Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
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December 08, 2021, 10:52:05 AM

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  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124607 times)
mileslunn
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« on: May 02, 2011, 06:33:58 PM »

I am assuming the NDP is leading in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and Tories in Avalon.  Don't know this but based on polling and past election results that would be my guess.  I am I correct?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2011, 06:37:56 PM »

Let me know when they call any seat changes differently than last time around.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2011, 06:45:18 PM »


How many polls in so far?  I know in past election he has started out trailing yet won.  Still a bit early now.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2011, 06:55:51 PM »

I imagine the results that are start to pick up in Atlantic Canada, any updates here.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2011, 07:05:41 PM »

What seats are the NDP picking up now?  If MacKay is ahead I presume it is Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax West, and South Shore-St. Margaret's.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2011, 07:14:40 PM »

Twitterverse claims Mackay won Central Nova (CON hold).

No real surprise here.  He got 46% last time around and the Tories have the best voter retention so even though I suspect much of the Liberal and Green support went to the Tories, that still wouldn't be enough.  What new seats are the Tories picking up?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2011, 07:16:02 PM »


Possible.  This is a very rural riding and it really depends on location.  Gerald Keddy also tends to win big in the small communities while Gordon Earle I think won most of the large communities last time around.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2011, 07:23:50 PM »

Is there any chance of a Tory majority still?

Depends on how many seats they pick up in Ontario and if they can keep their losses to a minimum in Quebec and British Columbia.  Also if they come within a few seats, they can probably bribe a few opposition members to cross the floor
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2011, 07:25:31 PM »

These results are looking good for the Tories...

Not really.  When you consider the Liberal collapse, it would make sense they would pick up ridings they came in second even if their vote didn't increase.  Could be vote splitting, which would be good news for them in Ontario, not so much BC.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2011, 07:28:04 PM »

If Atlantic Canada was its own country, we would have a minority government.  Otherwise either Tory or Liberal, but a Liberal+NDP coalition would work.  Off course Atlantic Canada is the least Tory friendly area of English Canada, so maybe a good sign.  We shall see.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2011, 07:34:20 PM »

Atlantic Vote Change: Liberal & Greens down ~ 4 pts each. Cons & NDP up ~4 pts. #elxn41 #tweettheresults

How much did the Conservatives go up in Newfoundland & Labrador?  Or was this throughout Atlantic Canada?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2011, 07:37:03 PM »

Nova Scotia popular vote so far: Con 37 NDP 31.1 Lib 27.1

I am guessing the provincial NDP's unpopularity is hurting them here.  Also rural results tend to come in faster than urban so those numbers may tighten up.  Certainly if this swing occurred nationally, we would have a Tory majority.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2011, 07:38:57 PM »

Voter turn out up 34% compared to 2008; normally bad news for incumbent #elxn41

Not always as maybe people are tired of minority governments.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2011, 07:44:02 PM »

Halifax West before South Shore? Wow.

If the NDP and Tories are rising but the Liberals sinking that would make sense as the Blue Liberals would go Tory and Progressive Liberals go NDP.  Also the NDP has a better GOTV in Halifax than Rural Nova Scotia.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2011, 07:45:42 PM »


Could happen.  Of the four leaders, he is the most likely to lose his own seat, but Ignatieff could also lose his own.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2011, 07:47:06 PM »

Since they picked up nothing in Newfoundland & Labrador.  What are the other two seats elsewhere in Atlantic Canada they are ahead in?  It would have to be in PEI or New Brunswick.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2011, 07:50:12 PM »


Could be PEI.  It would probably be Madawaska-Restigouche, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, or Malpeque.  It would be all three if the Tories are trailing in South Shore-St. Margaret's which I believe they are not.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2011, 07:52:31 PM »

The polls aren't closed in Quebec; disregard Twitter frauds.

They could be closed on the Isles du Madeleine - but I've heard no early results from there.

That would be NDP or Bloc Quebecois.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2011, 08:00:08 PM »

How about just list the seats that have flipped.  That would make it easy.  I know the NDP picked up St. John's South-Mount Pearl and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and are leading in Halifax West.  The Tories are leading in Madawaska-Restigouche and one other riding they didn't win last time around.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2011, 08:03:43 PM »

Ridings to watch in Quebec:

All of them.


Ridings to watch in Ontario:

Kenora, where if the orange wave strikes can end the Conservative pursuit for a majority.

Simcoe-Grey for the duel between local MP Helena Guergis, cast out of Harper's caucus, and the Tories' own candidate.

The Brampton trio (West, Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton) to witness Harper's success at gaining the ethnic vote (Indians in particular)

Trinity-Spadina, Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, where the NDP or the Liberals can gain it all in Toronto's left coast.

Oshawa, Essex and Brant, where the strength of the NDP candidates may let them beat the odds.

Oshawa is a good possibility.  Essex a long shot but possible.  Not Brant as they have the formal Liberal candidate and I suspect the Tories will hold the 43% they got last time around.  Essex and Oshawa only if hte Liberal vote collapses which seems more likely in Oshawa than Essex
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mileslunn
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2011, 08:14:29 PM »

Can you confirm which ridings have been called and which flipped
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2011, 08:17:18 PM »

Can you confirm which ridings have been called and which flipped

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Conservative gains are Madawaska-Restigouche and one of the PEI seats (don't know which one).

It would probably be Malpeque.  Did the Liberals hold Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
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mileslunn
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2011, 08:20:47 PM »

"Jfd888" on Twitter said that "Exit polls show NDP gains in the Toronto suburbs failed to materialize. Big CON Margins."

Saw it on CBC. The account is now terminated.

Do we even have exit polls?
I don't think so.  We did during the Quebec referendum, the last time around.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2011, 08:27:34 PM »

There is no way he will lose.  Probably a typo.  I am guessing Beausejour, Dominic Leblanc was the only Liberal in New Brunswick?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2011, 08:29:09 PM »

Since the results will be available.  I will sign off now.
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