Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

The equipment losses may be manageable depending on how quickly their older stockpiles can be brought online. Personnel losses are another matter, but full mobilisation could solve that problem, although it comes with its own risks and doesn’t make up for loss of experienced troops.

Are the stockpiles well maintained?  Can the Russians overcome a crappy supply chain?

Also, the Ukrainians are receiving much better longer range artillery with some highly accurate munitions, like the Excaliber.  Sure it'll take a few weeks to have that fully in place but that enables the Ukrainians to engage weapons before they even reach the front lines.

[Frodo]

How many Russians do you think will ultimately be killed over Ukraine?

At the rate they are going, probably as many as we ultimately lost during the Vietnam War before our eventual withdrawal.  And just as many wounded, captured, or MIA.  I never thought I'd say this, but this looks even worse than Afghanistan for them. 

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517489879634042882

A Ukrainian strike of Russian military vehicles parked next to buildings in Eastern Ukraine.  Quite notable for their accuracy.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Chad Vitaliy Kim vs. Virgin Vladimir Putin

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1517777769970683904?s=20&t=cMORxu...

So, just eye-balling pictures and behavior, it’s pretty consistent with ‘has arthritis, is on an aggressive steroid treatment’. So, no, unfortunately, Putin is probably not dying faster than any 70 year old man is dying.

[2952-0-0]

One other thought I had about the current price of RUB is that RUB-USD rate is actually deceptive since the USD itself has strengthened a lot last couple of months due to clear signs that the US Fed will raise interest rates aggressively this year.   If you look at RUB-JPY cross rate the RUB-JPY rate has surged is about the same as it was in 2018.  To be fair that is the result of Russia raising its short-term rates to 18% which clearly has hammered the economy in terms of removing liquidity from the economy.  But clearly, on this narrow metric, Biden's plans to reduce RUB to "rubble" has for now failed.

Dude, the Ruble isn't even a convertible currency right now. The Russian central bank banned sales of forex to Russian citizens last month. This means the official RUB rate is artificial. Just like in the Soviet times, the ruble is actually trading at a huge discount on the black market. So yes, the official RUB rate is indeed deceptive, but not in the way you imply.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
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[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
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Big if true. Overall, this entire war has already exposed the immense weakness of the Russian military. If NATO stepped in and the conflict would remain conventionally fought, Putin would get his a** handed in a matter of weeks.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1517822391279394816

Moscow has deported 500,000 people to Russia, Ukraine lawmaker says

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-has-deported-500000-people-russia-ukraine-lawmaker-says-2022-04-20/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
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Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

[Woody]

Back in the USSR: Lenin statues and Soviet flags reappear in Russian-controlled cities


Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/back-in-the-ussr-lenin-statues-and-soviet-flags-reappear-in-russian-controlled-cities?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

In the meantime, the Kremlin is consolidating control in Henichesk and other southern areas. Its tactics are intimidation, and co-option for those willing to serve Russian interests. Ukrainian officials, activists and journalists are being arrested. Some disappear.

The new authorities have shut down independent media outlets and turned off Ukrainian TV. They have switched on Russian propaganda channels broadcasting from Crimea.

Meanwhile, a purge of Ukrainian politicians is under way. The mayor of Henichesk, Oleksandr Tulupov, was last seen on 9 March. He and his colleagues posed for a photo in the town park next to a statue of Taras Shevchenko, Ukraine’s national poet. It was Shevchenko’s birthday. It is unclear if the mayor has shared the fate of other elected officials who have been abducted.

Residents told the Observer there had been a full-blown campaign to erase Ukraine’s national identity. Ukrainian flags have been ripped from civic buildings. In Melitopol teachers are being forced to use Russian and to teach the Kremlin’s school curriculum. The authorities have said some may need to be “retrained” in Crimea. Russian “military police” units have destroyed Ukrainian literature and textbooks.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
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First tweets of Michael Kofman's thread:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856534293848065?s=20&t=umYpST2_...

Thread reader link to the thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517856532976881664.html

[Storr]

Ukrainian attacks along the front lines from the Russian border to Izyum seemed like an obvious outcome. The Russian decision to leave Kharkiv in Ukrainian control has left their western flank long and exposed as they've advanced from the north into the Donbass through the important railroad junction of Kupyansk. If the Russians were to face a WWII-esque encirclement and subsequent catastrophic defeat, I'd expect it to be in this area. Though, it seems at this point that Ukraine is focused on slowing and halting the Russian offensive in the Donbass, instead of responding with large scale flaking offensives. Maybe if the Russian offensive is stalled and Russian strength is further degraded in the coming weeks, such an offensive would be considered.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1517823220275163138?s=20&t=y5x7dp...

Map of the exposed Russian flank in Kharkiv Oblast:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1517629449428033536?s=20&t=umYpST2_...

[Silent Hunter]

National mobilisation would take weeks, if not months, to make any appreciable impact.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
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Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

The easiest thing politically would be to do neither. I full expect Putin to just keep declaring everything is going to plan even after all his forces are spent.

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3275829-yellen-european-ban-on-russian-energy-may-do-more-harm-than-good/

"Yellen: European ban on Russian energy may do more harm than good"

It is clear what she is really afraid of is another surge in energy prices will push up USA inflation which in turn will make the Fed get even more aggressive in raising rates leading to a recession in the USA.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

Unfortunately, as we’ve seen repeatedly in this war, “thinks he can” and “can” are very different things. And he (or possibly some people around him) think they’re just one big blow away from the long-promised total victory. So I fully expect him to declare full mobilization, and send either aging or very young and poorly-trained and equipped conscripts into the Donbas meat-grinder. And Ukraine has also declared full mobilization, has shown it has more than enough motivation to fight, and is going to get more and better weapons from the west as the war goes on.

[Storr]

Spray 'n Pray:

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1517960828020047873?s=20&t=UdP_kQa...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

National mobilisation would take weeks, if not months, to make any appreciable impact.

Ukraine mobilized 2 months ago, I wonder how it's going. It takes many months to train and equip a new mobilized army.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

[Storr]

When Russian propaganda mentions 'slavic brotherhood', I don't think this is what they had in mind.

https://twitter.com/MENAConflicted/status/1517938302032257026?s=20&t=QeHHUE_...

[Torie]

The New Nuclear Reality.

Not the best written article (written by the way by the daughter of my tax professor in Law School whom I adored - what a wonderful man), but it makes for depressing reading. I am concerned for you all that are not as near to death's door as I. It is so sad really. No matter how educated we get, no matter how marvelous our technology, we are nevertheless a very flawed species that needs rewiring, least it blows up the planet.

The thing is, is that Russia is a declining power. It's only claim to "greatness" now is nukes. And one cannot submit to nuclear blackmail. That in itself would be curtains. You submit once, and it's game over. So the nukes in that sense are unusable - unless the guy with the finger on the button from his perspective, thinks the options available to him other than using nukes are all worse. And therein lies the problem. And even if Putin exits the stage without the unleashing of nukes, more Putin's will appear in due time in similar circumstances to replace him on the stage. And over time, nukes will get ever better and deadlier than ever.


Have a great evening.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-new-nuclear-reality

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1517979893283360769

[2952-0-0]

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

1) We'll have to see for how long that the EU is willing to continue importing Russian oil and gas. The Germans don't care that the gas they use comes from Russia - just that it comes from somewhere. They're even willing to import more from countries like Algeria, Qatar, and Angola, which aren't renowned for their human rights. That's what makes Russia so vulnerable at this point: most of its exports are commodities.

2) Of course, Boris Johnson is saying that Russia could win this war, because he can't allow complacency to set in.

3) The German intellectuals claiming that Ukraine should surrender are old and increasingly marginalized figures of the 68 generation. They, at best, represent an idealist faction within the SPD. They don't even represent German industrialists who might want to resume business with Russia. Astonishingly, the German party that's the most hawkish on Russia is...the Green Party.

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

I think this is a not entirely accurate narrative. Even if Putin magically threw his hands up and said "OK fine the west wins, we're entirely leaving Ukraine", there will not be a return to business as usual. At best, foreign investors will view Russia like they view Argentina or Venezuela. At best. And the longer this situation drags on, the less the potential value of Russia to even the greediest industrialist.

Elsewhere, you see that governments are willing to sacrifice short-term economic interests for long-term political agendas. Trump's trade and economic war against China was his only policy that enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington - despite the billions it cost many US companies. Biden continued Trump's policy with gusto, and was more effective in rallying other first-world economies in joining the policy which Trump started. And that is far more consequential than the EU importing Russian oil and gas.

More likely, it will be globalization-but-on-our-terms. European governments will definitely encourage their companies to set up low-cost manufacturing in Ukraine when peace returns, probably even encouraging them to leave China for that purpose. I can see a future US government actively encouraging its companies to move their low-cost manufacturing to Latin America for a similar purpose (it's already happening - the new NAFTA triggered a boom in industrial real estate in northern Mexico). Geopolitically unfriendly countries like China and Russia would be deliberately frozen out of the full benefits of globalization, and their elites are told they will only enjoy these if they undertake domestic political liberalization.

Of course, that policy will be inconsistently applied and is politically manipulative. But, such is politics.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bykaleahall/status/1517573309755498496

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518028419652628482