Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
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  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124276 times)
DL
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« on: May 05, 2011, 12:22:24 PM »

The NDP actually came out of no where to almost win heavily Sikh Bramalea-Gore-Malton and they picked up heavily South Asian ridings in suburban Vancouver like Newton-North Delta and Surrey North. Scarborough-Rouge River also went NDP in a shock upset (NDP vote went from 13% to 40%!!) and that seat is 89% (no typo) foreign-born and heavily Tamil (as is the new NDP MP). So for all the talk about Tory inroads in the immigrant communities - there was also an under-reported NDP story happening.


But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.


But, going back to the Liberal collapse - more people should be talking about Mississauga-Brampton! Peel region has gone entirely Tory, and by a far wider swing than Toronto. The Tory takeover of Brampton, at the very least, could be evidence that their targeting minorities strategy has worked, if only among the Indians. Or that they were right about immigrants only voting Liberal out of nostalgia.

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DL
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2011, 09:42:30 PM »

The recount confirmed the NDP win by 9 votes over the Conservative incumbent in the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Riveire du loup-Kamouraska - so Tories now have 166 seats and the NDP 103
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DL
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2011, 04:32:55 PM »

I think that's visible minorities compared to non-visible minorities among immigrants. Even a "non-visible minority" is still not the majority!
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DL
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2011, 10:31:30 PM »


The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

There is actually more NDP history in Scarborough than you might think. The federal NDP actually won what is now Scarborough Southwest in the mid-60s and again in 1972 and they came very close in that riding in 1974, 1979 and 1980 (back in those days what is now Scarborough Rouge River was mostly farmers fields and a zoo!). The Ontario NDP regularly won seats in Scarborough from the early 60s up until the defeat of the Rae government in 1995 - Stephen Lewis was the MPP for Scarborough West for almost 20 years! Of course in those days Scarborough was very "white working class" and had a lot of immigrants from Scotland who brought their Labour Party voting habits with them. Now Scarborough is heavily immigrant. It seems that the NDP made a major breakthrough this time with the Tamil community which is huge in Scarborough - possibly because Layton was the only leader to speak up for the Tamils who were being massacred by the Sri Lankan army at the end of the civil war. BTW: Tamils are south Asian and they are also all Hindu - that is one one major Hindu group that is trending NDP in addition to the NDP strength with Sikhs and Muslims - it should be noted that two Indo-Canadians were elected as NDP MPs from heavily south asian risings in Surrey in suburban Vancouver this election.   
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DL
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2011, 08:15:15 AM »

There is a lot of discussion of how the parties fared among different religious groups based on that Ipsos exit poll. One thing i wish we knew from the exit poll is their actual sample sizes among Jews, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists etc... because each of these religions is less than 1% of the entire Canadian population - so i wonder how statistically significant the exit poll is when trying to project vote intention in these micro-communities.
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DL
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2011, 11:49:08 AM »

John Baird will make a very good "minister of having as many affairs as possible in foreign countries where he can be anonymous".
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DL
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2011, 09:53:39 AM »

In 416 the NDP grabbed all its low hanging fruit - even the two seats in Scarborough that most would have regarded as "high-hanging fruit" - but i can already see what seats in Toronto the NDP will almost certainly target next time due to good demographics (ie: low incomes and lots of visible minorities) and good showings in this election despite relatively weak local campaigns. In all likelihood in 2015 the NDP will be like vultures pecking even more chunks from the Liberals carcass - they will heavily target Toronto Centre (I expect rae will have retired by then), the two Scarbouogh seats they did not win and also Etobicoke North and York West and maybe even Don Valley East - all ridings that have drastically evolved demographically and which were once seen to be middle class suburbia and are now very downscale areas that are mostly populated by Somalis and South Asians and Afro-Canadians etc...

Of course there will be a redistribution between now and 2015 - and who knows what the new boundaries will look like. Right now both Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre are very overpopulated. I wouldn't be surprised if Rosedale gets removed from TC - turning TC into a rding tailor made for the NDP.
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DL
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2011, 11:30:36 PM »

Seems like the NDP is becoming the party of the old city, definitely so if the Liberals continue to be shut out. But as for Etobicoke North and York West, I see them voting Tory before the NDP. That part of the city has more in common with the 905 than the rest of the city.


If you've ever actually been to Etobicoke North or York West - you would see that they are actually two of the poorest ridings in all of Ontario. Etobicoke North is largely run-down high rises built in the 60s that are mostly inhabited by Somalis and Sikhs and York West is the Jane-Finch corridor which is overwhelmingly Black housing projects. They are a teeny bit like the similarly poor and very visible minority 905 riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton that almost went NDP and they are a lot like the Scarborough seats that went NDP.

When people talk about "905-land" as in the areas that went heavily Tory in this election - they don't mean run-down apartment complexes inhabited by recent immigrants and visible minorities and people with low incomes. They mean places like Thornhill and Oakville and much of Mississauga and Markham and Richmond Hill where you have a lot of big detached single family homes and people with upper middle class incomes.
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DL
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2011, 11:22:04 AM »


In terms of Etobicoke North, that is a tough one.  Has a large immigrant community and is fairly working class in contrast with the other two Etobicoke ridings where the NDP has almost no chance at winning.  By the same token, it went solidly for Rob Ford in the last municipal election, it went PC provincially in both 1995 and 1999 and the Tories federally have consistently been in second place, so could go either way if you ask me.


Its true that the Tories won Etob. North in '95 and '99 - but in each case they won it with just about the low vote share of any riding they won in the province on an almost perfect three-way split. On top of that - that area has changed a lot demographically since the 90s and is now much poorer and more "visible minority" than it was then. I think I read that Etobicoke North is the most Muslim riding in Canada now! Its true that Rob Ford is from that area (well actually he's from the richer more central part of Etobicoke - but he was elected there) - but if he zillions of robo-called etc...were not enough to even come close to electing a Tory in this election when Ford's popularity is still in a honeymoon phase - then I'm sceptical what impact he'll have in 2015 when he may not even be mayor anymore and will in any case have accumulated a lot of the negative baggage that comes from being in power.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Etob.-Lakeshore for the NDP. That area actually went NDP federally in 1972 and came close to going NDP throughout the 70s and 80s. Provincially it was represented by Ruth Grier of the NDP for many years. The area closer to the lake is very working class. I think the Liberal vote was very inflated from having Ignatieff as the candidate - four years from now the NDP could be the main opposition to the Tories and the Liberal vote could collapse. in that context anything could happen.
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DL
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2011, 09:32:38 AM »

Its worth noting that for all the talk about so-called "vote splitting" and about this mythical "progressive vote" in western Canada - when provincial Liberal parties vanished in BC (the party called BC Liberal is really Social Credit) and Sask. and Manitoba - their people tended to join with rightwing conservatives to create a non-NDP party. Make no mistake about it - if Harper had fallen short of a majority - the Liberals under Ignatieff would have quickly pulled a Nick Clegg and propped up Harper indefinitely. Of course the Liberals would also have promptly fallen into single digits - but so what - the Liberal Party would rather see Harper rule for the next 50 years than ever see the NDP in power.

I think the remnants of the Liberal party should just do what comes naturally and merge with the Tories and create a new Liberal-Conservative party.
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DL
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2011, 12:19:19 AM »

YOu're quite right adma. There are factories and working class voters all over 905 - its just that up until now the NDP has been totally out of the picture and has not run serious campaigns with serious candidates. Its quite possible that in the next election the NDP will target a few seats in 905 beyond Oshawa and B-G-M and try to scoop up the last vestiges of the Liberal vote.   
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DL
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2011, 09:29:54 AM »


And are the charges that the NDP is now beholden to Quebec now that over half of its caucus is from there true or not?

It goes without saying that all parties tend to be more sensitive to the needs of the regions of the country where the bulk of their support comes from. The NDP will inevitably be more "beholden" to the following: Quebecers, women, younger people, visible minorities, people with lower incomes, people who work in the public sector, union members etc... The Tories on the other hand are "beholden" to the following: Albertans, rural people, older men, rich people, evangelical Christians, Bay St.

Tell me something i didn't already know. Quebecers tend to have very leftwing view son most issues. All the NDP has to do to "represent" Quebec in Parliament is to keep on being itself!
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DL
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2011, 10:43:05 PM »

MIller doesn't have any particular tied to Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I think if he ever ran federally for the NDP, the logical place for him to run would be in Toronto Centre
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DL
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2011, 10:02:34 AM »

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.

In Nova Scotia the NDP vote also already very high - I think that in the '08 election the NDP had its highest provincial vote% in Canada in NS with 30% - so it it didn't have all that much room to grow further. In other provinces like BC, Alberta, Ontario, NB and (and of course Quebec) it was clear that the NDP had much more room to grow.
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DL
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2011, 12:39:31 PM »

looks like a peacock feather!
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DL
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2011, 06:09:27 PM »

In the case of Vancouver Island, I agree that strategic voting hurt them in Saanich-Gulf Islands.  However in the other two ridings they failed to win, the demographics are far less favourable than 20 years ago.  In Nanaimo-Alberni, the north side of Nanaimo is the more affluent part while the south side in Nanaimo-Cowichan is the working class part thus the split.  Parksville to Qualicum Beach is full of many seniors and rapidly growing thus the Conservative strength here.  In fact I believe Qualicum Beach has the oldest median age of any Canadian municipality.  The NDP has some strength in resource towns like Port Alberni, but their share of the population is not as large as it once was.  In the case of Vancouver Island North, if you took Comox out, the NDP would have won it in all of the last four elections.  Comox also has a large seniors population, while Courtenay, Campbell River, Port McNeil, and Port Hardy have a slightly rightward tilt, but not by much, while the rest of the riding is heavily NDP.  In fact in the 2005 and 2009 provincial election, the media mistakenly called Comox Valley for the NDP as the Comox results were slower to come in, yet the BC Liberals won both times.  Nanaimo-Cowichan I think is less vulnerable as there isn't the large seniors' population and there is still a strong union base.  If anything Saanich-Gulf Islands is probably the most favourable Conservative riding they didn't win.  While the Gulf Islands lean to the left and Saanich is a real mix, Central Saanich and North Saanich are semi-rural with a weak union base, while Sidney has a large senior's population.  Victoria is really the only Vancouver Island riding the Tories have no chance at winning.  They have some support in the more affluent Oak Bay which goes BC Liberal provincially, but get clobbered in Victoria.

Keep in mind though that BC is going to gain six seats in redistribution and the ridings on Vancouver Island are all very overpopulated so there will be at least one and maybe even two new seats created there. I would not be surprised if Comox, Qualicum and Parksville and all got made into a new riding that would be safely Tory but would render the other ridings more NDP.
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DL
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2011, 08:45:18 PM »

It is fair to say that for most of the past 5 years - the Liberals as opposition tended to be in the high-20s. The NDP seems to be in the low 30s now - and that is when the Tories may still be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon - what happens when they bring in their first really draconian budget next year?
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DL
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2011, 02:41:23 PM »

Read "The Strange Death of Liberal England" its remarkably similar to what happened in Canada this past decade.

Interesting that when the Liberals became a distant 3rd party in the UK - the only seats they tended to hold on to were these rural Celtic fringe seats in Cornwall and the Scottish Highlands - kind of like how the Liberal party of Canada's power base is now rural Newfoundland, PEI and Cape Breton!
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DL
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2011, 12:21:43 PM »

These are interesting maps. Of course in the case of Newton-North Delta I think more of the Liberal vote held because there was an incumbent running for re-election with a big following in the Sikh community. Now that he's out of the picture and the new NDP MP is also Sikh - I think that by 2015 that artificially Liberal vote in NND will evaporate and mostly go NDP.
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DL
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2011, 11:00:33 AM »

If you want examples of how moribund the Green party is in Quebec - consider how Elizabeth May trotted out some journalist last year to be her Quebec Lieut. he last literally three months then quit the Greens and joined the BQ (maybe he should have gone NDP - he might be in Parliament now). Then May picked some hockey player Georges Laraque with ZERO political experience to be her "deputy leader" in Quebec (his only apparent qualification for being second in command in the Green party was that he was a vegan!). He did not seek a seat and was missing in action the whole campaign.
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DL
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2011, 04:18:41 PM »

The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.

Are there any unpopular provincial NDP governments? According to the latest polls - the Nova Scotia NDP is way ahead of the opposition and is polling about 10% above what the federal party had in NS and the latest Manitoba poll has the NDP at 44% (tied with the Tories) and about 18% higher than the popular vote that the federal NDP had in Manitoba.

I've seen people float this theory before - and it might make sense if these provincial governments showed signs of being unpopular in the first place....
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DL
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2011, 12:24:24 PM »

The other explanation for what happened in Elmwood is simply that by all accounts Jim Maloway the NDP incumbent is a jerk. I've never heard one good thing about him and a lot of people in the NDP were secretely glad not to have him back in caucus - especially what with having 103 other members to share the workload. In 2015 the NDP can run someone infinitely better there. Who knows maybe Gary Doer will decide to get back into politics.
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DL
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« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2011, 12:31:47 AM »

And to some extent federally, Elmwood-Transcona was more of a "Blaikie seat" than an NDP seat--

Then again, there are four provincial seats that make up Elmwood-Transcona and all of them are some of the safest NDP seats in the province where NDP candidates routinely rack up wins by 3-1 margins...
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DL
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2011, 09:55:27 AM »

New Nanos Poll Sad Sad Sad

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27

No much of a surprise - the gap between the Conservatives and the NDP is the same 9 point gap it was on election night - the only change is a dead cat bounce by the Liberals. The Liberals have been ahead of the NDP in every election and every poll for the past 50 years - up until about one week before election day this past May. There are still a helluva of a lot of people for whom "Liberal" is still something they identify with and will be default response. Let's also keep in mind that the Liberals are now minus a leader who was ridiculously unpopular and the NDP is minus a leader (at least for now) who is ridiculously popular.
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DL
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« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2011, 07:00:13 AM »

I think there are two reasons for this: firstly, Montreal is an extremely socially liberal place. Surveys have shown that Anglo-montrealers are just about the most post modern socially liberal segment in all of Canada. Second of all the Tories tend to be associated with provincial rights and decentralization and if you are wealthy Montreal Anglo you probably are not crazy about that.
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