish community and to a lesser extent the Italian community, but both have a large middle class community.  This riding lacks this.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #836 on: May 23, 2011, 12:38:15 AM »

Finally there is St. Paul's which is probably the toughest to predict.  One of the wealthiest ridings in Canada so should favour the Tories, but has the highest percentage of those with university degrees which is bad news for the Tories so tough to call.  Sort of like Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre out West which stayed Liberal despite being obliterated in the West and considering the Liberals only got 13% and I doubt they will fall below that in Ontario, I would guess this will stay Liberal as long as the party continues to exist.  Also similiar to Montgomery County in Maryland and Manhattan and San Francisco which all vote heavily Democrat but I doubt they would go for a social democratic party.  They are otherwise liberal, not socialist areas. 

I look forward to seeing the poll by poll breakdown.  For those on the blue team New Brunswick, Southern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of BC should be very blue and I also suspect they won most of the counties and municipalities in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and even in the Appalaches-Chaudieres region of Quebec.

For the orange team, I suspect you will see lots of it in Quebec and much the way they won most ridings, probably most RCMs and municipalities also went NDP.  Also lots in Northern Ontario and some in Vancouver Island, while elsewhere their support is largely confined to the urban core meaning a fair number of seats, but not too many municipalities let alone counties.

For the Red team, Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI will be your only bright spots.  In fact looking at the Liberal vote by municipality, poll, or region will probably be pretty depressing for our Liberal friends in most parts of the country.
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« Reply #837 on: May 23, 2011, 01:57:08 AM »

I heard the NDP won more polls than the Liberals in Toronto Centre, as the Tories won Rosedale and the NDP won the rest of the riding, so the Liberals won the riding by finishing 2nd in both areas.
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DL
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« Reply #838 on: May 23, 2011, 11:22:04 AM »


In terms of Etobicoke North, that is a tough one.  Has a large immigrant community and is fairly working class in contrast with the other two Etobicoke ridings where the NDP has almost no chance at winning.  By the same token, it went solidly for Rob Ford in the last municipal election, it went PC provincially in both 1995 and 1999 and the Tories federally have consistently been in second place, so could go either way if you ask me.


Its true that the Tories won Etob. North in '95 and '99 - but in each case they won it with just about the low vote share of any riding they won in the province on an almost perfect three-way split. On top of that - that area has changed a lot demographically since the 90s and is now much poorer and more "visible minority" than it was then. I think I read that Etobicoke North is the most Muslim riding in Canada now! Its true that Rob Ford is from that area (well actually he's from the richer more central part of Etobicoke - but he was elected there) - but if he zillions of robo-called etc...were not enough to even come close to electing a Tory in this election when Ford's popularity is still in a honeymoon phase - then I'm sceptical what impact he'll have in 2015 when he may not even be mayor anymore and will in any case have accumulated a lot of the negative baggage that comes from being in power.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Etob.-Lakeshore for the NDP. That area actually went NDP federally in 1972 and came close to going NDP throughout the 70s and 80s. Provincially it was represented by Ruth Grier of the NDP for many years. The area closer to the lake is very working class. I think the Liberal vote was very inflated from having Ignatieff as the candidate - four years from now the NDP could be the main opposition to the Tories and the Liberal vote could collapse. in that context anything could happen.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #839 on: May 23, 2011, 04:01:45 PM »

Recount over, 'toby C has been held by the CPC.
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cinyc
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« Reply #840 on: May 23, 2011, 05:58:27 PM »

Recount over, 'toby C has been held by the CPC.

...with no change in the margin whatsoever - Conservative win by 26 votes.  The Conservative and Liberal candidates each picked up 17 votes in the recount.

That's all for the recounts.  Canadian preliminary vote counts are pretty accurate, as usual.  I guess that's what happens when you use simple paper ballots for the election's only race.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #841 on: May 23, 2011, 06:00:17 PM »

Now that the writs are returned, we should see some official seating data from Parliament, which is what I've been waiting to see ever since a few hours into ballot counting.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #842 on: May 23, 2011, 08:31:15 PM »

I heard the NDP won more polls than the Liberals in Toronto Centre, as the Tories won Rosedale and the NDP won the rest of the riding, so the Liberals won the riding by finishing 2nd in both areas.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened in Vancouver Centre.  The Tories are strong in Coal Harbour and Yaletown where you have a lot of the expensive condos, while the NDP more in the West End where there is the large gay community and a lot of unmarried apartment dwellers.  Also possible to see a similiar scenario in Richmond-Arthabaska as it is in between L'Estrie which the NDP swept and the Appalaches-Chaudieres which went mostly Conservative. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #843 on: May 23, 2011, 08:37:45 PM »


Its true that the Tories won Etob. North in '95 and '99 - but in each case they won it with just about the low vote share of any riding they won in the province on an almost perfect three-way split. On top of that - that area has changed a lot demographically since the 90s and is now much poorer and more "visible minority" than it was then. I think I read that Etobicoke North is the most Muslim riding in Canada now! Its true that Rob Ford is from that area (well actually he's from the richer more central part of Etobicoke - but he was elected there) - but if he zillions of robo-called etc...were not enough to even come close to electing a Tory in this election when Ford's popularity is still in a honeymoon phase - then I'm sceptical what impact he'll have in 2015 when he may not even be mayor anymore and will in any case have accumulated a lot of the negative baggage that comes from being in power.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Etob.-Lakeshore for the NDP. That area actually went NDP federally in 1972 and came close to going NDP throughout the 70s and 80s. Provincially it was represented by Ruth Grier of the NDP for many years. The area closer to the lake is very working class. I think the Liberal vote was very inflated from having Ignatieff as the candidate - four years from now the NDP could be the main opposition to the Tories and the Liberal vote could collapse. in that context anything could happen.

I agree on Etobicoke North, but I would be careful about Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  Although it may have gone NDP in the past, it went PC in 1984 and 1988 when Patrick Boyer held the riding and I believe the Liberals came in second both times.  Likewise it went PC provincially in 1995 and 1999 and unlike Etobicoke North, the PCs got in the upper 40s.  Also I am not so sure how big an effect Ignatieff had as in the past five elections it has been one of the weaker Liberal showings in Toronto and one of the sronger Tory showings (in 2000 I took the PC + Alliance vote).  This area is farily white and with an above average income although not as wealthy as Mississauga South which is clearly a Liberal/Tory battleground.  I agree the Tories could lose this, but it would be to the Liberals not NDP.  It is only 20% visible minority, although 40% are immigrants, but many are Eastern European immigrants, particulary Polish, Ukrainian, and Hungarian who have been living in Canada for over 30 years and according to an Ipsos exit poll the NDP won amongst immigrants who came in the last ten years, but the Tories amongst those who have lived in Canada for over ten years.  Likewise average imcones amongst immigrants who came prior to 1980 is generally higher than that of native born Canadians, by contrast incomes amongst immigrants who have arrived in the last ten years is only 2/3 of what a native Canadian makes thus why they might be more inclined to vote NDP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #844 on: May 23, 2011, 08:50:10 PM »

Adding to those who talk about the NDP taking many former Liberal seats in Toronto, I would be careful here.  In BC you have a left/right split and the city Vancouver pretty much splits evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP, so if the Liberal vote implodes I suspect you would see a similiar scenario in Toronto.  Also I don't buy the idea the NDP will necessarily replace the Liberals.  Outside Quebec, the NDP lead over the Liberals is much smaller and as we have seen in the past Quebec can swing massively in favour of a certain party only to take it away at a minute's notice.  For one thing, Jack Layton will face the following challenge; does he give into Quebec nationalist's demands and alienate his supporters in English Canada, not give into Quebec and lose badly there or find a happy medium like Mulroney tried to do and lose in both.  Remember the Bloc Quebecois and Reform Party were both offshots of the Mulroney PC coalition as many of his Western supporters felt he pandered too much to Quebec while many in Quebec felt he didn't do enough.  I am not saying this will happen, but it certainly could.  Also if the Liberals pull ahead nationally, I expect much of the centre-left vote in Ontario to swing back to them as they are more concerned about defeating the Tories and care less about which party it is.  Also the Tories destroyed Dion and Ignatieff through their attack ads and I assume they will use them against the NDP although probably the party as a whole and some of its members rather than Layton who is well known and fairly popular.  Considering how effective they were against the Liberals, they could work against the NDP.  Also the Liberal Party in many ways has a stronger opposition team.  Bob Rae, unlike Dion or Ignatieff is good at ripping the Tories apart so if he is interim leader I suspect he will do a good job of opposing them.  On finance, Ralph Goodale, Scott Brison, and John McCallum are far superior to any NDP MP, while on health care, you have Kirsty Duncan and Carolyn Bennett who are both former doctors so if on the major issues the Liberals are a more effetive opposition than the NDP that could help them.  As for my personal bias, I am a Democrat supporter in the US and this site is a US site thus why I am listed as a Democrat supporter, but in Canada I have been eligible to vote since 2000 and have voted for both the Tories and Liberals although I won't say which elections I voted for which.  I also tend to look at my local candidate too.  Still I try to look at things from a non-objective point of view, not my personal bias.  After all I was quite happy to see the NDP wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but that doesn't mean I think the Bloc cannot rebound although I hope they don't.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #845 on: May 23, 2011, 09:08:24 PM »

Doesn't matter if you voted Liberal or Tory, you're wrong either way ;-)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #846 on: May 23, 2011, 09:51:15 PM »

Doesn't matter if you voted Liberal or Tory, you're wrong either way ;-)

Considering those are the only two parties to have ever former government, it must mean many other Canadians are wrong too.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #847 on: May 23, 2011, 10:30:39 PM »

The Liberals were, generally, able to keep "English Canada" and Quebec happy at the same time - that is, outside the West. Given the current CPC dominance on the Prairies (3 opposition seats out of 56 total) I don't think that the threat of "losing the west" is a serious concern for the NDP.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #848 on: May 23, 2011, 10:34:39 PM »

Doesn't matter if you voted Liberal or Tory, you're wrong either way ;-)

Considering those are the only two parties to have ever former government, it must mean many other Canadians are wrong too.

Yup! Cheesy
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #849 on: May 23, 2011, 11:57:23 PM »

The Liberals were, generally, able to keep "English Canada" and Quebec happy at the same time - that is, outside the West. Given the current CPC dominance on the Prairies (3 opposition seats out of 56 total) I don't think that the threat of "losing the west" is a serious concern for the NDP.

What about BC? Or is that not what you think of when talking about the "West"?
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