GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires
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Author Topic: GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires  (Read 144964 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2025 on: December 01, 2022, 03:49:09 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on December 01, 2022, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: prag_prog on December 01, 2022, 02:50:14 PM
This thread summarizes current EV data quite well -


TLDR: Atleast so far, Dem precints turnout has been better than GOP precints

I disagree with his notion that Forsyth’s trends are such that it will be the second most likely metro county to flip after Fayette. I think Spalding has that title locked down.

I think Fayette is on track to flip next week though.

Forsyth is trending Dem way faster than Spalding, even though the latter is closer.

If Fayette flips next week then Walker’s chances at winning are close to non-existent.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2026 on: December 01, 2022, 04:56:12 PM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2027 on: December 01, 2022, 05:12:59 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow breaks a record, though.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2028 on: December 01, 2022, 05:21:52 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on December 01, 2022, 05:12:59 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow breaks a record, though.

I fully expect tomorrow will be 400k. Lines are going to be nightmarish in the metro and probably in a lot of other dense-ish places as well. Looks like we'll end up slightly north of 1.8m EV ballots cast by CoB tomorrow.

I'm thinking we may end up at 280k today: that includes ABMs, which Sterling doesn't report in his tweets throughout the day; we've had 25k or so ABMs each day for the past 2 days, and that number will continue to grow today, tomorrow and throughout the weekend.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2029 on: December 01, 2022, 06:56:39 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2022, 07:13:12 PM by Adam Griffin »
I thought 280k for today, but hell, we might hit 300k once this is all said and done (I expect at least 30k ABMs on top of this figure + whatever vote comes in from post-5 PM EV counties).

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2030 on: December 01, 2022, 07:26:38 PM »


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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2031 on: December 01, 2022, 07:43:48 PM »
Either Obama needs a future in insult comedy or the jokes at Walker's expense are just too easy.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #2032 on: December 01, 2022, 07:48:27 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on December 01, 2022, 06:56:39 PM
I thought 280k for today, but hell, we might hit 300k once this is all said and done (I expect at least 30k ABMs on top of this figure + whatever vote comes in from post-5 PM EV counties).


what's the deadline for ABMs ? Can they drop them off on Tuesday ?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2033 on: December 01, 2022, 08:01:44 PM »
Quote from: prag_prog on December 01, 2022, 07:48:27 PM
Quote from: Adam Griffin on December 01, 2022, 06:56:39 PM
I thought 280k for today, but hell, we might hit 300k once this is all said and done (I expect at least 30k ABMs on top of this figure + whatever vote comes in from post-5 PM EV counties).


what's the deadline for ABMs ? Can they drop them off on Tuesday ?

Yes, they can be dropped off until the polls close at 7pm Tuesday.  That means dropped in a dropbox, although a voter could also bring their absentee to the polls and have it "spoiled" and then vote in person.

7pm Tuesday is also the deadline for ballots to be received by mail, with (I believe) an exception for overseas/military ballots, which may be received up to three days later as long as they're postmarked by Election Day.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2034 on: December 01, 2022, 08:04:58 PM »
MTG's district, lol:
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2035 on: December 01, 2022, 08:22:10 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on December 01, 2022, 08:04:58 PM
MTG's district, lol:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2036 on: December 01, 2022, 08:30:00 PM »
Rain in NoGA?
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swf541
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« Reply #2037 on: December 01, 2022, 08:59:10 PM »


So with mail, looks like over 300k today
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Holmes
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« Reply #2038 on: December 01, 2022, 11:00:43 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on December 01, 2022, 08:04:58 PM
MTG's district, lol:



I don't believe in God, but if he does exist, he must hate Michigan.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2039 on: December 02, 2022, 09:21:10 AM »
1,472,517 EV

54.7% white
32.3% black
1.6% hispanic
1.7% asian
0.2% Native American
9.5% other

Another strong day for Dems. Black share was about ~29% yesterday. I would imagine it will be at least 30% if not more today for the final day, so final black share of the EV will probably stay around ~32% (compared to 29% in the general)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2040 on: December 02, 2022, 09:34:46 AM »
Do we know if there will be an exit poll on Tuesday?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2041 on: December 02, 2022, 09:39:38 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on December 02, 2022, 09:21:10 AM
1,472,517 EV

54.7% white
32.3% black
1.6% hispanic
1.7% asian
0.2% Native American
9.5% other

Another strong day for Dems. Black share was about ~29% yesterday. I would imagine it will be at least 30% if not more today for the final day, so final black share of the EV will probably stay around ~32% (compared to 29% in the general)

Considering Warnock got the most votes in the November electorate, this looks really good for him.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2042 on: December 02, 2022, 10:18:16 AM »
L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now
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Spectator
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« Reply #2043 on: December 02, 2022, 10:38:16 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on December 02, 2022, 10:18:16 AM
L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now



Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2044 on: December 02, 2022, 10:52:02 AM »
The 538 polling average is now live

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/georgia/runoff/
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prag_prog
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« Reply #2045 on: December 02, 2022, 11:37:07 AM »
I think today's turnout is going to be around 360K
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #2046 on: December 02, 2022, 11:50:49 AM »
Quote from: Spectator on December 02, 2022, 10:38:16 AM

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.
And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #2047 on: December 02, 2022, 12:04:04 PM »
Quote from: Rookie Yinzer on December 02, 2022, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: Spectator on December 02, 2022, 10:38:16 AM

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.
And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.

I don't think using primary participation is an accurate representation of how voters are likely to vote in the runoff. I typically vote in the R primaries and know a number of Warnock voters that do as well. I do this because for most local elections, the primary election is more competitive than the general election, and I want to have a say in who will end up representing me.

Also, GA doesn't have partisan registration, but if it did, I don't think Raffensberger would have won his primary (without a runoff at least) if it were closed to Is and Ds.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #2048 on: December 02, 2022, 12:07:42 PM »
Yeah this is looking like a landslide… at least by GA standards
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #2049 on: December 02, 2022, 12:41:35 PM »
This video commercial is hilarious.
Take a look ...
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