Canadian Election Results Thread

[Linus Van Pelt]

"Jfd888" on Twitter said that "Exit polls show NDP gains in the Toronto suburbs failed to materialize. Big CON Margins."

Saw it on CBC. The account is now terminated.

Very suspicious claim - pretty sure exit polls are illegal in Canada.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Projecting first and second place I can understand, but I wish at least that we had networks that vaguely understood the parliamentary system.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The extra Atlantic CON seat is Labrador!

[Linus Van Pelt]

He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.

Well, that's still a huge step down for him.

No, it's not. The PQ has always been more important than the BQ, and he would have the opportunity to form a government as PQ leader. Even before this defeat, I think being PQ leader was a bigger position than being BQ leader (but in 2007 Duceppe didn't want a slugfest with Marois that would have exposed the schisms between the social-democratic and conservative wings of the PQ). I think this defeat has tainted him too much, though.

(Curious what the NDP breakthrough will do for the QS's polling, if anything.)

One wonders whether anyone has thought of starting a serious provincial NDP. Surely Mulcair could beat the dismal pair of Charest and Marois...

[Linus Van Pelt]

He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.

Well, that's still a huge step down for him.

No, it's not. The PQ has always been more important than the BQ, and he would have the opportunity to form a government as PQ leader. Even before this defeat, I think being PQ leader was a bigger position than being BQ leader (but in 2007 Duceppe didn't want a slugfest with Marois that would have exposed the schisms between the social-democratic and conservative wings of the PQ). I think this defeat has tainted him too much, though.

(Curious what the NDP breakthrough will do for the QS's polling, if anything.)

One wonders whether anyone has thought of starting a serious provincial NDP. Surely Mulcair could beat the dismal pair of Charest and Marois...

There already is a provincial NDP. The QS. (Well, sort of. The QS is actually descended from the old provincial NDP. The Quebec NDP disaffiliated with the federal NDP in the early 1990s because they wanted to be sovereigntist, then later merged with some other small lefty outfits to form the UFP, which then merged with Option Citoyenne in 2007 to create QS.)

Quebec provincial politics is too starkly split along separatist-unionist lines that I can't see the NDP wanting to wade into the mire. Maybe. No way Mulcair would lead it, though; he's now the heir apparent to Jack Layton and hence a contender for Prime Minister.

It's not obvious that this structure should be seen as more fixed than the Bloc was, given how the ADQ did and the unpopularity of the two leaders. But I realize it's not likely - just speculating here. And I agree that Mulcair will in fact stay federal.

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, isn't it a bit odd that Layton and Chow are both MPs?  Clearly they can't have the same "home address" if they're both MPs.

They live in Trinity-Spadina. And Ignatieff lives in Toronto Centre, and Rae lives in Parkdale-High Park. You don't even have to pretend to have an address in the riding in Toronto, no-one cares about this.

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, isn't it a bit odd that Layton and Chow are both MPs?  Clearly they can't have the same "home address" if they're both MPs.

Canada doesn't require one to live in a seat to run for it. I'm not sure if they're even required to live in the province.

Ahh, I didn't realize that.  I'd still think it'd be hard to get elected if you don't live there.  Surely that must get brought up in the campaigns?

No, not a chance. If Layton decided to run in the Yukon it would be a different story, but within Toronto no-one cares about this.

The political culture about this issue is different in Canada - often parties will try to find a safe seat for "star" candidates even if they live elsewhere, and there's a tradition of the leader of a party running in a safe seat when they lose even if it's nowhere near their home. In addition to Day as Xahar mentioned, Tommy Douglas ran in a by-election in Burnaby BC immediately after losing in Regina.

When Jean Chrétien came back to lead the Liberals after some time in the private sector and his seat was taken, the Liberal member for Beauséjour NB resigned to let Chrétien in, and they elected him even though it was revealed that he had advised during the 1980 referendum that: "if Quebec separates, it will become an armpit, like New Brunswick".

[Linus Van Pelt]

Langley/Abbotsford is basically the Canadian Colorado Springs - Focus on the Family Canada is based in Langley, and Abbotsford has the highest % answering just "Christian" on the census, basically a proxy for Evangelicals.

[Linus Van Pelt]

City of Toronto (counting Pickering-Scarborough East as .5): NDP 8, Con 7.5, Lib 7. Wow.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I know this is the sort of thing no-one will believe you about after the fact, but I was actually thinking a few days ago that the Tamils in Scarborough-Rouge River could be a bit of a wild card, since this whole boat people/human smuggling issue was basically about them, putting them at the centre of certain issues and greatly increasing their interest in Canadian politics when before they had been just another marginalized taken-for-granted group in the inner Toronto suburbs.

[Linus Van Pelt]

If I might be allowed the first native speaker intervention into this incredibly confused discussion, the issue is the third (i.e. last) syllable, which internationals pronounce as a schwa "a" like in "Maria" but which Anglophone Canadians pronounce as "-aw". As I am from Ontario, "Ottawa" rhymes in my idiolect with "saw", "macaw", etc.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yes, if you're a posh southern Englander (or a continental English teacher trying to emulate such), it's less like "law" than, well, "far"

[Linus Van Pelt]

Also, ilikeverin, in Canadian English "Howard" does not start with the same vowel as "house" or "doubt" (except the verb "house" with the voiced consonant). Canadian English raising before voiceless consonants is one of the its most distinctive features, hence all the "aboot" jokes.

[Linus Van Pelt]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oXW9wlieZO8

The new MP for Davenport and the re-elected MP for Timmins--James Bay, in a punk band together in 1983.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.

Where exactly am I wrong?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Old_Toronto_locator.png

It doesn't correspond so neatly to current riding boundaries; significant parts of Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West are south of the line.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm not too sure what they're doing in the interval between releasing poll results to the select few and releasing them to the general public, but anyway, the Vancouver Sun has poll maps (comparing 2008 and 2011) for Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca, Vancouver South, and Newton-North Delta.

In the two suburban Victoria ridings the Liberal areas just went en masse to the competitive non-Conservative party, while Newton-North Delta retains its interesting geographical polarization.

(Moderator: I know the situation with these polls is a bit of a mess, so feel free to move this post into a 2011 poll maps thread when a clear one gets started if you like).

[Linus Van Pelt]

It really is remarkable how badly the Conservatives suck in non-Jewish Montreal.

Mont Royal
L - 50.3%
N - 22.1%
C - 18.3%
O - 9.3%

34% home language English, median family income $112,000, two most common occupational categories are "management occupations" (21%) and "business, finance & administrative occupations" (20%). Cotler would be totally finished if the Conservatives were even at vaguely normal numbers for a place like this.

And then there's:

Baie D'Urfe
L - 40.8%
C - 30.5%
N - 22.4%
O - 6.3%

74% home language English, median family income $194,000, and it's people who choose to live in deepest West Island suburbia instead of in a fancy historic home in Westmount in proximity to art galleries, chic restaurants etc. I mean, come on.