GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[brucejoel99]

C'mon electoral gods, just gimme a Perdue vs. Collins vs. MTG primary, pretty please & thank you!

[brucejoel99]

Tossup/Tilt R if he's the nominee. He only lost by 1.2% against Ossoff.

A point more than Trump lost by. David Perdue is a weak candidate and certified loser, Republicans should pick someone else that at least would be actually liked by their base.

Shhh, don't give them ideas!

[brucejoel99]

(I realize no one is listening)

But in a strong R year, this race is Lean R right now depending upon how fast Georgia is trending blue

Perdue was the only one that would make this Lean R

There’s not even funny to say about it anymore, this is just a weird obsession with this state.

Alternatively, a combination of masochism, self-reverse psychology, & superstition.

[brucejoel99]

Politico's reporting that Loeffler (& obviously Collins) are also considering challenges against Warnock:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/15/perdue-2022-warnock-georgia-469075

Loeffler is also considering running again in a rematch against Warnock, as is former Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), who finished third in the special election in November.

A Perdue vs. Loeffler vs. Collins vs. MTG primary would be completely f**king insane. How do y'all think it would turn out?

[brucejoel99]

Can't wait for the "Perdue will win suburbanites in Cobb County" memes again

SUBURBAN TITAN DAVID PERDUE will destroy(!) RADICAL LIBERAL RAPHAEL WARNOCK !!!1!

[brucejoel99]

Lol that was fast. Damn though, I really wanted to watch the sh*tshow that would've been a Perdue/Loeffler/Collins/MTG primary.

[brucejoel99]

Will Sonny Perdue run?

Probably not but it's funny that you bring him up because ironically enough, a rumor about him considering primarying Kemp popped up last week, but Perdueworld quickly denied it:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-floodgates-open-on-gop-election-bills/RUAX6FZJN5HZJHYTD2JWU5JLY4/

'Tis the season for campaign trial balloons. But there's one rumor we might be able to pop before it's even been floated.

There's scattered buzz in Georgia political circles about a comeback attempt by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, the former agriculture secretary for former President Donald Trump, challenging Gov. Brian Kemp.

It would make quite the storyline, especially if cousin David Perdue also decides to run for U.S. Senate next year. Sonny Perdue was once one of Kemp's biggest champions and appointed him as secretary of state in 2010.

But we're told by three people close to the former governor that he has no plans to challenge Kemp, and that they recently had lunch together to catch up.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1371896223767130117?s=20

He was an ally of Doug Collins, so might that indicate that the latter is running for Governor?

[brucejoel99]

Herschel Walker says publicly that he is considering a challenge to Warnock:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1381254852743925762?s=21

His candidacy will go over about as well as Angela Stanton-King's campaign against John Lewis/Nikema Williams did.

[brucejoel99]

Curious question, what was the last cycle the Georgia GOP actually made gains in? Dems improved here from 2012-14 even while collapsing nationwide, 2014-16, 2016-18, 2018-20 all had Dems improve their numbers. People overrate demographic change all the time but in Georgia new voters in 2021-22 will be an obstacle for GOP on top of recent trends.

2010-12, comparing their cycle's elections with the highest turnout: GA-GOV & GA-PRES, respectively.

[brucejoel99]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Oh good christ you cannot be serious

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it's just been some type of absurdist performance art all along.

[brucejoel99]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

[brucejoel99]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

So in short, they are substantially more popular, as is the President, then when they won their seats?

Yes.

[brucejoel99]

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.

*December, now. The new election overhaul law moved federal run-offs back to early December, with military & overseas voters being sent an instant-runoff ranked choice absentee ballot - like Louisiana does - in order to comply with UOCAVA.

[brucejoel99]

Very smart to remind people that you do NOT currently live in Georgia and have lived in Texas *for decades* yet think you're entitled to represent Georgia in the Senate...

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1405530018902511616

Walker was born and raised in Wrightsville, Georgia. He has played for the University of Georgia where he broke records. He has represented Georgia on the national spotlight as an athlete. Meanwhile Warnock was to busy driving over his wife's foot and preaching hate sermons.

Meanwhile, Warnock is the incumbent Class III Senator from GA, which means you're not supposed to be on here, coward.

[brucejoel99]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President

No, I objectively don't remember there being any point in time at which Fred Thompson was gonna be President.

[brucejoel99]

And when this doesn't work out, he can run for the Senate again in 2024 by primarying Cruz back where he actually lives.

[brucejoel99]

Something tells me Herschel Walker's not gonna be the next Senator from Georgia y'all.

https://twitter.com/BrianSlodysko/status/1418616454270885892

CTE is evidently a helluva drug.

[brucejoel99]

Walker's response (& a TLDR):

https://twitter.com/sylturner/status/1577075469790326784

[brucejoel99]

So does anybody know the rules on replacing a senate candidate in Georgia?

I suspect it’s too late already.

Indeed:

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1577115735708487681

[brucejoel99]

Imagine so clearly declaring your desire to burn in hell:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1577255865652228097

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1577664623960023041

[brucejoel99]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1578448912104521729

[brucejoel99]

His poor son…

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1597028177255501824