Canadian Election Results Thread
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September 16, 2021, 11:10:04 AM

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #775 on: May 16, 2011, 06:57:44 AM »

Western Ontario is not nearly as anti-NDP as you think.
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« Reply #776 on: May 16, 2011, 07:16:46 AM »

I disagree than an NDP win would come from the west. I think it'll come from Ontario. They can only really gain  10-15 seats in western Canada. The rest have to come from somewhere. And, Ontario has gone NDP before, it just has to exorcise Bob Rae and do it again.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #777 on: May 16, 2011, 07:19:17 AM »



Rae's win.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #778 on: May 16, 2011, 07:57:08 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2011, 08:06:16 PM by mileslunn »

I don't think it is so much that Southwestern Ontario is hostile to the NDP as more where would they get the additional votes from.  Unlike the BC Interior and Island where you have a lot crossover Tory-NDP voters there are relatively few in Ontario.  Many Lib-Tory switchers and NDP-Liberal switchers, but not too many NDP-Tory switchers.  In the 519 area code the Tories got above 50% in every riding save the two Kitchener ridings, Guelph, the three London ridings, the two Windsor ridings, Brant, and Essex.  In the case of Brant and Essex they came pretty close to 50% so the Liberals would have to crater and have over 90% transfer to the NDP to win this.  Although these have gone NDP in the past due to their strong manufacturing base, they also include a large rural section and the Tories dominate Rural Ontario pretty strongly.  In Guelph, it could NDP as the riding is centre-left but that assumes the Liberal vote swings en masse to the NDP.  If it doesn't swing much, it stays Liberal, if it partially swings you get a split vote and the Tories come up the middle.  In the Kitchener ridings, the Tories are vulnerable, but these are not exactly your NDP type ridings so if they do lose those seats it will be to the Liberals, not NDP.  London North Centre could go NDP but London West has a lot of business types living in the riding so although I could see the NDP getting as high as 30% here, Iwould be quite shocked if they actually won it.  The Liberals could as they are able to appeal to wealthy voters whereas the NDP cannot.  The remaining three ridings are already NDP held.  My point is the Tory vote is pretty solid and if it switches it would be to the Liberals, not the NDP or they would simply stay home.  And likewise I don't think the Liberals will completely disappear nor do I think all of them would go over to the NDP.  Maybe 2/3 would, but some would go over to the Tories and since the Tories have a much stronger base here, it would help them win seats.  Now I realize a lot can change in four years and if the NDP and Liberals merged, then they could win a whole whack of seats in Southwestern Ontario provided people were tired of the Tories.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #779 on: May 16, 2011, 08:05:40 PM »

I still think the NDP win would come through the West and Quebec.  They won't win in Alberta, but BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are different cases.  Yes Ontario, voted for Bob Rae, but that was a one time case and I don't think you can assume they would automatically go back to the NDP.  Usually a party has to have a strong base in area to do well in election after election.  The NDP could gain seats in Ontario, but I don't see this as being their stronghold.  The 905 and suburban 416 will either go Liberal or Tory, but certainly not NDP.  Northern Ontario is largley NDP to begin with, while Central Ontario and most of Eastern Ontario is solidly Tory and with no manufacturing base or major universities in most ridings, not much potential there.  Likewise the Liberals have managed to stay in the lows 20s in Eastern Ontario so I am not so sure they will disappear quickly in that region even if they cannot translate this into seats.  In BC, the NDP won the majority of seats in both the 1974 and 1988 election and has won provincially on multiple occassions.  Likewise they usually get around 40% provincially meaning if they could get all those who vote NDP provincially to vote NDP federally, they could do quite well.  Maybe not win the majority of seats in the province, but at least win more than they have now.  In Saskatchewan, it is really the riding boundaries that kill them.  If they got rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings I think the NDP would win seats in Saskatchewan.  Rural Saskatchewan is solidly Tory, but Saskatoon and Regina are much more competitive, so although not strongholds, they are winneable.  Both Gary Doer and Roy Romanow got close to 50% in their respective provinces, so if the federal NDP could adopt similiar policies, I don't see why they could get similiar results.  The problem is the federal NDP is very different than their provincial counterparts in those provinces thus why they don't do as well.  By contrast in Ontario other than Bob Rae's one time win, there is no history of the NDP doing well and not much they can draw from.  While some would say the same about the Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois and Parti Quebecois have very similiar platforms to the NDP so at least there was the ideological similiarity, by contrast, Ontario has no similiar comparison.  Unless the Liberals and NDP merge, looking at the results and characteristics of the population, I think the best chance of the NDP winning in 2015 is if they can reduce the Tories to a minority, defeat them on the throne speech and then rely on the Liberals to prop them up.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #780 on: May 16, 2011, 09:10:24 PM »

That is lots of words...

It comes down to math. Once you take into account the unexpected GTA Harper bump, my math was correct. My math says the NDP can win "rural" areas of SW Ontario, like they did in Rae's era
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« Reply #781 on: May 16, 2011, 10:08:09 PM »

I think you will see the NDP win in Brampton, first. Yes, you heard me. Indians vote NDP in BC, so why not in Ontario? The NDP nearly picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Perhaps after redistribution, a more heavily Indian riding will result in an NDP pickup?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #782 on: May 16, 2011, 10:58:33 PM »

I think you will see the NDP win in Brampton, first. Yes, you heard me. Indians vote NDP in BC, so why not in Ontario? The NDP nearly picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Perhaps after redistribution, a more heavily Indian riding will result in an NDP pickup?

I think you are right on Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  Less sure about the other two Brampton ridings.  I think a lot depends on religion too.  I believe the Tories do well amongst the Hindus who are big in Ontario but not in BC, whereas amongst the Sikhs and Muslims they are far more likely to go NDP than Tory.  Mississauga is also an interesting case as it has a large Muslim population which could help the NDP.  Also, I think the Tories hardline on refugees could help the NDP amongst the Tamil population.  Mind you after re-distribution the boundaries will be much different and I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new ridings is a safe Tory, one is favourable to the Liberals and at least one if not more are favourable to the NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown, but I am sure through gerrymandering in Mississauga/Brampton you could create a safe riding for each party.  As for the NDP bump in Rural Ontario, I am still skeptical since although Harper got a GTA bump that came almost entirely from the Liberals.  When one considers the Tories got over 50% in most rural Ontario ridings, you need Tory-NDP crossovers which I don't see.  If you look at the gains of the NDP and Tories in Ontario in the past four elections, almost all of it has come at the expense of the Liberals.  Due to the ideological differences between the two parties it is much tougher to swing votes between them then it is for each to pick off support or lose support to the Liberals who sit in between the two on the spectrum.  In BC, you have a lot more protest votes, especially in the Interior and Island thus why you have NDP-Tory swing votes, although in the case of the Lower Mainland they are pretty much non-existent.  All the swing voters I met in the Lower Mainland were either NDP-Liberal on the centre-left and Tory-Liberal on the centre-right.  In the case of Quebec, people care less about right vs. left and more about who will offer Quebec the best deal.  Besides it looks like the NDP gains came primarily from the Bloc Quebecois, to a lesser extent from the Liberals and even smaller number from the Tories.  The Bloc Quebecois was already a social democratic party so philosophically other than the national question, they had a lot in common with the NDP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #783 on: May 16, 2011, 11:26:32 PM »

I should also add the NDP strength amongst the South Asian vote is more at the provincial level, at the federal level they largely go Liberal still, although you are right if between the Tories and the NDP, the NDP probably would win hands down.  Lets remember the BC Liberals provincially are closer ideogically to the Tories than federal Liberals are.  In addition the South Asian community is overwhelmingly Sikh in BC, whereas in Ontario it is a real mix, although I think Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Brampton is general is primarily Sikh while the Muslim community is more in Mississauga and the Hindu more in Scarborough. 
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« Reply #784 on: May 16, 2011, 11:31:27 PM »

Scarborough is another area that is trending NDP big time.

I know NDP-Tory swing voters are a rarity in Ontario, but if the NDP replaces the Liberals as the opposition (in the long run, I mean), then you will definitely see more. Where else will a disgruntled Tory run. The Liberals? Not if they are some fringe party. Boom, the NDP gets some votes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #785 on: May 17, 2011, 12:01:51 AM »

Scarborough is another area that is trending NDP big time.

I know NDP-Tory swing voters are a rarity in Ontario, but if the NDP replaces the Liberals as the opposition (in the long run, I mean), then you will definitely see more. Where else will a disgruntled Tory run. The Liberals? Not if they are some fringe party. Boom, the NDP gets some votes.

I agree you may be right, although I think it will become more like BC elections where the number of swing votes will be at the margins.  If you look at the NDP vote in BC vs. the Social Credit/BC Liberals you do get occassional fluctuations but the variations are quite a bit less than what you see federally.  You also have about 20 really close ridings, mostly in the Lougheed Corridor that are often decided by a few hundred votes so I suspect elections would be fought in those types of ridings.  Where they would be is anyone's guess, although I think Scarborough, London are possibilities.  Also with the re-distribution you could get a long more swing ridings too as the suburbs and rural areas seem pretty strong Tory, but a large part of Ontario's population lives in urban areas and that is where the growth is.  I should also note you see a much smaller swing vote in the US and Europe where you have more polarized electorates and often elections are won and lost at the margins.  Also much of Ontario's growth comes from immigration so I suspect how future immigrants vote could have a big impact on whether the NDP makes big gains in Ontario or not.  I suspect that is why the Tories are all for maintaining or raising business and economic class, while cutting family class and refugees as they figure the former two are most likely to vote for them while not the latter two.  Also as the older voters die off, will the younger voters stay on the left or gradually move to the right as they get older and likewise what about voter turnout as most who don't vote in their first two elections never vote.  I guess I was thinking of the next election, not a few down the road.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #786 on: May 17, 2011, 01:34:29 AM »

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.
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cinyc
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« Reply #787 on: May 17, 2011, 04:22:24 PM »

The Liberal candidate won after the Winnipeg North recount.  His victory fell from 45 votes over the NDP on election night to 44 votes in the recount.

That leaves two recounts open, both in Ontario - Nipissing–Timiskaming and Etobicoke Centre.  The Conservative candidate narrowly edged a Liberal in the preliminary results from both ridings.  We might get final Nipissing–Timiskaming results today.
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cinyc
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« Reply #788 on: May 17, 2011, 04:27:56 PM »

The Conservative held on in Nipissing-Timiskaming, per local media.   His margin increased from 14 votes over the Liberal incumbent on election night to 18 votes after the recount.

That leaves Etobicoke Centre's recount as the only one outstanding.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #789 on: May 17, 2011, 07:39:28 PM »

The Conservative held on in Nipissing-Timiskaming, per local media.   His margin increased from 14 votes over the Liberal incumbent on election night to 18 votes after the recount.

That leaves Etobicoke Centre's recount as the only one outstanding.

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #790 on: May 17, 2011, 07:41:58 PM »

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.
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cinyc
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« Reply #791 on: May 17, 2011, 08:46:05 PM »

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Doubtful.  The Etobicoke Centre recount won't even start until tomorrow.  There is no schedule for when it will end.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #792 on: May 17, 2011, 08:56:25 PM »

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

Tories swept North York, the NDP swept the old city
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mileslunn
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« Reply #793 on: May 17, 2011, 09:00:09 PM »

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Doubtful.  The Etobicoke Centre recount won't even start until tomorrow.  There is no schedule for when it will end.

I guess that means Ted Opitz won't being going into cabinet.  I wonder who will go into cabinet of the MPs elected in the 416 as I am sure at least one will.  Also I heard all defeated MPs have to have their offices cleared by Thursday, so that could be a problem if this one isn't known.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #794 on: May 17, 2011, 09:02:30 PM »

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

Tories swept North York, the NDP swept the old city

Generally true, although I believe York West is mostly in North York which went Liberal and the Tories came in third.  Likewise I believe part of Don Valley West extends into the old city, but for the most part that is correct.  And the Liberals did win Toronto Centre and St. Paul's, otherwise the wealthy enclaves in old city. 
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #795 on: May 17, 2011, 09:14:12 PM »

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&vps=2&jsv=340c&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a339e65b69873c792
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #796 on: May 17, 2011, 09:44:03 PM »

If Toronto is combined with York and East York

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DL
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« Reply #797 on: May 17, 2011, 10:31:30 PM »


The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

There is actually more NDP history in Scarborough than you might think. The federal NDP actually won what is now Scarborough Southwest in the mid-60s and again in 1972 and they came very close in that riding in 1974, 1979 and 1980 (back in those days what is now Scarborough Rouge River was mostly farmers fields and a zoo!). The Ontario NDP regularly won seats in Scarborough from the early 60s up until the defeat of the Rae government in 1995 - Stephen Lewis was the MPP for Scarborough West for almost 20 years! Of course in those days Scarborough was very "white working class" and had a lot of immigrants from Scotland who brought their Labour Party voting habits with them. Now Scarborough is heavily immigrant. It seems that the NDP made a major breakthrough this time with the Tamil community which is huge in Scarborough - possibly because Layton was the only leader to speak up for the Tamils who were being massacred by the Sri Lankan army at the end of the civil war. BTW: Tamils are south Asian and they are also all Hindu - that is one one major Hindu group that is trending NDP in addition to the NDP strength with Sikhs and Muslims - it should be noted that two Indo-Canadians were elected as NDP MPs from heavily south asian risings in Surrey in suburban Vancouver this election.   
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« Reply #798 on: May 17, 2011, 10:45:55 PM »

*sigh*

There are six pages of job postings on the NDP website, and not a single one that a non bilingual person can apply to.

I will never get to work on the Hill!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #799 on: May 17, 2011, 11:38:57 PM »

True, Scarborough Southwest has gone NDP, but I am not so sure how well they have done elsewhere.  I know the PCs under Mulroney won seats in Scarborough albeit it was more suburban and whiter than today.  Also Mike Harris won Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough East, and Scarborough Centre, while Rob Ford won all Scarborough wards, so I think it was more of a Liberal stronghold federally than anything else.  As for the NDP gaining amongst Tamils, I agree.  I mentioned earlier the Tories doing well amongst Hindus, this is in reference to an Ipsos Exit poll of 36,000 Canadians whereby amongst Hindus in the 2006 election it was 44% Liberals, 29% Tories, while for Sikhs it was 40% NDP, 37% Liberals, and 17% Conservatives.  There are lots of Hindus from India which is where I think the Tories get a lot of their support from this community.  I suspect their stance on the Tamil refugees probably didn't go over too well with that community.  Since the Tories have gone up since 2006 and the Liberals have cratered, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories won the Hindu vote.  I think amongst immigrants, they won those from Europe and the Far East while the NDP amongst those from elsewhere although one should be careful about generalizing as I don't think any ethnic group votes as a block.  In fact asides from those from Northern Europe (who the Tories probably got over 50% amongst, they got 48% in English Canada) I don't think any party got above 50% amongst any immigrant group.  Quite a contrast from 2000 when 71% of visible minorities voted Liberal.  In fact the loss of immigrants and Catholics is one of the reasons the Liberals have fallen so far so fast.
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