Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
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October 19, 2021, 12:43:39 AM

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  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124270 times)
Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« on: May 04, 2011, 07:49:49 AM »

Why did the Tories do so well in New Brunswick? They won 8/10 seats. The last three elections they won 6, 3 and 2 seats respectively. I heard 2008 was due to Dion's Green Tax Shift, but why did it get even worse for them, especially since the Liberal vote held up quite well in the rest of Atlantic Canada?
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2011, 07:55:06 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2011, 08:09:20 AM by Nichlemn »

Ominous trends for Liberal Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal (Pierre Trudeau's old seat, once considered the most Liberal in Canada):

1999 by-election: 92%
2000: 81%
2004: 76%
2006: 65%
2008: 56%
2011: 41%

Cotler beat the Conservative in 2011 by just under 6 points. If the Liberals continue to degenerate, is Mount Royal a reasonably likely Conservative pick-up in 2015?


Also, anyone else have some interesting riding trivia?
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2011, 06:01:38 AM »

Quebec votes and seats:

NDP - 42.9% - 58 seats
BQ - 23.4% - 4 seats
Con - 16.5% - 6 seats
Liberal - 14.2% - 7 seats

lol FPTP, 2nd-4th vote/seat rankings are inverted.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2011, 10:54:53 PM »

It's quite fun to read some of the Wikipedia articles on regional results. Some fun ones:

Montérégie

Every single seat changed party hands in three elections in the last thirty years.

Went 8-0 Liberal in 1979 and 1980, then went 8-0 and 9-0 PC in 1984 and 1988 respectively. It then went 8 Bloc/1 Liberal in 1993 and hovered around that amount through 2008. Then in 2011, it went 9-0 NDP.

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Went 9-0 Liberal in 2006, then 7-2 Liberal in 2008, then 9-0 Conservative in 2011.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2011, 10:53:29 PM »

The emphasis on regional balance is somewhat worrying. I get the feeling that if the Conservatives won a single seat with a total moron in Montreal, said moron would nonetheless be a shoo-in for Cabinet.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2011, 11:47:19 PM »

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

I was considering writing something like "actually intellectually challenged as opposed to just disliked on partisan grounds", but that would be long and you'd still probably think there were some.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2011, 08:39:45 AM »

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2011, 10:26:01 PM »

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.

Here it is by province.  Actually the Tories got above 50% in 107 out of the 166 seats they won so there were many areas where they won by big margins.  If you take Quebec out of the picture they got 48% in English Canada.  Off course much of that has to do with the fact they are the sole party on the right whereas the left is far more divided.

NL  Lib 4 NDP 2 CON 1 Lib 38%, NDP 33%, CON 28%
NS  CON 4 LIB 4 NDP 3  CON 37% NDP 30% LIB 29%
PEI LIB 3 CON 1  CON 41% LIB 41% NDP 15% (despite winning only one seat the Conservatives actually got 173 votes more than the Liberals in PEI)
NB CON 8 NDP 1 LIB 1 CON 44% NDP 30% LIB 23%
QC NDP 59 LIB 7 CON 5 BQ 4 NDP 43% BQ 23% CON 17% LIB 14%
ON CON 73 NDP 22 LIB 11 CON 44% NDP 26% LIB 25% (Note, Etobicoke Centre which the Conservatives won by 25 votes over the Liberals is still in the process of a recount)
MB CON 11 NDP 2 LIB 1 CON 54% NDP 26% LIB 16%
SK CON 13 LIB 1 CON 56% NDP 32% LIB 9%
AB CON 27 NDP 1 CON 67% NDP 17% LIB 9%
BC CON 21 NDP 12 LIB 2 GRN 1 CON 46% NDP 33% LIB 13% GRN 7%
NORTH CON 2 (YK and NU), NDP 1 (NT)

I was talking about those GTA regions, where the Tories did very well without particularly large vote margins. Obviously in Alberta they had a lot of surplus votes.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2011, 11:57:23 PM »

The Liberals were, generally, able to keep "English Canada" and Quebec happy at the same time - that is, outside the West. Given the current CPC dominance on the Prairies (3 opposition seats out of 56 total) I don't think that the threat of "losing the west" is a serious concern for the NDP.

What about BC? Or is that not what you think of when talking about the "West"?
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,924


« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2011, 09:52:09 AM »

Wow, I never expected it to be that quick. RIP.
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